According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, running back LaDainian Tomlinson is likely playing his last season for the Chargers.

LaDainian Tomlinson is still a player who can help the Chargers win, but it seems clear he can no longer win games for them and is likely closing out his final season in San Diego.

The Chargers are averaging 3.1 yards a carry, worst in the NFL. And unless they can start getting some leads and let Tomlinson and others pound the ball while the line gets in a rhythm, that doesn’t look to get much better.

Sunday was the fourth time this season the Chargers rushed 21 times or fewer. They are on pace to rush just 364 times, which would be their fewest since 2000 and third-lowest total ever.

Tomlinson is a player who has served the Chargers incredibly well over his career and it was good to see San Diego rework his contract in the offseason. But it’s been apparent the past two seasons that he’s running on empty and as the article suggests, it looks like his time in San Diego is coming to an end.

That said, in LT’s defense the offensive line hasn’t been good either. The holes just aren’t there like they have been in years past and LT isn’t the only one suffering from it: Darren Sproles is only averaging 3.5 YPC, which is only a mild improvement over Tomlinson’s 3.2 YPC. I still don’t see the same explosion and decision-making out of LT as I did in previous years, but the O-line has played a part in Tomlinson’s decline.

If the Chargers do decide to part ways with LT, they need to find a back that can run between the tackles in the offseason because they could pair him with Sproles to form a nice 1-2 combo. They need a back that can wear opponents down throughout the course of games, because they don’t have that now and their offense remains unbalanced.

Looking back at things, it probably would have been wise to hang onto Michael Turner and part ways with LT, but how would the Chargers know that Tomlinson would break down the past two years? They probably had an idea that his time as a primary back was winding down, but they weren’t going to cut him before last season and pay Turner at the same time. It was unfortunate timing that Turner became a free agent when he did.

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]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/11/will-this-be-tomlinson%e2%80%99s-final-year-in-san-diego/feed/ 0 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/20/six-pack-of-observations-broncos-34-chargers-23/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/20/six-pack-of-observations-broncos-34-chargers-23/#comments Tue, 20 Oct 2009 05:19:07 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=27108

1. Royal is making his presence felt in other facets of the game
After hauling in 91 receptions for 980 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie last year, Eddie Royal has largely been a bust in his second year. But he proved Monday night that he could contribute in other areas, especially on special teams. He returned a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the first quarter and a 71-yard punt return in the second quarter. As Denver’s offense sputtered in the first half, Royal provided a major spark.

2. The Broncos’ offensive line has been fantastic
Kyle Orton has turned out to be a great fit for Josh McDaniels’ offense, but he owes a lot of his success to his O-line. They’ve protected him like Fort Knox all season and did so again Monday night. Orton had all day to throw and was accurate when his receivers broke free from defenders. The Broncos’ front five continues to be one of the better units in the league.

3. The Chargers’ defense is a mess
One would have thought Ron Rivera would have fixed some of San Diego’s defensive issues during the team’s bye week. But the same problems that the Bolts had heading into the bye were evident again tonight: They couldn’t generate any pressure, they didn’t tackle well and they couldn’t come up with the big stop when they needed it. The Broncos did whatever they wanted offensively in the second half.

4. Turner needs to get Sproles a more active role in the offense
A player as explosive as Darren Sproles should never touch the ball less than 15-20 times a game. Yet tonight, Sproles had one carry for zero yards and one reception for four yards. That’s absolutely unacceptable and while Sproles can make his presence felt on special teams (which he did on a 77 yard punt return for a touchdown right before half time), Norv Turner needs to figure out ways to get him more involved. The Chargers have enough weapons to score 30-plus points a game. But if Turner isn’t going to use all of them, then San Diego’s offense will never reach its full potential.

5. Dumervil is a beast
Elvis Dumervil has emerged as one of the better young defenders in the game. He was almost a one-man wrecking crew in the second half tonight and finished with five tackles, two sacks, a forced fumbles and one tackle for loss. He’s already compiled eight sacks on the season.

6. Scheffler abused San Diego’s safeties
The Chargers’ safeties had no answer for Denver tight end Tony Scheffler tonight. He made an incredible touchdown catch over Eric Weddle in the second half and also had a 52-yard catch and run to set up a Brandon Stokley score in the fourth quarter. He could continue to see more opportunities in the Broncos’ offense as teams concentrate on doubling Brandon Marshall on the outside.

Remember this offseason when Ray Lewis put up a small stink about being disrespected as he attempted to coax a long-term deal out the Ravens? Due to his age (34), Lewis was criticized for demanding too much money and not settling for his market value.

When the dust settled, Lewis agreed to a three-year, $22 million contract that was incentive laden. He then reportedly lost 15 pounds from his last season’s playing weight and looked leaner and quicker in preseason.

In the Ravens’ 31-26 win over the Chargers in San Diego on Sunday, Lewis once again proved that he could still play at an elite level in the NFL. He racked up 12 tackles (10 solo), one QB hit and three tackles for loss. He also saved his best play for his last.

With the Ravens nursing a 31-26 lead with 37 seconds remaining, the Chargers faced a 4th and 2 from Baltimore’s 15-yard line. If they picked up the first down, they would have four cracks at the end zone and have the opportunity to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat.

With a hand injury limiting Philip Rivers’ passing ability, San Diego decided to pull its guards and run to the right side with Darren Sproles in efforts to pick up the first down. But Lewis blitzed on the play, slid past the Chargers’ guards and dropped Sproles for a five-yard loss. The San Diego offensive linemen must have figured that Lewis would be chasing Sproles on the play as they moved past him. But he damn near took the handoff for Sproles in the backfield as he read the play perfectly from the start.

This isn’t the same Baltimore defense without Rex Ryan and Bart Scott. But you’d be insane to think that Lewis will allow his team to take a step back now that Ryan is in New York.

Running back LaDainian Tomlinson rolled his ankle in the first quarter of the Chargers’ 24-20 win over the Raiders on Monday night. He returned to the sidelines, but watched as teammate Darren Sproles scored the eventual game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds remaining.

Many thought before the year started that LT would be a candidate to rebound this season, although “rebound” is a relative word seeing as how he still rushed for 1,110 yards and 11 touchdowns in ‘08.

