Back in August, I recommended a few DTBC combinations for fantasy owners to use throughout the season. My top recommendation was GB/DAL, who have combined to score 69 points through eight weeks (8.6 ppg). This combo started a bit slow, as Dallas posted a goose egg in Week 2, over the last three weeks, it has scored 44 combined points.

Still own these two defenses? You can still hold onto them, but Week 15 is looking a little rough as the Packers play in Pittsburgh and the Cowboys visit the Saints. Green Bay just isn’t putting much pressure on the QB, so Ben Roethlisberger may be able to sit back and pick apart the Packer secondary.

If don’t own a top tier defense (PHI, NO, MIN, BAL and PIT, now that they have Troy Polamalu back), you may want to consider acquiring two good but not great defenses that combine to have a favorable schedule down the stretch. Normally, it doesn’t make sense to carry two defenses, but now that most of the teams are past their byes, it’s not necessary to hold onto bye week fill-ins because you’re probably not going to need them.

There are eleven DTs that are owned in more than two-thirds of ESPN leagues making it somewhat unlikely that they’re available on your league’s waiver wire. This list includes the aforementioned six teams along with the Broncos, Packers, Giants, Jets, Bears and Colts. If you have one of these six, it might behoove you to grab a defense with a complementary schedule.

I’m targeting nine defenses — the Cardinals, Patriots, Texans, 49ers, Bengals, Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks and the Dolphins — that either mesh well with the Broncos, Packers, Giants and Jets, or with each other. These defenses are all ranked in the top 22 and are available in at least a third of ESPN fantasy leagues. These are defenses that relatively healthy and have had success in good matchups. Here’s a look:

If you have the Broncos (good matchups in Weeks 9, 10 and 15)…
…pick up the Cowboys (11, 12, 16), Cardinals (11, 15, 16), Dolphins (11, 14) or the Bengals (11, 12, 13). If you’re just eyeing a strong playoff run, pick up the Patriots (14, 16).

If you have the Packers (9, 12)…
…pick up the Bengals (11, 12, 13), the Texans (13, 15) or the Cardinals (11, 15, 16). Arizona would have you better positioned for the playoffs.

If you have the Giants (15, 16)…
…pick up the Falcons (9, 10), Bengals (11, 12, 13), or the Dolphins (11, 14). If you just want to be strong for a three-week playoff, pick up the Patriots (14, 16).

If you have the Jets (10, 12)…
…pick up the Cardinals (11, 15, 16), the Texans (13, 15) or the Patriots (14, 16). The Pats have a pretty good matchup in Week 15 as well, so you would be well positioned for the stretch run.

If you have the Bears (13)…
…cut them and pick up a couple of other defenses with a better combined schedule. The Bears defense just isn’t good enough to overcome its tough schedule.

If you have the Colts (15)…
…you can keep starting them, but take note that through Week 8 they have had the 4th-easiest schedule. Pick up the Cardinals (15, 16) or the Patriots (14, 16) to give yourself a fall back plan if they start to stink it up. They just lost Bob Sanders for the year.

Not in any of these situations? Consider picking up a pair of middling defenses from the table below with complementary schedules. The weeks where each team have good or great matchups are listed without an asterisk. Weeks with an asterisk represent matchups that are pretty good or solid. I’ve ranked each combination based on their pure strength of schedule (from Footballguys). If you feel better about one particular defense — for example, I like the Patriots the most — then bump them up a little bit. Combos without a rating are decent to bad.

If you’re team is looking really strong and is destined for the playoffs, then you can focus on finding a combo that has a great schedule in the fantasy postseason (Week 14-16). I’ve listed those combos in green (or a green box, if those combos — in this case ARI/MIA or NE/HOU — didn’t earn a rating).

I’m targeting the Patriots due to their terrific schedule during the fantasy playoffs (CAR, @ BUF, JAX), but if New England isn’t available, ARI/SEA, ARI/HOU and HOU/DAL all offer a nice combined schedule the rest of the way.

If your team isn’t in good shape and needs to make a run, you may want to grab one of the combos that has a good schedule over the next four or five weeks (ATL/CIN or ATL/DAL, for example) and hope that you can make a run. Another option is to play DTBWW, which is a weekly post here at TSR.

If you have any questions, fire away. I’ll do my best to answer them.

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Defenses are tough to predict year to year, so fantasy owners are generally better off using their middle round picks to build depth at the skill positions. An emerging strategy is to utilize a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) approach, which involves drafting two late-round defenses whose schedules combine well. The idea is to get top 5 or top 10 DT performance at a much cheaper price.

Last year, we provided three recommended DTBCs: 1) SEA/BUF, 2) BUF/NO and 3) BUF/GB.

