The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 49ers: 1 SK + 1 INT = 2 fantasy points
#2 Bills: 6 PA (8) + 1 SK + 1 INT = 10 fp
#3 Cowboys: 4 SK = 4 fp

Unless you had the Bills, this was not a very good week for DTBWW. The Falcons made the 49ers look like a bunch of high schoolers, and while the Cowboys sacked Matt Cassel four times, they didn’t create any turnovers or keep points off the board.

Through Week 5, the top DTBWW pick is averaging 11.8 fantasy points, the #2 pick is averaging 9.2 fp and the #3 pick is averaging 9.6. Combining the three groups, DTBWW is averaging 10.2 fp on the season. Those are DT7 numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. (I’ve seen the Packers available on a few waiver wires, and if they’re available, I’d pick them first; they play the Lions at home.)

Pick #1: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. HOU)
The Texans are just a mediocre matchup, but the Bengals defense is playing very well of late, posting at least seven fantasy points in each of its five outings. The game is at home, so that should help.

Pick #2: Washington Redskins (vs. KC)
Again, the Chiefs aren’t a great matchup, but the Redskins defense has been pretty solid of late and if the offense can put a few drives together, Washington should have a nice day.

Pick #3: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. STL)
The Jags have one of the worst fantasy defenses in the league, but these are the Rams we’re talking about. Teams have averaged 16.4 fantasy points against St. Louis, so even the Jags should have a pretty nice day.

Bonus Pick: If you run out of options, the Bucs have a nice matchup at home against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers. Opposing defenses have scored 14.0 fp against Carolina this season.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 49ers: 0 PA (10) + 5 SK + 1 INT + 3 RET TD + 1 FR = 36 fantasy points
#2 Bengals: 2 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR + 1 RET TD = 10 fp
#3 Bills: 6 SK = 6 fp

Clearly, the 49ers were an awesome pick and they no doubt won a ton of games for fantasy owners this week, whether or not they were following DTBWW. The Bengals didn’t do quite as well from a sack/turnover aspect as I thought they would, but they did have a return TD, so that made for a good day. I didn’t mention it last week, but Indianapolis was an attractive pick too, but it looked like Dwight Freeney was going to be out, so I didn’t pick the Colts over the Bills.

Through three weeks, pick #1 has generated 14.3 fp, pick #2 has averaged 9.0 fp and pick #3 has scored 11.0 fp on average. On the whole, DTBWW has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. Those are DT4-type numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers (vs. ATL)
They’re the top defense in the league and they’re available in 70% of ESPN leagues. The Falcons are just a mediocre matchup for SF, but the 49ers are playing really good defense right now and they’re at home this week. If you picked them up last week, stick with them.

Pick #2: Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE)
The Bills were embarrassed against Miami, allowing 38 points and a ton of rushing yards. If this game were in Cleveland, I may not take the Bills here, but they always play pretty tough in Buffalo.

Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (@ KC)
After a pair of goose eggs to start the season, the Cowboys have bounced back with solid efforts the last two weeks, posting 21 fantasy points against the Panthers and nine against the Broncos last week. In Week 5, they face the Chiefs, who can’t run the ball and don’t have that many options in the passing game.

Bonus pick: Miami (vs. NYJ)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

Read the rest of this entry »

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s take a look at how they performed:

#1 Falcons: 1 SK + 1 FR + 1 INT = 3 fantasy points
#2 Redskins: 7 PA (6) + 1 SK + 1 FR = 8 fp
#3 Broncos: 6 PA (8) + 4 SK + 1 INT + 2 FR = 15 fp

So far, my #1 pick is averaging 3.5 fantasy points (not good), my #2 pick is averaging 11.0 points (very good) and my bonus pick is averaging 10.0 points (very good). The overall average is 8.2 fantasy points.

Here are this week’s recommendations. All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. If the Packers are available in your league, I’d start them (against the Rams) before any of these teams this week.

Pick #1: Broncos (@ OAK)
Through the first two weeks, the Broncos own the #2 fantasy defense. Is this going to last? Probably not. But after two great matchups with the Bengals and Browns, the Broncos get another potentially good matchup with the Oakland Raiders.

Pick #2: Redskins (@ DET)
Washington’s defense is solid, yet unspectacular. In the last three seasons, the Redskins have finished no higher than 19th in fantasy defense. But last week they held the Rams to just seven points, and this week they get a tasty matchup with the Detroit Lions.