But regardless of his ankle injury, it now it appears that he and Sproles are going to get equal amount of time in the offense. It’s apparent that age has caught up with LT and that Sproles is more of a weapon in the passing game. I assume that San Diego will still split the amount of touches that both backs receive, which means that LT’s 300-carry seasons are over.

As for the game, the Raiders played inspired football and actually looked better than the Bolts for much of the contest. If Richard Seymour is upset about being traded to Oakland, he didn’t show it last night because he lived in San Diego’s backfield.

JaMarcus Russell still has major issues with his accuracy. It’s not that he’s susceptible to throwing a ton of interceptions (although he did throw two last night), it’s just that he misfires badly and usually winds up throwing passes 10 feet over his receivers’ heads. Still, he showed flashes of promise and should have had two touchdown passes to his credit last night instead of just one, but receiver Louis Murphy dropped a pass in the end zone towards halftime. (Although it wasn’t a clean drop; officials called it a touchdown and then overturned the ruling when they saw Murphy didn’t hang onto the ball all the way down to the ground.)

I’m going to channel my inner Peter King and dole out a crap load of quick-hit thoughts on last weekend’s NFL draft, which by the way, was one of the more unpredictable drafts I have ever witnessed.

Below are 65 observations from the 2009 NFL Draft. Why 65? I don’t know – don’t worry about it. Originally I came up with 62, but I know that some people freak out when things aren’t in round numbers, so I added three more. But the number 65 means nothing, so don’t waste time searching for its meaning.

Obviously these are all my opinions and feel free to debate them. But before you do, I already know that it supposedly takes three seasons to fully grade a draft and that no prospect is a sure thing. Again, I’m projecting here – so lighten up and let’s strike up some good debates.

1. Outside of the fact that he’s now a millionaire and could buy a small country, I kind of feel bad for Matthew Stafford. You know some halfwit fan or media member can’t wait to utter the comment, “For $72 million, he should have made that pass.” I hate the fact that money plays such a huge role in sports because when you get down to it, completing a pass, making a catch or kicking a field goal has nothing to do with how many zeros are on your paycheck.

2. I know I’m not saying anything new here, but the rookie salary structure is a joke. When teams don’t even want a top 5 pick anymore because of the financial burden that comes with it, there’s a huge problem.

3. The kid could turn out to be the next Ryan Leaf on the field, but Lion fans have to at least take comfort in the fact that Matthew Stafford is saying all the right things at this point. He did an interview with the NFL Network on Sunday and he talked about how he wants to be a starter right away, but also wants to learn and be patient in his development. From all accounts, he looks like he has a great head on his shoulders.

4. If Tyson Jackson turns out to be the next Richard Seymour like Chiefs’ GM Scott Pioli believes, then nobody is going to remember (or care) that he was taken with the third overall pick in a weak draft class.

5. Out of all the prospects to come out of this draft class, I’m going to find myself rooting the hardest for Aaron Curry. It was incredibly heartwarming to see him bring a 12-year old leukemia survivor to the draft and it was touching to see how emotionally happy he was on the stage after his name was announced. You can tell that the young man takes nothing for granted in life.

6. Jet fans are excited that they have a quarterback for the future, as well they should be. But I can’t help but think about how if Mark Sanchez had waited to come out next year, there’s a good chance he would be the third quarterback taken behind Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. Yet he was a top 5 pick in this year’s draft and the Jets had to trade two high picks and three players in order to select him. Yikes.

7. I absolutely loved what Cleveland did in the first round. They not only saved a truck load of money by trading out of the top 5, but they also didn’t reach for a prospect just to fill a need and acquired a ton of picks by continuously trading down.

8. I loved all of Cleveland’s wheeling and dealing in the first round, but not as much as I loved the acquisition of safety Abram Elam as part of the deal for the No. 5 pick. He is one of the most underrated players in the league and he obviously is a fit for Eric Mangini’s defensive scheme. Besides having the desire to get out of the top 5, Elam was the key component to that entire trade for the Browns.

9. Some may hammer the Browns for taking a center in the first round, but many considered Alex Mack the type of prospect that could change the way teams draft the position in the future. Plus, you have to love how Cleveland continues to upgrade the most important unit on the football field: the offensive line.

10. The Bengals never learn do they? Andre Smith is incredibly talented but he carries more baggage with him than a 787.

11. Darrius Heyward-Bey could turn out to be a solid deep threat in the NFL, but Michael Crabtree has the potential to be one of the best receivers in the game for a very long time. Not that he cares, but Al Davis is nuts for passing on the talented Texas Tech product.

12. Speaking of Crabtree, one of the potential reasons of why he fell as far as he did could be because of his attitude. Cleveland was apparently turned off by his “diva” persona during a pre-draft visit, but if there is any person that can humble the young man, it’s 49ers’ head coach Mike Singletary.

13. The Jaguars did incredibly well in the first two rounds. It wasn’t a flashy draft, but how often does a team land two starting-caliber offensive tackles in their first two picks? This was a team crippled by injuries along the O-line last season, so adding Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton was fantastic. (Somewhere, Maurice Jones-Drew is smiling.)

14. I’ve hammered the Packers for much of the offseason because of the lack of attention paid to filling needs in their new 3-4 defense. But GM Ted Thompson came through at No. 9 with the selection of B.J. Raji, who could play end this year and then nose next year if the team decides not to bring back Ryan Pickett, who becomes a free agent after this season.

15. I was surprised the Bills passed on offensive tackle Michael Oher at No. 11, but teams were worried about his ability to grasp an offense at the next level so at least Buffalo addressed its need for a pass rusher in Penn State defensive end Aaron Maybin.

16. Should anyone really be surprised that new Broncos’ head coach Josh McDaniels went offense at No. 12?

17. Speaking of that pick, Knowshon Moreno has the best vision of any running back taken in this draft. He’s a stud and should do well in Denver.

18. Washington got one of the steals of the first round when Texas defensive end Brian Orakpo fell to them at No. 13. He was an absolute force against Oklahoma and Texas Tech last year and should be motivated after falling out of the top 10.

19. I know he had a brutal showing at the NFL scouting combine, but trust me – Malcolm Jenkins can play. He was highly productive at Ohio State and was less of a risk than fellow cornerback prospect Vontae Davis, even though Davis has the superior athletic skills. (More on Davis later.)

