So you still want to draft a running back with your number one pick after we crunched the numbers to find that quarterbacks have become equally or more valuable in fantasy football? Well, I can’t blame anyone that goes the traditional route here, especially with guys like Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson looking like legitimate #1 picks. Here are last season’s Top 10 running backs in fantasy points, keeping in mind that this is based on my league, and stats vary from league to league:

1. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers—I know some players take a few years to develop, but I live in Tennessee and saw Williams play on TV a lot when he was with Memphis. I drafted him in 2006 because I knew what not everyone knew—his upside was tremendous. Of course, he had 501 yards and a TD that year. But once DeShaun Foster was gone, Williams exploded, and last year racked up 1639 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Potential realized, and there’s more where that came from despite Jonathan Stewart sharing the load.

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons—Turner “The Burner� finally got out from under LT’s shadow in San Diego and showed with his new team that he can be a #1 RB—in a big, big way. In fact, Turner out-rushed LT by almost 600 yards. Take that, AJ Smith.

3. Thomas Jones, New York Jets—Jones had a big year, with 1519 total yards and 15 scores. But something tells me to expect a substantial drop-off this year. I mean, this is the same guy who scored 1 rushing TD in 2007.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears—A rookie in 2008, Forte was a pleasant surprise and was basically the Bears’ entire offense. Now they have Jay Cutler at QB, which could mean just a bit less focus on the running game. Still, it’s the Bears, and plus Forte is just as valuable a receiver as he is a runner. Don’t expect a re-run of 2008 (1715 yards and 12 total touchdowns) but don’t expect a crappy season either.

5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings—He may be frequently injured but AP is about as explosive as any player in the NFL. In fact, he may be what everyone expected Reggie Bush to be. Who? Yeah, I know. Anyway, Peterson had 1885 all-purpose yards but only 10 TDs. This season, I’m looking for 2400 yards from scrimmage and 15-20 scores. I can feel it.

6. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles—Off-season surgery is either going to hamper Westbrook or make him better. I’ll still take a Brian Westbrook at 70% than, say, a Willis McGahee at 100%. When Westbook is on the field (1338 total yards, 54 catches, 14 total TDs in ‘08), he’s fantasy money.

7. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants—Jacobs seemed to perform best when he shared carries with Derrick Ward, who is now in Tampa. Jacobs will still share carries, but with Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs had his second straight 1000-yard season (Ward also topped 1000 yards) with 15 touchdowns, and there is no reason to believe he’ll fall short of that in ’09. Well, unless the injury bug bites again.

8. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers—I’m still sick about drafting LT #1 last season in my league. I know that having the top pick doesn’t happen too often, and this guy just killed my season and probably everyone else’s that picked him first or second.
I mean, 1536 yards from scrimmage and 12 scores is not bad, but consider LT’s 2006 season—2323 overall yards and 31 TDs. Last year, LT was more like Thomas Jones in a good year.

9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars—Streaky yes, but a solid player who can run and catch passes effectively. MJD had 824 rushing yards, and 62 receptions for 565 with 14 total touchdowns. With Fred Taylor in New England, expect those numbers to jump this season.

10. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans—This guy was the touchdown bogart for Chris Johnson, with only 773 yards but 15 scores. Should we expect an encore? It’s hard to say, but Jeff Fisher is definitely a creature of habit.

Before I get to my Divisional Round Preview, I’d like to send all of the losers from Wild Card Weekend off the only way I know how: By jabbing them one final time.

Atlanta Falcons: Hey Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey, his name is Jerious Norwood. He’s #32 and he’s one of the best playmakers on your offense. Might want to think about using him more the next time an opposing defense figures out how to shut down Michael Turner.

Indianapolis Colts: Seven trips to the postseason in the last seven years and you only manage one Super Bowl appearance with a three-time MVP at quarterback? Dear Barbara…

Miami Dolphins: Chad, I love you man and I love your story this season. But you can’t force passes down field into double coverage and expect good things. You should have kept doing what you did all season and what you did in your first possession of the game – hit the high-percentage passes and let your receivers get the yardage.

Minnesota Vikings: Did anyone else scratch their head when Brad Childress declined a holding penalty on third down early in the first quarter that would have moved the Eagles on the edge of field goal range? Instead, it brought up forth down and David Akers drilled a 43-yarder to give Philly a 3-0 lead. Childress basically said, “I’m not sure if my defense can hold the Eagles on 3rd and 14 – better give up the field goal so we don’t give up a potential touchdown instead.� You never give your opponents points in the playoffs. Never. Not even a field goal. Force them back, force them to make a play and force them to earn the points.

