The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Cardinals: 34 PA (0) + 1 SK = 1 fp
#2 Chargers: 16 PA (2) + 5 SK + INT = 8 fp
#3 Texans: 10 PA (6) + 2 SK + 2 INT = 10 fp

Wow, did the Arizona defense lay an egg last week. The Cardinals had the top-ranked rush defense coming in, and had played well the previous two weeks against the Giants and the Seahawks. But DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart gashed them repeatedly on the ground to the tune of 245 yards and two TD, and they failed to get to Jake Delhomme in the passing game. The Chargers and Texans performed as expected. (Special thanks to our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, for redeeming himself with the Houston pick.)

For the season, the #1 DTBWW pick has averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, the #2 pick has averaged 9.4 and the #3 pick is posting 7.6. On the whole, DTBWW is producing 9.1 points per game, which are DT5 numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: Seattle Seahawks (vs. DET)
Seattle is averaging 11.3 fantasy points at home (versus 2.3 on the road), so a matchup with the visiting Lions is tasty indeed. The Seahawks have destroyed the Rams and Jags at home this season and should be able to post nice fantasy numbers against the struggling Lions.

Pick #2: Atlanta Falcons (vs. WAS)
The Falcons have some problems, but played well in the second half against a great Saints’ offense. The Redskins’ offensive woes have been well documented, and like most defenses, the Falcons play better at home. Another nice thing about ATL is that they have a good matchup in Week 10 as well (@ CAR), so they could be a solid multi-week play.

Pick #3: San Francisco 49ers (vs. TEN)
Vince Young looked pretty good last week, but the 49ers aren’t the Jags. Mike Singletary’s defensive unit did a pretty nice job in a tough situation last week in Indy, and it has played well in favorable situations this season. Containing Chris Johnson is the key.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Colts: 6 PA (8) + 3 SK + 2 INT + INT RET TD = 19 fantasy points
#2 Bills: 9 PA (6) + 2 SK + 3 INT + 1 FR = 12 fp
#3 Raiders: 38 PA (0) + 1 SK = 1 fp

The Colts and Bills performed as expected, maybe even beyond expectations. The Raiders? Well, they stunk up the joint. I realized watching the OAK/NYJ game that the Raiders performed well the previous week against the Eagles because Philly doesn’t run the ball. OAK is terrible against the rush and the Jets have a good rushing game.

On the season, my pick #1 has averaged 11.7 fantasy points, my pick #2 has averaged 9.6 and my pick #3 has averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 9.5 fantasy points per week, which is DT5-type performance. Not bad.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Bengals: 2 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 4 fantasy points
#2 Redskins: 14 PA (4) + 5 SK = 9 fp
#3 Jaguars: 1 SK + 1 INT = 2 fp

The Texans have a pretty potent offense, so in hindsight it probably wasn’t too smart to take the Bengals, even if they’ve been playing good defense this year. The Jaguars were a disaster, which is a shame, because I was thisclose to recommending the Bucs, who had 16 points against the Panthers. (I did mention Tampa Bay as a bonus pick.) The deciding factor? Anthony Stalter thought the Jags’ DT was a bit better. Thanks for nothing, Stalter.

For the season, my #1 pick is averaging 10.5 ppg, #2 is averaging 9.2 and #3 is averaging 8.3. Combining all the picks, DTBWW is averaging 9.3 points per game. Those are DT7 numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: Indianapolis Colts (@ STL)
The Colts are reasonably healthy, well-rested and pretty solid all-around. The Rams’ offense has looked a little better the last couple of weeks, but Donnie Avery is hobbled and Indy should be able to pressure the statuesque Marc Bulger.

Pick #2: Buffalo Bills (@ CAR)
Despite their offensive woes, the Bills have been pretty solid defenisvely. They are fantasy’s 8th-ranked defense and have averaged 8.1 fppg. They face the Panthers, who have been awful offensively. Fantasy defenses are averaging 14.4 against Carolina.

Pick #3: Oakland Raiders (vs. NYJ)
The sheen is off of Mark Sanchez and the verdict is in: He really is a rookie quarterback. Fantasy defenses have scored 9.3 ppg against the Jets through six weeks, and the Saints and Bills have gone for 26 and 12, respectively, in the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Raiders are showing some life, as evidenced by their performance against a pretty potent Eagles’ offense in Week 6. Nnamdi Asomugha should be back in the lineup and the Jets won’t be helped by a cross country flight.