20. You have to hand it to the Texans. This was the second year in a row that some believed Houston would address the running back position in the first round, but they continued to build their defense with the selection of linebacker Brian Cushing. Maybe 2009 will finally be the year this team makes a playoff run.

21. Larry English might not be an every down player at the next level, but what a pick by the Chargers. They really didn’t have a ton of needs to address and English was a monster in the MAC last year. The Bolts will find ways to get him on the field and don’t be surprised if he piles up 7-10 sacks next year.

22. I have several issues with the Bucs’ decision to draft Josh Freeman in the first round. First and foremost, in a better quarterback class, he might be a second or even third rounder given how raw he is as a prospect. Secondly, why the hell did Tampa trade up to get him? Did they really think Denver was going to take him at No. 18 with so many holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball?

23. Weren’t Jon Gruden and GM Bruce Allen ridiculed and essentially (in part) ushered out of Tampa for concentrating too much on the quarterback position? Yet, the new regime of Raheem Morris and Mark Dominik have already re-signed Luke McCown, signed free agent Byron Leftwich and drafted Josh Freeman. And oh-by-the-way, they still have Brian Griese and Josh Johnson on the roster. I have no idea what Morris and Dominik are doing in terms of a game plan to rebuild the Bucs.

24. Isn’t Jeremy Maclin essentially the same receiver as DeSean Jackson? I’m surprised the Eagles didn’t add a bigger complement to Jackson if they were focused on drafting a receiver in the early rounds.

25. It’s easy to slam Detroit’s selection of Brandon Pettigrew at No. 20, but what is always considered a young quarterback’s best friend? A tight end – and Pettigrew is one of the better tight end prospects to come out in some time.

26. That said, how did the Lions not address their middle linebacker need with the No. 20 pick? Rey Maualuga was there for the taking and he would have filled a bigger need than Pettigrew. Jordon Dizon is your middle linebacker, Lions? Seriously?

27. One more note on the Lions drafting Pettigrew; tight end is also viewed as an extension of the O-line, which was a major need for Detroit coming into the draft. For better or worse, Pettigrew was essentially Martin Mayhew’s answer in addressing that need.

28. I was shocked that the Vikings selected Percy Harvin at No. 22 – not because they didn’t need a receiver, but because it was reported that Brad Childress had removed all prospects with poor character from his draft board. This was just another example of how you can’t believe everything reported before the draft.

29. Baltimore got a first round steal in offensive tackle Michael Oher. As previously noted, some teams were worried about whether or not Oher could grasp a pro offense, but at No. 23, he was worth the risk.

30. Peria Jerry fits a major need for the Falcons – or does he? Scouts believe he’s an under tackle at the next level and Atlanta already has a productive player at that position in Jonathan Babineaux. Obviously Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith feel as though Jerry can play the nose and after the draft those two compiled last year, I trust their judgment.

31. Vontae Davis doesn’t really seem like a Bill Parcells-type does he? Regardless, he’s loaded with talent and if he can keep his emotions and attitude in check, he could turn out be a solid corner.

32. My coworker John Paulsen and I are going to do more on this topic soon (so check back), but I thought the Packers’ deal with the Patriots at No. 26 was the worst trade of the first round. Green Bay filled a huge need with the selection of outside linebacker Clay Matthews, but they gave up a second round pick and two third rounders in doing so. Considering Matthews might be one of the more overrated prospects in the draft, I was shocked that GM Ted Thompson would give up so much for that pick.

33. It’ll be interesting to see which receiver taken in the bottom of the first round (Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt) goes on to have the more productive career. They both have great hands, above-average speed and will play for decent offenses in New York (Giants) and Tennessee, respectively.

34. How did Chris “Beanie” Wells fall all the way to No. 31? I know there are injury concerns, but he had the best blend of size, speed and strength of any running back prospect in the draft and Arizona might have gotten a steal.

35. Some have compared Western Michigan safety Louis Delmas to Bob Sanders. Too bad Delmas might rot in Detroit.

36. Far be it for me to question Bill Belichick on draft day, but Patrick Chung at No. 34 in the second round? That’s freaking high.

37. Ohio State prospect prediction #1: Linebacker James Laurinaitis will struggle finding a position in the pros.

38. Ohio State prospect prediction #2: Brian Robiskie is going to flourish as a quality possession receiver in the NFL.

39. I love Alphonso Smith and think he could turn out to be a solid corner, but why would the Broncos give up a first round pick in 2010 to trade up in the second round of a weak draft?

40. As long as I’m crapping on the Broncos, did anyone tell Josh McDaniels and Brian Xanders that teams are usually more successful when they trade down, not up? Every time they announced a trade, it was usually Denver moving up. I don’t necessarily dislike the prospects they wound up with, but their approach in this draft was bizarre.

41. Whose mother did Rey Maualuga punch for him to fall all the way to No. 38? Nice pick, Bengals.

42. Whose baby did Duke Robinson punch for him to slip all the way into the fifth round? How the hell does a first-round talent drop to the No. 163 overall pick? Nice value, Carolina.

43. Before the draft, word was that the Patriots were absolutely in love with Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler at No. 23. After completely trading out of the first round, New England snagged Butler with the No. 41 overall pick in the second round. That’s the genius of Bill Belichick on draft day.

44. See No. 38, but replace the name Alphonso Smith with Everrette Brown, and the word Broncos with Panthers.

45. What better team for Pat White to go to than the one that founded the “Wildcat” formation last season?

46. I have no idea how he fits into an already stacked Giants’ linebacker corps, but I love their pick of Virginia’s Clint Sintim at No. 45. The guy was a monster in college.

47. I think it was hilarious that Mel Kiper and Todd McShay bashed the Raiders’ selection of Michael Mitchell with the No. 47 pick in the second round (they said they could have gotten him much later), yet the Bears were reportedly ready to take him at No. 49. If Mitchell was good enough for Jerry Angelo in the second round (I said second, not first – Lord knows Angelo can’t judge talent in the first), then chances are he’s a better prospect than Kiper and McShay thought he was.

48. The Eagles took two boom or bust picks in Jeremy Maclin and “Shaddy” McCoy in the first two rounds, but there’s no question they added some athletic talent with each of the selections.

