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	<title>The Scores Report - The National Sports Blog &#187; DTBC</title>
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		<title>Which DTs were most productive in 2010?</title>
		<link>http://www.scoresreport.com/2011/03/22/which-dts-were-most-productive-in-2010/</link>
		<comments>http://www.scoresreport.com/2011/03/22/which-dts-were-most-productive-in-2010/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Mar 2011 22:01:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paulsen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[External Sports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2010 fantasy football season]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011 fantasy football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011 fantasy football draft strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011 fantasy football strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DTBC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=55229</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Other positions: QB &#124; RB &#124; WR &#124; TE &#124; DT When doing a postmortem on any fantasy football season, I like to look at how a particular player performed on a per game basis adjusted for his strength of schedule (SOS). DTs are no different, except that they all played the same number of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Other positions:</em> <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2011/03/07/which-qbs-were-the-most-productive-in-2010/">QB</a> | <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2011/03/08/which-rbs-were-the-most-productive-in-2010/">RB</a> | <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2011/03/10/who-were-the-most-productive-wrs-in-2010/">WR</a> | <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2011/03/11/which-tes-were-most-productive-in-2010/">TE</a> | <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2011/03/22/which-dts-were-most-productive-in-2010/">DT</a></p>
<p>When doing a postmortem on any fantasy football season, I like to look at how a particular player performed on a per game basis adjusted for his strength of schedule (SOS). DTs are no different, except that they all played the same number of games. SOS will have an impact, but the per game aspect of it won&#8217;t make much of a difference.</p>
<p>Keep in mind that I used the following scoring system:</p>
<blockquote><p>DT/ST TD = 6 points<br />
Safety   = 2 points<br />
INT      = 1 point<br />
Fumble   = 1 point<br />
Sack     = 1 point</p>
<p>Defensive Points Allowed<br />
Shutout  = 10<br />
2  &#8211;  6 = 8<br />
7  &#8211; 10 = 6<br />
11 &#8211; 14 = 4<br />
15 &#8211; 19 = 2<br />
20+ = 0</p></blockquote>
<p>Here&#8217;s a look at how the 32 DTs stack up against each other when SOS bias is removed:</p>
<p><span id="more-55229"></span></p>
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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>#</th>
<th>Team</th>
<th>PPG</th>
<th>SOS Adj</th>
<th>Adj PPG</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>10.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>NE</td>
<td>10.1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>10.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>GB</td>
<td>9.5</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>9.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>NYJ</td>
<td>8.9</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>9.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>OAK</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>8.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>ARI</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>8.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>CHI</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>8.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>BAL</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>SD</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>8.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10</td>
<td>KC</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11</td>
<td>DET</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>ATL</td>
<td>8.1</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13</td>
<td>NYG</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>7.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
<td>DAL</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>7.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>15</td>
<td>TEN</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>16</td>
<td>SEA</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>17</td>
<td>MIA</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>7.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>18</td>
<td>PHI</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>6.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>19</td>
<td>SF</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>20</td>
<td>WAS</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21</td>
<td>NO</td>
<td>7.1</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22</td>
<td>TB</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23</td>
<td>BUF</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>6.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24</td>
