DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- Raise your hand if you had the Bills sitting atop the AFC East standings alone after Week 3. I can hear someone right now: “Actually, I did call the Bills being 3-0.” LIAR! Nobody had the Bills at 3-0 because that would mean they would have had to beat the Patriots at home in Week 3 and pfff, like that was going to happen. Well, it did happen. Not unlike last Sunday against the Raiders, the Bill spotted the Patriots a 21-0 lead and then proceeded to storm back, intercepting Tom Brady four times as Ryan Fitzpatrick led the comeback of all comebacks. And what a great decision by Chan Gailey at the end. He knew with the score tied 31-31 and the Bills well within field goal range that he could bleed the clock, kick the field goal and leave Brady with no time to respond. Outstanding coaching move. Outstanding game. Outstanding win.

- I definitely thought the Giants would keep things closer than the 9-points that Vegas gave them heading into Philly, but wow. Didn’t see an outright win coming. With most of his receivers out due to various injuries, Eli Manning had one of the better games of his career. You really have to hand it to the Giants, who were playing on a short week and who have been banged up all year. Instead of lying down like many expected, they took the fight to the Eagles’ front doorsteps and then delivered a knockout in the fourth quarter. I don’t care if Michael Vick stays in this game or not: The Eagles weren’t winning it.

- What do you mean Cam Newton didn’t throw for 400 yards? See, total bust. Just like everyone predicted…

AND YOU CALL YOURSELF A PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM…

- Funny how Bart Scott once said that the Patriots “couldn’t stop a nose bleed,” because the same thing could be said about the Jets’ defense today. What a horrendous display of tackling by Rex Ryan’s veteran-laden squad. Hey Rex, did you not think that the Raiders would feature Darren McFadden? As if they were going to dress him and have him just hang out on the sidelines? Horrible effort by the J.E.T.S today, who got beat by a better-than-average Oakland team and, quite frankly, by themselves. Antonio Cromartie will love watching himself on film tomorrow: the corner was flagged four times for 46 yards on the day.

- The Patriots had a 21-0 lead, Tom Brady threw four touchdowns and Wes Welker caught 16 freaking passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns. And New England still lost. In a weird way, this defeat will probably serve Bill Belichick and his team well down the road, but man this one is going to sting all week.

- Sounds like Mikey Vick is a little frustrated these days. He should be. After boastfully saying in preseason that, “You can’t design a defense to stop me,” he’s gotten his ass handed to him in back-to-back weeks and has had to watch from the sidelines (or locker room) as his team loses. Last week he suffered a concussion versus his former team, the Falcons, and in the Eagles’ loss to the Giants on Sunday, he broke his non-throwing hand. Following the loss, Vick spouted off about how the refs “have got to do their jobs,” which was in reference to him getting hit all the time. He also said, “I don’t know why I don’t get the 15-yard flags like everybody else does.” Sorry, but I have zero sympathy for Vick. I watched both of the Eagles’ games the last two weeks and I didn’t see anything that wasn’t flagged that should have been. I understand his frustration but he’s not struggling because of the refs. The Eagles aren’t 1-2 because of the refs. Everyone knew the Eagles’ offensive line was a major question mark heading into the season and their defense is being exploited on the ground. The “Dream Team” was ready to hold up the Lombardi Trophy before it even took the field and now that things haven’t started the way they wanted, they just have to man up and stop beating themselves. That includes Vick, who has played sloppy football the last two weeks.

- My best friend Doug (a huge Bears fan), sent me this text during the second half of the Green Bay-Chicago game: “Here’s the offensive approach for the Bears: First down, sack for negative 5-8 yards. Second down, run for 0-to-negative-3 yards. Third down, incomplete pass with Jay Cutler head shake.” Fantastic. Lovie Smith had a chat with Mike Martz last year about incorporating the run more into his game plan and it looks like Smith might have to have that little sit-down again. How can Matt Forte only finish with nine carries? Blasphemy.

- News Flash: The Atlanta Falcons aren’t very good. That’s not to say they won’t figure it out eventually, but right now they’re getting completely exposed. The defense actually played well today in Tampa, but Matt Ryan took another massive beating thanks to an offensive line that has resembled one of those big revolving doors that you see at the front of nice hotels. They’re horrible right now, particularly left tackle Sam Baker. Ryan turned the ball over 67 times today but it’s the Jay Cutler affect: If a quarterback only has a millisecond to throw, he’s going to make mistakes. Of course, for the second week in a row the only time the Falcons moved the ball was when they went with the no huddle in the fourth quarter. Maybe it’s time to take the controls out of Mike Mularkey’s hands and put them into Matt Ryan’s. Just a thought.