Myself: I went 1-3 with my Wild Card Predictions last week. Seriously? You went with the Colts in the playoffs? A rookie in Matt Ryan? The Vikings over everyone’s sleeper team in the Eagles? You’re a freaking bum. (Ironically I went 3-1 in a family football pool because I came to my senses and picked San Diego and Philly.)

Moving on…

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (13-3)
Saturday, January 10, 4:30PM ET
Opening Odds: Titans –3
Over/Under: 34.5
Game Outlook:
No disrespect to the Giants and Eagles or any other team playing this weekend, but this is easily the best matchup on the divisional playoff schedule. Did you see what Ed Reed and the Ravens did to Chad Pennington and the Dolphins last week? They held them to only 276 total yards, forced five turnovers and surrendered only 52 rushing yards. And although they used a lot of gadget formations throughout the season, it’s not like Miami’s offense was a dud this year. Granted, the Titans have the seventh best rushing attack in the league and rookie Chris Johnson brings an added dimension to the field, but Mike Heimerdinger has his hands full this week trying to come up with a game plan to move the ball against a Baltimore defense allowing just over 15 points a game this season. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how rookie quarterback Joe Flacco does against the seventh best defense in the NFL. Flacco passed with flying colors last week while playing mistake-free and running for the game-clinching score in the fourth quarter. But he’ll have to do a hell of a lot more than complete 9 of 23 passes for 135 yards against a Tennessee defense that could have DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch back on their defensive line. If both players are in the lineup Saturday, Flacco is going to feel the heat up the middle and from the edges so he better get rid of the ball in a timely manner. Overall, this is the best defensive matchup of the year and this game will probably come down to who doesn’t turn the ball over.
X-Factor: Chris Johnson, Titans RB
The only time the Dolphins found success last week was when they used the Ravens’ aggressive style against them and slipped backs out in the flats. Pennington was able to hit Patrick Cobbs and company for seven to 10 yard gains and the Titans could employ the same method. Johnson is a homerun threat and more than capable of taking one to the house every play. Tennessee has to get the ball in this kid’s hands and force the Ravens to miss tackles in the open field, which they have the penchant for doing at times.
Prediction: Titans 16, Ravens 13.
I’m not going to bite on this potential upset. The Ravens’ defense is absolutely nasty, but Flacco worries me against a ball-hawking Tennessee secondary and I think the Titans are going to shut down Baltimore’s running game. This game comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes and I’ll take a veteran in Kerry Collins over the rook Flacco. (Word to the wise though, Kerry – stay away from Ed Reed’s side if you can.)

Thanks to John Kasay’s 42-yard field goal in the closing seconds of their 33-31 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, the Carolina Panthers won the NFC South Division and secured the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

After 45 minutes of play at the Superdome, the Panthers were already being fitted for their NFC South Championship T-shirts. But the Saints scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to take a 31-30 lead with just over three minutes remaining in the game. Carolina then drove into New Orleans’ territory and Kasay eventually knocked through the game winner.

With the No. 2 seed comes a first round bye for the Panthers and more importantly, home field advantage throughout the playoffs unless they meet the Giants in the NFC Championship Game. The Panthers were 8-0 at home this year and outscored opponents 234-111.

This is an incredibly dangerous team as it is, but the Panthers seem to be even deadlier at home. And while that could be said for most teams, the notion seems to especially apply to Carolina.

Come playoff time, anything can happen. But it’s hard to fathom that the Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles or Cowboys can march into Carolina and contain the Panthers’ explosive running game – or Steve Smith. John Fox’s team is going to be dangerous in January.

- You’ll never believe what former heavyweight boxing is just, well, just plain heavy. Mike Tyson is looking more like “King Hippo� these days than king of the ring. (SPORTSbyBROOKS.com)

- The Love of Sports comprised its “All NFL Surprise Team� with a few surprises…ha! Get it? Surprises? Yeah, yeah you get it. (The Love of Sports)

- Poor Braylon Edwards – he’s not feeling any love from the Cleveland Browns or their fans. Who knew the Browns’ fan base didn’t appreciate receivers who can’t hang onto the football? (Deadspin.com)

- Here’s a look at the most important players this college football bowl season. (AOL Sports)

- Apparently Mark Teixeira is holding up the free agency party. (The Bleacher Report)

- Who has been the Carolina Panthers’ MVP this season? DeAngelo Williams? Steve Smith? Julius Peppers? All fine choices, but they pale in comparison to the one, the only Vinny Testaverde. (Shutdown Corner)

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defensive lineman Greg White is just the latest athlete to change his name. And what name will he be signing checks with? Well none other than Stylez G. White, of course, after Michael J. Fox’s best friend in the movie Teen Wolf. Hey, I like it better than Ocho Cinco Johnson…I think. (Smarter Sports Blog)

NFL purists always say that teams with momentum heading into the postseason are always the most dangerous. Well after two impressive wins, their latest being a 30-10 victory over the Broncos on Sunday, the Carolina Panthers might be the most dangerous team in the NFC right now.