Bonus Pick: Cowboys (vs. CAR)
Believe it or not, the Cowboys have failed to register a sack or create a turnover through two games. But with Jake Delhomme coming to town, that should change. I’d expect the Cowboys defense will be fired up and ready to play after a tough loss against the Giants last week. Wade Phillips is a good defensive coach, so he should be able to turn things around.

The idea is that each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. (All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.)

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s take a look at how they performed:

#1: Saints (vs. DET) = 1 SK + 3 INT = 4 fantasy points
#2: Seahawks (vs. STL) = 0 PA (10) + 3 SK + 1 FR = 14 fantasy points
#3: Cardinals (vs. SF) = 4 SK + 1 FR = 5 fantasy points

The Saints and Cardinals didn’t play up to expectations, but when the Seahawks are included, the trio averaged 7.7 fp, which is solid.

Here are my picks for this week:

Pick #1: Atlanta Falcons (vs. CAR)
The Eagles created seven turnovers against the Panthers last week and Jake Delhomme looked awful. No matter who Carolina has at QB, the deck is sacked against them as they face a Falcons defense that posted 14 fp against the conservative Dolphins.

Pick #2: Washington Redskins (vs. STL)
The Rams were brutal last week, and while the Redskins haven’t historically been able to generate a lot of turnovers, they should be able to handle the Rams after going toe to toe with a pretty good Giants’ offense last week.

Bonus Pick: Denver Broncos (vs. CLE)
The Broncos played well against a Bengals offense that has some firepower. I’d expect they’ll fare even better at home against Brady Quinn and the Browns.

Other defenses to consider: SEA (@ SF), SF (vs. SEA), IND (@ MIA)

Yesterday, I posted my DTBWW picks for Week 1 and thought I’d spend a little more time discussing the subject. I’ve used DTBWW quite a bit in the past, and it’s not always by design. Sometimes a defense that I’m counting on doesn’t perform up to snuff, so I need to look elsewhere for production. The idea is that every week, there is usually one or two mediocre or solid defenses on your league’s waiver wire that have a favorable matchup. A mediocre defense with a great matchup is just as good as having a great defense with a medicore matchup.

Last season, my top weekly DTBWW pick averaged 9.8 points per week, which over the course of the season equates to DT2 or DT3 numbers. My second pick averaged 6.1 points, which obviously isn’t as good, but still solid. The top two picks averaged 7.9 points, or DT6-type numbers. (If you’re wondering what scoring system I’m using, it’s the Antsports High Performance scoring system that awards one point per sack, fumble and interception, two points per safety and six points per defensive/special teams touchdown.)

The best way to pick a DTBWW candidate is to look for medicore/solid defenses that are facing bad offenses that allow a lot of sacks. Total sacks is the most consistent defensive scoring category week-to-week and it’s also a good indicator of quarterback pressure, which can lead to turnovers and touchdowns. It also helps to pick defenses that are playing at home, as most DTs play better at home than they do on the road.

Read the rest of this entry »

In a column I wrote on the last day of 2008, I pledged to use DTBWW as much as possible in 2009.

8. I will always play Defensive Team By Waiver Wire.
Unless I’m in a league where I have to pay for each transaction, I am going to go with DTBWW. In my weekly, Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em, I gave at least two recommendations each week for defenses that were widely available on the waiver wire, and on the whole, those recommendations did rather well. My top pick averaged 9.8 points, while my second pick averaged 6.1 points. Combined, they averaged 7.9 points, which would yield 126 points on the season – the same total as the #6 DT (NYG) scored this year. My top picks scored at a rate that would have racked up 157 points, one point behind the #2 DT (TEN). I typically go with a defense that is playing at home and is facing a sack-happy offensive line. And usually it works out.

The idea is that each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. (All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.)

Pick #1: Saints (vs. DET)
It’s hard not to like the Saints this week against the Lions, who went 0-16 last season and have a rookie QB starting his first NFL game. Detroit gave up 52 sacks last season and did little to shore up the offensive line in the offseason.

Pick #2: Seahawks (vs. STL)
Seattle is healthy and added LB Aaron Curry to an already solid defense. The Rams allowed 45 sacks in 2008, partly because Marc Bulger is not the most mobile of QBs.