<td>IND</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>6.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>6.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26</td>
<td>CLE</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27</td>
<td>STL</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>6.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>28</td>
<td>CIN</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>5.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>29</td>
<td>CAR</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>4.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>30</td>
<td>DEN</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>4.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>31</td>
<td>JAX</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>4.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>32</td>
<td>HOU</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>4.0</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Essentially, the column on the far right is the baseline for the 2011 season. Once we know each team&#8217;s week-by-week schedule, we can adjust for 2011 projected SOS and come up with a tentative list from which to work with. Obviously, if a defense signs an impact free agent or hires a new defensive coordinator, that will have to be taken into account as well.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s interesting that there are four perennially solid DTs at the top of the list (PIT, NE, GB, NYJ), but would anyone be surprised if #5 Oakland or #6 Arizona took a big fall in 2011? After the aforementioned four DTs, I just see a large group of middling fantasy defenses that are all about the same.</p>
<p>So long after the Steelers, Patriots, Packers and Jets fly off the board during the draft, I&#8217;ll probably be looking to build a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) with a couple of these middling defenses whose schedules happen to combine favorably.</p>
<p>But that&#8217;s another post for another time.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)</title>
		<link>http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/07/27/2010-fantasy-football-preview-defensive-team-by-committee-dtbc/</link>
		<comments>http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/07/27/2010-fantasy-football-preview-defensive-team-by-committee-dtbc/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Jul 2010 21:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paulsen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[External NFL]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[2010 DTBC]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[2010 fantasy football preview]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=43373</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles &#124; 2010 Position Rankings Very few defenses are elite year to year, and performance can be tough to predict. One way to approach the position is to form a committee of two (or more) defenses that have favorable combined schedules but are being drafted in much later rounds than the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/tag/2010-fantasy-football-preview/">All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles</a> | <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/tag/2010-fantasy-football-position-rankings/">2010 Position Rankings</a></p>
<p>Very few defenses are elite year to year, and performance can be tough to predict. One way to approach the position is to form a committee of two (or more) defenses that have favorable combined schedules but are being drafted in much later rounds than the so-called elite defenses. The idea is that a mediocre defense with a great matchup will provide approximately the same production as a great defense with a mediocre or bad matchup.</p>
<p>Clayton Gray of Footballguys.com does an excellent job of compiling the <a href="http://footballguys.com/10sos_td.php" target="_blank">strength of schedule data</a>, and he even writes his own <a href="http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2010/10usingsos_tdbc.php" target="_blank">DTBC column</a> (though he calls it &#8216;TDBC&#8217;). However, I like to go a step further and add the impact of home and away games, as middling defenses have a tendency to score more fantasy points at home.</p>
<p>Last year, my <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/08/12/2009-fantasy-football-preview-dts-dtbc/">top recommended combination</a> was Green Bay and Dallas, which turned out well as both teams turned out to have Top 10 fantasy defenses. While I would have been better off just running the Packers out there every week, the duo&#8217;s recommended schedule netted 135 points (under a <a href="http://www.antsports.com/info/HP_Scoring.asp" target="_blank">high performance scoring system</a>), which were DT5-type numbers. My alternate recommendation, GB/ARI, netted 142 points, so DTBC does work.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s how I identify the top DTBC combinations:</p>
<p><strong>1. Use FBG&#8217;s SOS for DT9-DT28 along with David Dodds&#8217; <a href="http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2010/currentproj-td-2.php" target="_blank">defensive projections</a> to produce a week-by-week estimate for each defense.</strong><br />