With all due respect to the New York Giants, Carolina has been the most impressive team in the NFC the last three weeks. In their last three games, the Panthers came back multiple times in a thrilling victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field, absolutely ran over the Buccaneers last Monday night and then handled Denver in convincing fashion on Sunday.

What has been the most impressive thing about Carolina the past three weeks is the way they’ve run the ball. Quarterback Jake Delhomme hasn’t necessarily been that impressive (Steve Smith has one again made Delhomme look better than he is), but he hasn’t needed to be because the running duo of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart has been so good. Plus, the Panthers’ defense has really tightened things up again, just in time for the playoffs.

The Panthers still have a tough road ahead of them because they have to travel to the Giants and Saints the next two weeks. But they also have a two-game lead over the Bucs and Falcons in the NFC South, meaning they have to win just one of their two remaining games to clinch the division. It’ll be interesting to see if the Panthers can not only can claim the NFC South crown, but also win out and achieve home field advantage throughout the postseason.

The Titans’ LenDale White is a bit peeved that the Carolina Panthers’ backfield tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart might have stolen a nickname that White came up with to describe he and teammate Chris Johnson’s running style.

Apparently, LenDale White of the Titans crafted the term “Smash and Dash” for himself and Chris Johnson a few weeks ago. And then Monday night on ESPN, there were signs rooting for “Smash and Dash,” referring to the Panthers’ tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. From ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky:

“If they want a nickname, I can nickname them: ‘Identity and Theft,’” said White, who’s successfully paired with the speedy rookie Chris Johnson this season. “I was upset because I made that phrase up myself. I mean I made it up. I don’t know about NFL Network and all those other guys. I heard somebody say, ‘Batman and Robin,’ that’s like cute, that’s for them. If they want that name they can have it. The ‘Smash and Dash’ is something I made up.”

“Identity and Theftâ€�? That is freaking hilarious! Between that and Terrell Owens’ “Dumb and Dumber” comment about Emmitt Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, there have been some outstanding athlete quotes this week.

Sunday’s Best: Panthers (4-1) at Buccaneers (3-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
This isn’t the sexiest matchup on the Week 6 schedule, but it’s a battle for first place in the NFC South. Carolina is coming off a 34-0 rout of the Chiefs, a game in which they held Larry Johnson to only two yards rushing, while Tampa dropped a close one in Denver. The Panthers can thank a healthy Jake Delhomme and a stingy run defense for their hot start this season. With Delhomme back under center and a nice 1-2 punch of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart in the backfield, the Panthers’ offense has been incredibly balanced this season and therefore, hard to stop. And Carolina’s front seven has kept opponents from averaging over 100 yards on the ground. The Bucs will go back to Jeff Garcia at quarterback with Brian Griese nursing an injured arm. It’ll be interesting to see if the Panthers take away Tampa’s 8th-best rushing attack, because the last time the Bucs couldn’t run the ball was against the Bears – a game in which Griese attempted 67 passes. Will Garcia have to do the same this week?

Upset Watch: Cowboys (4-1) at Cardinals (3-2), 4:15 PM ET FOX
I’m going right back to the well. In my primer last week, I warned to watch out for the Cards upsetting the previously unbeaten Bills. I’ll do the same this week as the Cowboys roll into the desert after almost blowing a 17-point lead to the Bengals last Sunday. Dallas has more talent than any other team in the NFC, but they’ve proven to be as fragile as T.O.’s emotions. Arizona flat out plays a different brand of football at home and could have wideout Anquan Boldin back this week, although it’s doubtful. Even without Boldin, the Cards have more than enough weapons to score on a Dallas defense that is giving up close to 23 points a game. The key obviously will be whether or not Arizona can stop the Cowboys’ high-powered offense. Dallas is racking up over 400 yards and 30 points a game and the Cards are just two games removed from surrendering 56 points to the Jets. Even if ‘Zona can’t pull off the upset, I would expect one wild shootout.