- The Chargers, a 14.5-point home favorite, barely squeaked by a Kansas City Chiefs team that had been outscored 89-6 in their first two games. Philip Rivers has now thrown two interceptions in all three of San Diego’s games this season, which is noteworthy when you consider his highest interception total for a season is 15. Honestly, if the Raiders and Chargers were to play tomorrow at a neutral site, I wouldn’t hesitate to predict an Oakland victory. Even though they’re 2-1, the Bolts are off to a rather Bolt-like slow start to the season.

- Poor Rams. A lot of people were predicting them to win the NFC West this year but thanks to poor play and a brutal schedule, they’re 0-3 and look lost. For the third straight week, an opponent has returned a Sam Bradford fumble for a touchdown. How does that happen three times in a year, nevertheless in three straight weeks?

- Look, playing in Seattle is like playing on another planet: I don’t care how bad the Seahawks are. But how do the Cardinals lose to a team whose head coach is playing for a top-5 pick next season? (Oh, he’s not? Then you tell me why Pete Carroll is sticking with Tarvaris Jackson.) The NFC West is ripe for the taking and if the Cardinals can avoid beating themselves like they did today, they have a good shot to make the playoffs. But if Kevin Kolb (who threw two costly interceptions) can’t take over games like this, then Arizona will have a golden opportunity slip through its fingers.

- The Dolphins’ red zone woes continued in another ugly loss for Tony Sparano. It’s not his fault that his team absolutely loses its mind when it gets inside the 20, or that Reggie Bush can’t hang onto the ball, or that Chad Henne is his quarterback because the front office failed to land Kyle Orton in the offseason. But somebody has to pay in Miami and it’s going to be the head coach. The only question now is when Sparano is going to get the axe.

- Hey Chris Johnson, can the Titans demand a portion of your contract back if you continue to play like crap because you held out the entire preseason? No? Okay, just checking. I know you were criminally underpaid in your first three seasons but the Titans did pay you. You can start playing again.

- Sunday marked the third time in as many weeks that the Vikings thoroughly outplayed their opponent in the first half only come out after halftime and choke on applesauce. Word to the wise, Bill Musgrave: If you’re going to go for it on fourth-and-1 instead of taking a chip shot field goal, then at least hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson. I know Toby Gerhart is a big boy but you’ve got to dance with the partner that took you.

- What a frustrating loss for the Texans, who once again failed to drive the final nail in the coffin when it had an opponent on the ropes. Houston looked so good in the first half and well into the third quarter, but it allowed Drew Brees to take over in the second half. The Texans will certainly take a 2-1 start and I’m not going to suggest that they had this game in the bag. No way. Still, they at least had a great chance of pulling off the upset and just like many times before, they failed to come up big in the end.

“CHAMPIONSHIP…”

- It’s amazing. The Bears’ defense usually does a fantastic job taking away the big play, as it did again today versus the Packers. But Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay still managed to score 27 points despite not taking many chances downfield. That’s the difference between teams like the Packers, whom beat the Bears 27-17 on Sunday, and the Falcons, who wilted in Chicago during an ugly Week 1 loss. I point that out because a lot of people were high on the Falcons’ offense coming into the season and yet, games like this prove that no team in the NFC is in Green Bay’s class yet outside of maybe New Orleans. The Packers still have some issues to iron out on defense but their offense has been in midseason form since its first possession of Week 1.

- I know the Bucs just got a huge monkey off their backs today, but nobody is beating the Saints in that division this year. New Orleans has issues on defense but when Drew Brees and that offense gets revved up, it’s like watching someone paint a masterpiece. For those scoring at home, the Saints have now scored 30 points or more in each of their first two games. As I predicted at the start of the season, I like the chances of their being a repeat of opening night in the NFC Championship Game.

- The Raiders are one lousy half in Buffalo from being 3-0 on the season. Any offense that can do that to Rex Ryan’s defense deserves big-time respect and as long as Darren McFadden can stay healthy, don’t think for a second he couldn’t contend for the MVP award. (I would have put the Raiders in the “Didn’t See that Coming” section but I actually predicted them to at least cover the spread today.)

- Anyone think the Ravens were pissed off about their effort last week in Tennessee? Holy domination, Batman. Torrey Smith became the first rookie to score three touchdowns in the same quarter, Joe Flacco threw for a career-high 389 yards, and the defense racked up 11 quarterback hits and five sacks on Sam Bradford. Unfortunately for them they won’t get to play a banged up St. Louis team every week but imagine if Baltimore would at least give that kind of effort every Sunday.

- What a game by Bucs’ middle linebacker Mason Foster, who started and called the defensive plays today while Quincy Black was out with an ankle injury. Foster was a man-child against the run and took down Matt Ryan on a huge sack in the third quarter. Might want to keep the kid on the field, Raheem Morris.

- Nice finish for Colt McCoy. He didn’t have a great game but he was nine of 13 for 80 yards on the Browns’ final drive, which concluded with a 14-yard touchdown pass to Mohamed Massquoi (who made an excellent leaping catch) with 43 seconds remaining. The West Coast Kid continues to make strides.