I eliminated NYJ, MIN, GB, PHI, BAL, PIT, DAL and SF from the study because all eight defenses are being drafted by the 12th round, which is just too early to start a DTBC. Please note that I don&#8217;t use Dodds&#8217; fantasy point projections, just the projections for points allowed, sacks, interceptions, fumbles and touchdowns scored. So the point totals won&#8217;t look the same.</p>
<p><strong>2. Apply home/away adjustment.</strong><br />
With relation to a team&#8217;s mean performance, I found that middling defenses (DT6-DT25) scored 2.8% higher at home in 2009 and 8.6% higher in 2008. I took the average (5.7%) and applied a bonus to home games and a handicap to away games. The more home games, the better.</p>
<p><strong>3. Run the numbers for the resulting 190 possible combinations to find the best DTBCs.</strong><br />
I also calculated the playoff averages for Weeks 14-16 (and just Weeks 15 &#038; 16 for a two-week playoff system) as a tiebreaker.</p>
<p>So now I&#8217;m armed with a list of 190 possibilities sorted by total projected points. But numbers aren&#8217;t enough. I want a real-world perspective on this list. So I enlist the help of our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to give his thoughts on the defenses in question. After some discussion, we narrow the list of the best candidates to eight teams: SD, NO, NYG, CIN, MIA, CHI, NE and IND. When picking our DTBC, we shouldn&#8217;t stray from these eight teams.</p>
<p>Here are Anthony&#8217;s rankings along with his thoughts on each defense:</p>
<p><span id="more-43373"></span></p>
<p><strong>1. SAN DIEGO</strong><br />
<em><strong>Combines well with:</strong> NE, CHI, MIA, IND</em><br />
<em><strong>Anthony&#8217;s thoughts:</strong> The Chargers lost two starters from their 2009 secondary when Antonio Cromartie was traded to the Jets and Kevin Ellison was released after he was arrested on felony drug possession charges. Cromartie isn’t coming off a great year, but Nathan Vasher and Donald Strickland are unlikely to be upgrades at the corner position. The front seven is good and if Shawne Merriman is healthy it’ll be even better, but the secondary is a concern.</em></p>
<p><strong>2. NEW YORK GIANTS</strong><br />
<em><strong>Combines well with:</strong> IND, CIN, MIA, SD, NO, NE</em><br />
<em><strong>Anthony&#8217;s thoughts:</strong> This should be a vastly improved defense in 2010. The offseason additions of Keith Bulluck, Deon Grant, Antrel Rolle and rookies Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph were key, but they don’t hold a candle to the team’s decision to punt ’09 coordinator Bill Sheridan. His schemes didn’t match the Giants’ personnel and quite frankly, just didn’t work. While the health status of Kenny Phillips and Osi Umenyiora is of major concern, the hiring of former Bills’ DC Perry Fewell should mean that the G-Men will get back to what they do best in 2010: Getting after the quarterback.</em></p>
<p><strong>3. NEW ORLEANS</strong><br />
<em><strong>Combines well with:</strong> NYG, CHI, MIA</em><br />
<em><strong>Anthony&#8217;s thoughts:</strong> Coordinator Gregg Williams will once again be the key to the Saints’ success on defense, but the offseason produced more questions than answers. After completely ignoring the position during the draft, the Saints have a hole at outside linebacker now that Scott Fujita is in Cleveland. Can Jo-Lonn Dunbar take over on the strong-side? Is Darren Sharper healthy? Can youngsters Malcolm Jenkins and Patrick Robinson contribute? At least one thing&#8217;s for sure, Reggie Bush is always a major threat in the return game.</em></p>
<p><strong>4. CINCINNATI</strong><br />
<em><strong>Combines well with:</strong> CHI, NE, NYG, MIA</em><br />
<em><strong>Anthony&#8217;s thoughts:</strong> Led by a young core featuring Leon Hall, Jonathan Joseph, Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga, it’s hard not to love the Bengals’ potential on defense heading into the season. Plus, getting a healthy Antwan Odom (Achilles’ surgery) back is obviously huge for the team’s pass-rush.</em></p>
<p><strong>5. MIAMI</strong><br />
<em><strong>Combines well with:</strong> SD, IND, NYG, CIN, CHI, NO</em><br />
<em><strong>Anthony&#8217;s thoughts:</strong> There might not be a more productive all-around linebacker in the league than Karlos Dansby. His addition, coupled with the hiring of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan (who was behind the Broncos’ defensive success last season) has some in the media believing that the Dolphins are legit postseason contenders again.</em></p>
<p><strong>6. CHICAGO</strong><br />
<em><strong>Combines well with:</strong> SD, CIN, IND, NE, MIA, NO </em><br />
<em><strong>Anthony&#8217;s thoughts:</strong> The biggest addition was obviously Julius Peppers, who should help the Bears mask their deficiencies in the secondary by generating a pass rush. Although, if Peppers decides that this is one of the years he wants to take off, then Chicago is going to be in trouble. Their secondary is a legitimate concern, but the additions of Chris Harris and Major Wright should help. Overall, this is an improved team on paper and getting a healthy Brian Urlacher (who missed virtually the entire 2009 season with an injury) back will help. But it remains to be seen if everything will come together for Da Bears.</em></p>