Bonus Pick: If you run out of options, the Panthers play at home against a Bills offense that will probably run Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 49ers: 1 SK + 1 INT = 2 fantasy points
#2 Bills: 6 PA (8) + 1 SK + 1 INT = 10 fp
#3 Cowboys: 4 SK = 4 fp

Unless you had the Bills, this was not a very good week for DTBWW. The Falcons made the 49ers look like a bunch of high schoolers, and while the Cowboys sacked Matt Cassel four times, they didn’t create any turnovers or keep points off the board.

Through Week 5, the top DTBWW pick is averaging 11.8 fantasy points, the #2 pick is averaging 9.2 fp and the #3 pick is averaging 9.6. Combining the three groups, DTBWW is averaging 10.2 fp on the season. Those are DT7 numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. (I’ve seen the Packers available on a few waiver wires, and if they’re available, I’d pick them first; they play the Lions at home.)

Pick #1: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. HOU)
The Texans are just a mediocre matchup, but the Bengals defense is playing very well of late, posting at least seven fantasy points in each of its five outings. The game is at home, so that should help.

Pick #2: Washington Redskins (vs. KC)
Again, the Chiefs aren’t a great matchup, but the Redskins defense has been pretty solid of late and if the offense can put a few drives together, Washington should have a nice day.

Pick #3: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. STL)
The Jags have one of the worst fantasy defenses in the league, but these are the Rams we’re talking about. Teams have averaged 16.4 fantasy points against St. Louis, so even the Jags should have a pretty nice day.

Bonus Pick: If you run out of options, the Bucs have a nice matchup at home against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers. Opposing defenses have scored 14.0 fp against Carolina this season.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 49ers: 0 PA (10) + 5 SK + 1 INT + 3 RET TD + 1 FR = 36 fantasy points
#2 Bengals: 2 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR + 1 RET TD = 10 fp
#3 Bills: 6 SK = 6 fp

Clearly, the 49ers were an awesome pick and they no doubt won a ton of games for fantasy owners this week, whether or not they were following DTBWW. The Bengals didn’t do quite as well from a sack/turnover aspect as I thought they would, but they did have a return TD, so that made for a good day. I didn’t mention it last week, but Indianapolis was an attractive pick too, but it looked like Dwight Freeney was going to be out, so I didn’t pick the Colts over the Bills.

Through three weeks, pick #1 has generated 14.3 fp, pick #2 has averaged 9.0 fp and pick #3 has scored 11.0 fp on average. On the whole, DTBWW has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. Those are DT4-type numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers (vs. ATL)
They’re the top defense in the league and they’re available in 70% of ESPN leagues. The Falcons are just a mediocre matchup for SF, but the 49ers are playing really good defense right now and they’re at home this week. If you picked them up last week, stick with them.

Pick #2: Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE)
The Bills were embarrassed against Miami, allowing 38 points and a ton of rushing yards. If this game were in Cleveland, I may not take the Bills here, but they always play pretty tough in Buffalo.

Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (@ KC)
After a pair of goose eggs to start the season, the Cowboys have bounced back with solid efforts the last two weeks, posting 21 fantasy points against the Panthers and nine against the Broncos last week. In Week 5, they face the Chiefs, who can’t run the ball and don’t have that many options in the passing game.

Bonus pick: Miami (vs. NYJ)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

Read the rest of this entry »

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s take a look at how they performed:

#1 Falcons: 1 SK + 1 FR + 1 INT = 3 fantasy points
#2 Redskins: 7 PA (6) + 1 SK + 1 FR = 8 fp
#3 Broncos: 6 PA (8) + 4 SK + 1 INT + 2 FR = 15 fp

So far, my #1 pick is averaging 3.5 fantasy points (not good), my #2 pick is averaging 11.0 points (very good) and my bonus pick is averaging 10.0 points (very good). The overall average is 8.2 fantasy points.

Here are this week’s recommendations. All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. If the Packers are available in your league, I’d start them (against the Rams) before any of these teams this week.

Pick #1: Broncos (@ OAK)
Through the first two weeks, the Broncos own the #2 fantasy defense. Is this going to last? Probably not. But after two great matchups with the Bengals and Browns, the Broncos get another potentially good matchup with the Oakland Raiders.

Pick #2: Redskins (@ DET)
Washington’s defense is solid, yet unspectacular. In the last three seasons, the Redskins have finished no higher than 19th in fantasy defense. But last week they held the Rams to just seven points, and this week they get a tasty matchup with the Detroit Lions.

