2009 NFL Week 7 Picks & Predictions

Instead of limiting myself to only four games like I have the previous weeks, I’ve decided to channel my inner Peter King and make predictions (with smaller write ups) on every contest on the NFL schedule this week.

49ers at Texans, 1:00PM ET
It had to have been a long two weeks for San Francisco’s players after the Falcons drubbed the Niners 45-10 in Week 5. Mike Singletary will have his team more focused and I think we’ll see a great defensive effort from San Fran this Sunday to slow down a potent Houston offensive attack.
Odds: Texans –3.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Texans 17.

Packers at Browns, 1:00PM ET
This will be a closer game than most think. The Packers could be looking ahead to a home date with the Vikings next Sunday, although in the end Cleveland’s offense is putrid and while Green Bay has been inconsistent defensively this year, I think they’ll do enough to get the Pack a victory.
Odds: Packers –9.
Prediction: Packers 24, Browns 16.

Chargers at Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
Ron Rivera has no clue on how to get San Diego’s defense back on track, but the young, inexperienced Kansas City secondary could have issues slowing down Philip Rivers and the Bolts’ passing game. Still, I think Matt Cassel and company pull off a surprise upset at home against a San Diego team coming off a short week.
Odds: Chargers –5
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 18.

Colts at Rams, 1:00PM ET
The Rams have given a nice effort the past two weeks, but this is a horrible matchup for them – even at home. Peyton Manning and company is well rested and the Indy defense will harass Marc Bulger all game.
Odds: Colts –14
Prediction: Colts 34, Rams 14.

Read the rest of this entry »

Henne, Wildcat help Dolphins beat Jets in thriller

It’s usually wise to expect the unexpected in the NFL. That’s why I’m not going to act the least bit surprised that Rex Ryan’s defense looked befuddled on Monday night while trying to defend second year quarterback Chad Henne and the Dolphins’ Wildcat formation.

Thanks to Henne’s surprising accuracy (he completed 20 of his 26 pass attempts for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns) and the combination of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams running the Wildcat, the Dolphins topped the Jets 31-27 in one of the more entertaining games of the year.

All right I admit – I’m a little surprised that Ryan’s defense was little match for the Wildcat. After all, if there were one defensive mind in the NFL that could shut down that formation, it would be Ryan right? Then why whenever the Dolphins needed a big play in the fourth quarter to keep the chains moving did they successfully use the Wildcat? Why can no defensive guru figure this formation out?

The short answer is that Miami runs the Wildcat so well that even the stingiest of defensive coordinators can’t slow them down. Brown has been the perfect fit for the formation and even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, Williams still displays good burst when he runs. Simply put, the Dolphins have mastered the formation and will still give teams (any team, including Ryan’s Jets) fits while using it.

The Wildcat also helped open things up for Henne in the passing game. He wasn’t asked to do too much, but he came up with a couple of huge completions when Miami needed them, specifically on a 53-yard touchdown pass to Ted Ginn Jr. early in the fourth. It’s still early, but the Dolphins may have found their franchise quarterback.

On the other side, Mark Sanchez turned in his second poor outing in consecutive weeks. He certainly wasn’t as bad as he was last week in New Orleans, but he was shaky to say the least. He finished with only 172 yards on 12 of 24 passing, although he did throw a touchdown pass to the newly acquired Braylon Edwards, who looked like a player with a new lease on life while hauling in five receptions for 64 yards.

Sanchez was far from the reason the Jets lost, but it has been clear the past two weeks that defensive coordinators are starting to figure out how to game plan for him. This is when it’s important for a young quarterback to learn from what he’s seeing on the field and not lose confidence in his abilities. He didn’t turn the ball over tonight, which was big considering he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble against New Orleans last week. But Sanchez needs to continue to learn from his mistakes and move forward in his development.

Dolphins acquire Thigpen from Chiefs

According to the Chiefs’ official website, Kansas City traded quarterback Tyler Thigpen to the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick.

Miami was forced to make this move after Chad Pennington suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in a loss to the Chargers in Week 3. With only Chad Henne and Pat White on the depth chart, Thigpen gives the Dolphins more experience at the quarterback position.

That said, Henne will remain the Dolphins’ starter because the team wants to get a better look at the former second round pick out of Michigan. Given Pennington’s age (33) and injury history, there’s a good chance that Miami won’t re-sign him when he becomes a free agent in the offseason. But they still want to see whether or not Henne is capable of taking over the starting job before the jettison a veteran quarterback like Pennington, who led Miami to an AFC East title last season.