- Today was an important win for the Lions and not just because it got them to 3-0 on the season. They played awful in the first half against the Vikings but they showed a little character in bouncing back and earning a hard-fought 26-23 win. This is the type of victory that will serve a young team like Detroit all season. Because they believe they can win now, no matter what the circumstance. The Vikings aren’t world-beaters by any means but still, it was a great win for the Lions. And by the way, that Calvin Johnson guy is pretty s.i.c.k.

Garrett Hartley’s best friend right now goes by the name of Sebastian Janikowski.

Just three hours after Hartley missed what would have been a game-winning 29-yard field goal for the Saints (who wound up losing to the Falcons in overtime earlier in the day), Janikowski missed his own chip shot as the Raiders fell to the Cardinals 24-23 in the final seconds of the fourth quarter.

Bruce Gradkowski and Darren McFadden led the Raiders on an 11-play, 66-yard drive to the Arizona 14-yard line to set Janikowski up with what should have been a game-winning kick. But he pushed the 32-yard field goal right and the Cardinals hung on to a not-so-well-deserved victory. (They turned the ball over three times and committed seven penalties for 104 yards. This coming after turning the ball over three times and committing 10 penalties for 109 yards in a loss to the Falcons last week.)

Besides Janikowski’s miss, the story here is the continued stellar play of Gradkowski, who completed 17-of-34 pass attempts for 255 yards and a touchdown. He did throw an interception, but he led the Raiders into the red zone twice late in the fourth quarter and gave them a chance to win. If anyone thought he would relinquish the starting quarterback job after snatching it from Jason Campbell last week, you were mistaken. It looks like for now, Tom Cable made the right decision to stick with Gradkowski.

Go ahead, Bruce – get down with your bad throwing-motion self.

On paper, the AFC West is definitely one of the weaker divisions in football. The Chargers remain the team to beat, while the Broncos are just trying to make it to their opener without losing another starter to injury.

But the West usually produces a surprise or two along the way (i.e. Denver last year), so don’t count out the Broncos, Raiders or Chiefs before the season starts. All three of those teams come with some glaring weaknesses, but it’s not like the Chargers are the picture of perfection.

Here’s how I see things shaking out in the AFC West in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season. (If the links aren’t available now for some teams, check back because they will be before the season starts.)

1. Chargers

What to Like: After finishing fifth in the league in passing yards per game (271.1) in 2009, the Chargers should once again be explosive through the air. Losing Vincent Jackson is a major blow, but adding a pass-catching back like Ryan Mathews in the draft was a nice coup. Philip Rivers returns after compiling a 104.4 QB rating last season and developing into one of the best signal callers in the game. Again, the loss of Jackson hurts, but Malcolm Floyd is ready for a breakout campaign, Antonio Gates returns as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL and the team recently acquired Patrick Crayton from the Cowboys. Brandyn Dombrowski has also looked good filling in for Marcus McNeill, who continues to holdout while seeking a new contract. Defensively, free safety Eric Weddle is coming off a great ’09 season, while Shaun Phillips and Stephen Cooper remain steady at their linebacker positions.
What Not to Like: Is there anybody left that GM A.J. Smith hasn’t pissed off? This team managed to lose its top wideout and is close to watching its best offensive tackle (McNeill) holdout well into the season. Defensively, Shawne Merriman is back but who knows how productive he’ll be after a poor showing in ’09, while Larry English failed to impress last season as well (albeit as a rookie). The defensive line lost their top run-stuffer when Jamal Williams was released and Luis Castillo has been living off his reputation for the last two years. The entire defensive line, in fact, is arguably this team’s biggest weakness. The secondary, outside of Weddle, has a ton of question marks as well.
Keep Your Eye On: Malcolm Floyd
The 28-year-old out of Wyoming will finally have his opportunity to shine now that Jackson is gone (or rather, not playing). He’s been Rivers’ favorite target so far this offseason after finishing fourth in the league last year in yards-per-catch average. If he can build off the nine-catch, 140-yard performance he had in Week 17 last year (while Jackson was out), then Floyd could be another dangerous weapon in the Chargers’ arsenal.
The Final Word: If there were another team in this division that I thought had a remote chance of overtaking the Chargers, I would probably have them winning the division. But because the West is so weak this year, the Bolts should have no problems winning 10-plus games and claiming the division again, even though they have a several weaknesses heading into the new season. Whether or not they advance in the playoffs is another story. The key is Rivers, who is an exceptional talent that has proven he can carry this team during the regular season. But the playoffs are a different animal – he’s going to need help and while Mathews looks like he has all the tools to make him a solid young player, relying on a rookie is always a dangerous proposition. Defensively, this team has way too many question marks and unless guys like Merriman or English step up, I think they’re going to struggle at every level this year. A division crown looks to be on the horizon, but so does another one-and-done showing in the postseason.

