Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

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Dwyane Wade is in Chicago right now for the 3rd annual “Wade’s World” charity weekend. The festivities include a benefit dinner, a kick-off party, school visits, a bowling party, a youth summit and a school supply giveaway. But the event that D.Wade really wanted to promote was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday night at the Harris Theater at Millenium Park. (For tickets or information call 312-334-7777 or visit www.harristheaterchicago.org. All proceeds go towards the Wade’s World Foundation.) Go to the foundation’s website for more information about the weekend’s festivities and events.

D.Wade took a few minutes out of his busy schedule to chat with The Scores Report about the weekend, what it was like to win an Olympic gold medal and where he might sign next summer.

TSR: D. Wade. How are you doing?

DW: I’m good, boss. I’m good.

TSR: It’s a pleasure to talk to one of the best – if not the best – basketball players on the planet.

DW: Aw, well, I appreciate that.

TSR: I saw your itinerary for this “Wade’s World” Weekend and it looks like you are about to present a check to the William Leonard Public Library. What does it mean for you to be able to give back to your hometown?

DW: It means a lot. Whether it’s a big contribution or a small contribution to be able to give back to not only my hometown and my community, but to others as well. I’ve been very blessed and I think it’s my job to continue to help others that are in dire need, like the William Leonard Public Library in Robbins.

TSR: There’s a jam-packed weekend of activities. One thing I wanted to ask you about was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday. Can you tell me a little bit about that?

DW: Yeah, you look at the whole weekend and we’ve got many different events going on. Some of them you’re going to have fun and some of them are fundraisers, but I think the biggest thing is the one that Gatorade really got behind was the “Chicago Has Talent” because it’s showcasing our kids and giving them an opportunity in life. I think we’re going to have between 10-15 different groups of kids perform in front of a crowd of around 1,000 people, and get a chance to showcase their talent. And the top 3 will get an opportunity to do some special things, but the winner is going to go on and do some great things and get an opportunity to be seen. I think our job is to give them that chance and that hope that they can do it. So I’m looking forward to it. I can’t wait until that Saturday event. That’s probably the biggest event to me of the week of all the things we’re doing.

TSR: That’s at the Harris Theater at 7:00 PM at Millenium Park and tickets (which start at $15) are available.

DW: Yeah, that’s at the Harris Theater and it’s just after we get done with a youth summit where we have a panel full of celebrities and powerful, important people in the community, and they get to talk to kids for a couple of hours about violence and sex, and about so many different topics, and that’s actually right before the show.

TSR: And that’s at the UIC Forum at 725 W. Roosevelt Road.

DW: Yeah.

TSR: So do you mind if I ask you a couple of basketball-related questions?

DW: Sure.

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Per the NY Times…

“I want to be in Miami, and I hope everything works out that way,” Wade said Thursday. “I want to be one of those players that stays with one franchise for his entire career.”

“Next year will be a big year for myself and for the team, but the plan has always been to stay with the Heat, and that’s still the plan,” he said. “I think everything will work out.”

The NY Post went a step further, asking Wade if the Knicks or Nets had a chance of signing him.

And while admitting the Heat were still the favorites, for his services, he pretty much dashed any hope of the Nets or Knicks getting him. After saying firmly “The Heat” as the frontrunner, he was asked point blank if the Nets or Knicks had a chance.

“Not in my mind. I’m not thinking about the Knicks or the Nets. Only when we play them,” Wade said.

In a piece about which teams will project to have a lot of cap space next summer, I wrote this about the Heat…

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

There might be a little chicken and the egg thing going on here. In order for the Heat to attract a top free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, they need to have a commitment from Dwyane Wade that he’ll re-sign. (Last summer, Baron Davis learned this the hard way when Elton Brand bolted for Philly.) But in order to get Wade to re-sign, he needs to know that there’s help on the way.

Right now, the Nets (with a nice core of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the Knicks (great market) look to be the two biggest threats to stealing Wade away. In his own words, he doesn’t think there’s much of a chance of that happening.