Intriguing Matchup: Patriots (3-1) at Chargers (2-3) 8:15 PM ET NBC
Remember when New England mocked Shawne Merriman’s “Lights Out� dance after a playoff win in San Diego a couple of years ago and hurt LaDainian Tomlinson’s feelings? The Pats return to the scene of the crime and no team plays with a bigger chip on their shoulder (and for really no reason) than the Chargers. Even though they won in convincing fashion against the 49ers last week, this is clearly a different Patriots team without Tom Brady. (What a statement, I know). It’ll be interesting to see if Matt Cassel can have a coming out party this weekend, because no team in the entire NFL is playing worse against the pass right now than San Diego.

Other Notable Games:
Bears (3-2) at Falcons (3-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
The last time rookie QB Matt Ryan faced the Tampa 2 defense he had his worst outing as a pro, throwing two interceptions in a loss to the Bucs in Week 2. He’ll get a chance for redemption this week against Chicago, a team that has typically owned Atlanta in the past.

Jaguars (2-3) at Broncos (4-1), 4:15 PM ET FOX
Big Ben and the Steelers lit up Jacksonville’s defense last week. Will Jay Cutler and the Broncos’ offense do the same on Sunday?

Ravens (2-2) at Colts (2-2), 1:00 PM ET CBS
Peyton Manning vs. Ray Lewis is always fun to watch.

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Ben Roethlisberger, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

START ‘EM

QB: Eli Manning (@ STL) has an excellent matchup with a Rams defense that allowed Donovan McNabb to throw for 361 yards and three TD last week. Also, Manning played better away from home last year, so the table is set for a very nice day…Phillip Rivers (@ DEN) has an interesting matchup against the Broncos, who looked great last week, but struggled against the pass last season. Rivers had a nice game in Week 1 against the Panthers, and he’ll probably have to throw the ball a lot to keep up with a dynamic Denver offense…Kurt Warner (vs. MIA) has a great matchup against a historically bad Dolphin defense that allowed 194 passing yards and two TD to Brett Favre and the Jets last week. Warner should be in for a nice day…Aaron Rodgers (@ DET) looked great on Monday night and faces a suspect Lions defense…For the desperate, Kerry Collins (@ CIN) has a great matchup with a Bengals secondary that has struggled to stop the pass over the last several years…For the super-desperate Joe Flacco (@ HOU) has a nice matchup as well.

RB: If Willis McGahee is out, Ray Rice (@ HOU) has a good matchup with a Texans defense that allowed a ton of yards to Willie Parker last week. If McGahee plays, we’re probably looking a split, which will hurt the value of both players…If Ryan Grant (@ DET) ends up playing, make sure he’s in your lineup (unless you have a far better option). The Lions gave up 220 rushing yards to Michael Turner and the Packers should find success in the ground game as well…Brandon Jacobs (@ STL) should find lots of running room against a bad Rams defense…Frank Gore (@ SEA), Willie Parker (@ CLE) and Marshawn Lynch (@ JAX) should have nice games as well.

WR: Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles (vs. NE) are good starts against a Pats defense that is struggling at CB…Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (@ CLE) should be in your lineup since they face the Browns, who have been bad against he pass for the last few seasons…Make room in your lineup for Joey Galloway (vs. ATL) who has a good matchup with a suspect Falcons pass defense…Santana Moss (vs. NO) has a nice matchup with a Saints defense that gave up some points to a conservative Bucs offense last week.

SIT ‘EM

QB: David Garrard (vs. BUF) struggled last week and a hot Bills defense (that shut down Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle offense) is coming to town…In the same game, Trent Edwards (@ JAX) doesn’t have a good matchup against a solid Jacskonville defense…Baltimore did a great job shutting down the Bengals’ high-octane passing game, and that doesn’t bode well for Matt Schaub (vs. BAL) and the rest of the Texans. I’d bench Schaub only if I had a solid option to go with.

RB: Jamal Lewis (vs. PIT) may find the running room is tough to find when he faces a good Steelers defense. He’s startable, but I’m not optimistic about his chances…Steve Slaton (vs. BAL) looks like he will get the start, but he faces a very tough Ravens defense. Bench him unless you are desperate…Neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart are particularly good starts against a Chicago defense that is normally very stout against he run.

WR: Lee Evans (@ JAX) is startable, but I’m not optimistic about his chances against a good Jacksonville defense stinging from a loss against the Titans last week…Bernard Berrian and Sydney Rice (vs. IND) should probably be benched against a feisty Colts team that lost in Week 1. Adrian Peterson figures to have the most success against Indy.

DTBWW

Looking for a good defense to plug into your lineup this week? Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW). Here are my picks for this week. (All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.)

ARI (vs. MIA), KC (vs. OAK), HOU (vs. BAL) and OAK (@ KC)