San Diego Chargers 2010 NFL Question Mark: Defensive Line

2. Broncos

What to Like: Say what you will about Kyle Orton, but the guy looked great in preseason and has a full year of Josh McDaniels’ system under his belt. He may not be the flashiest quarterback in the league, but he’s efficient and that’s what McDaniels’ offense calls for. He’ll also have a set of good possession receivers in Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal to throw to, plus a dangerous pass-catcher out of the backfield in second-year player Knowshon Moreno. Defensively, the additions of Jamal Williams (one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league over the past decade) and Justin Bannan gives Denver a massive upgrade along the D-line and the secondary boasts two players that are still at the top of their game in corner Champ Bailey and safety Brian Dawkins.
What Not to Like: The pass rush took an enormous hit when outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (who led the league in sacks last season) was lost for the year when he tore a pectoral muscle earlier this offseason. It doesn’t matter how good the secondary is if the quarterback knows he has all day to find a receiver. The pass-rush affects every level of the defense and without one, a team is asking for trouble. Offensively, the Broncos got rid of off-field headache Brandon Marshall but they also traded away their best playmaker. If this offseason is any indication, rookie Demaryius Thomas isn’t going to make much of an impact, which means Gaffney and Royal will be counted on to make a couple of big plays in the passing game. Can they do that? The interior of the offensive line will need to step up their performance after struggling last year, especially with tackle Ryan Clady missing most of the offseason due to an injury.
Keep Your Eye On: Knowshon Moreno
If this kid can stay healthy he’s going to be the Broncos’ best playmaker. All eyes are on rookie Tim Tebow this season (even though he’s a backup and will probably only be used in special packages barring an injury to Orton), but Moreno has the best opportunity to make the biggest impact in both the running and passing games.
The Final Word: I would love to move either the Chiefs or Raiders up to this spot – I’m dying to, in fact. But the bottom line is that even without Dumervil and Marshall, the Broncos are still a better overall team. Yeah they’re going to struggle, but if Orton plays as well as he did in the preseason and Moreno can stay healthy, the offense should be better than people think. But without a true playmaker at wideout (save for Thomas, who still has plenty of time to turn around a slow start if he can get healthy) and a pass rush on defense, this team isn’t going anywhere. They’ll be lucky to win eight games again.

Denver Broncos 2010 Question Mark: Pass Rush

3. Chiefs

What to Like: Even though Matt Cassel failed to impress last season in his first year with the Chiefs, Charlie Weis was hired as the team’s new playcaller and we all know Weis’ track record for success (uh, in the NFL). Cassel also has a couple of solid pieces around him in running backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, as well as receivers Dwayne Bowe (who hopefully doesn’t get held back by Cassel), Chris Chambers and rookie Dexter McCluster. Defensively, the secondary is by far the strength of the unit. Thanks to Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and 2010 first round pick Eric Berry, the Chiefs have the makings of a great young defensive backfield. Tamba Hali has also transitioned well from being a 4-3 defensive end to a 3-4 outside linebacker and could be the next Elvis Dumervil.
What Not to Like: Cassel must improve his fundamentals (namely his throwing motion) and decision-making if the Chiefs are ever going to see a return on their 2009 investment (i.e. a second round pick and $63 million). Unfortunately, Cassel isn’t expected to have much help up front, as Brandon Albert continues to struggle at left tackle (and why shouldn’t he seeing how he was a guard in college?) and Ryan O’Callaghan can’t stop edge rushers. Defensively, Tyson Jackson was a massive disappointment as a rookie last year and Glenn Dorsey (who isn’t a fit in the 3-4) continues on his path to bustville. At linebacker, former first round pick Derrick Johnson can’t get out of Todd Haley’s doghouse and is being pushed by Demorrio Williams at inside linebacker. Jovan Belcher looks to have the upper hand on Corey Mays, but he hasn’t won a starting job yet either. It’s never a good sign when a team hasn’t named its starting inside linebackers heading into a new season.
Keep Your Eye on: Dexter McCluster
I don’t know what kind of opportunities he’ll have in Weis’ offense, but McCluster is lighting in a bottle. At 5’8” and 170 pounds, there’s some concern that he won’t be able to stand up to the pounding playing in the NFL, but there’s no doubt that the rookie is explosive when he gets the ball in his hands. Hopefully he’ll get a chance to show what he can do in the Chiefs’ offense this year and he could be dangerous in the slot.
The Final Word: The West is weak but I don’t think KC is quite ready to take advantage yet. There are a slew of young players that need to prove themselves this year, starting with Cassel. Haley hired Weis specifically to transform Cassel into a quality starting quarterback and so far there haven’t been many signs that point to him breaking out. If he struggles this season, the Chiefs may be looking for another quarterback in 2011. Defensively, unless guys like Jackson, Dorsey and Johnson stop under performing, then we’re not going to see how good this young secondary can be. Just going off potential, this team could finish as high as second in the division. But we can’t go off potential in the NFL, now can we?

