Lakers only offering Odom a three-year deal?

Reports persist that Odom has been offered deals spanning three and four seasons in length from the Lakers, but that differs sharply from every bankable indication we’ve received.

The Lakers’ best offer to Odom, so far, tops out at $27 million over three seasons. The expectation among rival teams remains that the sides will eventually come to terms.

This makes more sense. I don’t know why Odom would turn down a four-year deal from the Lakers worth $36 million to consider a five-year deal worth $34 million from the Heat. If the Lakers are only offering three years, then the total value of the contract is about $24 million after state taxes, so Odom could elect to go with the security of the extra $10 million in the Miami deal.

This, coupled with the Lakers’ decision to pull their offer from the table, might convince Odom to head to Miami and play for the mid-level. Pat Riley also indicated that the Heat are trying to work out a sign-and-trade for Odom, though it’s not clear what players would have to be involved to get the Lakers to agree to take on the extra salary. Udonis Haslem? Michael Beasley?

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Wondering why David Lee is still on the restricted free agent market? It might be because his asking price is a whopping $12 million per season.

The Knicks have not made a formal offer but are hoping to keep Lee for about $7 million to $8 million per season.

It could take much longer to determine the fates of Lee and Robinson. They are restricted free agents, making them a gamble for rival teams. Lee’s asking price may also be a big obstacle. His agent, Mark Bartelstein, is seeking $12 million per season, according to an executive whose team is pursuing Lee.

But Bartelstein made a strong argument that Lee is a unique and valuable player. He led the league in double-doubles last season, his fourth in the N.B.A., averaging 16 points and 11.7 rebounds, and shot 54.9 percent from the field. He is just 26 and still improving as a shooter and passer.

But at 6 feet 9 inches, Lee is also undersized for a power forward and center, and he does not block many shots or provide stiff interior defense. He scores in bunches, but he cannot create his own shot. Lee could make an All-Star team but he is not viewed as a franchise player, which is why the Knicks want to keep his salary in the single-digit millions.

Bartelstein sounded frustrated at the lack of a deal.

“It’s a shame David’s not done yet,” Bartelstein said. “The Knicks have the ability to get him signed. The other teams don’t, because they don’t know if the Knicks will match or not, or go through a sign-and-trade.”

Here’s what I wrote about Lee in our preview of this year’s crop of restricted free agents…

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Pistons, Blazers interested in Hedo Turkoglu.

The Oregonian reports Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard and assistant general manager Tom Penn called agent Lon Babby last night to begin the courtship of Hedo Turkoglu.

With Carlos Boozer out of the picture, an NBA source tells the Chicago Sun-Times that Turkoglu is now the Pistons’ first choice in free agency.

While the Blazers’ interest has long been rumored, Detroit’s interest is a little surprising. They already have a very good small forward on the roster in Tayshaun Prince, so unless they’re planning to play Turkoglu at the four, someone is going to lose some minutes. Of the two teams, the Pistons have more cap space, so if they want him, they can get him. (And what about Ben Gordon?)

Charlie V ahead of Turkoglu on the Pistons’ wishlist?

Chicago’s Ben Gordon remains the backcourt player deeply coveted by the Pistons, but the prospect of a Gordon-and-Villanueva combo likely would be slightly cheaper than trying to sign Gordon and Turkoglu with Detroit’s nearly $19 million in projected salary-cap space.

The Pistons may also be interested in Paul Millsap, but anytime a team signs a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that money is tied up for a week while his current team decides to match. That makes signing an RFA a dicey prospect.

I wonder if the Bucks are regretting letting Villanueva given the amount of interest he’s generating from their division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland).

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Yesterday, I ranked the top unrestricted free agents of 2009, but now it’s time to look at this summer’s crop of restricted free agents (RFA). Teams can sign an RFA to an offer sheet, then his team has seven days to match that offer to retain him. If the player doesn’t sign an offer sheet and can’t come to terms on a new contract with his current team, then he will play for a year for the qualifying offer and then become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

1. Paul Millsap, PF (24)
PER: 18.71
In his third year, this former second round pick had the best season of his career. He averaged 13.5 points and 8.6 rebounds, while shooting better than 53% from the field. While Carlos Boozer was out in December and January, the Jazz got a preview of what this kid can do when he gets starter’s minutes. He was a 17/11 guy during those two months, but the Jazz only went 11-13 in games in which Millsap played during that span. His camp expects a deal similar to the one David Lee is asking for, so something in the $10 million per season range. Is he worth it? Probably. And from the sound of it, the Jazz plan on offering him a deal that will keep him from testing the market. If he does explore his options, it may pay off as the Thunder and Pistons are rumored to have interest.
Value: $9.5 – $10.5 million per year

