College Football Week 15, NFL Week 14 Free Picks
SEC Championship Game, 4:00PM ET
Both Missouri and Auburn were predicted to finish near the bottom of their respective divisions in the SEC and yet both shocked the masses by meeting in the SEC title game. Even though this is an even matchup, all anyone can talk about is Auburn after the Tigers pulled off the upset over Alabama last Saturday. A very underrated Mizzou team isn’t getting the attention it deserves. Dorial Green-Beckham and L’Damian Washington create mismatch problems against Auburn’s smaller defensive backs, and Mizzou owns one of the most balanced offenses in the nation led by proficient QB James Franklin. On the other side, Auburn’s rushing attack has been a headache for opponents all season, which includes Alabama and its stout front seven last weekend. That said, Mizzou has an athletic front seven capable of stretching out Auburn’s ground attack and at least limiting its effect. Mizzou won’t be able to contain Auburn because nobody has. But if it can build a lead with its passing game and force Auburn to be somewhat one-dimensional, Mizzou will win this game. Mizzou is 4-0 against the spread in its last four conference games, 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall, and 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.
FREE PICK: MISSOURI +1
Big Ten Championship Game, 8:17PM ET
Based on Michigan State’s vastly underrated defense, many expect this game to be low-scoring. But Ohio State struggled with Michigan’s offense last week despite Devin Gardner’s regression all season. Yes, you can throw out the records when Ohio State and Michigan meet. Thus, it wasn’t shocking that the Wolverines hung with the Buckeyes on their home turf last week. But what was surprising is that Gardner put on a show and a Michigan offense that hadn’t been firing on all cylinders in over a month racked up 41 points on the Buckeyes. Despite Michigan State’s success this season defensively, Braxton Miller and that Ohio State offense will get theirs in the end. Granted, the Big Ten has only held two championship games in its existence. But both games sailed over the total as Wisconsin edged Michigan State 42-39 in 2011 and the Badgers thumped Nebraska 70-31 last year. Look for more fireworks on Saturday night at Lucas Oil.
FREE PICK: OVER 51.5
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, 12:00PM ET
The only reason this contest could wind up being close is because its a rivalry game and the Sooners’ defense should keep things interesting, at least at the start. But Oklahoma’s offense has been punchless in big games this season, unless you consider its 38-point outburst over an overrated Texas Tech team back in October. The Sooners could only muster 12 points versus Baylor in early November and scored 20 in a 36-20 loss to Texas in mid-October. If Oklahoma State’s offense is firing on all cylinders, this one should get ugly in the second half. The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread in their last six conference games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Look for OK State to roll.
FREE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -10
Panthers vs. Saints, 8:30PM ET
The Saints were embarrassed in Seattle on Monday night so look for Sean Payton’s squad to come out fired up with first place in the NFC South up for grabs on Sunday night. Carolina’s defense is criminally underrated but New Orleans’ offense operates at another level at home compared to on the road. Payton is a more aggressive play-caller, Drew Brees is a more accurate passer, and the skill position players are usually unstoppable in their one-on-one matchups. The Saints are 21-6 against the spread in their last 27 home games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The only reason the spread has been set as low as it has is because New Orleans played so poorly on a national stage last Monday. The Saints represent value.
FREE PICK: SAINTS -3
Posted in: College Football, NFL
Tags: Auburn Tigers, Carolina Panthers, college football free picks, Drew Brees, Football Free Betting Picks, free picks, Free Picks betting, Missouri Tigers, New Orleans Saints, nfl free picks, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Officiating controversies dominate this week’s NFL games
The photo on the right has everyone talking today, though the one on the left shows how holding is out of control with offensive linemen as officials will only call it from time to time when it’s blatant. The call at the end of the Patriots-Panthers game last night is highlighted in the photo on the right. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was mugged by Luke Kuechly in the end zone but the refs picked up the flag as the pass was intercepted in a spot where the refs said Gronk couldn’t get the ball. But Gronk had zero chance because Kuechly was all over him. At the very least there should have been a holding call.
The call in the photo below was also controversial, as the roughing the quarterback call against the 49ers helped Drew Brees keep a drive to win the game. I agree with many who feel the NFL is ruining the game with some of the pathetic personal fouls calls, particularly when defenders just barely touch the quarterback. But here, the defenders bicep directly hit the neck of Drew Brees. Brees could have been seriously hurt on that play, and it’s precisely the type of hit the NFL is trying to penalize, so I understood that particular call.
College Football Week 11, NFL Week 10 Free Picks
LSU vs. Alabama, 8:00PM ET
This shouldn’t be the typical LSU-Alabama defensive slugfest for four quarters. The Tigers have had communication issues in their defensive backfield all season, which has led to some big plays for the opposition, and their pass rush has been inconsistent as well. On the other side, the Tide’s secondary is thin and the defense as a whole hasn’t looked as dominant as it has in recent years. But perhaps the biggest difference in this year’s matchup compared to recent meetings is that LSU finally has a quarterback capable of making plays down the field. Zach Mettenberger has given the Tigers a true vertical passing game and with that, scoring shouldn’t be an issue in this one.
