Well, I’m pretty sure the announcement for NFL MVP comes down this weekend, so let me begin by saying that I was not influenced by anything that I read when making these picks…..

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Brady, who is going to run away with this award, played about half a game last Sunday, and still threw for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 picks. He hasn’t thrown an interception since like early October.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Vick did Brady a favor by not being in the lineup against Dallas in Week 17, but he and his coach know what’s more important, and that is for him and some nagging injuries, resting up for the Packers.

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—He wound up third in yards (4620) and tied for second in TDs (33) but uncharacteristically threw for 22 interceptions.

4. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—4700 yards, 33 TDs, 17 picks. But most impressive is the way Peyton led his team to the postseason when things looked bleak.

5. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—Cassel had a dreadful game in Week 17, but we stand by the fact that this was a trio that helped a young KC team win their division and a 4-seed.

6. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—Not only did he lead the league in rushing (1616 yards), but Foster added a whopping 66 receptions for 604 more yards—giving him 2220 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs.

7. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Well, at 13-3, someone had to be good for them to get there, especially with all of those come from behind wins.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Finished with 3922/28/11 in 15 games, but what counts is leading his team to the postseason berth they deserve.

9. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—If they could do last year’s draft over again, do you think Matthews would still be picked at #26?

10. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—You know, he led the NFL in passing yards (4710) and had 30 TDs with 13 interceptions. He didn’t have Antonio Gates for a while, and he had Vincent Jackson for maybe two games. That’s why we can’t discount Rivers’ numbers.

11. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Bucs—We had to add one more. This kid is going to be a star. Oh wait, he already is. Freeman started every game and wound up with 3451 passing yards with 25 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions. By comparison, Eli Manning had more than FOUR times as many picks.

Here’s some fade material for your NFL weekend…

Saints @ Seahawks, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
I don’t have the stones to predict an outright win for the Seahawks and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to be accused of going against the grain just for the sake of going against the grain. Plus, I don’t think Seattle has enough weapons to slow down Sean Payton’s offense for four quarters. That said, I love the 10.5 points here. When I first saw the spread for this matchup, I racked my brain trying to figure out if I had ever seen a road team lay that many points in a playoff game before. I couldn’t think of one because there hasn’t been. The Seahawks are the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Look, this isn’t college football. It’s hard enough for a home team to cover as a double-digit favorite in the NFL, let alone a road team to cover such a large spread. And considering the Saints won’t be able to run the ball, the Seahawks should be able to keep this game somewhat close. Seattle is still one of the toughest environments to play in – I don’t care how poorly the Seahawks are performing. This one will be much, much closer than most people think.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +10.5

Jets @ Colts, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
By now, everyone is aware of the hold Peyton Manning has on Rex Ryan. He’s 5-1 against Ryan-led defenses and has thrown for 1,513 yards and 12 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. That said, I think the Jets will control the tempo of this game from the start and leave Manning on the sidelines. The best way to beat Peyton is to limit his opportunities to beat you. You’re never going to be able to completely shut him down (even in his four-interception game against the Chargers he still tossed two touchdown passes), but allowing him to speed up the tempo of the game is forbidden. He wants to have the ball in his hands so that he can attack your defense. Therefore, the Jets have to run the ball with success and grind the tempo of this game to a screeching halt. I expect this game to be boring and if it is, the Jets win outright.
THE PICK: JETS +2.5

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So Michael Vick slipped a little on Tuesday night, which makes us feel better about keeping Tommy Brady (as Charlie Weis calls him) in the top spot.

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Amazingly, Brady has thrown for an NFL record 319 pass attempts without an interception, going back to Week 6. So let’s review—3701 yards, 34 TDs (NFL high) and just 4 picks, and his team is 13-2 and in the fast lane in the AFC. Damn.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Look, we can’t disregard what Vick has done this season, because it’s phenomenal. But he looked mortal against the Vikings, and also for 52 minutes against the Giants before that.

3. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—This trio has led the Chiefs to the AFC West crown. Cassel has 27 TDs to 5 picks/Jamaal has 1835 all-purpose yards and Bowe leads all NFL receivers with 15 TDs. The league won’t view this as one person, but that doesn’t mean we can’t.

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—What, did you think the Saints were just going to go away? Not with this guy leading the team. But the 21 picks may hurt him in the voting.

5. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—This kid is just a beast week-in and week-out.

6. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Sure, the Falcons are impressive, especially some of the late-game heroics, but losing at home to Saints hurt.

7. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Rodgers admitted that sitting out with a concussion allowed him to come back fresh in Week 16—to the tune of 404 yards and 4 TDs.

8. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—Do you get the feeling you have to account for this dude as if he were Lawrence Taylor?

9. Donte Whitner, Buffalo Bills—136 total tackles (92 solo) with a sack, an interception, a forced fumble and 7 passes defensed. I know the Bills suck, but Whitner is a one-man wrecking crew.

10. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Look who’s back, and he even showed he can run—in slow motion, but he can run.

I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Chiefs would have collapsed by now and the Chargers would have overtaken the top spot in the AFC West. Kansas City has been in control of the division for most of the year but I’ve patiently waited for disaster to strike.

But it hasn’t. Perhaps I should have considered that their win over the Chargers in Week 1 wasn’t a fluke and this team is for real. But I didn’t. And they are.

Matt Cassel was brilliant in the Chiefs’ 34-14 win over the Titans on Sunday. He completed 24-of-34 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns, all while showing no ill effects from the appendectomy surgery he had three weeks ago. It’s amazing to think that at the start of the year, many people believed KC would have to search for a new quarterback in 2011 and now it appears that the Chiefs will only go as far as he takes them. Understandably, it took a while for him to get comfortable in Charlie Weis’ system but now that he is, the skies the limit for both him and KC. (It also doesn’t hurt that he has a couple of great weapons around him in Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe).

Granted, things could still turn sour for KC next week and seeing as how I have deemed them “for real,” the jinx has probably been set.

But as of this writing, the Chargers are losing at halftime to the Bengals, so it looks like the Chiefs are in good shape. If Cincinnati holds on, KC would win the AFC West for the first time since 2003. If San Diego mounts a comeback and wins, then the Chiefs would have to beat the Raiders next week or have San Diego lose at Denver.

Let’s assume for a second that the Chiefs do win the division and wrap up the No. 3 seed in the AFC. How far could this team go? Well, given how bad the Jets’ (who will have the No. 6 seed) defense has looked in recent weeks, it’s not a stretch to think that KC would move to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. And then, who knows? Nobody outside of the Patriots looks indestructible in the AFC so there’s a chance that this pesky Chiefs team could be the dark horse of the conference.

But first things first: they need to get in and then they can worry about seeding and opponents. Either way, the Chiefs continue to make noise.

I’m starting a new column and I’m calling it “I’m Just Saying.” Peter King has a column (Monday Morning Quarterback), so it only makes sense that a well-respected sports blogger like myself has a column as well.

What? I’m not well-respected? Who the hell is Anthony Stalter? Peter King is more established?

What-ev.

- Let’s hold off on the Giants-look-like-Super-Bowl-contenders-again talk after they beat a crap Redskins team. After their effort against the Eagles and Giants over the past few weeks, I’m fully convinced that Oregon could beat the Redskins on a neutral field.

- Hey Josh Freeman, I’d stay away from Brent Grimes the next time Atlanta comes to down. Dude is small but he’s often the most athletic player on the field.

- Lion fans are pissed about the unnecessary roughness penalty on Ndamukong Suh for the forearm shiver that he delivered to Jay Cutler’s back, but riddle me this, Batman: Was the play avoidable? Could Suh have chosen not to go GSP on Cutler and still gotten him down? What I’m asking is: Was it necessary roughness?

- I’m pretty sure I could think of two reasons not to start Brett Favre for every one reason that Leslie Fraizer comes up with. Let’s start with these: His touchdown to interception ratio this year is 10:17 and even after his effort on Sunday, one could make an argument that Ryan Fitzpatrick is better at this point in his career. That’s right – Ryan Fitzpatrick. So why not Tarvaris Jackson, Leslie?

- Is there any reason Marion Barber should get carries for the Cowboys with how good Felix Jones and Tashard Choice looked against the Colts? Sorry, is there any good reason I mean to write.

- You’re lucky the Colts wound up scoring anyway, Eric Foster.

- Hey Peyton: blue shirts, white helmets, my man.

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Nice find by Raw Sports, who found a quote from Dwayne Bowe and ran with it…

Bowe is quoted as saying this in regard to the SuperBowl, “Definitely we’re going to win it all. I can’t guarantee it, but I can tell you we’re going to win it all.”

Wait… what!?

I can’t guarantee it but we’re definitely winning it all… If you’re gonna make a dumbass guarantee at least go all the way! Don’t hedge on your comments and speak out of both sides of your mouth. That’s probably the WORST guarantee I’ve ever heard in my life! I’d rather he guarantee that they’re going to win every game from here on out or win each game by 40 or something completely ridiculous than this half-assed BS.

This used washing machine will work for a year. I can’t guarantee it, but I’m telling you it will work for at least a year. It will! No guarantees, though.

In a game only an Area Football fan could be proud of, the Broncos hammered the clueless Chiefs 49-29 on Sunday.

Matt Cassel threw for a career-high 469 yards and four touchdowns, while Kyle Orton threw for 296 yards and four scores. Neither quarterback was picked off, although it’s important to note that they were playing against air.