But a lot can happen in a year.

ESPN’s Chad Ford wrote a good article [Insider subscription required] about how the Knicks’ rebuilding plan has shaped up thus far.

They successfully shed Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford, Zach Randolph and Jerome James. But Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries are still on the roster, and their contracts will eat up cap space in 2010. Surprisingly GM Donnie Walsh passed up a chance to trade Jeffries for Kenny Thomas’s expiring contract at the trade deadline. I have no idea why he would do that.

The Knicks also did a great job of wooing Mike D’Antoni to New York. Players love to play in his up-tempo system and he has a number of connections to NBA stars given his stint as assistant coach for Team USA.

But Ford writes that “phase 3″ of the plan has hit a few snags:

The plan was to restock the Knicks’ talent pool via the draft. Rookies have low salaries and high upside, and given the Knicks’ lack of talent the team hoped it could strike gold once or twice in the draft. While it’s still very early, things haven’t gone according to plan so far. The Knicks’ top targets the past two years have been off the draft board when they drafted.

In 2008, their two favorites — Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo — were gone, so they settled for Danilo Gallinari. While Gallinari showed enormous promise in Europe, he hurt his back in the summer league and played sparingly for the Knicks in his rookie season while he tried to rehab. Meanwhile, the Knicks passed on several prospects in the ‘08 draft — like Brook Lopez, Eric Gordon and Anthony Randolph — who look like potential stars down the road.

In 2009, Walsh and D’Antoni had their hearts set on Davidson shooting star Stephen Curry. However, the Warriors took him one place ahead of the Knicks, who settled on Arizona forward Jordan Hill. While Hill has upside, too, he’s closer to Dale Davis than Amare Stoudemire.

And what about 2010? In 2005, Isiah agreed to send that first-round pick to Phoenix as part of the Marbury trade. The Suns then traded it to Utah. There are no protections left on the pick. It’s gone.

Isn’t it a little ironic that the Knicks are struggling at the one thing (finding talent in the draft) that Isiah Thomas was good at? Gallinari may still turn out to be a player, but I’m sure Knicks fans would trade him for any number of players that the team passed up. Ford mentioned Lopez, Gordon and Randolph, but what about D.J. Augustin or Jason Thompson?

While I like Jordan Hill, it seems a little counter intuitive to draft a power forward when you already have David Lee on the roster and are potentially targeting Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer. However, the Knicks probably view Bosh and Stoudemire as potential centers in D’Antoni’s system.

To draft Hill, the Knicks passed up Brandon Jennings, who turned in a very good summer league performance for the Bucks and has the kind of speed, quickness and vision to be a nightmare on the fast break. The team has been flirting with Ramon Sessions (also of the Bucks), but has yet to come to terms on a deal even though Milwaukee put themselves in a tough position to match any offer greater than $2 or $3 million per season. As it stands, the Knicks don’t have a point guard to run D’Antoni’s system.

And, as Ford writes, the Knicks’ plans have soured with the economy. If they are able to move both Jeffries and Curry, they would have enough to sign two max-contract players, but even then, it would be tough to fill out the roster with the limited funds available. It’s looking more and more that the Knicks aren’t going to have the talent to attract LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. Forgetting about D’Antoni and Madision Square Garden for a moment, wouldn’t LeBron and Wade, assuming they change teams, rather play in Brooklyn with Devin Harris and Brook Lopez?

ESPN’s Chad Ford lists nine teams that will have significant cap space next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

1. Nets ($25-$27 million)
2. Knicks ($24 million, assuming they don’t sign anyone for longer than a year)
3. Heat ($20-$22 million)
4. Timberwolves ($16-$18 million)
5. Bulls ($13-$15 million minus whatever they give Tyrus Thomas)
6. Thunder ($14-$15 million)
7. Rockets ($12-$14 million minus whatever they give to Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes)
8. Clippers ($10-$11 million)
9. Kings ($9-$10 million)

This assumes a cap of $53.6 million, which is an optimistic view. The cap could drop below $50 million.

