What constitutes a “breakout” season? To me, it’s a talented player who has been in the league at least one year who is about to see a big increase in minutes. Here is a list of 10 players (in no particular order) who I think will have career seasons in 2009-10.

1. Tyrus Thomas, Bulls
The 23 year-old is entering his fourth season and will probably be the Bulls’ starter at power forward. He averaged 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds in 27.5 minutes last season, and an increase in minutes would enhance those numbers. Now that he has an effective mid-range jump shot, he can use that and his athleticism to get to the basket.

2. Anthony Randolph, Warriors
Randolph is a popular breakout pick this season after a great summer league and flashes of brilliance in his rookie year. He only played about 18 minutes per game last season, and is playing almost 28 minutes in the preseason, starting every game in which he’s appeared. Don Nelson may not start him during the regular season since he’s been battling some injuries, but expect him to get plenty of run this year.

3. Anthony Morrow, Warriors
Let’s stay in Oakland, shall we? Not to read too much into preseason stats, but through eight games, the second-year Morrow is averaging 22.0 points on 58% shooting (52% from 3PT). He’s going to come off the bench, but that might not last for long if Stephen Jackson eventually gets traded. Morrow is one of the league’s best shooters, nailing almost 47% of his threes a year ago.

4. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
With Yao Ming out and Tracy McGrady hobbled, the Rockets don’t have a whole lot of offensive options and Brooks is one of the best shooters the team has. He averaged 11.2 points in 25 minutes per game last season. If he gets 32-35 minutes per game, he should average somewhere in the 14-16 ppg range.

5. Louis Williams, 76ers
He’s a very different player than Andre Miller, the guy he’s being asked to replace. He isn’t going to drop a lot of dimes, but the guy can score, and if he gets starter’s minutes his averages are going to jump. In the preseason, he’s averaging 14.9 ppg in 27 minutes of PT.

6. Courtney Lee / Chris Douglas-Roberts, Nets
I’m listing them both because it’s not clear which will be the Nets’ starting shooting guard on opening day. It may not matter because the other might be the starting small forward. In the preseason, CDM and Lee are averaging 18.5 ppg and 17.0 ppg, respectively. While Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are likely to lead the Nets in scoring, Lee and Douglas-Roberts could both average 12-14 ppg.

7. J.R. Smith, Nuggets
Smith has already had a breakout year (in his first season with the Nuggets), but the departure of Dahntay Jones gives Smith the chance to start. George Karl started Jones last season because of his commitment to defense, so it’s just as likely that he finds another defensive-oriented off guard to fill that vacated role. Smith has the talent to start, but can he keep his head on straight and play enough defense to keep Karl happy? (By the way, he’s suspended for the first seven games.)

8. Channing Frye, Suns
After a nice rookie season (12p/6r) in New York, Frye wasn’t as good in his second season and landed in Portland where he didn’t get much run. Now he’s the starting center in Phoenix and is averaging 12.3 points and 4.0 rebounds in 26.8 minutes of playing time. The Suns are awfully thin on the front line, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Frye ends up playing 30-35 minutes a game.

9. Julian Wright, Hornets
While he isn’t shooting particularly well (41%) in the preseason, it appears that Byron Scott has finally given up on Peja Stojakovic and is ready to hand over the keys to Wright, who has started all six preseason games in which he has appeared. He’s a great athlete and versatile player, but the big mystery with Wright is his three-point shooting. He hit 10-24 attempts in his rookie season, but just 2-21 in his second year. The Hornets need shooters for Chris Paul to pass to, so if Wright doesn’t start knocking down shots, Scott might go back to Peja.

10. Hakim Warrick, Bucks
Warrick is leading the Bucks in preseason scoring with 14.4 ppg. He’ll battle with Luc Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova and Joe Alexander for minutes. Scott Skiles will likely start Mbah a Moute at one forward spot because he’s a great defender, but the other is up for grabs. Regardless, Warrick should get plenty of minutes and is on a one-year contract, so he’s very motivated.

Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts fighting to be Nets’ starting shooting guard. Courtney Lee is a player. He can shoot, score and defend, and he’s still troubled by Orlando’s decision to trade him away. That layup he missed in the Finals was no gimme. By the time he was in position to release the ball, his entire torso was behind the backboard. It’s a shame that’s what people remember of Lee from last season. This battle may go deeper into camp, but Lee has more talent and should be starting for the Nets this season.

Replacement refs aren’t up to snuff. Last night in the Rockets-Celtics game, 75 fouls were called and 102 free throws were shot. This is astounding. NBA refs get a bad rap. Basketball is a tough game to officiate because there is so much contact on any given possession. Refs have quite a bit of leeway, which can lead to inconsistency from game to game and from crew to crew.

HC Don Nelson plans to use Stephen Curry as a starter…at times. He says it’s going to be a matchup thing because Curry is so good. So look for Curry to start when the opponent also has a couple of smallish guards in the starting lineup. But wouldn’t a Monta Ellis/Stephen Curry backcourt create huge matchup problems on the other end of the court? I think most off guards would have a tough time getting back in transition to cover Curry on the wing.

When will the Milwaukee Bucks get a new arena? I grew up outside of Milwaukee and remember when the Bradley Center was state of the art. Needless to say, that was a while ago. The Bucks are in a tough spot because with the recession, they’re going to have a tough time making money this season unless the team is playoff-caliber. Given the environment, neither the city nor the franchise are going to want to pay for an arena, so there’s a real chance that the Bucks’ owner — Senator Herb Kohl — sells the team in the next few years. It would be a shame, because Bucks fans are great when the team is good (or at least mediocre).

Delonte West leaves the team…again. Other than maybe the Lakers, the Cavs are probably the best equipped to handle this kind of drama during training camp. With the whole LeBron/Shaq honeymoon, eyes are elsewhere, but West has the potential to become a distraction as the season wears on. He’s too good to cut loose, but not so good that he deserves special treatment. It’s going to be interesting to see how the Cavs handle West if he continues to miss time.

Whoa! I thought Vince Carter might be on the move, but I wasn’t expecting this.

The New Jersey Nets have agreed to a trade in principle with the Magic that will send Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson to Orlando for Rafer Alston, Tony Battie and Courtney Lee, two league sources told ESPN.com.

As for the Nets, the move is a cost-cutting measure. Both Alston and Battie are in the last year of their contracts, and trading for them would shave $16.5 million off New Jersey’s roster in the summer of 2010 and put the Nets well below the salary cap.

Now this is a trade that helps both teams, unlike the Suns’ Shaq giveaway and the Bucks’ donation of Richard Jefferson to the Spurs’ championship fund. Not only do the Nets get loads of salary cap relief — Carter has three years and $52 million remaining on his contract — they get a nice prospect to replace him in Courtney Lee, who averaged better than 11 points per game and 43% 3PT shooting in February and March. The Nets project to go into the summer of 2010 with almost $30 million in cap space.

For the Magic, Carter adds a boost of athleticism to lineup of spot up shooters. But how will this affect the team’s ability to re-sign Hedo Turkoglu? If they can get him to re-up, they’d have a lineup of Jameer Nelson, Carter, Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard that looks deadly on paper. I think they’re planning on retaining him, but the Magic are looking at a pretty hefty payroll over the next few years with Carter on the roster.

How would the 2008 NBA Draft go if owners and GMs knew then what they know now?

Here’s my take…

#1 Chicago: Derrick Rose
The Bulls don’t want a mulligan. They are perfectly happy with their franchise point guard.

#2 Miami: Brook Lopez
Michael Beasley isn’t a bust, no matter what anyone says. But if the Heat had it all to do over again, they’d go with Lopez here, who posted 13.0 points and 8.1 rebounds in about 31 minutes of playing time.

#3 Minnesota: O.J. Mayo
I don’t think the T-Wolves would do anything differently. They’d still draft Mayo and trade with Memphis for Love. Why not?

#4 Seattle/OKC: Russell Westbrook
Likewise, the Thunder have to be happy with what they have in Westbrook, who averaged 20.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in February.

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Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20’s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).

It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.