49. I don’t care what anyone says – William Moore (Falcons) was the steal of the second round. I know he had a bad senior year, but he was nicked up and had he come out after his junior season, he would have been a top 15 pick.

50. I still prefer NFL Network’s coverage to ESPN’s, but Marshall Faulk and Jamie Dukes continue to bring nothing to the table. And what was with the on-going camera trick where they kept making everyone’s heads look bigger? It was funny once, but by the fourth time enough was enough.

51. Penn State wideout Derrick Williams (Lions’ third round pick) could turn out to be the next great kick returner in the NFL.

52. Arizona might have found a gem in the third round in Alabama safety Rashad Johnson. He’s not a thumper, but some have compared him to a poor man’s Ed Reed.

53. If Wisconsin’s Travis Beckum (Giants’ third round pick) could ever stay healthy, he could have a nice career as a pass-catching tight end.

54. The Bears got the steal of the fourth round in Vandy cornerback D.J. Moore. The only reason why he dropped so far was because of his lack of size (he’s only 5’8”). If he were two inches taller, he would have probably been a second rounder. Yet another mid-round gem by GM Jerry Angelo.

55. Speaking of mid-round Jerry Angelo gems, throw Ohio State outside linebacker Marcus Freeman and Abilene Christian wideout Johnny Knox into that group, too.

56. Atlanta had a really solid second day. Quarterbacks mostly stayed away of cornerback Chris Owens (third round) at San Jose State last year and Lawrence Sidbury (forth round) of Richmond could turn out to be a solid pass rusher. All in all, the Falcons filled needs and got a ton of defensive help throughout the draft.

57. I hate to crap on any prospect, because clearly they have more talent than I do, but I think Seattle wasted their sixth round pick on Rutgers’ quarterback Mike Teel. He has good arm strength, but he really struggles in his decision making I doubt he’s long for the NFL. But still – good luck, Mike!

58. I know I hammered Packers’ GM Ted Thompson for his first round trade at No. 31 on this list, but he really did put together a solid draft. Georgia defensive end Jarius Wynn was a nice find in the sixth round.

59. Someone explain to me how Fresno State tight end Bear Pascoe is not on his way to Chicago right now.

60. Your 2009 Marques Colston Seventh Round Sleeper Award goes to: Rutgers’ wide receiver Tiguan Underwood (Jaguars).

61. I know teams are always enamored with size and arm strength when it comes to drafting quarterbacks, but how do guys like Mike Teel and Tom Brandstater get selected before Graham Harrell? I know Harrell had grossly inflated numbers because he played in Texas Tech’s offensive system, but I still can’t believe that no team took a flier on him in the seventh round, yet Bradstater and Teel go in the sixth.

62. After not selecting a running back the entire draft, keep an eye on the Texans’ interest in Edgerrin James if/when he is released by the Cardinals.

63. After not selecting a pass-rusher in the entire draft, keep an eye on the Patriots’ interest in free agent defensive end Jason Taylor.

64. One has to wonder what Anquan Boldin’s fate is after the Giants and Titans each drafted first round receivers. Are the Ravens still a possibility? And would Arizona be willing to scale back their trade demands?

65. Quote of the NFL draft weekend: “How fitting is it that this year’s Mr. Irreverent is a kicker!” – Rich Eisen, NFL Network.

Other 2009 NFL Draft Coverage:

NFL Draft: 5 Second Day Steals
NFL Draft: 5 First Round Values
NFL Draft: 5 Questionable Day 1 Decisions
NFL Draft: 5 Day 1 Winners
Official 2009 NFL Draft Post & Rumor Mill

As the NFL draft rolls on over the next two days, I’ll post picks, thoughts and stay on top of any rumors that I hear and post them here. Enjoy.

2:55PM ET: Mike Mayock of the NFL Network claims that his “cell phone is blowing up” with reports that the Jets are trying to trade up to No. 2 for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez.

3:19PM ET: According to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Dolphins will select Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler at No. 25.

3:22PM ET: The Rams could trade back into the first round for middle linebacker Rey Maualuga according to NFL Network’s Steve Wyche.

3:38PM ET: I’m shocked the Chiefs passed on Aaron Curry, but all the pre-draft rumors that said Tyson Jackson would be their pick were obviously dead on. Jackson is the best 3-4 end in the draft and obvious was a commodity.

3:40PM ET: The Browns got exactly what they wanted with this trade. They weren’t in love with anyone at No.5 and managed to trade out. Great move – I wonder what kind of ransom the Browns got.

3:42PM ET: Mike Mayock just made a great point about the Jets trading up to No. 5. What team did they want to get ahead of to go all the way up to No. 5?

3:45PM ET: DE Kenyon Coleman, QB Brett Ratliff, S Abram Elam No. 17 and No. 57. A sleeper in this deal is Elam, who is one of the more promising safeties in the draft.

3:52PM ET: The Bengals select OT Andre Smith – another low character guy for their low-character roster. He is a tremendous talent, but he comes with a ton of baggage.

3:53PM ET: Mayock speculates that the Raiders will take a receiver, but not Michael Crabtree. In his last mock, he had them taking Darrius Heyward-Bey out of Maryland, which would be quite a shock. I can’t see Oakland passing on Crabtree at No. 7, but a sleeper could be OT Eugene Monroe.

4:21PM ET: Crabtree goes to the 49ers. Although word is that he turned teams off with his “diva” attitude, it’s amazing that this kid fell so far. He’s one of the best prospects in this draft and the Niners got a steal. He fits a need and he was the best player left on the board – great pick.

4:28PM ET: Bills select Aaron Maybin. This was a bit of a surprise considering the Bills’ need for an offensive tackle and Michael Oher is still on the board. But before they traded Jason Peters to the Eagles, pass rush was a major need and Maybin feels that need. He was one of the best pass-rushers in college football last year and while he could stand to add a little bulk to his frame, he could turn out to be terrific off the edge.

4:32PM ET: Broncos select Knowshon Moreno. This is a bit of a surprise considering Denver is switching to a 3-4 defense and they have needs to fill in the front seven. But Josh McDaniels is an offensive guy first and foremost, and Moreno is a stud. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he arguably has the best vision of any back in the draft and should do well in Denver.

