Certain players take a lot of criticism for dropped passes. James Jones was one of those guys in 2010, especially after he missed an opportunity for a huge gainer in Super Bowl XLV.

The Packers have to decide what to do with Jones this offseason. There was a report that they didn’t offer him a restricted free agent tender, but he says they did. This got me thinking — just how bad were Jones’ drops this year?

The number of passes that a WR drops is not a stat that is widely available. I found this table over at the Washington Post, which allowed me to calculate each player’s drops as a percentage of their targets:

While this is not a list that a player wants to be on at all, Jones wasn’t terrible this year in terms of drop %. He fared as well as Reggie Wayne, and wasn’t even the biggest butterfingers on his own team. The normally sure-handed Donald Driver (8.1%) earned that title.

I’ve always liked Jones and thought he would eventually take over for Driver once he retired. That role may now go to Jordy Nelson, but there’s no doubt that Jones can be a productive receiver in Green Bay’s offense with Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. He has good strength and quickness and is able to get open, which is why his drops probably seem worse than they are. And with his reputation not reflective of his actual performance, the Packers may be able to get him at a discount this offseason.

Donald Driver was added to the Packers’ injury report on Thursday due to a problem with his quad, but Mike McCarthy says he would be shocked if his starting receiver doesn’t play in the Super Bowl.

I’d also be shocked if Driver doesn’t play, as the injury doesn’t sound serious enough to hold him out. That said, how effective will he be? If he’s being held out of practice (even for precautionary measures), then it stands to reason that he’s not at full strength. Will his injury have an effect on the Packers’ passing game?

It’ll be interesting to see what coverages Dick LeBeau uses on Sunday. The Steelers run mostly a cover-2 like the Bears, although LeBeau knows that his corners will also have to man-up in certain situations, which may be a problem seeing as how Bryant McFadden is dealing with an abdominal injury.

With Driver hurt, will LeBeau use Ike Taylor on Greg Jennings and take his chances with McFadden on Driver? Or will he want Taylor to take away Driver and have McFadden cover Jennings with safety help over the top?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pittsburgh go to their nickel or even dime package plenty of times throughout the night. But LeBeau wants to avoid the dime as much as possible because that means Lawrence Timmons, a good cover linebacker, comes off the field in favor of Anthony Madison. That’s an advantage for the Packers, just as it was when the Patriots crushed Pittsburgh 39-26 back in November when the Steelers used a lot of dime.

Assuming Driver’s injury isn’t a major concern, the Packers must get the Steelers out of their base defense as much as possible. Again, it’s a major advantage to them to face Pittsburgh’s nickel and dime units because it limits what LeBeau can do with his front seven.

In our final sponsored post for T.G.I. Friday’s, here are five questions surrounding the Packers and Steelers as they prepare for Super Bowl XLV.

1. Can the Steelers’ O-line hold up?
While the team hasn’t officially ruled him out, it appears as though center Maurkice Pouncey won’t play on Sunday. That means Doug Legursky will once again take his place, just as he did in the AFC title game when Pouncey first suffered the high ankle sprain. Legursky could probably start for many teams around the league, but he’s not the same player Pouncey is. He’s not as strong at the point of attack and he isn’t the mauler Pouncey is in the running game. There’s no doubt Legursky will have his hands full against Packers’ NT B.J. Raji, who has had quite the postseason so far. Of course, Legursky might not be the Steelers’ biggest problem along their offensive line. People forget that they’re starting two backup offensive tackles in Flozell Adams and Jonathan Scott, and the latter could have a ton of problems with Clay Matthews. Granted, the Steelers have averaged nearly four touchdowns thus far in the postseason, so clearly they’ve been able to mask their weaknesses. That said, whether or not their O-line can hold up against the Packers’ stout pass-rush is arguably the biggest question surrounding their chances of winning.

2. Will the Packers be able to slow Mendenhall?
When Rashard Mendenhall rushed for over 80 yards this season (including in the playoffs), the Steelers were 6-1. The Packers had trouble this year with power rushing attacks. When teams were patient with the running game and kept pounding the edges of Green Bay’s defense, they had a fair amount of success. The Packers yielded 4.5 yards per carry this season, which was among the worst in the NFL in that category. If the Steelers can get Mendenhall going early, they’ll accomplish a couple of things in the process. For starters, they’ll leave Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s high-powered passing game on the sidelines. The Steelers will also be able to control the tempo of the game and if Green Bay’s safeties have to come up and play run support, then Pittsburgh could open up the play action pass. The Packers must stop Mendenhall.