<p><strong>7. NEW ENGLAND</strong><br />
<em><strong>Combines well with:</strong> SD, CHI, CIN, NYG</em><br />
<em><strong>Anthony&#8217;s thoughts:</strong> The key to the Pats’ entire offseason was being able to reach a deal with DT Vince Wilfork. The additions of CB Devin McCourty, DE Jermaine Cunningham and LB Brandon Spikes via the draft will help, as will the return of a healthy Jerod Mayo. This isn’t a defense that stands out on paper, but nobody gets more out of his roster or his schemes than Bill Belichick.<br />
</em><br />
<strong>8. INDIANAPOLIS</strong><br />
<em><strong>Combines well with:</strong> CHI, SD, NYG, MIA</em><br />
<em><strong>Anthony&#8217;s thoughts:</strong> As usual, the Colts relied on the draft to make upgrades to their team, as opposed to free agency. They used their first three picks in April on defense to select DE Jerry Hughes, who will fortify their pass rush, LB Pat Angerer (a solid all-around playmaker) and CB Kevin Thomas, who will add depth to their secondary. It’ll take time before these youngsters have an impact, but the future is bright for Indy’s defense.</em></p>
<p>So how do we use all of this info?</p>
<p>According to the numbers, San Diego is part of the four top DTBCs, so look for the Chargers in the 14th or 15th round and try to pair them with New England, Miami and Chicago, in that order. Anthony likes Chicago and Miami a bit more than New England, but the Pats were DT10 last year and not much has changed. I think they have less of a downside than the Bears or Dolphins do. A SD/NYG combo is projected to score about 10-13 fewer points over the course of a season, but the Giants should be vastly improved, so those should be two quality fantasy defenses to target.</p>
<p>For what it&#8217;s worth, SD/NE is also FBG&#8217;s top combination, though SD/CHI and SD/MIA are not in their Top 20.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a list of each of the eight teams as well as those weeks where they are projected to score 8.0+ points:</p>
<p><em>SD: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, 14, 15<br />
NYG: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 13, 15<br />
NO: 2, 6, 7, 14 (Dodds is not high on the Saints this year.)<br />
CIN: 4, 5, 11, 15<br />
MIA: 1, 3, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16<br />
CHI: 1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16<br />
NE: 3, 9, 12, 13, 16<br />
IND: 2, 3, 5, 6, 14, 16</em></p>
<p>From a pure numbers standpoint, here are the 19-best combinations of these eight teams: SD/NE*, SD/CHI*, SD/MIA*, CHI/CIN*, CHI/IND, SD/IND*, CHI/NE, NYG/IND, CIN/NE*, MIA/IND*, CIN/NYG, NYG/MIA, SD/NYG, CIN/MIA*, NO/NYG, CHI/MIA, NO/CHI, NYG/NE and NO/MIA*. (Note: Asterisks indicate combos that are projected to score 30+ points in Weeks 14-16 and 20+ points in Weeks 15-16.)</p>
<p>The nice thing about DTBC is that there are always fallback options if part of your top combo is drafted earlier than expected. These eight teams form 19 combinations projected to post DT3-type numbers or better, so use those 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th round picks to build depth at RB or WR (<a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/07/23/2010-fantasy-football-preview-quarterback-by-committee-qbbc/">or to build a QBBC</a>) and start putting together your DTBC in the 14th round or later.</p>
<p>Here are our official DT rankings, by tier:</p>
<p>1. Jets<br />
2. Ravens</p>
<p>3. Steelers<br />
4. Vikings<br />
5. Packers<br />
6. Eagles<br />
7. 49ers</p>
<p>8. Cowboys<br />
9. Chargers<br />
10. Giants<br />
11. Saints<br />
12. Bengals<br />
13. Patriots</p>
<p>14. Dolphins<br />
15. Bears<br />
16. Colts</p>
<p>17. Titans<br />
18. Broncos<br />
19. Panthers<br />
20. Cardinals<br />
21. Redskins<br />
22. Bills<br />
23. Bucs<br />
24. Falcons</p>
<p>25. Texans<br />
26. Browns<br />
27. Seahawks</p>
<p>28. Raiders<br />
29. Lions<br />
30. Jaguars<br />
31. Chiefs<br />
32. Rams</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) for the rest of the season</title>
		<link>http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/06/defensive-team-by-committee-dtbc-for-the-rest-of-the-season/</link>
		<comments>http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/06/defensive-team-by-committee-dtbc-for-the-rest-of-the-season/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:00:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paulsen</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[fantasy football week 9]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=28307</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in August, I recommended a few DTBC combinations for fantasy owners to use throughout the season. My top recommendation was GB/DAL, who have combined to score 69 points through eight weeks (8.6 ppg). This combo started a bit slow, as Dallas posted a goose egg in Week 2, over the last three weeks, it [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://search.espn.go.com/jerod-mayo/photo/8" target="_blank"><img height="318" width="477" src="http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0911/nfl_g_jmayo1_600.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>Back in August, <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/08/12/2009-fantasy-football-preview-dts-dtbc/">I recommended a few DTBC combinations</a> for fantasy owners to use throughout the season. My top recommendation was GB/DAL, who have combined to score 69 points through eight weeks (8.6 ppg). This combo started a bit slow, as Dallas posted a goose egg in Week 2, over the last three weeks, it has scored 44 combined points.</p>
