2012 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Preview
Saints @ 49ers, Saturday, 4:30PM ET
It’s no secret that the Saints have been a different team on the road this year than at home. As I pointed out in this week’s edition of “Five Questions…,” they’ve outscored opponents 329 to 143 at home this season and only 218 to 196 on the road. Sean Payton has seemingly been more conservative with his play calling as Drew Brees has thrown less touchdowns (29 to 17), more interceptions (6 to 8), has a lower average per pass attempt (8.75 to 7.99), and has been sacked more (8 to 16) on the road than at home. Gregg Williams’ defense doesn’t play with the same confidence that it does inside the Superdome either. It’s not that the Saints are a bad road team (they were 5-3 during the regular season), but they’re not the juggernaut they are at home. On the other side, there’s not much that San Francisco doesn’t do well defensively. They’re outstanding against the run, they get after the quarterback, and they’re solid in pass coverage. They also have a great special teams unit so if the Saints are sloppy on Saturday, they will fall. The question is whether or not the Niners will generate enough offense if the Saints start firing on all cylinders. San Fran doesn’t pass protect very well and if it can’t open up running lanes for Frank Gore, that’s when Alex Smith starts to get turnover-happy. It’ll be interesting to see how this matchup unfolds come Saturday.
Broncos @ Patriots, Saturday, 8:00PM ET
Tim Tebow better strap in tight because he’s not likely to see as much one-on-one coverage as Dick LeBeau showed him last week. Bill Belichick will likely keep a safety over top of Demaryius Thomas at all times and force Tebow to go through all of his reads. If he doesn’t and he starts chucking the ball up thinking he can beat New England deep like he did Pittsburgh, he could be in for a long night. On the other side, it’ll be interesting to see if Denver’s stout defense can rattle Tom Brady. One of the biggest reasons the Patriots lost in their first postseason game the last two years is because Baltimore and New York harassed Brady to know end. But New England’s pass protection has been better this season than it was last year, so if the Broncos can’t generate pressure then Brady could eat them alive. It would behoove Denver to jump out to an early lead like Miami and Buffalo did on New England the past two weeks. But with Tebow running the show, that could prove to be difficult.
Texans @ Ravens, Sunday, 1:00PM ET
This game is all about Houston’s defense. If Wade Phillips’ unit can’t slow down Ray Rice, force turnovers and create good field position for the offense, then the Texans’ season will end in Baltimore this Sunday. The Ravens’ run defense is the best in the league and they were stout in pass coverage as well. The combination of Arian Foster and T.J. Yates isn’t going to get the best of Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis. The best Yates can do is not turn the ball over and take what Baltimore gives him. Otherwise, if he’s forced to make plays then the Texans are in trouble. The Ravens were unbeatable at home this season and there are mismatches that they can take advantage of this weekend. As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead, it’s hard to envision the Ravens falling on Sunday.
Giants @ Packers, Sunday, 4:30PM ET
If the Giants play with the same confidence, swagger and determination this week at Lambeau as they did last Sunday versus the Falcons, then they have a shot. In fact, they already have a shot. The Giants have always been a dangerous underdog and when they think everyone is against them, they raise the level of their play ten-fold. It’s no coincidence that the Giants have played their best football over the past three weeks. They’re healthy and the strength of their defense (i.e. their defensive line) is now fully intact. As I’ve written so many times before, the way to beat an elite quarterback like Aaron Rodgers is to pressure him with your front four. If Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, Rocky Benard and Justin Tuck play with the same relentless attitude this week as they did the past three, the Giants will have a shot to pull off the upset. Because their offense is certainly capable of matching Green Bay score-for-score thanks to that receiving corps and the Packers’ suspect defense. That said, Green Bay will not hand the game over on a silver platter like Atlanta did last Sunday. The Falcons played not to lose. They were timid – scared even. Rodgers plays with reckless abandon and he’s not going to be afraid to take shots downfield against New York’s vulnerable secondary unlike Matt Ryan, who never once tried to throw deep. Atlanta never adjusted its opening game plan either. You can expect Mike McCarthy to change things up if the Giants are getting the better of the Packers early on. This is going to be a great matchup and a wild ride.