Dwayne Bowe’s assault on defensive backfields continued, as he caught 13 passes for 186 yards and two scores. He now has eight touchdowns in his last five games, which is enough to make any fantasy owner who dropped or traded him earlier in the year when he was laying goose eggs want to take a bath with a toaster.

With Kansas City’s loss, the AFC West is now up for grabs. The Chiefs and Raiders are now tied for first place at 5-4, while the Chargers (who we all know will win this juggernaut of a division with a 9-7 record when it’s all said and done) are 4-5. At 3-6, even the Broncos aren’t totally out of the picture if they can string a couple of wins together, and this is a team that gave up 59 points to Oakland three weeks ago.

Speaking of bad football, the Seahawks crushed the Cardinals 36-18 on Sunday. The win, coupled with a Rams’ loss to the 49ers (23-20 in overtime), puts Seattle back in first place at 5-4 in the NFC West. If you can find a worse division in football, let me know.

Sam Bradford put together a nice drive late in the fourth quarter to push the game into overtime. Of course, had St. Louis’ defense held on to a 7-point lead with about six minutes remaining in the game, the Rams wouldn’t had needed Bradford’s heroics. The Rams remain winless on the road this year.

Troy Smith has given the 49ers new life at quarterback. He completed 17-of-28 passes for 356 yards and one touchdown, while compiling a 116.7 QB rating. He also had a couple of touchdowns wiped off the board because of penalties. Despite their back-to-back wins, San Francisco remains a poorly coached team and Mike Singletary’s in-game management should continue to draw criticism from the media.

This was supposed to be the day that we figured out whether or not the Chiefs are for real. Their 3-0 record spoke for itself, but with wins over the Chargers (who have struggled on the road), Browns (who have struggled closing out games) and 49ers (who have just flat out struggled), nobody could say for sure whether or not Kansas City’s record was a farce.

And if you ask me now, I’d say I still don’t know.

Teams usually don’t frustrate Peyton Manning the way the Chiefs did today and lose. Peyton completed 26-of-44 passes for 244 yards in the Colts’ 19-9 victory, but he was also picked off once and spent most of the afternoon being tormented by Tamba Hali. Romeo Crennel (who has always had success against Manning) put together an impressive game plan and held Peyton to only 5.5 yards per pass.

But the Chiefs’ defense couldn’t overcome the stink that is Matt Cassel and the rest of KC’s offense, which includes receivers Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers, as well as offensive coordinator Charlie Weis.

Cassel, who has struggled every week thus far, completed just 16-of-29 passes for 156 yards. The running game, which rushed for 84 yards in the first half, could only generate 30 yards in the second as Thomas Jones could only muster 19 yards on eight carries.

The Chiefs’ defense is good enough to keep this team in contention every week. But unless they get a remarkably better effort out of Cassel and the rest of the offense, what transpired today at the RCA Dome will probably be the norm.

I hate writing intros and I don’t think many people read them anyway. There’s a good chance you’re not even reading this write now, so let’s just get on with it.

(Side Note: This list isn’t directed at fantasy football readers. If owners want to apply this information for fantasy purposes, please, be my guest. But I encourage you to check out my TSR partner John Paulsen’s work if you’re looking specifically for fantasy-related content. Just do so after you read this piece………..you’re not even reading this, are you?)

1. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
I’m going to start off with a somewhat obvious candidate in Bowe based on offseason reports (he’s also already shown that he can be productive). But make a mental note (seriously, write it down) that I’ve been high on the former LSU product ever since his performance in the 2007 Sugar Bowl against Note Dame (even though he was arguably outperformed by Early Doucet). After spending a grueling offseason participating in Larry Fitzgerald’s football camp, Bowe is reportedly down to 210 pounds after showing up to camp last year at 240. After spending most of preseason in Todd Haley’s doghouse last year, Bowe is now running with the Chiefs’ first-team offense this summer. At 6’2 and 210 pounds, the problem with Bowe has never been about size or physical tools. His issues have always lied within his work ethic, or lack thereof. But if he’s focused, he could have a tremendous year in Haley’s offense and could go from a promising player to a Pro Bowler in one season.

2. Johnny Knox, Bears
As John wrote in his breakdown of sleeper fantasy receivers last week, it’s hard to pick out just one Bear receiver that could break out this season. That’s because in Mike Martz’s offense, they all could break out. But I’m going with Knox over returner-turned-receiver Devin Hester, whom some believe will be Chicago’s biggest breakout player. Knox has reportedly been targeted more than any receiver in Bears’ camp so far this offseason and he’s the perfect fit for Martz’s up-temp offense. That’s because he not only has elite speed, but he’s also a sound route-runner and he’s already drawing comparisons to Torry Holt in terms of how his game translates in Martz’s offense. Assuming Jay Cutler targets him in the regular season as much as he has so far in training camp, a 1,000-yard season is well within Knox’s reach.

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