<p>Still own these two defenses? You can still hold onto them, but Week 15 is looking a little rough as the Packers play in Pittsburgh and the Cowboys visit the Saints. Green Bay just isn&#8217;t putting much pressure on the QB, so Ben Roethlisberger may be able to sit back and pick apart the Packer secondary.</p>
<p>If don&#8217;t own a top tier defense (PHI, NO, MIN, BAL and PIT, now that they have Troy Polamalu back), you may want to consider acquiring two good but not great defenses that combine to have a favorable schedule down the stretch. Normally, it doesn&#8217;t make sense to carry two defenses, but now that most of the teams are past their byes, it&#8217;s not necessary to hold onto bye week fill-ins because you&#8217;re probably not going to need them.</p>
<p>There are eleven DTs that are owned in more than two-thirds of ESPN leagues making it somewhat unlikely that they&#8217;re available on your league&#8217;s waiver wire. This list includes the aforementioned six teams along with the Broncos, Packers, Giants, Jets, Bears and Colts. If you have one of these six, it might behoove you to grab a defense with a complementary schedule. </p>
<p>I&#8217;m targeting nine defenses &#8212; the Cardinals, Patriots, Texans, 49ers, Bengals, Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks and the Dolphins &#8212; that either mesh well with the Broncos, Packers, Giants and Jets, or with each other. These defenses are all ranked in the top 22 and are available in at least a third of ESPN fantasy leagues. These are defenses that relatively healthy and have had success in good matchups.  Here&#8217;s a look:</p>
<p><span id="more-28307"></span></p>
<p><strong>If you have the Broncos (good matchups in Weeks 9, 10 and 15)&#8230;</strong><br />
&#8230;pick up the Cowboys (11, 12, 16), Cardinals (11, 15, 16), Dolphins (11, 14) or the Bengals (11, 12, 13). If you&#8217;re just eyeing a strong playoff run, pick up the Patriots (14, 16).</p>
<p><strong>If you have the Packers (9, 12)&#8230;</strong><br />
&#8230;pick up the Bengals (11, 12, 13), the Texans (13, 15) or the Cardinals (11, 15, 16). Arizona would have you better positioned for the playoffs.</p>
<p><strong>If you have the Giants (15, 16)&#8230;</strong><br />
&#8230;pick up the Falcons (9, 10), Bengals (11, 12, 13), or the Dolphins (11, 14). If you just want to be strong for a three-week playoff, pick up the Patriots (14, 16).</p>
<p><strong>If you have the Jets (10, 12)&#8230;</strong><br />
&#8230;pick up the Cardinals (11, 15, 16), the Texans (13, 15) or the Patriots (14, 16). The Pats have a pretty good matchup in Week 15 as well, so you would be well positioned for the stretch run.</p>
<p><strong>If you have the Bears (13)&#8230;</strong><br />
&#8230;cut them and pick up a couple of other defenses with a better combined schedule. The Bears defense just isn&#8217;t good enough to overcome its tough schedule.</p>
<p><strong>If you have the Colts (15)&#8230;</strong><br />
&#8230;you can keep starting them, but take note that through Week 8 they have had the 4th-easiest schedule. Pick up the Cardinals (15, 16) or the Patriots (14, 16) to give yourself a fall back plan if they start to stink it up. They just lost Bob Sanders for the year.</p>
<p>Not in any of these situations? Consider picking up a pair of middling defenses from the table below with complementary schedules. The weeks where each team have good or great matchups are listed without an asterisk. Weeks with an asterisk represent matchups that are pretty good or solid. I&#8217;ve ranked each combination based on their pure strength of schedule (from Footballguys). If you feel better about one particular defense &#8212; for example, I like the Patriots the most &#8212; then bump them up a little bit. Combos without a rating are decent to bad.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re team is looking really strong and is destined for the playoffs, then you can focus on finding a combo that has a great schedule in the fantasy postseason (Week 14-16). I&#8217;ve listed those combos in green (or a green box, if those combos &#8212; in this case ARI/MIA or NE/HOU &#8212; didn&#8217;t earn a rating). </p>
<p><img src="http://www.scoresreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/dtbc-for-the-rest-of-the-season.jpg" alt="" /></p>
<p>I&#8217;m targeting the Patriots due to their terrific schedule during the fantasy playoffs (CAR, @ BUF, JAX), but if New England isn&#8217;t available, ARI/SEA, ARI/HOU and HOU/DAL all offer a nice combined schedule the rest of the way.</p>
<p>If your team isn&#8217;t in good shape and needs to make a run, you may want to grab one of the combos that has a good schedule over the next four or five weeks (ATL/CIN or ATL/DAL, for example) and hope that you can make a run. Another option is to play <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/03/defensive-team-by-waiver-wire-dtbww-week-9/">DTBWW</a>, which is a weekly post here at TSR.</p>