4. Raiders

What to Like: The Raiders are starting to build some consistency on the defensive side of the ball and shouldn’t be as bad as people think. Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly and Matt Shaughnessy are coming off good 2009 campaigns, while long-time Jaguar John Henderson was signed this offseason to provide depth at the tackle position. The team also added former first round pick Kamerion Wimbley (who has largely been a disappointment so far in his career, but could benefit from a change of scenery – albeit in Oakland) in a trade with the Browns and selected promising middle linebacker Rolando McClain in the first round of April’s draft. In the secondary, Nnamdi Asomugha will keep quarterback’s up at night and Chris Johnson held his own after struggling early in ‘09. Michael Huff will probably never live up to his draft status, but at least he proved to be a productive piece on Oakland’s defense last season. Offensively, the unit is littered with potential (Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Chaz Schilens, Zach Miller, Louis Murphy) and finally got a player in Jason Campbell that will provide some consistency at the quarterback position.
What Not to Like: The offensive line is still a mess. Robert Galley has made a nice transition from tackle to guard, but he struggles staying healthy and there’s little to no depth behind him. Mario Henderson was one of the worst tackles in football last year and there are questions at nearly every other position. As mentioned above, the Raiders have plenty of talent at the skill positions, but they either under perform (Heyward-Bey) or can’t stay healthy (McFadden, Bush, Schilens). Murphy is a player to watch for this season, but he has to improve on the seven drops he had from a year ago. Defensively, this team needs a better nickel back then Stanford Routt and could use another pass rusher as well. If Wimbley fails to produce, then the secondary could be left in coverage for a long time.
Keep Your Eye On: Darren McFadden
The time is now for McFadden. Bush is expected to miss at least a quarter of the season after having thumb surgery, which means McFadden will have every opportunity to shine in Oakland’s offense. His line won’t do him any favors, but if he can stay healthy then he’s going to be Campbell’s best friend in 2010.
The Final Word: I contemplated putting the Raiders above the Chiefs, but in the end it’s a wash. They’re both going to struggle this year, so don’t get caught up in who I predicted third and who I predicted fourth. Adding Campbell was a great move by Al Davis (actually, dumping JaMarcus Russell was a great move – getting a competent quarterback in Campbell to run the offense was just smart), but he’s going to be reminded of his days in Washington thanks to Oakland’s O-line. That said, I love what the Raiders did this offseason and I applaud Davis for finally making some intelligent decisions. With only four playoff teams on this year’s schedule and the opportunity to play the rest of the AFC West, this team could win six games this year. But obviously I still think it’s going to be a losing season in Oakland.

Chris Wesseling of Rotoworld has released updated carry projections for the entire AFC, but let’s focus on five teams: the Chiefs, Texans, Colts, Bills and Raiders.

We’ll go one by one:

Jamaal Charles: 220
Thomas Jones: 140
Kestahn Moore: 30

Charles emerged as the Chiefs’ MVP last year, averaging 20 carries and 121 rushing yards once hit he the starting lineup at mid-season. The projection above accounts for Jones in slightly more than a Willis McGahee-type short-yardage/inside role, giving Charles just under 14 carries per contest. Throw in three receptions per week and it’s enough to leave Charles as a borderline RB1.

Obviously, these numbers disregard the fact that TJ is still atop the depth chart and the head coach is telling the press that Charles’s role is ‘undefined.’ While it would seem incomprehensible to fantasy owners that Haley would limit Charles’s touches given how well he played last season, the news out of KC should not be ignored. TJ has been overlooked everywhere he’s went and while I’m hoping for a 60/40 split like we see here, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more 50/50.

Arian Foster: 215
Steve Slaton: 125
Jeremiah Johnson: 20
Chris Henry: 10

The line for now trendy Foster love starts behind Rotoworld. We were hyping the former Tennessee star as a Dynasty deep sleeper once the Texans snatched him up after last year’s draft while promoting him as the potential answer in Houston by mid-November. Although Ben Tate’s season-ending broken fibula has killed Foster’s sleeper potential for this year, it certainly offers more clarity in this backfield: Foster is Batman; Slaton is Robin. Draft accordingly.

I didn’t jump on the Foster bandwagon until earlier this summer, but with Tate’s injury, he looks like he should vastly outplay his current draft position (9.02 over the last week). Look for his ADP to continue to rise. I’d start thinking about picking him in the 7th or the 8th. He played very well at the end of last season, has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff this summer, and it’s clear that the team doesn’t view Slaton as a feature back any longer.

Joseph Addai: 190
Donald Brown: 140
Mike Hart: 25

Brown’s assorted injuries and pass-protection woes (“God damn-it, Donald!”) led to Addai hogging 65 percent of the carries last season. That won’t happen again this year. Addai is due to hit free agency in 2011, and the Colts want to see what they have in their explosive 2009 first-rounder. Addai is being overdrafted as a reliable RB2.

