Bucs’ OC Greg Olson wants Caddy to be the featured back. Williams has been productive, but he’s injury-prone, and if the Bucs start giving him 25 touches a game, he’s probably going to break down. This is bad news for Derrick Ward in the short term, but in the long term, it might be a good thing. Ward could be the primary ballcarrier to close the season.

Brandon Marshall seems to be happy again. It’s amazing what a 4-0 start and a sick, game-winning TD catch will do for a guy. Marshall’s talent is undeniable, and it seems like he and HC Josh McDaniels have put the ill will behind them and have found a way to work together. Marshall’s upside is still limited somewhat by Kyle Orton (just ask Eddie Royal owners), but he has been productive of late and has worked his way back to being an every-week start in most formats.

Rashard Mendenhall should start this week. With Willie Parker likely out, look for another big game from Mendenhall as he faces the Lions’ 20th-ranked rush defense.

MBIII is back at practice. The Cowboys face the Chiefs this week, so it’s a nice matchup for the entire offense. Barber should be in most starting lineups, but Tashard Choice is likely to see a lot of work to keep Barber fresh. Choice has been productive, so there’s no reason not to use him.

Frank Gore on track to return in Week 7. The 49ers have a bye next week, so it looks like Sunday may be the last week that Glen Coffee is startable. He has a nice matchup with the 25th-ranked Falcons’ rush defense and should see plenty of work. Regardless, Gore owners should keep Coffee stashed as a handcuff.

Carolina Panthers:
Receiver Steve Smith is expected to miss at least two weeks with a strained shoulder after suffering the injury in practice on Monday. Dwayne Jarrett is expected to fill in for Smith while he’s out, which is kind of like going from a corvette to a station wagon. (Charlotte Observer)

Indianapolis Colts:
Safety Bob Sanders is expected to meet with orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews soon. Sanders had another clean up procedure done on his knee this offseason and the Colts don’t know when he’ll be healthy again. He hasn’t practiced or played in game since Week 16 of last year. (Indianapolis Star)

Kansas City Chiefs:
Receiver Dwayne Bowe isn’t currently practicing with the Chiefs’ starters and apparently is in new head coach Todd Haley’s doghouse. Haley appears to be making an example of Bowe, who hasn’t responded well to KC’s new disciplined training habits. (Kansas City Star)

New England Patriots:
Tom Brady has yet to miss one practice since returning to action following ACL and MCL surgery. Brady continues to work out with a brace on his knee, although he’ll likely have to play with the brace the rest of his career. (Boston Globe)

Tampa Bay Bucs:
Receiver Antonio Bryant will be out for the next 3-4 weeks with a torn meniscus in his knee. Bryant could miss the entire preseason, but is expected to be healthy by Week 1. Still, the Bucs are thin at receiver and are implementing a new offense so Bryant’s injury is of concern. (Pewter Report)

Earnest Graham is listed ahead of Derrick Ward on Tampa’s depth chart, but considering the Bucs paid Ward like a starter this offseason, it’s wise not to read too much into this. (Buccaneers.com)

Miami Dolphins:
Former Hawaii product Davone Bess has been starting ahead of Greg Camarillo in Miami. Carmarillo appears to be completely recovered from ACL surgery, but Miami likes Bess’ speed and playmaking ability and see him as a starting flanker. (Miami Herald)

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise� backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008…

Read the rest of this entry »

So you still want to draft a running back with your number one pick after we crunched the numbers to find that quarterbacks have become equally or more valuable in fantasy football? Well, I can’t blame anyone that goes the traditional route here, especially with guys like Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson looking like legitimate #1 picks. Here are last season’s Top 10 running backs in fantasy points, keeping in mind that this is based on my league, and stats vary from league to league:

1. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers—I know some players take a few years to develop, but I live in Tennessee and saw Williams play on TV a lot when he was with Memphis. I drafted him in 2006 because I knew what not everyone knew—his upside was tremendous. Of course, he had 501 yards and a TD that year. But once DeShaun Foster was gone, Williams exploded, and last year racked up 1639 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Potential realized, and there’s more where that came from despite Jonathan Stewart sharing the load.

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons—Turner “The Burner� finally got out from under LT’s shadow in San Diego and showed with his new team that he can be a #1 RB—in a big, big way. In fact, Turner out-rushed LT by almost 600 yards. Take that, AJ Smith.

3. Thomas Jones, New York Jets—Jones had a big year, with 1519 total yards and 15 scores. But something tells me to expect a substantial drop-off this year. I mean, this is the same guy who scored 1 rushing TD in 2007.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears—A rookie in 2008, Forte was a pleasant surprise and was basically the Bears’ entire offense. Now they have Jay Cutler at QB, which could mean just a bit less focus on the running game. Still, it’s the Bears, and plus Forte is just as valuable a receiver as he is a runner. Don’t expect a re-run of 2008 (1715 yards and 12 total touchdowns) but don’t expect a crappy season either.

5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings—He may be frequently injured but AP is about as explosive as any player in the NFL. In fact, he may be what everyone expected Reggie Bush to be. Who? Yeah, I know. Anyway, Peterson had 1885 all-purpose yards but only 10 TDs. This season, I’m looking for 2400 yards from scrimmage and 15-20 scores. I can feel it.

6. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles—Off-season surgery is either going to hamper Westbrook or make him better. I’ll still take a Brian Westbrook at 70% than, say, a Willis McGahee at 100%. When Westbook is on the field (1338 total yards, 54 catches, 14 total TDs in ‘08), he’s fantasy money.

7. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants—Jacobs seemed to perform best when he shared carries with Derrick Ward, who is now in Tampa. Jacobs will still share carries, but with Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs had his second straight 1000-yard season (Ward also topped 1000 yards) with 15 touchdowns, and there is no reason to believe he’ll fall short of that in ’09. Well, unless the injury bug bites again.

8. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers—I’m still sick about drafting LT #1 last season in my league. I know that having the top pick doesn’t happen too often, and this guy just killed my season and probably everyone else’s that picked him first or second.
I mean, 1536 yards from scrimmage and 12 scores is not bad, but consider LT’s 2006 season—2323 overall yards and 31 TDs. Last year, LT was more like Thomas Jones in a good year.

9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars—Streaky yes, but a solid player who can run and catch passes effectively. MJD had 824 rushing yards, and 62 receptions for 565 with 14 total touchdowns. With Fred Taylor in New England, expect those numbers to jump this season.

10. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans—This guy was the touchdown bogart for Chris Johnson, with only 773 yards but 15 scores. Should we expect an encore? It’s hard to say, but Jeff Fisher is definitely a creature of habit.

The New York Giants have officially ruled out Brandon Jacobs playing against the Dallas Cowboys this week.

Giants running back Brandon Jacobs has been declared out of the Giants game Sunday night in Dallas.

Tom Coughlin made that announcement moments ago after Jacobs missed his third straight practice with an injured left knee.

“We just didn’t feel like hed be ready to play,” Coughlin said.

Derrick Ward will start in place of Jacobs. Asked if that meant Ahmad Bradshaw would get a little more work than usual, Coughlin said “Well see how the game goes.”

LB Jonathan Goff (hamstring) has also been ruled out and DT Fred Robbins (shoulder) will be listed as “questionable”.

The Cowboys’ defense has played better of late, but they’re still just average at best against the run. I wouldn’t trust Ward and Bradshaw to light up the fantasy scoreboard this week, although neither would necessarily be a bad start.

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. This week is especially important as owners everywhere will be scrambling to pick up the league’s surprise performers. With Tom Brady, Vince Young and Brodie Croyle missing significant time, QB is especially important this week.

I’ll use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

QUARTERBACKS

1. Matt Cassel (0.2)
Clearly, this is the pickup for Brady owners. They’re probably behind the eight ball and they might as well gamble with the guy taking Brady’s place. Can he play? Who knows, but he has a load of weapons around him.

2. Vince Young (46.8)
Yes, he’s hurt, but he doesn’t belong on the waiver wire in deep leagues.

3. Jeff Garcia (25.9)
Garcia is steady and a solid bye week fill in.

4. Trent Edwards (8.7)
Edwards is beginning to look like a starting NFL QB. I can see starting him against weaker defenses.

5. Matt Ryan (14.1)
Ryan played pretty well against a bad Lions secondary. He’ll have his ups and downs.

Here are a few fantasy observations from Thursday night’s game…

1. Clinton Portis was not involved in Washington’s passing game. He was targeted on one pass, which he caught, but it was negated by a penalty. For a player that caught 47 passes last year (that’s almost three a game), this is pretty worrisome, especially for Portis owners in PPR leagues. 84 yards on 23 carries isn’t great (3.7 ypc), but at least we don’t have to worry about him not getting enough touches. It’s clear that he’s the centerpiece of the offense, even to a fault.

2. Chris Cooley was targeted twice. He had an 18-yard gain negated by a penalty, so he didn’t get his first official catch until late in the second half. Jason Campbell spent most of his time looking to Santana Moss (5-37-1) and Antwaan Randle El (7-73). No other player caught more than a single pass. It’s important to note that Cooley has had poor games in each of the last three seasons, and he’s bounced back each time.

3. The Redskins’ new West Coast Offense looks rough. The running game is okay, but Portis was behind the eight ball a little bit because the Giants were daring Washington to throw the ball. The Redskins’ season depends mainly on how quickly they can learn and execute the WCO. In fairness, they faced a tough Giants defense in an emotional road game, and they should fare better in their next two games, which are against the Saints and Cardinals (and are both at home).

4. Eli Manning is still erratic. He seemed to hook up with Plaxico Burress (10-133) at will, but he didn’t throw for a score (though he did run for one), had one pass picked off and had three or four more that were almost intercepted. Eli is a bit of a gambler, and it doesn’t look like a Super Bowl win has changed that at all.

5. Derrick Ward is Brandon Jacobs’ backup. There has been a lot of talk about a “Thunder and Lightning” combo with Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, but Bradshaw didn’t get a carry in the game. Ward carried the ball nine times and had two catches, so he’s the better handcuff for Jacobs.

6. Both defenses looked pretty solid. Admirable job by the Redskins to hold a pretty good Giants offense to 16 points despite getting no help from their offense. The Giants flew around the ball and seemed to pressure Campbell on just about every play. The injuries at DE are a concern, but the Giants DT looks good as a whole.