This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back on Saturday for the preview of the Atlantic Division.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
By now, everyone knows that LeBron James is set to become a free agent next summer. Feeling the proverbial heat, the Cavs swung a trade for Shaquille O’Neal hoping that he’ll be able to put the team over the top. It would be tough for LeBron to justify bolting Cleveland if the franchise is coming off of a championship, so the Cavs are “all in.” In addition to acquiring Shaq, they signed Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and re-upped with Anderson Varejao. It might take some time for this roster to gel, but there’s no doubt that the Cavs have enough talent to go the distance. While making the transition from a declining Zydrunas Ilgauskas to a declining Shaq has its advantages, it’s going to be tough for LeBron to find driving lanes with Shaq and Varejao clogging the lane. Neither can shoot the ball effectively outside of 10 feet, so their defenders will be better able to get to the paint to help on LeBron. Look for the Cavs to run a lot of pick-and-rolls with LeBron and Shaq, which will force Shaq’s defender away from the basket. This should help, but there still is the matter of Varejao’s man defending the basket. It’s crucial that the Cavs get good shooting from Parker, Mo Williams, Delonte West and Daniel Gibson. Those players have to make the defense pay when it sags to help on LeBron. From a salary cap perspective, the Cavs realized that it wouldn’t do any good to have cap space if the payroll number keeps falling, and the Varejao signing ate up whatever space they would have otherwise had. In the unlikely event that Shaq turns out to be a complete disaster, they could always move him before the trade deadline in a last-ditch attempt to retool before the playoffs. For obvious reasons, of all the teams in the league, the Cavs may have the most riding on the 2009-10 season.

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In Part 2 of Bill Simmons’ “Almost Famous”-is-the-greatest-movie-of-the-decade spiel, he continues to take quotes from the movie and apply them to the 2009 NBA offseason. Here’s one about the Pistons…

47. Please don’t give him any more acid. Thank you.
To Joe Dumars. In the span of 14 months, he hired the wrong coach (Michael Curry), overpaid the wrong bench guys (Kwame Brown and Amir Johnson), traded the wrong star too early (Billups, who would have netted more than just an expiring cap figure near the deadline), extended the wrong star too early (Rip Hamilton), overrated the wrong young guy (Rodney Stuckey, who might not even be a point guard), threw away the wrong season (2008-09, when the East was more wide open than we thought), then made it up to Pistons fans by saying, “I just spent $94 million on two guys who will never make an All-Star team!” Shouldn’t you be worried when your top five guys (Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, Hamilton, Stuckey and Prince) are all perimeter guys who don’t rebound, play inside or make other guys better?

I too think that the Pistons overpaid for Gordon and Villanueva, who are certainly good offensive players, but really seem to struggle on the other end of the court. Dumars had the rep for being one of the savviest general managers in the league, but with these signings all the Pistons’ cap space is gone and they don’t have an inside presence.

The funny thing is that Dumars was pretty much bidding against himself for Gordon’s services (the Bulls didn’t even bother to make an offer) and the best Villanueva could have hoped for was a mid-level deal (from Cleveland?). This is one of the more interesting rebuilding projects going.

When the Pistons signed Ben Gordon, most reports pinned the contract at about $55 million over five seasons. But Chicago Now has the real numbers and they are a bit higher.

09-10 $10,000,000
10-11 $10,800,000
11-12 $11,600,000
12-13 $12,400,000
13-14 $13,200,000 (Player Option)
5 Years for $58,000,000.

He also has a clause for incentives which are considered unlikely (meaning he didn’t reach them last season), but I don’t specifically know what they are.

Ben Gordon came out ahead by taking the QO and was the first person to do so. Now, even looking at the 5/50 offer the Bulls made, Gordon was the clear winner by waiting even disregarding the circumstances that at the time of the 5/50 offer he was the best or second best player on a team expected to contend for a championship.

Gordon has a reputation for being a below average defender and he isn’t a playmaker. He’s a scorer, and sometimes he displays poor shot selection. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — I’m surprised that the Pistons made an offer this strong, especially since it turns out that the Bulls never even made an offer to Gordon this summer. I think Detroit will come to regret this contract, but only time will tell.