Seahawks/Bills was our top recommendation, and while the combo didn’t set the world on fire, they performed well. Under a high performance scoring system, the duo combined for 132 fantasy points over the first 16 weeks, which outscored all but the top 6 defenses in 2008. However, when we account for the bye week fill in by adding the average points per game of DT13-DT32 (5.4 per game), DT7 (Minnesota) would have also outscored the Seahawks/Bills combination. Still, getting DT8 performance with two late round picks is nothing to sneeze at. The duo also performed well in Week 15 (9 points) and Week 16 (14 points), when it mattered most.

Our second recommendation (and also the Footballguys’ recommendation, one of the first sites – if not the first – to outline this approach) was the Bills/Saints. Unfortunately, this combo did not perform well, posting 112 points over 16 weeks, mostly due to the Saints’ struggles. The duo would have finished the season as DT15, which is pretty bad considering that the Bills alone finished DT17.

Our final recommendation – Packers/Bills – posted 144 points, which would have been good for DT5 in 2008. This duo didn’t perform particularly well in the playoffs, scoring just 10 points over the last three games, but on the whole, this was a terrific DTBC last year.

Looking ahead to this season, Footballguys recommends a Cardinals/Packers combo, and while it certainly looks like a good one, we have another that we’d recommend first. FBG factors for home/away advantage/disadvantage, but they only go so far. Two years ago, we looked at home/away as it relates to DTBC, and found that middling defenses (ranked #6-#25) scored at a 31% better clip when playing at home. In the 2008 season, that number fell to 7%. This is a much smaller impact, but still significant.

Here’s our methodology:

1. Take FBG’s strength of schedule for DT9 through DT27.
We included the Bengals and Browns because our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, is reasonably optimistic about the improvement those two defenses could show this year. We eliminated the top 8 defenses according to ADP – the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Bears, Jets, Giants, Vikings and Eagles – because they’re all going in the 12th round or earlier, and that’s just too soon to take a DT to be part of a committee.

2. Apply FBG’s defensive projections to SOS.
This yields a week-by-week projection for each defense.

3. Factor in home/away advantage/disadvantage.
Middling defenses play better at home. How much better? We don’t really know, but the number was 31% in 2007 and 7% in 2008, so we’re going with 7%. This will give a boost to DTBC combinations that have a majority of the games at home.

4. Run the numbers for the 171 combinations to find the top DTBC pairs.
Here the focus is not only which defenses have the best combined schedule, but also a real-world take on what kind of outlook the defenses in question have this season. For example, if the numbers show that a Team A/Team B combo is the best, but a Team A/Team C combo is comparable, and Team C has a better outlook for the season than Team B, we might recommend a Team A/Team C combo instead. That’s what we did last year (in recommending Seahawks/Bills instead of Saints/Bills since we were higher on the Seahawks than the Saints) and it worked out well.

So who came out on top?

Cowboys (DT12, 14.05) and Packers (DT13, 14.12)
The Cowboys were DT9 last year and have a similar schedule in 2009. They added defensive end Igor Olshansky and linebacker Keith Brooking in the offseason and used five of their first seven picks on the defensive side of the ball. Wade Phillips is a defensive-minded coach and always seems to get the most out of his guys. The Cowboys should be solid again this season.

Meanwhile, the Packers are switching from a 4-3 (and a rather pathetic 4-3 at that) to Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme. The Packers were DT10 last year mostly because of their big play ability. (They scored 16+ points in four games.) They drafted B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews in the first round, and while Raji isn’t yet in camp, both players should have an impact this season. The key will be whether or not Aaron Kampman can adjust to OLB. They still have a strong secondary and a solid line, so if they can put together a pass rush and button up the run defense, they should be in for a strong year. It helps that they have a much easier schedule in 2009.

The Packers are the key to DTBC this season, as they are a part of 11 of the top 13 combinations. They combine well with the Jaguars, Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Titans, Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins and Redskins, so there are other options if you miss out on the Cowboys.

The Titans and Pats may already be gone, but Stalter is high on the Seahawks (undrafted), Dolphins (16.05) and Redskins (15.09) as defensive units that could take a big leap forward this season, and none of those teams will cost you much on draft day. He also thinks the Cards (14.05) will be a little better. FBG’s top recommendation (GB/ARI) came in 9th (150.4 fp) when we ran our numbers.

The other teams that combine well with the Cowboys are the Patriots, Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks and the Titans. If you miss out on the Packers but land the Cowboys, the Cards, Seahawks and Bucs may be available in rounds 14-16. Stalter isn’t particularly high on the Bucs, who lost defensive genius Monte Kiffin.

The following table shows which weeks you should start which teams. Teams with an asterisk project to outscore the other team in the combo by less than a point, so as the season wears on, and it becomes clear that the other team is playing better defense and/or has a better matchup, you may want to call an audible and start them instead.