FREE PICK: OVER 54.5
Houston vs. Central Florida, 7:00PM ET
Despite being 7-0 and 4-0 in conference play, Houston has received no love from oddsmakers. That’s been great for bettors, however, as the Cougars have covered the number in all but one game this season (last week versus South Florida when they won but failed to cover as a 19-point favorite). Houston is 5-0 against the spread in its last five road games and 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week. The Cougars are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in November and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. Take the points.
FREE PICK: HOUSTON +12.5
Cowboys vs. Saints, 8:30PM ET
When teams are able to generate pressure from the interior of their defensive line and push the pocket into Drew Brees’ face, he struggles. That’s what happened last week when the Jets shocked the Saints in East Rutherford. That said, the Cowboys don’t employ Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson or Quinton Coples on their defensive line, so Brees and the Saints should have a bounce back game on Sunday night. New Orleans is 20-6 against the spread in its last 26 home games, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games versus NFC opponents and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games in Week 10. The Saints are simply a different team at home and should win this one by a touchdown-plus.
FREE PICK: SAINTS -7
Raiders vs. Giants, 1:00PM ET
Let’s see, neither of these teams can run the ball with much success and both defenses have been downright brutal this season – smells like an over to me. The Raiders allowed Nick Foles to throw for seven touchdown passes last week and while Eli Manning is in the midst of another down season, he should pick apart Oakland’s ragtag secondary. The over is 4-1 in the Giants’ last five home games and 5-2 in the Raiders’ last seven games in November. This one should sail over.
FREE PICK: OVER 44
Posted in: College Football, NFL
Tags: Alabama Crimson Tide, Alabama vs. LSU, college football free picks, College football odds, Dallas Cowboys, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, free picks, LSU Tigers, New Orleans Saints, nfl free picks, NFL odds
College Football Week 10, NFL Week 9 Free Picks
Miami vs. Florida State, 8:00PM ET
These are two very different 7-0 teams. On one side you have the Hurricanes, who trailed in the fourth quarter in each of their last two games. On the other you had Seminoles, who have scored 40 or more points in seven consecutive games and the closet thing they came to losing was beating Boston College by double-digit points. Miami’s offense has been inconsistent of late and while its defense has held strong since the start of the season, no opponent has been a hurdle for Heisman candidate Jameis Winston. The Seminoles are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games and 4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points.
FREE PICK: FLORIDA STATE -21
Iowa State vs. Kansas State, 3:30PM ET
Outside of the Miami-FSU tilt on Saturday night, there aren’t many sexy matchups on the Week 10 schedule. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. Kansas State is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games following a straight up win while Iowa State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The road team is also 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the underdog is 4-1-1 against the number in the last six meetings. The Cyclones are 1-6 on the year but take a closer look at their losses prior to their beat down at Baylor and last week versus Oklahoma State. They covered rather easily against Texas Tech and should have beaten Texas if it weren’t for a last-second collapse. The Wildcats, meanwhile, couldn’t be further from the team that opened the 2012 season winning its first 10 games. Take the points on this inflated spread.
FREE PICK: IOWA STATE +17
Saints vs. Jets, 1:00PM ET
One would think that with this being the “Ryan Bowl” that we’ll see plenty of defense. But who knows the tendencies of the Ryan-led defenses better than the offenses for the Saints and Jets? Despite Jimmy Graham playing on an injured foot, Drew Brees threw for five touchdowns last week in a win over Buffalo, including two TD passes to his banged up tight end. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Jets’ last six games overall, 4-1 in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and 13-5-2 in their last 20 games in November. With New York’s front seven taking away the Saints’ running game, look for Brees to pick on the Jets’ secondary. This game won’t lack for big plays.
FREE PICK: OVER 45.5
Chargers vs. Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Washington’s defense has been putrid this season while allowing 32.7 points per game (31st in the NFL). In fact, the over is 7-2-1 in Washington’s last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game (its allowed over 80 points the past two weeks ago), and 7-3 in its last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. On the other side, the over is 7-1 in the Chargers’ last eight games in Week 9 and 39-18-4 in their lat 61 road games. Points shouldn’t be a problem on Sunday in Washington.
FREE PICK: OVER 51
Posted in: College Football, NFL
Tags: college football free picks, Drew Brees, Florida State Seminoles, Florida State vs Miami, football betting free picks, free picks, Iowa State vs Kansas State, Jameis Winston, jimmy graham, Miami Hurricanes, New Orleans Saints, nfl free picks, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Washington Redskins
Ten NFL storylines to follow this Offseason
From a slew of head-coaching changes to an unpredictable draft (even more so than usual), there’s no shortage of storylines to keep an eye on this NFL offseason. Here are 10 to follow over the next few months.