3. Can the Steelers’ corners match up?
Ike Taylor isn’t a playmaker in the sense that he’ll record a ton of interceptions every year, but he’s as steady as they come in coverage. He certainly has his work cut out for him this Sunday when he lines up opposite Greg Jennings, but the Steelers don’t have to worry much about Taylor. The same can’t be said on the other side, where Bryant McFadden has been dealing with an abdominal injury. He says he’s 100%, but we’ll find out whether that’s true or not on Sunday. Either way, expect Green Bay to attack both McFadden and nickel back William Gay early and often. The Packers want to be able to spread the field against the Steelers and keep Gay in the game as much as possible. Pittsburgh does its most damage when it can keep its base defense on the field and use linebackers LaMarr Woodley and/or James Harrison as pass-rushers. Whether or not Taylor, McFadden and Gay can be physical with Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones is the question. Teams like the Eagles and Falcons couldn’t, which is why they’ll be at home this Sunday.

4. Can McCarthy avoid being conservative?
Mike McCarthy has a habit of sitting on leads after his team builds them. He did it against the Eagles in the Wildcard Round and it almost cost his team a victory. The following week, he stayed aggressive with his playcalling and decision-making against the Falcons and Green Bay won by nearly four touchdowns. He tried to stay aggressive against the Bears in the second half, but to Chicago’s credit, its defense played great. How will McCarthy handle coaching in his first Super Bowl? Mike Tomlin has more experience and already has a ring, so the pressure is on McCarthy in his first go-around. If the Packers are able to build a lead, will he play conservative or will he keep his foot on the gas? Pittsburgh has a habit of winning close games in the final minutes, so it would be best if Green Bay avoided having the outcome be decided on the final drive.

When I saw that oddsmakers had made the Packers 2.5-point favorites for Super Bowl XLV, my immediate reaction was: “Pittsburgh’s an underdog? Ha! Give me the Steelers…you’re welcome.”

Why wouldn’t you take the Steelers on Sunday? They’ve played in two Super Bowls the past six years and won them both. They have a more experienced head coach who oversees a more experienced quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in the “big one” and thanks to Dick LeBeau’s guidance, Pittsburgh’s defense often resembles an immovable force.

But then I got to thinking: Tom Brady lost in the Super Bowl, as did Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. Bill Belichick has lost in the championship, as has Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher and even Tom Landry.

Experience flies out the window once that ball has been kicked off the tee at the start of the game. What football essentially comes down to is execution, avoiding mistakes and beating the guy across from you.

Both of these teams can execute. Both of these teams can limit mistakes and both of these teams have the players on each side of the ball that can win individual battles. Which team will accomplish those three feats on Sunday is anyone’s guess, and that’s the great thing about this particular matchup – it’s so even.

But when you get down to the brass tacks, the Steelers have a big problem along their offensive line. Losing Maurkice Pouncey hurts, but having two offensive tackles that are below average pass-blockers is a bigger problem when you consider the Packers finished second in the league in sacks. Granted, Pittsburgh finished first in that category but I have more faith in Green Bay’s O-line protecting Aaron Rodgers than I do the Steelers’ front five protecting Big Ben.

The Steelers can be had through the air, too. The Packers will have their hands full with LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison, but Rodgers is skilled at recognizing where the pressure is coming from and getting the ball out of his hand quickly. He can pick a defense apart whether he has time or not, which is something Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez can’t do.

If the Packers can get the Steelers’ base defense off the field by spreading them out with four-or-five receiver sets, then Green Bay will have an advantage. Trying to run the ball against Pittsburgh is often a losing proposition. But attacking guys like Bryant McFadden and William Gay isn’t, especially when a team like Green Bay employs receivers as skilled as Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones.

Granted, for Green Bay to win it must stop Rashard Mendenhall. The Packers have had trouble with power running games this year and the Steelers are 6-1 when Mendenhall rushes for over 80 yards. They can’t allow Pittsburgh to control the tempo of the game and leave the Packers’ offense on the sidelines. Limiting Mendenhall’s production will be key.

But with all of that in mind, strengths on strengths I like the Packers and their weaknesses scare me much less than Pittsburgh’s. I like B.J. Raji over Doug Legursky. I like Clay Matthews over Jonathan Scott and/or Flozell Adams. I like Mike McCarthy over Mike Tom…ok no, I don’t like McCarthy over Tomlin. Quite frankly, McCarthy scares me. But the man has put together some fantastic game plans over the past couple of weeks so as long as we don’t see Mr. Conservative on Sunday, then I like the Pack.

Packers 24, Steelers 20.