2. David Lee, PF (26)
PER: 19.07
GM Donnie Walsh said that the Knicks’ picking Jordan Hill in this year’s draft has nothing to do with Lee, but the two play the same position, so of course it’s going to have an effect on how the Knicks and Lee each view their relationship. The other issue is that two of the Knicks’ targets in 2010 are Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire might also play the same position as Lee, though Mike D’Antoni would likely play either at center, allowing Lee to play power forward. He gets most of his points off the glass, so he’d be a good fit with either of those guys. The Knicks are projected to have about $35 million in cap space heading into the summer of 2010 and whatever deal they sign Lee to will cut into that. If they want to keep Lee and sign two big-name free agents, then they’re going to have to rid themselves of either Jared Jeffries or Eddy Curry prior to 2010. I like Lee, but he’s not a guy that you can give the ball to on the block and expect him to score, and that limits his value somewhat as a big man. The Thunder, Kings, Grizzlies, Raptors and Pistons could all make a serious run at Lee, though anytime a team tries to poach a restricted free agent, it’s a delicate balance between offering him enough to convince the other team to let him go, while getting a reasonable deal at the same time.
Value: $9.0 – $10.0 million per year.

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One GM predicted that the summer of 2009 would be a “nuclear winter” of sorts for NBA free agents, and that players are going to have to dial down their expectations. Since virtually every team in the league is in cost-cutting mode, there will be bargains to be had.

- David Lee is a restricted free agent, which usually means he’d play at least another year with the Knicks, but given the current state of the NBA, there’s a good chance that the Knicks wouldn’t match a substantial offer. Sources of the NY Post say that GM Donnie Walsh would be reluctant to match an offer that averaged out to $10 million per season. At any other time, I’d say he’s worth that kind of money, but not right now.

- The NY Times says to expect that the Spurs will make a run at Rasheed Wallace, assuming he’s wiling to play for the mid-level exception. The News-Herald says that the Cavs are another possibility. He definitely makes sense for the Spurs, given his ability to space the court. San Antonio has been looking for a big man to play alongside Tim Duncan ever since David Robinson retired. Apparently, ‘Sheed asked for a buyout this season, but was denied.

- It was long thought that Tayshaun Prince was untouchable as Joe Dumars gives the Pistons roster a makeover, but not so says the Detroit News. If the right deal comes along and Prince has to go to make way for an impact forward, then so be it. Pro Basketball News says that the Hornets may try to take advantage of the Pistons’ housecleaning and target Prince and/or Rip Hamilton. I’d be very reluctant to part ways with Prince, who is a very good all around player and one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

- Former Sixers GM Billy King doesn’t know whether or not Allen Iverson has it in him to “fit in” instead of having to be “the Guy.” The consensus seems to be that Iverson is no longer good enough to be the #1 offensive option on a championship contender, so King says he has to ratchet down his shots and try to lead a team with his experience and grit.

During a chat yesterday, Chad Ford had this to say about David Lee:

Donnie Walsh is trying to find a home for Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries that frees up some cap space so that he can re-sign Lee. It sounds like that’s close to Mission Impossible, though I said the same thing about Zach Randolph this summer. If he can do that, I think Lee stays. If he can’t, he’d be smart to get something now instead of losing him in the summer. There is LOTS of interest in Lee both now and in the summer. He’s one of the few restricted free agents teams think they can steal away because of the Knicks cap situation.

Let’s be clear — the Knicks don’t have to trade anyone away to re-sign Lee. Ford is talking about clearing cap space so that the franchise doesn’t have to pay a luxury tax next season. They are currently on the hook for $69.3 million and that doesn’t count new contracts for Lee or Nate Robinson. With the the luxury tax threshold unlikely to change much from this season ($71 million), Walsh would need to move a contract or two to clear space for signing Lee and/or Robinson. Lee is the priority because he’s such a good fit in Mike D’Antoni’s up tempo attack. He is averaging 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, and is shooting almost 57% from the field.

Eddy Curry will make $21.7 million over the next two seasons but has only appeared in one game this season. The Knicks desperately need to get him some minutes if they hope to trade him before the Feb. 19 deadline. Jeffries is getting some minutes, but he has been horribly unproductive (PER: 7.39), though he was never much of a stat guy.

The bottom line is that if the Knicks want to re-sign Lee, they can. Their projected payroll goes down to $18.2 million for the 2010 season, so they would only take the luxury tax hit for one season if they chose to sign Lee to a multi-year deal (or matched another team’s offer this summer, when he becomes a restricted free agent).

What’s he worth? I’d say his play this season has put him into the range of $10-$11 million per season. I’d be careful not to pay too much more, because right now he’s putting up great numbers on a bad team that plays at a blistering pace.