The NBA offseason is by no means over, but the lion’s share is behind us, so it’s a good time to take a look back at a few of the…um…let’s say “questionable” decisions of the summer. Here are my Top 10, in no particular order. Feel free to add to the list if I missed something.

1. Trevor Ariza plays spiteful hardball…and loses.
Let’s get this straight — the Lakers offered Ariza the same deal he was getting on the open market, and he refused since the Lakers could have offered more, but didn’t? Um, okay. David Lee (the agent, not the Knicks forward) says that Ariza wanted to go somewhere where he’d be “appreciated.” Lee overestimated the market for his client, and the Lakers quickly moved on to acquire Ron Artest. Now instead of playing for the world champs, Ariza is stuck in Houston on a team that faces a very uncertain future. Lee now says that Ariza turned down a deal worth $9 million more, but still picked Houston. It sounds to me like he’s just trying to save face.

2. Grizzlies acquire Zach Randolph.
Once the Clippers traded for Randolph (and his toxic contract) last season, I thought the bar for NBA general managers had hit a new low thanks to Mike Dunleavy and his wily ways. But Dunleavy proved that he wasn’t the dumbest GM in the league when he convinced the Memphis Grizzlies to take on the final two years Randolph’s contract at the tune of $33.3 million. Remember that $25 million or so of cap space that the Grizzlies were going to have next summer? Yeah, that’s down to about $8 million with this brilliant move. Just when it looked like Chris Wallace was going to rehab his image after the Pau Gasol trade — Marc Gasol panning out, trading for O.J. Mayo — he goes and does this. Sigh.

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He had a great run in Detroit, but it looks like Rasheed Wallace is leaving. Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated has the scoop:

Free agent forward Rasheed Wallace has agreed to sign with the Boston Celtics, Wallace’s agent, Bill Strickland, told SI.com on Sunday. Wallace, who chose the Celtics over San Antonio and Orlando, is believed to have agreed to a two-year deal for Boston’s mid-level exception.

A 14-year NBA veteran, Wallace averaged 12.0 points and 7.4 rebounds with the Detroit Pistons last season.

Well, I didn’t liked Rasheed until he was traded to Detroit during my years at Western Michigan University. Needless to say, I swiftly became a fan as I watched the Pistons rise to the top of the league for the first time since the days of Isaiah Thomas and company. He’s been a polarizing player in the NBA, strongly disliked by many and just as strongly adored by the remainder. Whether or not people like him, he’s quite a character and always entertaining in one way or another.

After the Pistons’ early exit from the playoffs this year, and of course foreshadowed by the Chauncey Billups trade, it’s easy to see the need for a restructuring in Detroit. They need a new core to their team. With Rasheed out, I wonder if Rip Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince will be next…

The Detroit Pistons have a ton of cap space heading into 2009 NBA free agency, and they apparently aren’t afraid to use it, agreeing in principle to contracts with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

Former Bulls guard Gordon will receive a five-year deal for between $55 million and $60 million, while former Bucks forward Villanueva gets a five-year deal for $40 million, sources told ESPN.com’s Chris Broussard.

Gordon rejected deals from Chicago in excess of $50 million each of the past two seasons. Milwaukee elected to let the 24-year-old Villanueva become an unrestricted free agent earlier this week, after the Bucks determined that matching any restricted free-agent offers would move the team closer to the luxury tax threshold and limit changing the roster.

It’s not surprising that the Pistons signed both of these players, but the value of the contracts seem a little high when taking the current economic climate into consideration. It seems like GM Joe Dumars is operating in a 2006 or 2007 mindset when the reality is that the demand for these players probably didn’t justify $11 million per season for Gordon and $8 millon per season for Villanueva.

There are only eight teams with significant cap space this summer — the Grizzlies, Pistons, Hawks, Thunder, Kings, Raptors, Blazers and Timberwolves — and Memphis, OKC and Minnesota weren’t expected to be big players this offseason. The Bulls were trying to re-sign Gordon, and they probably were in the same neighborhood of the two deals they offered over the last two years that averaged $10 million and $9 million per season, so Detroit may have felt they had to outbid Chicago to pry him away. But I just don’t think he’s worth it, given his defensive liabilities and his lack of size for an off guard.