Aaron Rodgers completed 28-of-39 passes for 348 yards and three touchdowns as the Packers shredded the Lions 34-12 on Thanksgiving Day.

Thanks to a three-game winning streak, Green Bay is now 7-4 and if the playoffs were to start today, they’d be in as one of the Wild Card teams. They were helped last night when the Giants (a conference foe) lost to the Broncos in Denver.

The Packers have benefited from having one of the softest schedules in the league, although they do have to play the Ravens, Steelers and Cardinals before the season is finished. Still, if they can beat one of those teams and then handle their business against the Bears and Seahawks (two teams Green Bay should beat), then the Pack should make the playoffs.

One thing that was apparent yesterday is that Rodgers has more time to throw. Granted, the Lions don’t offer much of a pass rush but the Packers’ O-line is starting to protect Rodgers better and give him time to find stellar receivers Donald Driver and Aaron Rodgers.

The defense has also rebounded from its embarrassing effort against Tampa Bay a few weeks ago. The Packers held Dallas to only seven points three weeks ago and then forced five turnovers against Detroit yesterday.

If the offensive line can continue to play at a somewhat respectable level and the defense can resemble Hyde more than Jekyll, then the Packers could be a tough out come postseason time.

Photo from fOTOGLIF
]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/27/packers-back-in-playoff-hunt/feed/ 0 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/25/packers-find-their-running-game-in-win-over-horrendous-browns/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/25/packers-find-their-running-game-in-win-over-horrendous-browns/#comments Sun, 25 Oct 2009 22:09:02 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=27525

For the second consecutive week, the Packers whipped a bad opponent as they routed the Browns 31-3 on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes in the win, including a 45-yarder to Spencer Havner, a 71-yarder to Donald Driver and a 5-yarder to James Jones.

But the story for the Packers was their running game, as they totaled 202 yards on the ground. Ryan Grant rushed for 148 yards on 27 carries and Brandon Jackson chipped in 31 rushing yards on nine carries. The Packers’ O-line is still incredibly banged up and vulnerable, but if they can run the ball every week as well as they did today, then they won’t have to worry about teams pinning their ears back to get after Rodgers.

The Packers are starting to build confidence. Granted, they’re building confidence against the trash of the NFL, but they’re building confidence nonetheless. They still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record (they beat the Bears, but that was in the opener), but they’re crushing bad teams.

And make no mistake about it – the Browns are a bad football team. In fact, they’re one of the most offensively inept teams I’ve ever wasted time watching. Nobody kills a potential scoring drive like Derek Anderson and unless Josh Cribbs scores on a kick return or in the Wildcat, the Browns don’t score period.

Eric Mangini has a lot of work to do to getting this Cleveland team to respectable. I know at times the Browns have been competitive this season, but they were a total disaster today.

Several media outlets including SI.com and ESPN.com have reported that Packers’ receiver Donald Driver “ripped” or “trashed” the Bears’ receiving corps on a recent radio interview. But further examination of his comments might suggest otherwise.

This is what Driver said in the national radio interview last week on Sirius NFL Radio:

“I think Chicago did a great job, and Lovie Smith went out there and got Jay Cutler to lead this team, but one thing they don’t have is they don’t have the receiver group,” Driver said. “They have the running back, they have the offensive line and they have a great defense. But you’re going to have to need receivers to make plays down the field, and they don’t have that right now. So I can see on our end we have all of that on our offense. And then you go back to look at Minnesota. Minnesota has a great running game, but they just don’t have the top-of-the-line quarterback that they need. So I’m hoping my guy doesn’t go over there, but if he does then I wish the best for him.”

Does that sound like Driver was trashing the Bears receivers to anyone? He’s essentially saying what everyone already knows – the Bears don’t have the best set of receivers. In fact, one would even dare to say it’s a weakness for them.

When I first read that Driver “ripped the Bears receiving corps” on SI.com, I saw the quote and said “meh,” and moved on. But then I was recently in my car and a couple of Chicago radio hosts were talking about the topic and one of them (you’ll have to excuse me for not catching which jockey it was on which station but I was merely skimming through the AM dial looking for a ballgame) suggested that Driver shouldn’t provide the Bears with any bulletin board material and essentially should keep quiet. Then I read a similar headline to this story in ESPN’s “rumors” section as I did on SI: “Driver trashes Bears receivers.”

Seriously? Driver’s comments were the skim milk variety of trashing an opponent. Again, he’s not stating anything that we (including probably the Bears) don’t already know and I hardly deem what he said as “bulletin board material.” I’m shocked that this has caught fire as much as it has.