Bonus Pick: Cardinals (vs. SF)
The 49ers led the lead in sacks allowed (55) so while Shaun Hill and Co. might be able to put some points on the board, he’s probably going to spend much of the afternoon picking himself up off the turf.

In next week’s DTBWW post, I’ll recap how these three picks performed.

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Ben Roethlisberger, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: Trent Edwards (@ STL) has a great matchup with the Rams’ 30th-ranked pass defense. Edwards has been very steady in the first three games and is worth the start here unless you have a better alternative…Phllip Rivers (@ OAK) is playing well and should be in your lineup against a suspect Raiders defense…For the desperate, Damon Huard (vs. DEN) has a great matchup against a Broncos defense that has allowed 316 passing yards and 2.0 pass TD per game…Likewise, J.T. O’Sullivan (@ NO), JaMarcus Russell (vs. SD) and Brian Griese (vs. GB, who is without Al Harris) all have nice matchups this week, and are good fill ins for owners that need help at QB.

RB: He’s a no-brainer, but just in case you have several great backs, be sure to have Marshawn Lynch (@ STL) in your lineup this week…The same goes for Larry Johnson (vs. DEN) who showed some life last week against the Falcons; he has a nice matchup with the Broncos…Chris Perry (vs. CLE), Selvin Young (@ KC), Steve Slaton (@ JAX) and Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. HOU) also have good matchups this week.

WR: Lee Evans (@ STL) is a nice start this week against a bad Rams secondary…Dwayne Bowe (vs. DEN) and DeSean Jackson (@ CHI) each have nice matchups against secondaries that were torched last week. Bowe is an every week starter and Jackson is getting there…Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers (@ OAK), go up against an Oakland pass defense which is talented, but just hasn’t been able to put it together thus far…Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson (@ NO) are sneaky good starts against a Saints defense that has struggled against the pass (259 yards, 1.3 pass TD allowed)…The Tampa Bay receivers (Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard) are also crafty starts against a Packers defense that is without its cornerstone cornerback, Al Harris.

LEAVE ‘EM

QB: Joe Flacco (@ PIT) shouldn’t sniff your starting lineup, not when he faces a tough Steelers defense this week…Kyle Orton (vs. PHI) faces an Eagles defense that is blitzing the hell out of their opponents…Gus Frerotte (@ TEN) has to try to find passing lanes in a Titans defense that has held opponents to an average of 151 passing yards and 0.3 pass TD per game this season…If you have a good alternative (i.e. Edwards, Rivers, Rodgers, etc.), it’s not a bad idea to bench Ben Roethlisberger (vs. BAL) who has a very unattractive matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed an average of just 92 yards passing and 0.3 pass TD on the season.

RB: Willis McGahee (@ PIT) had a pretty good Week 3, but he has a bad matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that has yielded just 64 yards and 0.3 TD on the ground this season…Likewise, Rashard Mendenhall (vs. BAL) gets his first start against one of the best defenses in the league…I wouldn’t expect much out of LenDale White (vs. MIN) who makes a living between the tackles. The Vikings have two of the best tackles in the game, so Chris Johnson is the better bet to score some fantasy points in the passing game and/or on the edge.

WR: Brandon Lloyd (vs. PHI) has had a nice couple of weeks, but expect him to return to Earth against an Eagles defense that is playing well…Bernard Berrian (@ TEN) is unlikely to breakout against the Titans’ suffocating pass defense…Lower your expectations for Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (vs. BAL), who are still startable, but not attractive options at WR against a very good Ravens defense.

DTBWW

Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense usually playing at home against a bad offense, and each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Here are this week’s picks:

Saints (vs. SF)
Bengals (vs. CLE)

Last week’s picks:

Falcons: 14 PA + 2 sacks + 3 INTs + 1 INT return TD = 15 fantasy points
49ers: 13 PA + 4 sacks + 2 INT = 10 fantasy points

ONE FINAL NOTE

If you’re disappointed with your kicker, pick up Matt Prater (DEN) or John Carney (NYG). Prater plays for the Broncos, who have one of the best offenses in the league. It looks like they’ll be in a ton of shootouts this season, so expect Prater to score plenty of points. Likewise, Carney is a good option (though not quite as good as Prater), as the Giants regularly put up a lot of points.