As for the Chiefs, they were hoping to acquire a fourth round pick in exchange for Thigpen this summer after they traded for Matt Cassel, but I doubt they got more than a fifth rounder from Miami.

Thigpen isn’t a bad fantasy quarterback. He was QB12 last year even though he was second string early in the season. His 18.8 fppg average was 10th-best in the league. He posted some good garbage time numbers for the Chiefs because they were trailing for most of the season. The job is Henne’s to start, but if he falters or gets injured, Thigpen could be a sneaky good pickup in deeper fantasy leagues.

Chad Pennington’s season likely over

ESPN’s Chris Mortensen is reporting that Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington’s season is likely over after he suffered a torn capsule in his right throwing shoulder in a loss on Sunday to the Chargers. Pennington is seeking a second opinion, but it looks like Chad Henne will be the full-time starter now in Miami.

The team has not yet confirmed the severity of the injury. But Dolphins TE Anthony Fasano told the AP earlier the team was preparing to move on with backup Chad Henne.

“We’re going to have to go out there with Henne, who is a lot less experienced,” Fasano said. “There is definitely going to be a learning curve for Henne. He can learn as much as he wants in a classroom, but until he’s out on the field, in-game experience he’s not going to learn.”

Rookie Pat White, who’s seen action in the Dolphins’ Wildcat package thus far, is the only other QB on the roster.

White would be an intriguing option to start, but he doesn’t have any experience running a pro style offense because he played at West Virginia, which ran a spread option attack. So the Dolphins are essentially forced to start Henne and keep using White in the Wildcat.

This is a massive blow to Miami’s season. Pennington was limited as a passer, but he’s one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the game just based on his ability to read defenses and get the ball out of his hands quickly.

Unless Henne turns out to be the next Tom Brady off the bench, the Dolphins are going to struggle to even going .500 this year. They’re already 0-3 and play in one of the toughest divisions in football.

The Patriots are down but not out in the AFC

Have you noticed people on the streets lately with more spring in their step, exchanging high-fives with one another, or smiling in your direction? No, they’re not trying to flirt with you. They’re probably a fan of an AFC team that doesn’t play in New England.

A story came out this week that George Lampman was taking advantage of the season-ending injury suffered by New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to earn some money. He owns a silk-screening printing company in Pittsburgh and decided to unveil a t-shirt lauding Kansas City Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard’s hit on Brady that knocked him out for the year. For $19.99, you can become an honorary member of the Pollard fan club with a commemorative t-shirt.

Not so fast football fans. Do not plan a traditional Irish funeral just yet for the Patriots. No need to sprinkle dirt over the casket and raise your glass in honor to of the end of their legacy. It’s too early to count the Pats out of the hunt for the Super Bowl.

We have talked ad nauseam about the impact of Brady’s injury on the balance of power in the AFC, but I can give three reasons not to give up on the Patriots just yet: Bill Belichick, the offense, and their schedule.

Coach Belichick is masterful in managing games on both sides of the ball and should be able to create a game plan to minimize Matt Cassel’s inexperience at the quarterback position. He will shorten the game by using the Patriots’ depth in the backfield (Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan) to run the football. The Patriots coaching staff will never ask Cassel to try to win the game on his own. Instead, they will ask him not to lose games by making costly mistakes.

In-game adjustments are critical for any team to have success in the NFL, and Belichick has a knack for devising schemes to either fix problems on the field immediately or attack weaknesses he has noticed in the first few series of a game. No NFL coach can adjust better to the flow of a game than Belichick.

And let’s not forget Cassel is taking over the reins of one of the top offenses in NFL history. They gave the impression last season that they could score points at will without breaking a sweat. The passing game will be revised to exploit Cassel’s strengths, and it doesn’t hurt to have Randy Moss and Wes Welker lining up at the wideout positions.

Plus, on paper, the Patriots have one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Pats will face the Niners, Rams, Raiders, and meet the Dolphins twice during the course of the season. Ten wins and a playoff berth are still within reach.

By Sunday night, we should have a better idea about the state of the AFC. We will see how the Patriots react to life in A.B. (After Brady) and also have a better understanding of how Cassel will adjust to his new reality. If they can get good play from their new quarterback, the Patriots will still be a factor in the AFC.

Related Posts