On with the list…

10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.

9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6′10″ 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.

8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…

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On Wednesday, after two straight narrow defeats at the hands of the Celtics, I asked, “Why can’t the Magic finish games?” I referenced an article by John Carroll, where he said the problem was four-fold:

1. The Magic don’t fully commit at the defensive end.
2. They refuse to pound the ball inside.
3. They fall in love with the three-point shot.
4. They don’t trust their coach the way the Celtics do.

I focused on #2, and threw in a couple of other problems:

5. Poor late-game play from Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis.
6. They don’t have a guy who can consistently get to the hole.

So what was the difference in the Magic’s win in Game 6?

1. Check…they held the Celtics to just 75 points, 13 in the fourth quarter.
2. Check…Dwight Howard attempted 16 shots and 12 free throws; both are series highs.
3. No change…the Magic were just 6 of 26 for the game.
4. It’s hard to gauge how much they trust Stan Van Gundy on a game-to-game basis. They responded with good defense and a strong game plan to feed Howard the ball, so they must trust his instruction to a certain extent.

5. What about Turkoglu and Lewis? Here are their fourth quarter stats:

Lewis: 2-5 (0-1 3PT), 8 points, 3 rebounds, steal, assist
Turkoglu: 1-5 (1-3 3PT), 3 points, 2 rebounds

So Lewis and Turkoglu went a combined 3 of 10 for 11 points and five rebounds in Game 6. They shot 3 of 15 for a total of 11 points (combined) in Game 4 and Game 5. Turkoglu didn’t play particularly well, but the one shot he hit in the fourth quarter was HUGE. It came with 1:23 remaining and the Magic clinging to a three-point lead. Lewis clearly played well. He shot just 40% in the quarter, but he got to the line twice for four more points, had an assist, a steal and drew an offensive foul on Kendrick Perkins.

6. Check…Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston each had key driving layups in the fourth quarter. To win close games down the wire, you have to have a player (or two) that are effective at getting into the lane and finishing. Alston and Lee stepped up in the fourth quarter for the Magic.

On the whole, the Magic did a better job across the board, save for some very suspect three-point shooting. But can they post a repeat performance in Game 7 in front of a very hostile crowd?

Two of the four best teams in the league square off tonight in Orlando. The Celtics come to town riding a six-game winning streak (which followed a four-game losing streak), while the Magic have won seven straight, and 16 of their last 18, which included wins over the Lakers (x 2), the Spurs (x 2) and the Hornets.

Much has been written about the Celtics, so let’s focus on the Magic. Orlando might be playing the best ball of anyone right now, and they’re really starting to remind me of the 1995 Houston Rockets squad that swept Shaquille O’Neal, Penny Hardaway and the rest of the Magic in the Finals to win their second straight title. They have a true center that commands a double-team (Hakeem Olajuwon = Dwight Howard), a slasher on the wing that can also shoot the ball (Clyde Drexler = Hedo Turkoglu), a sharpshooting power forward (Robert Horry = Rashard Lewis), an assassin of a point guard (Kenny Smith = Jameer Nelson) and his young protege (Sam Cassell = Courtney Lee). The Magic aren’t as deep as those Rockets were — remember Otis Thorpe, Vernon Maxwell and Mario Elie? — and while that may be their undoing come playoff time, it’s hard to imagine Boston or Cleveland’s bench dominating anyone.

The Magic are 5th in the league in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency, which is directly related to their ability to hold the opposition to 42.6% from the field. Stan Van Gundy has done a terrific job teaching the core — Howard, Nelson, Turkoglu and Lewis — how to play defense and there isn’t a coach in the league that is doing more with less, at least at the elite-team level. At this point, he’s my choice for Coach of the Year.

Tonight’s game will be a nice test for the young Magic, and their crowd. With the defending champs coming to town, there should be a playoff atmosphere at Amway Arena, with the fans rising to their feet early and often. If the crowd sits on its hands for much of the first half, the team might be in trouble come playoff time. A real home court advantage is crucial to winning in the playoffs — just ask the Celtics.

The game is scheduled for 8 PM ET on TNT.