<p>If you have any questions, fire away. I&#8217;ll do my best to answer them.</p>
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		<title>2009 Fantasy Football Preview: DTs, DTBC</title>
		<link>http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/08/12/2009-fantasy-football-preview-dts-dtbc/</link>
		<comments>http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/08/12/2009-fantasy-football-preview-dts-dtbc/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Aug 2009 00:17:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paulsen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[External Sports]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[2009 fantasy football preview]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=22562</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[All 2009 Fantasy Articles &#124; 2009 Position Rankings Defenses are tough to predict year to year, so fantasy owners are generally better off using their middle round picks to build depth at the skill positions. An emerging strategy is to utilize a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) approach, which involves drafting two late-round defenses whose [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://search.espn.go.com/ray-lewis/photo/8" target="_blank"><img height="268" width="477" src="http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2008/1228/nfl_g_rlewists_576.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/tag/2009-fantasy-football-preview/" target="_blank">All 2009 Fantasy Articles</a> | <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/tag/2009-position-rankings/">2009 Position Rankings</a></p>
<p>Defenses are tough to predict year to year, so fantasy owners are generally better off using their middle round picks to build depth at the skill positions. An emerging strategy is to utilize a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) approach, which involves drafting two late-round defenses whose schedules combine well. The idea is to get top 5 or top 10 DT performance at a much cheaper price.</p>
<p>Last year, <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/2008/08/10/defensive-team-by-committee/">we provided three recommended DTBCs</a>: 1) SEA/BUF, 2) BUF/NO and 3) BUF/GB.</p>
<p>Seahawks/Bills was our top recommendation, and while the combo didn’t set the world on fire, they performed well. Under a <a href="http://www.antsports.com/info/HP_Scoring.asp" target="_blank">high performance scoring system</a>, the duo combined for 132 fantasy points over the first 16 weeks, which outscored all but the top 6 defenses in 2008. However, when we account for the bye week fill in by adding the average points per game of DT13-DT32 (5.4 per game), DT7 (Minnesota) would have also outscored the Seahawks/Bills combination. Still, getting DT8 performance with two late round picks is nothing to sneeze at. The duo also performed well in Week 15 (9 points) and Week 16 (14 points), when it mattered most.</p>
<p>Our second recommendation (and also the Footballguys’ recommendation, one of the first sites – if not <em>the</em> first – to outline this approach) was the Bills/Saints. Unfortunately, this combo did not perform well, posting 112 points over 16 weeks, mostly due to the Saints&#8217; struggles. The duo would have finished the season as DT15, which is pretty bad considering that the Bills alone finished DT17.</p>
<p>Our final recommendation – Packers/Bills – posted 144 points, which would have been good for DT5 in 2008. This duo didn’t perform particularly well in the playoffs, scoring just 10 points over the last three games, but on the whole, this was a terrific DTBC last year.</p>
<p>Looking ahead to this season, <a href="http://footballguys.com/cdcheck/167.pdf" target="_blank">Footballguys recommends a Cardinals/Packers combo</a>, and while it certainly looks like a good one, we have another that we’d recommend first. FBG factors for home/away advantage/disadvantage, but they only go so far. Two years ago, <a href="http://www.bullz-eye.com/paulsen/2008/0108.htm">we looked at home/away as it relates to DTBC</a>, and found that middling defenses (ranked #6-#25) scored at a 31% better clip when playing at home. In the 2008 season, that number fell to 7%. This is a much smaller impact, but still significant.</p>
<p><span id="more-22562"></span></p>
<p>Here’s our methodology:<br />
<strong><br />
1. Take FBG’s <a href="http://footballguys.com/09sos_def.php" target="_blank">strength of schedule</a> for DT9 through DT27.</strong><br />
We included the Bengals and Browns because our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, is reasonably optimistic about the improvement those two defenses could show this year. We eliminated the top 8 defenses according to ADP – the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Bears, Jets, Giants, Vikings and Eagles – because they’re all going in the 12th round or earlier, and that’s just too soon to take a DT to be part of a committee.</p>
<p><strong>2. Apply FBG’s defensive projections to SOS.</strong><br />
This yields a week-by-week projection for each defense.</p>