Bonus Pick: Cowboys (vs. CAR)
Believe it or not, the Cowboys have failed to register a sack or create a turnover through two games. But with Jake Delhomme coming to town, that should change. I’d expect the Cowboys defense will be fired up and ready to play after a tough loss against the Giants last week. Wade Phillips is a good defensive coach, so he should be able to turn things around.

The idea is that each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. (All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.)

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s take a look at how they performed:

#1: Saints (vs. DET) = 1 SK + 3 INT = 4 fantasy points
#2: Seahawks (vs. STL) = 0 PA (10) + 3 SK + 1 FR = 14 fantasy points
#3: Cardinals (vs. SF) = 4 SK + 1 FR = 5 fantasy points

The Saints and Cardinals didn’t play up to expectations, but when the Seahawks are included, the trio averaged 7.7 fp, which is solid.

Here are my picks for this week:

Pick #1: Atlanta Falcons (vs. CAR)
The Eagles created seven turnovers against the Panthers last week and Jake Delhomme looked awful. No matter who Carolina has at QB, the deck is sacked against them as they face a Falcons defense that posted 14 fp against the conservative Dolphins.

Pick #2: Washington Redskins (vs. STL)
The Rams were brutal last week, and while the Redskins haven’t historically been able to generate a lot of turnovers, they should be able to handle the Rams after going toe to toe with a pretty good Giants’ offense last week.

Bonus Pick: Denver Broncos (vs. CLE)
The Broncos played well against a Bengals offense that has some firepower. I’d expect they’ll fare even better at home against Brady Quinn and the Browns.

Other defenses to consider: SEA (@ SF), SF (vs. SEA), IND (@ MIA)

Yesterday, I posted my DTBWW picks for Week 1 and thought I’d spend a little more time discussing the subject. I’ve used DTBWW quite a bit in the past, and it’s not always by design. Sometimes a defense that I’m counting on doesn’t perform up to snuff, so I need to look elsewhere for production. The idea is that every week, there is usually one or two mediocre or solid defenses on your league’s waiver wire that have a favorable matchup. A mediocre defense with a great matchup is just as good as having a great defense with a medicore matchup.

Last season, my top weekly DTBWW pick averaged 9.8 points per week, which over the course of the season equates to DT2 or DT3 numbers. My second pick averaged 6.1 points, which obviously isn’t as good, but still solid. The top two picks averaged 7.9 points, or DT6-type numbers. (If you’re wondering what scoring system I’m using, it’s the Antsports High Performance scoring system that awards one point per sack, fumble and interception, two points per safety and six points per defensive/special teams touchdown.)

The best way to pick a DTBWW candidate is to look for medicore/solid defenses that are facing bad offenses that allow a lot of sacks. Total sacks is the most consistent defensive scoring category week-to-week and it’s also a good indicator of quarterback pressure, which can lead to turnovers and touchdowns. It also helps to pick defenses that are playing at home, as most DTs play better at home than they do on the road.

Read the rest of this entry »

In a column I wrote on the last day of 2008, I pledged to use DTBWW as much as possible in 2009.

8. I will always play Defensive Team By Waiver Wire.
Unless I’m in a league where I have to pay for each transaction, I am going to go with DTBWW. In my weekly, Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em, I gave at least two recommendations each week for defenses that were widely available on the waiver wire, and on the whole, those recommendations did rather well. My top pick averaged 9.8 points, while my second pick averaged 6.1 points. Combined, they averaged 7.9 points, which would yield 126 points on the season – the same total as the #6 DT (NYG) scored this year. My top picks scored at a rate that would have racked up 157 points, one point behind the #2 DT (TEN). I typically go with a defense that is playing at home and is facing a sack-happy offensive line. And usually it works out.

The idea is that each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. (All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.)

Pick #1: Saints (vs. DET)
It’s hard not to like the Saints this week against the Lions, who went 0-16 last season and have a rookie QB starting his first NFL game. Detroit gave up 52 sacks last season and did little to shore up the offensive line in the offseason.

Pick #2: Seahawks (vs. STL)
Seattle is healthy and added LB Aaron Curry to an already solid defense. The Rams allowed 45 sacks in 2008, partly because Marc Bulger is not the most mobile of QBs.

Bonus Pick: Cardinals (vs. SF)
The 49ers led the lead in sacks allowed (55) so while Shaun Hill and Co. might be able to put some points on the board, he’s probably going to spend much of the afternoon picking himself up off the turf.

In next week’s DTBWW post, I’ll recap how these three picks performed.