As for Villanueva, he was intrigued with the possibility of playing with LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal in Cleveland, but they could only offer him a mid-level deal, which would probably start at around $5.5 million per season. Even though his new contract’s $8 million per season average is the first thing to jump out, we need to focus on the first season. The contract could very well start at $6 million and go up $1 million per season for five years, which would add up to $40 million. They needed to outbid the mid-level deal to convince Villanueva to join a non-contender. Still, that’s a big commitment for a player who has a reputation for being a poor defender and has had his work ethic questioned at time. But at 24, Villanueva is still learning and is already a proven scorer.

This Gordon signing may indicate that Rip Hamilton will be moved before next February’s trade deadline. Though he’s getting older, he’s still a highly efficient scorer and he’d definitely be able to help a contender. I doubt that it’s Dumars’ plan to have $22 million locked up per season at one position. If Hamilton is moved, then the Pistons would be building around a lineup of Rodney Stuckey, Gordon, Tayshaun Prince and Villanueva.

Per ESPN…

Hours before the start of NBA free agency, Detroit Pistons president Joe Dumars made a splash of a different sort Tuesday, firing coach Michael Curry after just one season amid ongoing concerns about Curry’s command of the locker room and fears that keeping him could hamper Detroit’s offseason business.

NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that the Pistons — projected to have more spending money than any team in the league when the market opens for business at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday — had been contemplating the move for weeks after Curry’s rocky debut season, and decided to go ahead with the change, in part to help maintain their position as the team with the most free-agent ammunition this summer.

The Pistons went 39-43 under Curry in a tumultuous 2008-09 campaign that ended with a first-round playoff sweep against Cleveland. Curry gradually lost support from some of Detroit’s veterans — most notably popular shooting guard Rip Hamilton — after he elected to move Hamilton to the bench to accommodate November trade acquisition Allen Iverson.

The article mentions Avery Johnson and Doug Collins (whose name is seemingly mentioned for every head coach opening) as possible replacements.

For a time, it seemed like it was inevitable that Carlos Boozer would opt out (or not opt in, in this case) and hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent. But the economic climate has changed and the market for his services does not appear to be as strong as it was once thought to be. Boozer might very well play another year in Utah.

Boozer has until 5 p.m. on Tuesday to decide whether to exercise a player option on his contract with the Utah Jazz. The contract is set to pay Boozer $12.7 million next season if he opts in. Could he make more than that on the open market?

For months it was assumed that Boozer would land in Detroit. But last week Pistons sources told ESPN.com that Boozer wasn’t the team’s highest priority and that if they pursued him, they weren’t willing to give him the $13-15 million a year he’s looking for.

The Jazz aren’t in a great position to re-sign him either. Utah has to sign another free agent, Paul Millsap, and possibly a second, Mehmet Okur, if he opts out of his contract. Okur’s agent told The Associated Press on Monday that his client was leaning toward opting out. Those two contracts would put the Jazz near the luxury tax threshold. It’s unlikely they would go over to re-sign Boozer.

“As soon as it looked like the Pistons were the only team with the money and desire to pay him,” one Eastern Conference GM said, “I knew Boozer would be changing his mind. Unless I knew for sure that the Pistons would pay me big bucks, you just can’t make that gamble. I fully expect him to be back with the Jazz next year.”

Earlier this week, I estimated Boozer’s market value at about $12-$13 million per season. I think that if he does opt out, he’d eventually get that kind of a contract because a team willing to spend would work out a sign-and-trade to acquire him. The problem there is that Utah would have to take on near-equal salary for the first year and that would potentially push them over the luxury tax threshold (assuming Mehmet Okur returns and the Jazz sign Paul Millsap to a lucrative deal).

Assuming the Pistons don’t step up with a deal averaging $10-$11 million, Boozer’s absolute worst case is signing a one-year mid-level deal (~$5.8 million), which would cost him about $7 million this season. If he plays another year in Utah, he’ll have the opportunity to prove that he can stay healthy and would join the vaunted free agent class of 2010, where there will be a greater market for his services. Teams are saving up for that summer, so Boozer would be a nice consolation prize for those teams hoping to add Chis Bosh or Amare Stoudemire.