Posted in: NFL
Tags: 2012 nfl playoffs, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, Arian Foster, Bill Belichick, broncos vs patriots, Demaryius Thomas, Dick Lebeau, Drew Brees, Frank Gore, Giants vs Packers, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, NFL Divisional Round, NFL Playoffs, nfl playoffs preview, Osi Umenyiora, Ray Lewis, rocky benard, saints vs 49ers, Sean Payton, T.J. Yates, Terrell Suggs, Texans vs ravens, Tim Tebow, Tom Brady
How will Driver’s quad injury affect the Steelers’ coverage units?
Donald Driver was added to the Packers’ injury report on Thursday due to a problem with his quad, but Mike McCarthy says he would be shocked if his starting receiver doesn’t play in the Super Bowl.
I’d also be shocked if Driver doesn’t play, as the injury doesn’t sound serious enough to hold him out. That said, how effective will he be? If he’s being held out of practice (even for precautionary measures), then it stands to reason that he’s not at full strength. Will his injury have an effect on the Packers’ passing game?
It’ll be interesting to see what coverages Dick LeBeau uses on Sunday. The Steelers run mostly a cover-2 like the Bears, although LeBeau knows that his corners will also have to man-up in certain situations, which may be a problem seeing as how Bryant McFadden is dealing with an abdominal injury.
With Driver hurt, will LeBeau use Ike Taylor on Greg Jennings and take his chances with McFadden on Driver? Or will he want Taylor to take away Driver and have McFadden cover Jennings with safety help over the top?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pittsburgh go to their nickel or even dime package plenty of times throughout the night. But LeBeau wants to avoid the dime as much as possible because that means Lawrence Timmons, a good cover linebacker, comes off the field in favor of Anthony Madison. That’s an advantage for the Packers, just as it was when the Patriots crushed Pittsburgh 39-26 back in November when the Steelers used a lot of dime.
Assuming Driver’s injury isn’t a major concern, the Packers must get the Steelers out of their base defense as much as possible. Again, it’s a major advantage to them to face Pittsburgh’s nickel and dime units because it limits what LeBeau can do with his front seven.
Posted in: NFL
Tags: 2011 Super Bowl, Bryant McFadden, Dick Lebeau, Donald Driver, Donald Driver injury, Green Bay Packers, Greg Jennings, Ike Taylor, Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers, Super Bowl injuries, Super Bowl XLV
Five ways the Packers beat the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV
I’m not a NFL coordinator and therefore won’t act like I hold the secrets on how either team can win Super Bowl XLV. (Wait a minute – I don’t hold any secrets? What the fu…)
When it comes down to it, putting together a solid game plan is only half the battle. The players still have to execute and avoid mistakes and a great scheme won’t save a team that turns the ball over and commits penalties. But here are five ways the Packers can get the upper hand on the Steelers and take home the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday. (Don’t worry Pittsburgh fan, I’ll do one for the Steelers, too.)
1. Get the Steelers’ base defense off the field.
Mike McCarthy is a smart guy but he’s not going to throw anything at Dick LeBeau that the defensive coordinator hasn’t already seen in his 35-plus years of coaching. That’s why it’s important that McCarthy doesn’t overthink things. Yes, James Starks gives Green Bay’s offense more balance. But James Starks isn’t going to win Super Bowl XLV – not when Pittsburgh is allowing just 61.6 yards per game. The strength of the Steelers’ defense is its front seven. When LeBeau can keep his base on the field, he can disguise his pressure and be as aggressive as he wants to be. When opposing teams have had success against Pittsburgh, they’ve forced the Steelers into their nickel package early. That’s why the use of three-and-four receiver sets is vital for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has an outstanding release and he knows how to get the ball out of his hand quickly. Keeping a running back in to block will be key, as LeBeau will probably drum up pressure in efforts to keep Rodgers out of rhythm. But if the Packers can keep nickel back William Gay on the field and successfully attack Bryant McFadden (who was burned by Braylon Edwards earlier this season and who also has been dealing with an abdominal injury), then Green Bay should have plenty of success offensively. They certainly have the weapons to attack Pittsburgh’s secondary.