4:39PM ET: Redskins select Brian Orakpo. This is another guy that fell. Orakpo was once considering a top 5 pick and he slid all the way to Washington at No. 13, who had a major need at defensive end after releasing Jason Taylor. Some say Orakpo played down to his competition at times, but anyone that saw his effort against Oklahoma and Texas Tech came away impressed.

4:47PM ET: Saints select Malcolm Jenkins. Jenkins had a brutal showing at the scouting combine, but his body of work at Ohio State was impressive. I’m a little surprised that the Saints didn’t address their linebacker position here, but after cutting Mike McKenzie, they had an obvious need at cornerback and Jenkins is less of a risk than Vontae Davis, who some believe is a risk given his attitude.

4:50PM ET: Texans select Brian Cushing. The Texans continue to upgrade their defense with the selection of Cushing, who was the best outside linebacker prospect in the draft after Aaron Curry. The knock on Cushing is that he might be more of a bodybuilder than a football player, but I’d say that more fits his former USC teammate Clay Matthews.

4:55PM ET: Chargers select Larry English. This is a bit of a surprise and it’s no knock on English. With Rey Maualuga on the board, I’m surprised they went English, but at least he’s a fit for the 3-4. English was one of the best players in the MAC and he was a force as a pass-rusher. The Bolts didn’t have a ton of holes to fill, so maybe English was the top player left on their board and they took him.

4:59PM ET: Browns trade the 17th pick to the Bucs for the 19th and the 191st. What a great day for the Browns in terms of value. They’re probably still going to address a need and they keep acquiring more picks.

5:01PM ET: Bucs select Josh Freeman. I could look like an absolute idiot (nothing new) in a few years, but I think this is an awful pick. If this weren’t a weak QB class, there’s no way Freeman would have been taken in the first round. He has a ton of talent and he’s a good kid, but he’s incredibly raw and I think he’s going to have time reading NFL defenses. Again, hammer me if you think I’m wrong. But the Bucs are jam packed at quarterback and one could argue they don’t have a quality starter among them.

5:11PM ET: Eagles select Jeremy Maclin. The Browns once again traded back, this time with the Eagles, who added a dynamic playmaker in Maclin. I’m a bit surprised that they would trade up. Who were they worried about getting ahead of? The Lions? Doesn’t make much sense.

5:26PM ET: Lions select Brandon Pettigrew. I don’t get it – I really don’t. The Lions have needs at offensive tackle and middle linebacker, both Michael Oher and Rey Maulauga are on the board, and they take a tight end. The only way I can spin this pick is that dome teams tend to struggle defensively (they rarely rank in the top 10 defensively at years end). So Martin Mayhew addresses the offense first and foremost and gives Stafford a nice target in the passing game to go along with Calvin Johnson.

5:41PM ET: Browns select Alex Mack. This was a bit of a surprise because of what the Browns need, but Mack is a great prospect. He’s the best center in the draft and obviously Cleveland felt that they could nab one of the best players available at No. 21 and fill their linebacker need later with one of their many second round picks. This was a surprise (and maybe a reach?) with Everrette Brown still on the board, but the Browns still got a quality prospect.

5:50PM ET: Vikings select Percy Harvin. Speculation had it that the Vikings would take a receiver at this spot, although I’m a little surprised that they took Harvin despite rumors that said they had removed all prospects who had poor character. Regardless, Harvin has loads of potential and could be explosive opposite Bernard Berrian in the Vikings’ offense.

6:06PM ET: Ravens select Michael Oher. No surprise – the Patriots traded down in a draft. Oher is a fantastic value at this spot and fills a need for the Ravens. I’m shocked he lasted this long and I think Baltimore got a steal.

6:10PM ET: Falcons select Peria Jerry. The Falcons definitely addressed a need and Jerry is a tremendous value at this pick, but he’s projected as an under tackle and Atlanta desperately needs a nose. Jerry is essentially the same player as Jonathan Babineaux, who just received a new contract extension for his productive play. Still, maybe Mike Smith wants to use a smaller defensive line and go with more stunts next year. If Trey Lewis returns to full health next season, then Jerry fits in well and could give the Falcons another pass rusher along with John Abraham.

6:27PM ET: Dolphins select Vontae Davis. I love it. Davis’s attitude has been questioned in the past, but obviously Bill Parcells isn’t concerned is too upset about it. Davis has tremendous athleticism and could turn out to be a steal this late in the draft. Then again, he could be nothing more than an athletic marvel that gets abused by NFL receivers because he’s too aggressive. I trust Parcells’ judgment.

6:37PM ET: Packers trade their 2nd round pick and two 3rd rounders to New England in order to select Clay Matthews. This was, bar none, the worst trade of the day so far. The Packers did fill a need at outside linebacker, but the Patriots fleeced them for what could turn out to be a very overrated prospect in Matthews. This trade was mind-boggling and Ted Thompson should feel abused.

6:41PM ET: Quick question – did teams forget that USC linebacker Rey Maualuga is still on the board?

6:42PM ET: Colts select Donald Brown. Sucka what? This pick makes no sense. With Evander Hood and Ron Brace still on the board, I’m shocked the Colts went offense – more specifically, a running back. They have Joseph Addai and also took Michael Hart in the sixth round a year ago. Brown is a solid prospect, but I’m shocked the Colts went running back with their first pick with needs on defense.

6:49PM ET: Bills select Eric Wood. I’m a little surprised that with a need for offensive tackle, the Bills didn’t go with Eben Britton. But some felt as though Wood would get selected ahead of Alex Mack, so obviously the kid has a ton of talent. I’ll be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t take an OT in the second round.

7:06PM ET: Giants select Hakeem Nicks. No real surprise here. Since the G-Men couldn’t acquire Braylon Edwards from the Browns, they had an obvious need for a receiver and Nicks is one of the better route runners in the draft.

7:09PM ET: Titans select Kenny Britt. Just as I wrote for the Giants – no real surprise here. Tennessee was rumored to be interested in trading for Anquan Boldin, so obviously they wanted to address the wideout position, even though they signed Nate Washington this offseason. Britt is a nice big target and although he doesn’t have a ton of speed, he’s a great blocker and isn’t afraid to go over the middle.

