*Texas lost earlier in the week to Kansas State, so they wouldn’t have been #1 on Monday.
It was a tale of two halves for the Huskies, who turned the ball over 16 times in the first en route to an eight-point deficit at halftime. But after three more turnovers in the first three minutes of the second half, UConn didn’t turn it over again in the game. Amazing. How can a team turn the ball over 19 times in 23 minutes and then suddenly figure out how to take care of the ball?
This ball security led to a 13-0 run for UConn, giving the Huskies a five-point lead that they would never relinquish. UConn outscored Texas 43-22 over the last 14 minutes and change.
I have watched both Texas losses and it doesn’t seem like they have much of an identity. Verne Lundquist said that they can play any style of basketball, but when the chips were down, they didn’t seem to have a go-to play, or a go-to guy.
Damion James scored 23 points on 9 of 11 shooting from the field, but only had two attempts in the first 16 minutes of the second half, and both of those were on the offensive glass. Texas didn’t seem to run any plays for its star.
Jerome Dyson scored a career-high 32 points by getting hot from long range (4-8) in the second half. Kemba Walker added 19 points and 10 assists and Stanley Robinson chipped in with 17 points and 12 boards.
It is a big victory for the Huskies, who needed a signature win and are still without their coach, Jim Calhoun, who is on medical leave.
“After spending time with my family and friends and speaking with Coach (Jim) Calhoun, I have decided to give up my final year at UConn and enter my name in the 2009 NBA Draft,” Thabeet said via a statement. “I have had a great experience at Connecticut and cannot thank my coaches and teammates enough. I look forward to the challenge of playing professionally and know that my time here at UConn has prepared me to be successful in the future.”
The 7’3″ center averaged a double-double (13.6 points, 10.8 rebounds) and an eye-popping 4.2 blocks per game on the season. I think he has the potential to be a very good defensive-minded center (think Dikembe Mutombo). He’s pretty fluid for his size and can get up and down the court with ease. His hands seem small (as he loses the ball often when he brings it down below his waist) and his post moves need a lot of work. Like anyone with his size and natural athleticism, he’ll be as good as he wants to be.
He is a likely top 5 pick, so this decision makes sense.
It’s all right there in the title — my bracket is f*#kd.
The Pittsburgh Panthers played with fire for the entire tournament and they finally got burned. In the first three games, they showed tremendous poise in the clutch. But when they had a chance to put this game away, they blew it.
Up four with the ball and 2:56 remaining, Pitt brought the ball up against Villanova’s full court pressure. If Pitt converts there and goes up six or seven, it would be a tough road to hoe for Villanova. But Jermaine Dixon made a bad decision at half court, which led to a steal and eventually to a three-point play for Villanova. On Pitt’s next possession, Sam Young turned the ball over in the lane. And just like that, the Panthers’ four point lead turned into a one-point deficit.
Down four with 0:12 to play, it looked like all was lost, but DeJuan Blair slipped to the hoop for a bucket and the Wildcats turned the ball over going for the home run. Levance Fields was fouled and knocked down two free throws to tie the game with 5.5 seconds to play. One more stop and Pitt was going to force an overtime when they had absolutely no business doing so. But they made a mistake on the inbound play, allowing ‘Nova to catch the ball near halfcourt, where it was flipped to Scottie Reynolds who was streaking down the sideline. The long pass covered a lot of ground when Pitt should have forced Villanova to dribble the entire length of the court. Make them catch it in front of you!
Reynolds drove into the lane and hit a tough game-winner.
Argh!
Give credit to Villanova for playing a great game. As a team, the Wildcats shot 22 of 23 from the free throw line, which is outstanding given the pressure of an Elite Eight game. It’s going to be fun to see them play in the Final Four.
In the other Saturday game, UConn fended off a feisty Missouri team with a 12-5 run over the last two minutes. UConn looked a little out of sorts in the second half, but freshman Kemba Walker scored 23 points off the bench to put the Huskies over the top.
#3-seed Missouri vs. #1-seed UConn Tip-Off: 4:40 PM ET
Sagarin Ratings: UConn (94.21), Mizzou (91.04)
Line: UConn -5.5
Missouri’s strength is their forward duo of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll, but guard J.T. Tiller scored a season-high 23 points against Memphis. Mizzou got Memphis to play at its pace, but I don’t think that the Tigers are going to find the Huskies as willing to run with them. UConn plays its best defense when Hasheem Thabeet is planted firmly in the lane. They don’t foul (Memphis sent Mizzou to the line 45 times on Thursday) and they are pretty efficient offensively, which one of the flaws of John Calipari’s team. If UConn gets into an up-and-down affair, Thabeet is far more likely to find himself in sitting on the bench in foul trouble. I’d expect UConn to push when they have the advantage but otherwise slow the tempo down. Mizzou’s run has been great, but UConn is playing as well as anyone in the tournament and given the Huskies’ balance of talent, that’s a pretty scary proposition. But 5.5 points is a lot to give the Tigers, who are playing the best basketball of their season right now. I think I’d stay away from this one wager-wise, but UConn is my pick to win it.