<p><strong>3. Factor in home/away advantage/disadvantage.</strong><br />
Middling defenses play better at home. How much better? We don’t really know, but the number was 31% in 2007 and 7% in 2008, so we’re going with 7%. This will give a boost to DTBC combinations that have a majority of the games at home.</p>
<p><strong>4. Run the numbers for the 171 combinations to find the top DTBC pairs.</strong><br />
Here the focus is not only which defenses have the best combined schedule, but also a real-world take on what kind of outlook the defenses in question have this season. For example, if the numbers show that a Team A/Team B combo is the best, but a Team A/Team C combo is comparable, and Team C has a better outlook for the season than Team B, we might recommend a Team A/Team C combo instead. That’s what we did last year (in recommending Seahawks/Bills instead of Saints/Bills since we were higher on the Seahawks than the Saints) and it worked out well.</p>
<p>So who came out on top?</p>
<p><a href="http://search.espn.go.com/aaron-kampman/photo/8" target="_blank"><img height="268" width="477" src="http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0224/nfl_i_kampman_576.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Cowboys (DT12, 14.05) and Packers (DT13, 14.12)</strong><br />
The Cowboys were DT9 last year and have a similar schedule in 2009. They added defensive end Igor Olshansky and linebacker Keith Brooking in the offseason and used five of their first seven picks on the defensive side of the ball. Wade Phillips is a defensive-minded coach and always seems to get the most out of his guys. The Cowboys should be solid again this season. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Packers are switching from a 4-3 (and a rather pathetic 4-3 at that) to Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme. The Packers were DT10 last year mostly because of their big play ability. (They scored 16+ points in four games.) They drafted B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews in the first round, and while Raji isn’t yet in camp, both players should have an impact this season. The key will be whether or not Aaron Kampman can adjust to OLB. They still have a strong secondary and a solid line, so if they can put together a pass rush and button up the run defense, they should be in for a strong year. It helps that they have a much easier schedule in 2009.</p>
<p>The Packers are the key to DTBC this season, as they are a part of 11 of the top 13 combinations. They combine well with the Jaguars, Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Titans, Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins and Redskins, so there are other options if you miss out on the Cowboys.</p>
<p>The Titans and Pats may already be gone, but Stalter is high on the Seahawks (undrafted), Dolphins (16.05) and Redskins (15.09) as defensive units that could take a big leap forward this season, and none of those teams will cost you much on draft day. He also thinks the Cards (14.05) will be a little better. FBG’s top recommendation (GB/ARI) came in 9th (150.4 fp) when we ran our numbers. </p>
<p>The other teams that combine well with the Cowboys are the Patriots, Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks and the Titans. If you miss out on the Packers but land the Cowboys, the Cards, Seahawks and Bucs may be available in rounds 14-16. Stalter isn&#8217;t particularly high on the Bucs, who lost defensive genius Monte Kiffin.</p>
<p>The following table shows which weeks you should start which teams. Teams with an asterisk project to outscore the other team in the combo by less than a point, so as the season wears on, and it becomes clear that the other team is playing better defense and/or has a better matchup, you may want to call an audible and start them instead.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/dtbc-table.gif"><img src="http://www.scoresreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/dtbc-table.gif" alt="" title="dtbc-table" width="350" height="220" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22564" /></a></p>
<p>Finally, for those that aren’t comfortable with going with a DTBC – maybe your league has a small roster size and carrying two defenses for the entire year would be difficult – here are our official DT rankings, broken into tiers:</p>
<p>1. Baltimore<br />
2. Pittsburgh<br />
3. Philadelphia<br />
4. San Diego<br />
5. Chicago</p>
<p>6. Minnesota<br />
7. Green Bay<br />
8. Tennessee<br />
9. New York Jets<br />
10. New England<br />
11. Dallas<br />
12. New York Giants</p>
<p>13. Tampa Bay<br />
14. Seattle<br />
15. Arizona<br />
16. Miami<br />
17. Washington<br />
18. Indianapolis</p>
<p>19. Buffalo<br />
20. Jacksonville<br />
21. Carolina<br />
22. Oakland<br />
23. Cleveland<br />
24. Houston<br />
25. Cincinnati<br />
26. Atlanta<br />
27. New Orleans</p>
<p>28. San Francisco<br />
29. Denver<br />
30. St. Louis<br />
31. Detroit<br />
32. Kansas City</p>
<p><a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/tag/2009-fantasy-football-preview/" target="_blank">All 2009 Fantasy Articles</a> | <a href="http://www.scoresreport.com/tag/2009-position-rankings/">2009 Position Rankings</a></p>
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		<title>Love &#8216;Em &amp; Leave &#8216;Em: Week 4</title>