7:23PM ET: Cardinals select Chris “Beanie” Wells. It’s surprising that a talented back like this fell this far, but the Cardinals got a steal. He’s similar to Tim Hightower in that he’s a bigger back, but Wells has more speed and Arizona now has a replacement for Edgerrin James, who will get his wish and be released soon.

7:26PM ET: Steelers select Evander Hood. If Hood can be a 3-4 nose, then this was a solid pick. The Steelers didn’t have a ton of needs obviously, so they take one of the best players on the board and add to their already stout defense.

This is it – the week NFL draft nuts have been waiting for. Soon enough, prospects will know what cities they’re headed to and draft mock experts everywhere will look like idiots when less than half of their predictions are correct despite spending hours of time researching the picks.

I say it every year – the NFL draft is a crapshoot in terms of trying to make predictions. Nobody knows how high prospects are rated on draft boards around the league except the teams themselves. So while it’s fun to project who will go where, nobody has a clue – not Mike Mayock, not Mel Kiper and certainly not Anthony Stalter. (Did I just refer to myself in the third person? What a joke.)

The following is my third and final mock of the first round. In my previous two mocks, I had some fun by predicting potential trades that could play out, but I won’t do it here. I’m playing this mock “straight up” because predicting trades in the first round is harder to do than predicting what kind of mood Billy Bob Thornton will be in when he sits down to give an interview. Zing!

Some of you will inevitably feel as though that I have teams reaching with their picks. That’s fine, but realize that reaches are going to happen come Saturday because they’re just a part of the draft. If you disagree with any of my picks, go ahead and let me hear about it in the comments section. After all, the NFL draft is a spectacle and it’s supposed to be fun for fans. Enjoy all the action on Saturday and good luck to your favorite team on draft weekend.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0 and Mock Draft Version 2.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Word is that the Lions aren’t completely sold on Stafford, which is why they have started contract negotiations with not only his agent, but also the representatives of Jason Smith and Aaron Curry. Considering how many holes the Lions have, it’s ludicrous for them to take a QB that they’re not 100% convinced can be their leader under center for years to come. But when has Detroit ever done anything that made sense? Matt Millen is nowhere near Allen Park these days, yet the general feeling is that the Lions are still going to screw up this pick. For the record, I think Curry should be their pick. He’s the best player in the draft, he fills a major need, would be cheaper to sign than either Stafford or Smith and linebacker is usually a safer pick in the first round. But what I think Detroit should do, and what I think they will do are two different things, which is why Stafford’s name is penciled in above.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If the Lions select Smith at No. 1, then the Rams could go one of four ways. They could take the next best offensive tackle in Eugene Monroe, they could get their quarterback of the future in Matthew Stafford, they could fill their need for a No. 1 receiver and take Michael Crabtree, or they could go with the best defensive player in the draft and select Aaron Curry. Curry seems like the most likely choice, but again, any one of the prospects mentioned are viable options. If the Lions do pass on Smith, then he seems like a slam-dunk for the Rams, who are rumored to prefer him to Monroe. With Orlando Pace now in Chicago, St. Louis needs to address the gaping hole at left tackle and the athletic Smith would seemingly be a great fit.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
There’s a chance Curry might not fall to this spot and there’s an even bigger chance that the Chiefs will go with an offensive tackle to help protect new quarterback Matt Cassel. But chances are Curry will be available here and considering KC is making a switch to a new 3-4 defensive alignment, he would be a great fit. New GM Scott Pioli traded for Mike Vrabel and signed veteran free agent Zach Thomas this offseason, so obviously he’s making the linebacker position a priority. Pair Curry opposite Derrick Johnson and the Chiefs will have a nice set of young, athletic linebackers.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
There is a ton of speculation that the Seahawks will select USC quarterback Mark Sanchez here, which certainly would make sense. Matt Hasselbeck is 33 years old, is coming off an injury-plagued season and Seattle isn’t currently developing a young backup behind him (which is where Sanchez would come in). But with general manager Tim Ruskell recently saying that Hasselbeck is “as good as ever,” it’s hard to believe that Sanchez would be their pick here. Granted, Sanchez could still be viewed as a potential successor even if Hasselbeck is “as good as ever,” but it still seems far-fetched for Seattle to go that route with this pick. The bottom line is that even though the Hawks are coming off a disastrous year, they can easily rebound in a weak NFC West and they seem to still be in “win now” mode. Seattle wants right tackle Sean Locklear to eventually be Walter Jones’ successor on the left side, so Monroe could play guard until one of the tackle spots open up.

5. Cleveland Browns: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Earlier this week I went into detail about why I believe Sanchez will be the Browns’ pick at No. 5, which you can read here. But the long and short of it is that I fully believe that Cleveland will trade either quarterback Brady Quinn or wide receiver Braylon Edwards by the end of draft weekend, and therefore decided between either Sanchez or wideout Michael Crabtree at No. 5. And actually, I think the Browns will trade both Quinn and Edwards by the end of draft weekend, select Sanchez at No. 5 and then fill their wide receiver need later in the draft. If I’m wrong about all of these trade scenarios, then top defenders Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo, B.J. Raji and Everrette Brown are all possibilities at this spot as well.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
The Bengals would love to replace former first round bust Levi Jones at left tackle, but what prospect will they go with? Some believe Oher would be a reach here and that Alabama’s Andre Smith would be a better fit for Cincy’s desire to fill its roster with questionable characters. But something tells me Mike Brown will go with the safer choice in Oher, whose draft stock has risen of late. He has great size, athleticism and comes with less baggage than Smith, who has tremendous talent, but has also had his weight, work ethic and motivation questioned in the past. Either way, unless they surprise and address another need such as running back, the Bengals will probably go with an offensive tackle at this spot.

7. Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Even though the Raiders have needs on the offensive and defensive lines, Crabtree might be too good to pass up here. There are concerns about his health after he had foot surgery following the college season, but there’s no doubt Crabtree is a gamer and he fills Oakland’s need to give quarterback JaMarcus Russell a true go-to receiver. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders select one of the top offensive tackles here or a defensive end like Brian Orakpo. But again if Crabtree falls, I highly doubt Al Davis will pass.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Considering Dennis Northcutt and Troy Williamson are the projected starters at receiver next season, there’s no doubt that the Jags need to address their gaping hole at wideout. But will it be with this pick? Maybe, especially if Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin are available, but don’t forget that head coach Jack Del Rio is a defensive-minded guy and that Jacksonville has always been known for its defense. The Jags traded Marcus Stroud to Buffalo last offseason because they felt Rob Meier could be as productive as a starter as he was in a three-man rotation in previous years. But he wasn’t, and Jacksonville’s defense struggled generating pressure from the interior. If Raji falls, he would be an excellent addition to the defensive line and he would surely benefit from playing alongside big John Henderson. Again, receiver is the top need for this team and nobody would be surprised if Jacksonville filled that hole with this pick. But Raji might be too good to pass up at this spot.

9. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The Packers have been quiet so far in free agency, which is surprising considering they’re switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme next year and don’t have 3-4 personnel currently on the roster. If B.J. Raji falls, I could definitely see Green Bay selecting him to use in a rotation at all three defensive line spots next season and eventually replacing Ryan Pickett (who is a free agent after the 2009 season) at nose tackle. But with the Jaguars stealing Raji a pick earlier, Jackson isn’t a bad fallback. Jackson isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he’s solid against the run and he’s big enough to play end in a 3-4, which is a major need for the Packers. Another option for GB here would be to go with either Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown and plug them into the outside linebacker position opposite Aaron Kampman. But the Pack are awfully thin along the defensive line and Jackson would be a solid, albeit unspectacular, addition.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
The 49ers have a nice group of young linebackers, which includes Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson. But the team is hurting for pass rushers and could use an outside linebacker that can provide a solid rush off the edge and get pressure on the quarterback. The knock on Orakpo is that he can play down to his competition, but there’s no doubt he wreaked havoc in the opponents’ backfields last season, most notably against Big 12 rivals Texas Tech and Oklahoma. He’s athletic enough to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 and under the guidance of Mike Singletary, he could turn out to be a productive player at the next level.

11. Buffalo Bills: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Bills need a pass rusher, which is why prospects like Everrette Brown and Aaron Maybin are major possibilities at this pick, but the Jason Peters trade changed everything. Now the top need is offensive tackle and although Smith comes with major baggage, there’s no denying that he has tremendous talent. The team took a chance by signing a dynamic personality in Terrell Owens this offseason, so they might be to a point now where talent supersedes all else. If Michael Oher falls, the Bills could look at him (regardless of whether or not Smith is still on the board) as well, but the overall feeling is that Buffalo will go with either an offensive tackle or a pass rusher at this spot.

12. Denver Broncos: Everrette Brown, OLB/DE, Florida State
Denver would love it if defensive tackle B.J. Raji fell to this spot so that they could plug him in at nose tackle in their new 3-4 defensive alignment, but it’s doubtful that he slips out of the top 10. The Broncos need a defender that can provide a decent rush off the edge and generate pressure on the quarterback. Brown was a force at Florida State and while there are some concerns about his lack of size, he should be able to transform into an outside linebacker in Denver’s 3-4 scheme, or play with his hand in the dirt as an end when the team goes with a 4-3 front. Brown’s stock has fallen has the draft nears, so the Broncos might look at Aaron Maybin from Penn State here, too.

13. Washington Redskins: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
If either Andre Smith or Michael Oher falls to this spot, I could see the Skins selecting one of them. But with both off the board in this mock, it’s hard to see them reaching for Eben Britton, who would be the next highest offensive tackle in this draft. This is one of the more difficult teams to figure out because if Daniel Snyder is in love with a prospect like Mark Sanchez or Aaron Curry, I could see him trading up. I could also see the Skins trading down and then selecting Britton or one of the top defensive ends later on. But if we’re playing this mock straight up, then I say Washington bypasses smaller defensive end prospects like Aaron Maybin and Larry English, and goes with the big-bodied Ayers, who has good size, is a reliable tackler and plays with a chip on his shoulder. The only thing is, he would be a reach here and if LSU’s Tyson Jackson falls, I could see the Skins preferring him to Ayers. Keep an eye on USC linebacker Rey Maualuga at this pick, too.

14. New Orleans Saints: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Some pundits think that the Saints will take a running back like Beanie Wells at this spot following the release of veteran Deuce McAllister this offseason. But with only one pick in the first three rounds, if the Saints stay here (as in, they don’t trade down in order to acquire more picks) then they’ll go defense. (Plus, they also have a highly productive Pierre Thomas waiting for a more extended role in the offense.) New Orleans’ most pressing defensive need is at outside linebacker, where Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle are quality starters, but neither of them makes a huge impact and both will turn 30 this year. Some feel as though Cushing is nothing more than a bodybuilder who posses as a football player, but that description better fits his former USC teammate Clay Matthews. Outside of having some durability concerns, Cushing is a solid tackler, flashes good athleticism and has decent range. He would be a solid pick for the Saints at this spot.

15. Houston Texans: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Houston has bigger needs than running back, most notably at cornerback, defensive tackle and outside linebacker. But Wells might be too good to pass up at this spot and pair with speed back Steve Slaton. Wells has the best combination of size and speed of any back in the draft and could be one of the better picks of this year’s draft. Of course, many pundits thought that the Texans would draft a running back last year and they traded down and took offensive tackle Duane Brown.

16. San Diego Chargers: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The Chargers are one of the toughest teams to predict in the first round. Their biggest needs are arguably at defensive end now that Igor Olshansky signed with Dallas, a right tackle to uproot Jeromey Clary, and a future running back to supplant LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. But if they’re taking the best player available at this spot, then it’s Maualuga, who could turn out to be a tremendous two-down linebacker at the next level. If LSU’s Tyson Jackson or Tennessee’s Robert Ayers fall (which are decent possibilities), then the Bolts could go with one of them, or a surprise like Missouri DT Evander Hood. Trading down is also a major possibility, too.

17. New York Jets: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
New head coach Rex Ryan has done a nice job upgrading the defense this offseason with the additions of linebacker Bart Scott and cornerback Lito Sheppard. While the Jets could still stand to upgrade the defensive end position, wide receiver remains their most pressing need and Heyward-Bey would give them a player who has great size, speed and that can stretch the field in the vertical passing game.