#3-seed Villanova vs. #1-seed Pittsburgh Tip-Off: 7:05 PM ET
Sagarin Ratings: Pittsburgh (91.97), Villanova (89.59)
Line: Pittsburgh -2
I picked Pitt to win the whole thing and every game they love to scare the ever-loving crap out of me. Needless to say, I’m not as optimistic about the Panthers making it to the Final Four much less win the whole thing. The one thing that they’re doing better than anyone else this in this tournament is keeping their poise in the clutch. They have three of the best players in the college game in Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields, but they aren’t getting much offensive help from any of their other players. In each of the three tournament games, they’ve kept it in about second or third gear for much of the game before flipping a switch in the waning minutes. This is a dangerous game to be playing, especially against a Villanova squad that looks so good right now. The Wildcats have blown out two pretty good teams (UCLA and Duke) and they beat Pitt by 10 at home in the two teams’ only meeting this season. In that game, Blair was saddled with foul trouble, so Pitt should fare better if he’s able to play his usual minutes. So with the Panthers favored by two, we have a team that isn’t playing very well (but is winning) favored by a bucket over a team that is as hot as a pistol and already won the previous meeting. If I were a betting man and you put a gun to my head, I think I’d take the Wildcats and the points, though if the game is tied or within one with two minutes to play, Pitt probably covers (if that makes any sense). The thing that really worries me about laying any money on Nova is the fact that Panthers have already lost to the Wildcats and they know they have to take them seriously. I’d stay away from this one too. My brain is saying Nova and my gut is saying Pitt, but my pick is Pitt. I think they play better and win a tight one.
Calhoun addresses the report in the first few minutes of his press conference…
The part I love is this…
“It wasn’t a newspaper, I’m sorry. It was a blog story, I guess, that appeared on something that I probably can’t get a hold of, which is Yahoo.”
While it’s technically true that you can’t “get a hold of” a website, you can certainly get online and read the story before you make any comments about it.
And it wasn’t really a blog. It was a website story just like any other newspaper website story. Coaches (and politicians) like to use the term “blog” in kind of a sarcastic, negative fashion.
1. #11 Utah State looks like a sneaky smart pick against #6 Marquette.
The Golden Eagles are just 1-5 after losing Dominic James, their fourth-leading scorer and best playmaker, for the rest of the season. Granted, those five losses were to UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Villanova, and they only lost by an average of 7.2 points, but Marquette has to travel to Boise to face #25-ranked Utah State, who had a 19-game winning streak this season. The Golden Eagles better account for Gary Wilkinson and Jared Quayle, who make up one of the best inside-outside combinations west of the Mississippi.
2. The committee didn’t do Mississippi State any favors.
Congratulations on winning the SEC tournament, Bulldogs! Now we need you to make the 2000 mile-trip to Portland, Oregon by Thursday, where you’ll play the Pac-10 champions in their neighboring state. Good luck, and enjoy the Pacific Northwest!
3. UConn shouldn’t be seriously challenged until the Elite Eight, but this is UConn we’re talking about.
If the Huskies come out with a singular focus, no team on their side of the bracket should be able to keep up. Washington, Purdue and BYU are nice teams, but they don’t have the star power or coaching experience of the Huskies. Nor do they have anyone to matchup with Hasheem Thabeet on the inside. However, UConn is known for having tournament ADHD, so its entirely possible that one or more of these teams make the Huskies sweat late into the second half.
4. Missouri/Memphis should be a good one.
The Utah State/Marquette winner could easily give Mizzou a run, and Memphis might be challenged by the winner of the Cal/Maryland game, but if the Tigers face the…um…the other Tigers in the Sweet Sixteen, it’ll be a nice matchup. Memphis hasn’t played a good team since early February (when they blew out Gonzaga in Spokane) and Missouri just won the Big 12 tourney in convincing fashion. Both teams are stellar defensively, but Mizzou has an advantage on offense with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons on the front line.
Lately, I’ve been hitting the Joe Lunardi bracketology page over at ESPN on a daily basis — the guy knows his stuff. But I scrolled down and found myself intrigued by one of the comments (by EliSilverman):
Here’s some math to prove just how much better the Big East is than any other conference. The Big East has the lowest average projected seed amongst the top conferences (3.7), surpassing the ACC (4.2), Big 12 (5.5), PAC 10 (6.4), SEC (8.0) and Big 10 (8.1). Now, here’s a bit more math….I predict there’s a 75% chance that the semi-finalists of the Big East tournament also become the Final Four in the Big Dance.
All right, I’m not a math major — I just have an engineering degree — but in order to prove conference strength, it’s not accurate to only average the projected seeds of the teams that get in the tournament. By that logic, Conference USA is the strongest conference because its average projected seed is 2.0 (Memphis).
Eli might say, “Everyone knows that C-USA isn’t the toughest conference because it only has one team in the tournament.” Well, by that logic, the Big 10 is the strongest conference because Lunardi projects that it will get eight tourney bids, one more than the Big East. You can’t have it both ways.