1. RGIII’s health.
Robert Griffin III vows to be ready by Week 1 of the regular season but in addition to damaging both his LCL and ACL, the dynamic quarterback also suffered a medial meniscus tear in the Redskins’ playoff loss to the Seahawks. While Adrian Peterson proved that ACL tears aren’t always a two-year injury, “All Day” was also a medical marvel. We’re talking about a guy who suffered a sports hernia injury in Week 10 and questioned whether or not he would be able to continue by Week 16, only to rush for 596 yards over the Vikings’ final four games (including playoffs). Not everyone is Adrian Peterson.
According to reports, RGIII was seen walking without a limp at “Media Week” down in New Orleans. But no matter how quickly he’s progressing with his rehab, the Redskins need to first be concerned with his the long-term health. If they rush him back and he suffers even further damage to his knee(s), his career could be in jeopardy. Mike Shanahan and Co. have a couple of months to evaluate the situation but at some point they’re going to be faced with the decision of whether or not to place RGIII on the regular season PUP list. While that would cost them their starting quarterback for the first six weeks of the season, riding Kirk Cousins over that stretch is a lot better than installing him as the franchise signal caller because RGIII’s knees are shot. For the Redskins, there’s more at stake here than just six weeks.
2. Newsome’s unenviable task of re-constructing the Ravens.
Whether anyone thinks Joe Flacco should be paid like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees is rather moot. The going rate these days for franchise quarterbacks is $20 million per season, and Flacco proved in the postseason that he’s Baltimore’s franchise player. He may never put up the same jaw-dropping numbers that Brees has, but Flacco is worth his weight in gold to a team like the Ravens, who consistently draft well and will continue to compete under John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome. When you find a quarterback in this league (particularly a quarterback coming off one of the finest postseason performances in NFL history), you hang onto him. And in order to hang onto Flacco, the Ravens will pay the $20-plus million-a-year asking price.
No, the real storyline in Baltimore is whether or not Newsome can build another Super Bowl contender after he gets done paying Flacco. Ed Reed, Paul Kruger, Dannell Ellerbe and Bryant McKinnie all helped Baltimore win the Super Bowl this year and all four of them are unrestricted free agents this offseason. Receiver Anquan Boldin is also set to make $6 million, so he could be forced to either restructure his deal or become a cap casualty. (He said he’ll retire if Baltimore releases him.) Newsome build two entirely different Super Bowl winners over the past 12 years. But this offseason might offer him his biggest challenge to date. As one of the finest general managers in the NFL, Newsome is certainly up for the challenge but the pressure will also be on Harbaugh and his staff to win with younger players as Baltimore re-stocks through the draft.
3. No consensus No. 1 pick.
Ask 10 NFL analysts who they have rated No. 1 in this year’s draft and you might be supplied with 10 different answers. Some believe Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel is the safest pick in the draft but if the Chiefs re-sign Branden Albert than they have no use for Joeckel at No. 1. Besides, some think Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher is the best offensive tackle in the draft, not Joeckel.
Georgia’s Jarvis Jones, Texas A&M’s Damontre Moore and even Florida State’s Bjorn Werner’s names are atop some analyst’s rankings. Why so much uncertainty? Point to the fact that there’s no consensus top quarterback in his year’s draft class. Twelve of the last 15 first-overall selections have been quarterbacks, with only Jake Long (2008), Mario Williams (2006) and Courtney Brown (2000) being the exceptions. With no potential franchise signal caller to be had, the ultimate crapshoot is even more unpredictable than ever this year.
4. Veteran quarterbacks in limbo.
Flacco is the best free agent quarterback this offseason but the Ravens won’t allow him to escape Baltimore without at least slapping him with the franchise tag. That means backups will litter the open market, unless you still consider guys like Jason Campbell, Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Moore capable starters. (And why would you?)
The more intriguing names are Alex Smith, Michael Vick and Matt Flynn, who are all currently under contract but could become available either via trade or release at some point this offseason. While the 49ers will certainly honor Smith’s desire to start elsewhere, at the end of the day they don’t owe him anything (non-monetarily, that is). If they don’t acquire what they feel to be decent compensation for the 28-year-old veteran, they could use him as insurance behind Colin Kaepernick for another season. That may not be fair for Smith, but the Niners will ultimately do what’s best for the franchise.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in: NFL
Tags: 2013 NFL draft, 2013 NFL offseason, Ahmad Bradshaw, Alex Smith, Anquan Boldin, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brian Urlacher, Christian Ponder, Danny Amendola, Drew Brees, Dwayne Bowe, Eric Fisher, Greg Jennings, Jeff Fisher, Joe Flacco, joe flacco contract, Luke Joekel, Matt Flynn, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Mike Singletary rams, Mike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, NFL column, NFL Free agency 2013, NFL offseason storylines, Percy Harvin, Percy Harvin trade, RGIII, Robert Griffin III, Sean Payton, St. Louis Rams, Steven Jackson, Tony Gonzalez, Washington Redskins, Wes Welker