It takes about $14 million of space to sign a max-contract player, so even under these optimistic circumstances, there really are only five teams — the Nets, Knicks, Heat, T-Wolves and Thunder — that will have that kind of space. (The Bulls are likely to keep Thomas and the Rockets are likely to retain Landry and Hayes, though they could make another move here or there to put them in position to add a superstar.)

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

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Now that the dust has pretty much settled in the 2009 NBA offseason, ESPN’s Chad Ford previews the free agents that are likely to be available next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

No subscription? Check out our preview from last December. I plan to update it once this year’s restricted free agents are settled, as there are still a few looking for long-term deals.

Right now, it’s looking like the 2010 unrestricted free agent class could include the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Paul Pierce, David Lee, Manu Ginobili, Shaquille O’Neal, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, Tyson Chandler, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Ramon Sessions, Ray Felton, Nate Robinson, Travis Outlaw, John Salmons and Al Harrington.

I expect at least a few of those names will strike long-term deals before next summer, but still, that’s quite the list, and it doesn’t even include the potential restricted free agents from the draft class of 2006 (i.e. Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay, etc.)

The new salary cap figure is out, and it dipped slightly from last season.

The new figures for 2009-10 just announced by the league have set the salary cap at $57.7 million per team — down $1 million from $58.7 from 2008-09 — and the luxury-tax threshold at $69.9 million.

More importantly, the league is projecting a much bigger drop (as much as $8 million) heading into the 2010 season.

The official league memorandum, obtained by ESPN.com, forecasts a dip in basketball-related income in the 2009-10 season of 2.5 percent to 5 percent, which threatens to take the 2010-11 cap down some $5 million to $8 million from last season’s $58.7 million salary cap.

A significant drop for the luxury-tax threshold is also projected going into the summer of 2010. If basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million. If BRI, as it is referred to in the NBA, decreases by five percent, teams would be looking at a $50.4 million salary cap and a luxury-tax line of $61.2 million in 2010-11.

What does this mean? Well, a team like the New York Knicks, who are projected to have a payroll of about $23 million heading into 2010 would have had about $35 million to spend had the cap stayed at $58 million. That’s plenty of money to sign to superstars. If the cap drops $5-$8 million, it means that they’re projected cap space will be in the $27-$30 million range. That makes signing two “max” players quite tough.

This is probably good news for teams looking to retain their superstars, since they can go over the cap to re-sign players. If the cap does indeed drop to $50 million, it would increase the chances of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson staying put.

The short answer is…maybe.

Have you noticed how all of this LeBron-to-the-Knicks talk has died down as the Cavs put up the best record in the NBA this season? That’s because Cleveland is a favorite to make the Finals, and with the way the Lakers are struggling against the Rockets out West, the Cavs are looking more and more like an NBA champion. If they do manage to win a title this year (or next), it will be very difficult for LeBron to jump ship without looking like a total a-hole. So he won’t. If he wins a ring, he’ll stay in Cleveland.

So the Knicks will have to look elsewhere for their superstar — enter Dwyane Wade. As Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel writes, the Big Apple would be an attractive destination for Wade.

The Knicks have the money. They have the allure. They have coach Mike D’Antoni’s fun style. They can tell Wade he would revive Knicks basketball and get the kind of spotlight only New York offers such stars. Who wouldn’t be tempted by all that?

So Hyde advocates that instead of waiting for 2010 and trying to add a star big man like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire while at the same time re-signing Wade, the Heat should go ahead and trade Michael Beasley to Toronto for Bosh this summer.

So there’s the Armageddon scenario for the Heat: It advances only slightly next year, misses on Bosh, has the Knicks singing a siren song to Wade … and loses him.

If you’re Riley, do you risk that? All for Beasley, who, much as I like him, posed as many questions as answers this season? Even Wade, who measures his words, allowed as to how Beasley frustrated him at times with the immaturity.

The best way to sign Wade this summer is to offer concrete evidence he can win big here. That means landing his friend, Bosh. They were Olympians together. They share the same agent. They respect each other greatly.