Finally, for those that aren’t comfortable with going with a DTBC – maybe your league has a small roster size and carrying two defenses for the entire year would be difficult – here are our official DT rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Philadelphia
4. San Diego
5. Chicago

6. Minnesota
7. Green Bay
8. Tennessee
9. New York Jets
10. New England
11. Dallas
12. New York Giants

13. Tampa Bay
14. Seattle
15. Arizona
16. Miami
17. Washington
18. Indianapolis

19. Buffalo
20. Jacksonville
21. Carolina
22. Oakland
23. Cleveland
24. Houston
25. Cincinnati
26. Atlanta
27. New Orleans

28. San Francisco
29. Denver
30. St. Louis
31. Detroit
32. Kansas City

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

LOVE ‘EM

QB: Trent Edwards (@ STL) has a great matchup with the Rams’ 30th-ranked pass defense. Edwards has been very steady in the first three games and is worth the start here unless you have a better alternative…Phllip Rivers (@ OAK) is playing well and should be in your lineup against a suspect Raiders defense…For the desperate, Damon Huard (vs. DEN) has a great matchup against a Broncos defense that has allowed 316 passing yards and 2.0 pass TD per game…Likewise, J.T. O’Sullivan (@ NO), JaMarcus Russell (vs. SD) and Brian Griese (vs. GB, who is without Al Harris) all have nice matchups this week, and are good fill ins for owners that need help at QB.

RB: He’s a no-brainer, but just in case you have several great backs, be sure to have Marshawn Lynch (@ STL) in your lineup this week…The same goes for Larry Johnson (vs. DEN) who showed some life last week against the Falcons; he has a nice matchup with the Broncos…Chris Perry (vs. CLE), Selvin Young (@ KC), Steve Slaton (@ JAX) and Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. HOU) also have good matchups this week.

WR: Lee Evans (@ STL) is a nice start this week against a bad Rams secondary…Dwayne Bowe (vs. DEN) and DeSean Jackson (@ CHI) each have nice matchups against secondaries that were torched last week. Bowe is an every week starter and Jackson is getting there…Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers (@ OAK), go up against an Oakland pass defense which is talented, but just hasn’t been able to put it together thus far…Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson (@ NO) are sneaky good starts against a Saints defense that has struggled against the pass (259 yards, 1.3 pass TD allowed)…The Tampa Bay receivers (Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard) are also crafty starts against a Packers defense that is without its cornerstone cornerback, Al Harris.

LEAVE ‘EM

QB: Joe Flacco (@ PIT) shouldn’t sniff your starting lineup, not when he faces a tough Steelers defense this week…Kyle Orton (vs. PHI) faces an Eagles defense that is blitzing the hell out of their opponents…Gus Frerotte (@ TEN) has to try to find passing lanes in a Titans defense that has held opponents to an average of 151 passing yards and 0.3 pass TD per game this season…If you have a good alternative (i.e. Edwards, Rivers, Rodgers, etc.), it’s not a bad idea to bench Ben Roethlisberger (vs. BAL) who has a very unattractive matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed an average of just 92 yards passing and 0.3 pass TD on the season.

RB: Willis McGahee (@ PIT) had a pretty good Week 3, but he has a bad matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that has yielded just 64 yards and 0.3 TD on the ground this season…Likewise, Rashard Mendenhall (vs. BAL) gets his first start against one of the best defenses in the league…I wouldn’t expect much out of LenDale White (vs. MIN) who makes a living between the tackles. The Vikings have two of the best tackles in the game, so Chris Johnson is the better bet to score some fantasy points in the passing game and/or on the edge.

WR: Brandon Lloyd (vs. PHI) has had a nice couple of weeks, but expect him to return to Earth against an Eagles defense that is playing well…Bernard Berrian (@ TEN) is unlikely to breakout against the Titans’ suffocating pass defense…Lower your expectations for Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (vs. BAL), who are still startable, but not attractive options at WR against a very good Ravens defense.

DTBWW

Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense usually playing at home against a bad offense, and each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Here are this week’s picks:

Saints (vs. SF)
Bengals (vs. CLE)

Last week’s picks:

Falcons: 14 PA + 2 sacks + 3 INTs + 1 INT return TD = 15 fantasy points
49ers: 13 PA + 4 sacks + 2 INT = 10 fantasy points

ONE FINAL NOTE

If you’re disappointed with your kicker, pick up Matt Prater (DEN) or John Carney (NYG). Prater plays for the Broncos, who have one of the best offenses in the league. It looks like they’ll be in a ton of shootouts this season, so expect Prater to score plenty of points. Likewise, Carney is a good option (though not quite as good as Prater), as the Giants regularly put up a lot of points.