2. Shut down Mendenhall.
Excuse the simplicity of this point but it’s important: the Packers must stop Rashard Mendenhall because quite frankly, he may be the key to whether or not Pittsburgh wins on Sunday. When Mendenhall rushed for over 80 yards this season, the Steelers were 6-1 (which includes their win over the Jets in the AFC title game). In their four losses this year, Mendenhall rushed for only 79 (vs. Ravens), 71 (Saints), 50 (Patriots) and 99 yards (Jets). And in those losses, only once did he carry the ball over 20 times (against Baltimore in Week 4). Everyone saw what happened when the Packers took a two-touchdown lead against the Falcons in the Divisional Round: Michael Turner was rendered useless and Atlanta’s offense became one-dimensional. Green Bay’s run defense ranks a respectable 11th, but they’re allowing 107.7 yards per game this season. If Mendenhall rushes for a C-note, then the Packers could be in trouble because that could mean that the Steelers have control of the tempo. But take Mendenhall out (either with good offensive play or stout run defense) and Green Bay may win easily.
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Posted in: NFL, Super Bowl
Tags: 2011 Super Bowl, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Dick Lebeau, Doug Legursky, Flozell Adams, Green Bay Packers, James Starks, Maurkice Pouncey, Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall, Super Bowl Picks, Super Bowl Predictions, Super Bowl XLV, Super Bowl XLV Preview
Aaron Rodgers’ secret weapon vs. Steelers? Kurt Warner.
Kurt Warner completed 72 percent of his passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLIII two years ago. So if there were anyone that could help Aaron Rodgers try and master the Steelers’ defense, it would be him.
According to Rodgers, he’s already had at least one conversation with Warner and he hopes there are many more in the following week.
“I reached out to a couple of them. Kurt Warner’s been a great friend, really since I was drafted. And so I reached out to him about any advice he can give me this week, and the next week, it’s readily appreciated. I’m sure there will be more conversations with him. I talked to a number of buddies who played in the Super Bowl before, and I think it’s important to learn from their experiences and try and find ways to stay focused in the midst, I’m sure it’s going to be controlled chaos down there.”
If you’re a Packers fan, this is what you want to see out of your starting quarterback. He wants to win and in preparing for the game, he’s going to reach out to players who have been there before. Rodgers doesn’t have any Super Bowl experience and instead of winging it, he appears humble enough to ask for advice on how to handle the situation. Of the many attributes that he possesses, his willingness to learn will make him great for a long time.
On a related note, I’m highly intrigued to see what defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has in store for Rodgers next week. The Steelers’ secondary can be had, but they’re not going to allow the Packers’ receivers to have a free release off the ball like Atlanta and Chicago (at least in the first quarter) did. I expect Pittsburgh’s corners to try and jam Greg Jennings and Donald Driver at the line in effort to disrupt Rodgers’ rhythm. The Falcons’ defensive game plan was an absolute monstrosity and while the Bears learned from their early mistakes and corrected them, it’ll be interesting to see what LeBeau does from the start.
Speaking of LeBeau, he announced on Wednesday night that he only wants to coach the Steelers. His contract is set to expire and there’s speculation about his retirement but if he does come back, he promised that if he’s coaching, “it will be the Pittsburgh Steelers.”
Patriots hand out road map on how to beat Steelers’ defense
Entering Sunday night, most pundits would have agreed that the Steelers’ front seven is probably the best in football. Observers know that Pittsburgh can be had through the air (as long as you stayed away from Troy Polomalu), but that was if you figured out a way to neutralize their pass rush, of course.
Well, Tom Brady and the Patriots figured out a way to neutralize the Steelers’ rush in a lopsided 39-26 victory in Pittsburgh on Sunday night. And not only that, but they laid out a blueprint on how other teams can do the same.
Chris Collinsworth said it best during the broadcast when he mentioned how the Steelers “like to play in a phone booth.” They want teams to try to line up and run the ball right at them. And when they stop the run, they want their opponents to be one-dimensional so that defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau can disguise where the pressure is coming from and frustrate the quarterback.
But the Patriots turned their game with the Steelers into a track meet. Brady spread the ball out, worked the middle of the field, found receivers on the outside for quick gains and often set his offense up with short down-and-distances all night. His offensive line was also outstanding, as they picked up the Steelers’ blitzing linebackers and allowed Brady to work through all of his progressions.
Defenses can’t give any quarterback time to throw. When they give someone like Brady time, they might as well be signing their own death wish.
Granted, not every team can do what Bill Belichick’s Patriots can do. But the NFL is a copycat league and you can bet offensive coordinators that have the unenviable task of facing the Steelers over the next two months will be dissecting that tape. Pittsburgh won’t play that bad defensively every week, but suddenly they look a little vulnerable on that side of the ball.