That’s why the smartest move to make is trading the salary-matching pair of Beasley and Mark Blount to Toronto for Bosh.

It’s an attractive scenario to wait until 2010 and add Bosh to a lineup that includes Wade and Beasley. But there’s a good chance that Bosh could sign with Cleveland or that the Knicks could come in and steal both Bosh and Wade away from the Heat. Why risk a future with Wade for the promise of Beasley? While it sounds a little crazy to trade a young player with a ton of upside for a guy you might be able to sign outright the next summer, it’s risk versus reward. A Wade/Bosh combo would guarantee the Heat would compete in the East for the next five years. Throw in the steady Udonis Haslem, a more mature Mario Chalmers and a small forward to be named later, and Heat would have a nice lineup. But the biggest reason the Heat should acquire Bosh is that it will almost guarantee that Wade re-ups as well.

Now the question is — will the Raptors go for it?

- SLAM says that Rasheed Wallace will retire if he doesn’t get at least $8 million to play next season. By my count, there are seven teams — Memphis, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Toronto, Portland and Minnesota — other than the Pistons that could give him that kind of money. Who would be interested in ‘Sheed? I’m guessing only teams that are on the verge of competing for a title and have a need for a big man with championship experience. The only “contenders” on that list are Atlanta and Portland, and neither seems to be a good fit. Portland already has a slender sharp-shooting big man in LaMarcus Aldridge, and the Hawks will likely spend their cap space on re-signing Mike Bibby (though that isn’t necessarily the right thing to do). So if Portland and Atlanta pass on Wallace, someone will offer him a mid-level deal (~$5.8 M) and he’ll have to decide if it’s worth it. Any team in the league can sign him for that, so if he lowers his price, demand will rise.

- Dwyane Wade reiterated that he will consider signing an extension once he’s eligible to on July 1st, but that he hasn’t given the idea much thought. The Heat would have a ton of cap space this summer had they held onto Shawn Marion and his expiring contract, but they instead traded for Jermaine O’Neal whom they thought would help their chances in the playoffs over the next two seasons. In the end, I doubt D-Wade will leave Miami. He’s a star there, the weather is great, and with Michael Beasley and a yet to be named big man (Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire) to be signed in the summer of 2010, the Heat have a good foundation for success. To me, the big question is whether or not Beasley can play small forward. If so, then the team should try to put together a starting lineup of Mario Chalmers, Wade, Beasley, Udonis Haslem and either Bosh or Amare.

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D-Wade thinks he and LeBron could end up playing for the same team in two years, but he doesn’t think it’s going to be for the Knicks.

Days after suggesting the possibility of becoming a teammate of LeBron James after the two become free agents in 2010, Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade shot down at least one potential destination for the star-studded tandem: New York.

Wade said Tuesday that he remains committed to the Heat for now and could see himself spending the rest of his career in Miami. But Wade also said he would explore all of his options should he elect to opt out of his contract and become a free agent in 2010, the same summer several of the NBA’s top players have options.

”Is it a possibility me and LeBron will play together? It’s always a possibility,” Wade said after the Heat’s practice Tuesday at AmericanAirlines Arena. “We’re both free agents. Is it a possibility I’m going to New York? That’s not a possibility in my mind.”

That’s the strongest stance yet Wade has taken on his potential free agency in 2010. His comments came on the heels of a New York Post story published Friday in which Wade was quoted as saying he and James could end up as teammates.

But Wade took exception to some of the comments attributed to him in the story and said Friday that he never implied that the two would play in New York.

It’s interesting that Wade admits that he plans to look at all of his options next summer (and who wouldn’t?) but goes out of his way to cross New York off the list of possible destinations. For a guy who is intent on keeping his options open, it seems odd to rule out the biggest market in the country.

Miami is an attractive place to play and my guess is that Wade ends up re-signing with the Heat, especially since they’ll have the cap space to sign a top tier free agent in the next two summers.