		<link>http://www.scoresreport.com/2008/09/26/love-em-leave-em-week-4/</link>
		<comments>http://www.scoresreport.com/2008/09/26/love-em-leave-em-week-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:00:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paulsen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[External NFL]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=6423</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Ben Roethlisberger, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.</p>
<p><strong>LOVE ‘EM</strong></p>
<p><strong>QB:</strong> Trent Edwards (@ STL) has a great matchup with the Rams’ 30th-ranked pass defense. Edwards has been very steady in the first three games and is worth the start here unless you have a better alternative&#8230;Phllip Rivers (@ OAK) is playing well and should be in your lineup against a suspect Raiders defense&#8230;For the desperate, Damon Huard (vs. DEN) has a great matchup against a Broncos defense that has allowed 316 passing yards and 2.0 pass TD per game&#8230;Likewise, J.T. O’Sullivan (@ NO), JaMarcus Russell (vs. SD) and Brian Griese (vs. GB, who is without Al Harris) all have nice matchups this week, and are good fill ins for owners that need help at QB.</p>
<p><strong>RB:</strong> He’s a no-brainer, but just in case you have several great backs, be sure to have Marshawn Lynch (@ STL) in your lineup this week…The same goes for Larry Johnson (vs. DEN) who showed some life last week against the Falcons; he has a nice matchup with the Broncos&#8230;Chris Perry (vs. CLE), Selvin Young (@ KC), Steve Slaton (@ JAX) and Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. HOU) also have good matchups this week.</p>
<p><strong>WR:</strong> Lee Evans (@ STL) is a nice start this week against a bad Rams secondary&#8230;Dwayne Bowe (vs. DEN) and DeSean Jackson (@ CHI) each have nice matchups against secondaries that were torched last week. Bowe is an every week starter and Jackson is getting there&#8230;Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers (@ OAK), go up against an Oakland pass defense which is talented, but just hasn’t been able to put it together thus far&#8230;Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson (@ NO) are sneaky good starts against a Saints defense that has struggled against the pass (259 yards, 1.3 pass TD allowed)&#8230;The Tampa Bay receivers (Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard) are also crafty starts against a Packers defense that is without its cornerstone cornerback, Al Harris.</p>
<p><strong>LEAVE ‘EM</strong></p>
<p><strong>QB:</strong> Joe Flacco (@ PIT) shouldn’t sniff your starting lineup, not when he faces a tough Steelers defense this week&#8230;Kyle Orton (vs. PHI) faces an Eagles defense that is blitzing the hell out of their opponents&#8230;Gus Frerotte (@ TEN) has to try to find passing lanes in a Titans defense that has held opponents to an average of 151 passing yards and 0.3 pass TD per game this season&#8230;If you have a good alternative (i.e. Edwards, Rivers, Rodgers, etc.), it’s not a bad idea to bench Ben Roethlisberger (vs. BAL) who has a very unattractive matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed an average of just 92 yards passing and 0.3 pass TD on the season.</p>
<p><strong>RB:</strong> Willis McGahee (@ PIT) had a pretty good Week 3, but he has a bad matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that has yielded just 64 yards and 0.3 TD on the ground this season&#8230;Likewise, Rashard Mendenhall (vs. BAL) gets his first start against one of the best defenses in the league&#8230;I wouldn’t expect much out of LenDale White (vs. MIN) who makes a living between the tackles. The Vikings have two of the best tackles in the game, so Chris Johnson is the better bet to score some fantasy points in the passing game and/or on the edge.</p>
<p><strong>WR:</strong> Brandon Lloyd (vs. PHI) has had a nice couple of weeks, but expect him to return to Earth against an Eagles defense that is playing well&#8230;Bernard Berrian (@ TEN) is unlikely to breakout against the Titans’ suffocating pass defense…Lower your expectations for Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (vs. BAL), who are still startable, but not attractive options at WR against a very good Ravens defense.</p>
<p><strong>DTBWW</strong></p>
<p>Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense usually playing at home against a bad offense, and each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.</p>
<p>Here are this week’s picks:</p>
<p>Saints (vs. SF)<br />
Bengals (vs. CLE)</p>
<p><em>Last week’s picks:</p>
<p>Falcons: 14 PA + 2 sacks + 3 INTs + 1 INT return TD = 15 fantasy points<br />
49ers: 13 PA + 4 sacks + 2 INT = 10 fantasy points</em></p>
<p><strong>ONE FINAL NOTE</strong></p>
<p>If you&#8217;re disappointed with your kicker, pick up Matt Prater (DEN) or John Carney (NYG). Prater plays for the Broncos, who have one of the best offenses in the league. It looks like they&#8217;ll be in a ton of shootouts this season, so expect Prater to score plenty of points. Likewise, Carney is a good option (though not quite as good as Prater), as the Giants regularly put up a lot of points.</p>
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