People have been writing off Addai for a few years now, yet in PPR leagues, he finished as last season’s RB6. Pundits are optimistic about Brown’s chances because Addai is in a contract year, and the argument goes that the Colts will want to see what they have in Brown. Even so, Rotoworld is projecting 190 carries for Addai, which is 29 carries off of last year’s pace. Throw in 40 receptions and eight TD (a reasonable estimate for Addai given how often the Colts get into the redzone) and you still have a solid to serviceable RB2 — and that assumes Brown gets those 140 carries. What if the Colts instead elect to get all they can out of Addai while he’s still in town?

Fred Jackson: 190
C.J. Spiller: 150
Marshawn Lynch: 105

F-Jax is “shooting for” for a return from his broken hand by the season opener, which is on the optimistic end of the scale. I took 10 carries from his projection and split them between Spiller and Lynch. Jackson should remain the primary inside runner. He’s clearly outplayed Lynch for two years, and Spiller doesn’t run between the tackles.

Fred Jackson looked pretty good last year when he was the featured back, but he’s 29 years old and the Bills elected to draft C.J. Spiller as their RB of the future. Jackson is sidelined with a broken hand, so Spiller has a crack to take the starting job. The Bills’ offense is pretty pathetic, and this is shaping up as a RBBC, so my recommendation is to avoid it altogether, if you can.

Michael Bush: 190
Darren McFadden: 170
Michael Bennett: 30

Cable has given mixed signals on his intentions for the backfield, mentioning both a tandem attack and a “best man wins” competition. Bush is clearly a stronger inside runner while McFadden operates much better in space. My gut tells me McFadden is in for a breakout season, but Bush is the safe bet to lead this team in carries.

Bush averaged 4.8 ypc last year and was in the top 10 in yards after first contact, so the guy can run. With Jason Campbell under center, the Raiders should be able to run the ball more, which would seem to be Tom Cable’s preference. Bush is clearly the best first- and second-down back on the roster, while McFadden would be better served if he assumed a Reggie Bush-type role. But these are the Raiders and they’re unpredictable. I’d stay away unless you’re looking for a fourth RB in the 8th or 9th round.

Jason Campbell is getting the opportunity to start fresh. It might not be in the most ideal NFL situations, but it’s certainly a great fit for him.

On Saturday, the Redskins traded Campbell to the Raiders in exchange for a fourth-round pick in 2012. There are several media outlets reporting that Campbell already has a deal in place that will pay him $3.14 million this year and $4.5 million in 2011.

Oakland is one of the few places in the NFL where players would probably rather swim in shark invested waters than go to, but this really is a great match for Campbell. He’s not an elite quarterback by any means and he certainly needs a strong supporting cast around him in order to succeed, but he should have no problems beating out JaMarcus Russell and Bruce Gradkowski for the Raiders’ starting quarterback job. He has the strong arm that Al Davis covets and has a couple of players in Zach Miller, Chaz Schilens, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush at his disposal to help him succeed in Oakland’s offense.

I don’t expect Davis to outright release Russell without at least giving him one last chance to win the starting job. But if history is any indication, even the acquisition of Campbell won’t motivate Russell enough to work hard this summer. He just doesn’t have the mental fortitude, the drive or the passion to succeed in the NFL and will likely be out of the league soon enough.

Photo from fOTOGLIF
]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/04/24/raiders-are-a-solid-fit-for-jason-campbell/feed/ 0 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/12/10/decade-debates-15-best-college-football-players/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/12/10/decade-debates-15-best-college-football-players/#comments Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:00:17 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=30856

Judging which college football player was the best over the past decade can be a tricky endeavor. Do you rank a player that has won a Heisman higher than one that has not? Do you penalize a player if he played in a pass-happy system that allowed him to put up lofty numbers? Do you judge his performance based on the talent around him or the difficulty of his competition? As part of our ongoing Decade Debate series, here is a top 15 ranking of the best college football players of the past decade. Perhaps more than any of our lists in this decade series, this one could be debated the most given the factors that surround it.

15. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

If you want to be entertained, try turning on a Clemson game and watching Spiller for three-plus hours. He’s a terrific runner, an electrifying return man and one of the deadliest weapons in college football. He is the only player besides Reggie Bush to post 2,500 yards rushing, 1,500 yards in kickoff returns, 1,000 yards receiving and 5,000 yards in punt returns. He’s also tied a NCAA record for most kickoff returns for touchdowns with six. If it weren’t for a lackluster junior season, he’d probably rank higher on this list.

14. Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan

If you don’t know who Dan LeFevour is or scoffed at him being ranked on this list, then you haven’t been paying attention to college football the past couple years. LeFevour hasn’t received the attention that Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy or Sam Bradford have, but he’s posted better numbers than each of the three in almost every category. In 2007, he became only the second player in D-I history to pass for over 3,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 yards in a single season (Vince Young was the first). He also is the MAC’s all-time leader in total offense and currently holds the conference record for career completions, attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, total touchdowns and total offensive yards. He has totaled more touchdowns than any player in college football history and is third all-time in total offensive yards. Has he faced the talent that Tebow, McCoy and Bradford have over his career? No. But consider this: He doesn’t have the same talent around him either. Imagine what LeFevour could have accomplished playing with a defense the likes of Florida, Texas or Oklahoma’s.

13. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

Did Crabtree play in a system that allowed him to rack up tons of numbers? Absolutely. But he was always a phenomenal player, one capable of single-handily taking over a game with his skill level. He was a two-time All-American, a two-time Biletnikoff Award winner and a two-time Paul Warfield Trophy winner. He also played a huge role in Texas Tech’ upset over No. 1 Texas two years ago while hauling in 10 receptions for 127 yards and one touchdown – which happened to be the game-winner late in the fourth quarter. Had he played more than just two seasons, he might have topped all other receivers on this list.

12. Pat White, QB, West Virginia

Even though some will argue that he had things easy playing his career in the Big East, nobody can deny what White accomplished on the field. He racked up 6,051 passing yards and 56 passing touchdowns, while also compiling 4,480 yards and 47 rushing touchdowns. He accounted for a whopping 10,531 yards and 103 touchdowns over his career and also finished sixth in the NCAA among the most career victories as a starting quarterback with 34. Along with Steve Slaton, White helped put West Virginia on the map in terms of national title contention.

11. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State

Smith’s college career didn’t end well, as he completed just four of 14 passes for 35 yards along with an interception, a fumble and five sacks (uh, just to be clear, he was the one being sacked) in an embarrassing 41-14 loss to the Gators in the 2007 national title game. But Smith was a solid college quarterback, racking up 5,720 passing yards and 54 touchdowns over his career. He threw only 13 interceptions and also completed 62.7% of his passes while compiling just under 8,000 total yards and 68 total touchdowns. In 2006, he beat out Darren McFadden and Brady Quinn to win the prestigious Heisman Trophy and even though they lost, he led the Buckeyes to one of their three national title appearances of the decade.

10. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma

Peterson’s freshman season at Oklahoma was absolutely phenomenal and was almost good enough to get him on this list on its own. He broke the NCAA freshman rushing record with 1,925 yards and also led the nation in carries with 339. He was a finalist for the 2004 Heisman Trophy Award, which was the highest finish ever for a freshman player. Due to an ankle injury, he finished with only 1,208 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2005. A collarbone injury also took away most of his junior season, but he managed to finish with 1,112 rushing yards for a total of 4,045 rushing yards for his career. He finished just 73 yards shy of passing Billy Sims as Oklahoma’s all-time leading rusher.

9. Eric Crouch, QB, Nebraska

Consider this: Since Crouch graduated, no Nebraska team has finished in the top 10. The last of the great Cornhusker option quarterbacks, Crouch finished with a 21-4 record as a starter and helped lead a Nebraska offense that finished as the nation’s best in 2000 and 2001. The 2000 squad still holds the mark for the highest team rushing average of the decade with 349.3 yards per game.

8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech

Johnson’s Yellow Jackets never contend for any national titles, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t deserving of this ranking. He finished just shy of 3,000 yards for his career with 28 touchdowns, racked up 13 100-yard receiving games, and won the Biletnikoff Award in 2006. He was usually a one-man wrecking crew for GA Tech and virtually impossible to cover one-on-one. Despite facing double and even triple teams at times, he routinely made highlight reel plays and wound up being the highest player ever drafted out of Georgia Tech when the Lions selected him with the No. 2 overall pick in 2007.

7. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

McFadden was so good at Arkansas that the team essentially didn’t even need to have a quarterback on the field. The original Wildcat back, McFadden rushed for 4,590 yards in his career, which ranks him second all-time in career rushing yards in the SEC behind the great Herschel Walker (Georgia). McFadden also ranks seventh all-time in the SEC for career rushing touchdowns with 41 and holds most of Arkansas’ rushing records. He wound up throwing seven passing touchdowns out of the Wildcat formation and totaled 51 touchdowns in his three-year career. He capped off his collegiate career by helping the Razorbacks beat No. 1 LSU in triple-overtime in 2007.

6. Matt Leinart, QB, USC

Even though the man (Carson Palmer) he replaced was pretty damn good, Leinart is arguably the greatest passer in USC history. For his career, Leinart finished with 807 of his 1,245 pass attempts for a competition percentage of 64.8. He racked up 10,693 passing yards and 99 touchdowns to just 23 interceptions, making him the Trojans’ all-time leader in career touchdown passes and competition percentage. He ranks only second behind Palmer in completions and yardage and averaged nearly 8.6 yards per attempt while compiling an impressive 37-2 record as a starter. Ah yeah, he also won a Heisman Trophy, led USC to a BCS national championship in 2004 and an AP national championship in 2003.

5. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

It would take an hour to list the many records McCoy has set in his career, but here are just a few: He holds UT’s record for most total touchdowns, most touchdown passes in a career, most passing completions in a game, most consecutive passing completions in a game and most career passing yards in a season. He also holds the NCAA’s highest single season completion percentage at 77.6% and most wins by a starting quarterback with 44. McCoy was the runner up in last year’s Heisman race and before it’s all said and done, he might have a national title under his belt as well. Considering who took the snaps before him at Texas, his feats are nothing to scoff at.

4. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh

Fitzgerald won the Biletnikoff award for the best receiver in college football in 2003 and was a unanimous All-America selection that year as well. He also came in second for the Heisman in 2003, which was the closest a wideout has come to winning the prestigious award since Desmond Howard won it in 1991. For his career, Fitz caught 161 passes for over 2,600 yards and set a school record with 34 receiving touchdowns. He was also the only player in PITT history to notch consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons and he set a NCAA record with at least one touchdown catch in 18 straight games. At times, he was almost un-guardable – much like he is now in the NFL.

3. Reggie Bush, USC

Bush was an absolutely electrifying open-field runner and one of the most dangerous athletes while playing for USC. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2005 by averaging 8.7 yards per carry, while also rushing for over 1,700 yards and scoring 16 total touchdowns. He ranks 10th in college football Division I-A history with 6,551 all-purpose yards and was one of the most thrilling athletes to ever play in the NCAA. During his Heisman season in 2005, he led the nation with more than 220 all-purpose yards per game and was almost unstoppable with the ball in his hands. Unfortunately, his career will also be associated with the possibility that he accepted cash and prizes under the table.

2. Vince Young, QB, Texas

Talk about a winner: Young posted a 30-2 career record while at Texas. His .938 winning percentage as a starting quarterback ranks sixth best in Division I-A history and places him No. 1 in wins by UT signal callers. His 6,040 career passing yards ranks him fifth in school history, while his 44 touchdowns ranks him fourth. His 3,127 rushing yards makes him UT’s all-time leading player in that category and his 37 rushing touchdowns places him fifth. Young will be best known for what many consider to be the greatest performance in Rose Bowl history after he rushed for 200 yards and threw for 267 yards in a thrilling come-from-behind 41-38 victory over USC.

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

Perhaps the greatest thing about Tebow is that he’s more than just records – and yes, he has those too. He holds the SEC record for rushing touchdowns and points scored and was the first player to compile 20-plus touchdowns rushing and passing in the conference’s history. He’s also been apart of two national championship teams, is a two-time Maxwell Award winner, a three-time First-team All-SEC winner, the 2007 Davey O’Brein Award winner and the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner. But on top of that, perhaps no player outside of Vince Young has willed his team to victory this past decade more than Tebow has. He epitomizes what college football is all about: Passion, pride and determination. He might not make a great NFL quarterback some day, but he has been one hell of a college football player this past decade.

Honorable Mention: Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii; Graham Harrell, QB Texas Tech; LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, TCU; Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Carson Palmer, QB, USC; David Pollack, DE, Georgia; Ken Dorsey, QB, Miami; Eric Berry, S, Tennessee; A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State; Ed Reed, S, Miami; Andre Johnson, WR, Miami; Jamar Fletcher, CB, Wisconsin; Terrence Newman, CB, Kansas State; Tommie Harris, DT, Oklahoma; Jason White, QB, Oklahoma, Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Anquan Boldin returned to a limited practice. Boldin said, “It’s only week one. I’d rather sit out game one as opposed to sitting out four or five other games. You just have to use your discretion.” That doesn’t sound good for his prospects of playing in Week 1. Steve Breaston would be first in line to start, but he’s dealing with a sore knee, so Jerheme Urban could potentially eat into Breaston’s snaps.

Pierre Thomas has been officially ruled out for Week 1. Mike Bell, Mike Bell, Mike Bell. I wrote on Tuesday that Thomas owners (and even non-owners) should grab Bell. He’s a solid RB2/flex play against the hapless Detroit rush defense.

Cassel is questionable for Week 1. Not a big surprise here. Owners should probably keep Cassel on the bench even if he does play. The Ravens are a bad matchup for any passing game.

Bernard Berrian and Kevin Walter are both game-time decisions. It would be wise to sit both players even if they do play, assuming that you have a decent option to plug in. It’s tough to battle back from a hamstring injury and be effective right away.

Kyle Orton will start against the Bengals. It’s not a terrible matchup, but Orton’s preseason performance is not encouraging. Only use him if you’re desperate (or you’re in a 2 QB league). It does help that Brandon Marshall is behaving.

Raiders name Darren McFadden as their starting RB. He has had a very impressive preseason, so this is just a formality. Even if he didn’t start, he’s going to play a ton of snaps because he is easily the Raiders most explosive player. (And he better perform, because I started him over Santonio Holmes this week!)