What makes the strongest conference? Is it the quality of the teams at the top? Or is it the strength of the conference from top to bottom. If it’s the former, then the Big East has a great argument. Pitt, UConn and Louisville are legitimate Final Four threats (and are all ranked in the top 5), while the ACC, Big 10 and Big 12 only have one team ranked in the top 7. If you’re going by total conference strength, then it’s hard to beat the Big 10 since it looks like eight of its 11 teams (73%) could get bids. (I know, it’s dumb to have 11 teams in a conference called the Big 10, but that’s another post.) The Big East has 16 teams (a fact glossed over by Big East supporters), so seven bids out of 16 teams (44%) isn’t quite as impressive.
Personally, I go by Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings. The guy knows his stuff, so if he says that the ACC is the strongest conference top-to-bottom, then I believe him. And if he says that the Big 10 is second, then I’ll believe that too.
And as for the “more math” part of Eli’s post, where he says there is a 75% chance that the Big East semifinalists will make up the Final Four, I’d take that bet any day. First, that’s not “math,” that’s a prediction, and an arbitrary one at that. Second, for that prediction to come true, Pitt, UConn, Louisville and a fourth Final Four team (Villanova/Marquette/Syracuse/West Virginia) all have to be in separate regions. It’s likely that Pitt, UConn and Louisville will be split up, but I’d say that the chances of all three making the Final Four (PLUS a fourth Big East team emerging from the fourth region) aren’t quite 75%. Maybe 5%, and that’s being generous.
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s square off tonight in the final of the WCC tourney (9 PM ET, and why isn’t this game on national television?), and with the Gaels’ #45 RPI, they could really use a win to guarantee a NCAA tourney berth. The good news is that their leading scorer, Patrick Mills, is back, scoring 12 points in 35 minutes in yesterday’s win over Portland. If Saint Mary’s loses to the ‘Zags, it would put the Gaels squarely on the bubble. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Saint Mary’s as a #10 seed, but I think that assumes that the committee will take Mills’ injury into account. After all, he was out of the lineup for three of the team’s five losses. Lunardi says that the Gaels are safe, but they don’t have a marquee win and are just 2-2 against the RPI top 50, so anything can happen.
But let’s move on to the “major” conference tournaments that will take place this week. I’m going to tackle these one-by-one in the order of Jeff Sagarin’s conference rankings.
ACC
Lunardi projects six ACC teams – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College – to make the Dance, and of those teams only BC really has anything to worry about. The Eagles (#57 RPI) are probably safe, but a first round loss on Thursday against Virginia might make BC squirm a bit on Selection Sunday.
Miami, Maryland and Virginia Tech are three teams that could play themselves into an NCAA berth with a nice ACC tourney run. What do I mean by “a nice run”? Well, Virginia Tech and Miami square off on Thursday, so if whomever wins gives North Carolina a great game on Friday, that might be enough. The Hurricanes are a bit closer than the Hokies, so VT would probably have to pull the upset against the Tar Heels to earn a bid. Miami could potentially get in with an 18-12 record and a #53 RPI (against the 26th-toughest schedule) if they were to lose to North Carolina.
Meanwhile, Maryland has to beat N.C. State on Thursday and then (at least) pull the upset against the seemingly vulnerable Demon Deacons on Friday.
As far as #1 seeds go, North Carolina pretty much sewed one up with their second win against Duke on Sunday. Neither the Blue Devils nor Demon Deacons would seem to have a shot at one of the other three #1 seeds. It’s conceivable that Duke would be able to make a case if they win the ACC Tournament (beating Wake and UNC in the process) and a few of the teams ranked ahead of them have poor conference showings. Despite the brutal schedule (#3) and stellar RPI (3), Duke is realistically shooting for a #2 or #3 seed.
Pitt swingman Sam Young scored 31 points to lead the Panthers in their second win this season over the Huskies, 70-60. Pitt was in control for much of the game, but UConn trimmed the lead to two (52-50) with 8:26 to play, but after a timeout, Pitt went on a 13-4 run over the next six-plus minutes to put the game away.
According to Jim Lunardi, Pitt was already projected to be a #1 seed, but this win probably clinched it for the Panthers. They have the top RPI and the 13th-toughest schedule. UConn is probably safe as well, but an early exit from the Big East Championship might give the selection committee pause, especially if projected #2 seeds Duke, Louisville, Memphis and/or Michigan State are impressive in their conference tournaments. UConn has the 5th-best RPI, but their 43rd-ranked schedule isn’t much better than Memphis (47th) and doesn’t compare to those aforementioned teams.
Mental note: Don’t question Jim Calhoun about his salary.
I’ve never been a big Jim Calhoun fan, though there is no doubt that he’s a great coach. My problem with him is the faces that he makes on the sideline. Trivial stuff, I know.
It’s funny how his demeanor changes as he realizes that the reporter is seriously questioning his salary. He starts off with a joke — “not a penny back” — and then you can literally see him get angry as the reporter continues.
He has a point. He’s essentially the CEO of the Connecticut basketball program, which has been one of the most successful programs in the country over the years. Yes, the economy is in the crapper and technically he’s a state employee. But to the University of Connecticut, he’s worth every dime.
This is the United States. We don’t begrudge anyone for making a ton of money if they are good at what they do.