The downside of staying in Utah for another season is the lack of the security. Is it better to sign a five-year deal at a discount (say, $11 million per season) and have a guaranteed $55 million or play another year in Utah and risk a career-ending injury for the prospect of signing for an extra $10-$15 million in 2010? There’s a saying — a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

This is the quandary that Boozer is in today. It’s a tough call.

His decision is due in a few hours.

Not so, at least according to Chad Ford.

Over the past few months, we’ve assumed Carlos Boozer is their primary target, but that might not be the case. A league source told me Tuesday that the Pistons’ free-agent strategy likely would preclude a run at Boozer.

The Pistons want to add several players to the roster and want to keep salaries at or less than $10 million per year. With Boozer likely demanding a deal in the $15 million to $16 million a year range, his contract demands are out of their league. Add in concerns about Boozer’s injury history, and I don’t think the Pistons will make a play for him.

Instead, you can look for them to make a run at Ben Gordon, try to re-sign Antonio McDyess and find one or two other players they can sign for smaller salaries.

That stance in Detroit could put Boozer in a tough position. If he opts out of his contract with the Jazz, he’s going to struggle to find any team far enough under the cap to offer him what he wants. And with the Jazz interested in keeping Paul Millsap, Boozer could be out of luck in Utah, too.

Chad Ford contradicts himself in this piece. He says that the Pistons won’t be willing to pay Boozer’s asking price ($15-$16 million per season), but then says that the market won’t support what Boozer is asking for.

With $23 million in cap space, why can’t the Pistons sign both Boozer and Gordon? I bet Boozer ultimately signs for $12-$13 million per season, while I think Gordon will sign for something in the $8-$9 million range (which may be tough to swallow, since he turned down a contract worth $10 million per season from the Bulls).

Both players are flawed. Boozer is a great power forward, but he’s injury prone. Over the past five years he has only played in 67% of his team’s games. For that reason, he’s not worth a max contract, so I don’t expect him to get one this summer. Gordon is a great scorer, but his shot selection is suspect sometimes and he doesn’t have a reputation for being a good defender. Is he really worth $10-$11 million per season? I don’t think so.

If the Pistons play their cards right, they could sign both players (assuming they want both players) and then move Rip Hamilton to a contender looking for some good outside shooting.

In a smallish move yesterday, the Pistons agreed to trade Amir Johnson to the Bucks for Fabricio Oberto, who has a contract that is only partially guaranteed, potentially freeing up a little more cap space. Still, I don’t understand why the Pistons would give up on the 22 year-old Johnson when they clearly need to bolster their front line. If moving Johnson ultimately results in the signing of Boozer and Gordon, then it will have paid off.

Chad Ford writes about why Ricky Rubio is being so selective in his workouts.

First of all, the idea that Rubio is the only one doing it is silly. James Harden has only worked out for four teams. Even the Knicks couldn’t get him in. Hasheem Thabeet will likely only work out for three. DeMar DeRozan has been really selective, and so has Stephen Curry.

It’s pretty simple as to why Rubio is being selective: He is going to have to pay a lot of money for the privilege to play in the NBA next season. His buyout will cost him something between $5 and $7 million of his own money. That’s a lot of money, especially when you consider that Rubio wasn’t making a ton of dough in Spain. He essentially will be signing over his paychecks for the next couple of years to his team in Spain.

The Kings have an obvious hole at point guard on a young team. It seems to be the place his camp wants him to land. If the Kings draft him, I don’t think there’s any question that Rubio would pay the buyout and come. The question is, will the Kings draft him? I think the odds are in Rubio’s favor, but it sounds like some in the organization still need to be convinced.

Rubio’s future might depend on something he has no control over — is Russell Westbrook a point guard? A statistical study I did a few weeks ago revealed that he was turnover-prone and shoot-first, though obviously as a young rookie, there is room for improvement. If the Thunder think he’s a point guard, then I doubt they take Rubio. They’ll take James Harden, who averaged 4.2 assists during his senior year even though he was taking 13 shots per game.

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