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago): Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Reach! Reach! REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH! I know – this is a massive reach. I don’t really believe the Broncos would stay at this spot if they value Brace, which they might given their need for a 3-4 nose tackle. But since I’m not predicting any trades, I’ll pencil Brace into this spot but assume Denver is going to get him later in the draft after trading back. REEAAAAACCH!

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
The Bucs are moving away from the “Tampa 2” scheme under new head coach Raheem Morris and they need another pass-rushing threat opposite Gaines Adams on the defensive line. If Maybin falls to this spot, he would give Tampa a nice edge rusher and could provide pressure on the quarterback. He would also inject some youth at the position, with Kevin Carter set to turn 36 this year. Adding an interior lineman such as Peria Jerry, Evander Hood or Ron Brace is an option as well.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Davis might not fall this far and the Lions could certainly look to address their need at offensive tackle with a player like Eben Britton. But Davis is the top cornerback prospect in the draft and he would fill an immediate need for Detroit. Some have questioned Davis’s character because he reportedly got into spats with the coaching staff at Illinois, but he’s an athletic marvel and could turn out to be a great pick if he stays motivated and keeps his head on straight.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
After trading for left tackle Jason Peters, the Eagles could go a variety of ways with this pick. Tight end remains a need and that means Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew is an option. Outside linebacker is also an area of concern with Omar Gaither losing his starting job to second-year undrafted player Akeem Jordan at the end of last year. But ultimately, Brian Westbrook turns 30 this year, is always an injury risk and Correll Buckhalter signed with Denver. The Eagles could trade out of his spot and still land a productive running back later on, but Moreno is one of the more underrated prospects in this entire draft. He doesn’t posses elite speed, but his vision is outstanding and some at Georgia have compared him to Hershel Walker.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Some might look at this pick and scoff considering the Vikings have two of the best defensive tackles in the league in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. But they’re not necessarily deep at the position and Pat Williams is 36 and coming off injury. Jerry would also give them a nice interior pass-rusher and would certainly be a solid addition if Pat and Kevin are suspended for the start of the season for violating the league substance abuse policy last year. I could also see the Vikes selecting a possession receiver like Hakeem Nicks and a center like Alex Mack to fill the void left by Matt Birk.

23. New England Patriots: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Several media outlets (including Don Banks of SI.com) say that Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler is a lock to go to New England at this pick. Which is exactly why I’m going with Jenkins. Every time a player is a “lock” to go to a team past the top 10, it’s usually wrong and I don’t trust anything coming out of New England around this time because Bill Belichick is the last person to let any draft information leak. Jenkins is a perfect fit for Belichick’s scheme because he’s smart, intuitive and has a great head on his shoulders. He would be a solid pick here.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
I’ve gone round and round with this pick for weeks. The Falcons have several needs including tight end, outside linebacker, defensive tackle, defensive end and safety. Everyone and their mother assumes that the Falcons are going to take Brandon Pettigrew if he’s available, but considering the tight end position is an afterthought in Mike Murlarkey’s offense, I bet they wait until later in the draft to fill that need. The top need is at defensive tackle, which makes Peria Jerry (if he’s available) and Evander Hood possibilities, although Hood is a better fit than Jerry because Jerry doesn’t play nose and that’s the position Atlanta needs to address. But at the end of the day, the safety class is weak this year and if Atlanta waits, it might not be able to address that need later in the draft. So they take Delmas here and wait to grab a DT, OLB and TE later in the draft. But I could see the Falcons going with any one of these prospects at No. 24: Pettigrew, Delmas, Hood, Clint Sintim and Clay Matthews.

25. Miami Dolphins: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Miami doesn’t have much in terms of starting-quality cornerbacks outside of Will Allen. Smith is a very good athlete who doesn’t mind coming up to play the run and is fundamentally sound. He’s not the biggest prospect, but he seems like a Bill Parcells-type of athlete and has loads of experience.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
The Ravens have needs at safety, cornerback and defensive end, but their interest in Anquan Boldin suggests that they might go wide receiver with this pick. Derek Mason is consistent, but he’s getting up there in age and Mark Clayton has not proved that he can make much of an impact. There might not be any way Maclin falls this far (he’s slated to go in the top 15), but if he does, he would be the ultimate steal at this spot.

27. Indianapolis Colts: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
In my first two mocks, I said that Peria Jerry would be a slam-dunk at this pick, but I have him going No. 22 to the Vikings now, so Hood falls to Indy. The Colts have a major need at defensive tackle with Darrell Reid now in Denver and Hood (6’2”, 300 pounds) would give their defensive line much-needed bulk considering Keyunta Dawson and Eric Foster each weigh well under 275 pounds.

28. Buffalo Bills (from Carolina through Philadelphia): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
There is a huge possibility that Pettigrew won’t fall this far, but if he does, he would seem like a lock to land in Buffalo. Some mock projections even have him going to the Bills at No. 11, although that seems like a bigger stretch than him falling to No. 28. Either way, Pettigrew would form a nice 1-2 combination with T.O. in the Bills’ offense.

29. New York Giants: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
What the hell do I do with this pick? If the G-Men don’t trade for Braylon Edwards, then a receiver is obviously needed, which is why I have Nicks penciled in at this spot. But if they do acquire Edwards, then tight end and safety become the two biggest needs and if Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas are both off the board, then it looks like the Giants will be reaching no matter what they do. Britt might not be available and if he isn’t, Hakeen Nicks is also a possibility.

30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
The Titans could use a corner to play opposite Cortland Finnegan once Nick Harper decides to call it quits. Butler has excellent quickness and athleticism, although he comes with some durability issues. Still, the former Husky is a smart, confident player and someone that Tennessee could bring along slowly to eventually replace Harper.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois
Is English a great fit for the Cardinals? Maybe not, but they do have needs at both defensive end and outside linebacker and English is the best hybrid prospect left on the board. Arizona needs another pass rusher, which is what English excelled at in college. Some have compared him to a poor man’s Terrell Suggs, which certainly bodes well for English’s potential.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Considering he’s the best guard prospect in the draft, Robinson might not last to the 32nd pick in the first round. But if he does, the Steelers would instantly upgrade their guard position with the 6’5”, 329-pound former Sooner. Robinson has outstanding strength and is very powerful.

I’m saying the over/under on correct picks for this mock is 7 and I’m taking the under. Anyone taking the over so I can feel good about myself?