2009 BCS Bowl Projections Version 1.0

SI.com’s Stewart Mandel compiled his projections for all 34 bowl matchups and this is how things shook out in the BCS Bowls:

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon

Is it just me or are those some pretty lousy matchups outside of the BCS title game (Colt McCoy vs. ‘Bama’s defense is intriguing, I don’t care what anyone says)? I’m not saying that those teams aren’t deserving of those bowls, but I’m not entirely sure I’d like to see Iowa play Boise in one of the “big” bowls.

That said, a Georgia Tech-TCU matchup would be intriguing because I would love to see the Horned Frogs try and defense the Jackets’ potent triple-option. TCU has one of the fastest and most aggressive defenses in the nation and it would be a thrill to watch them try and contain Jonathan Dwyer for four quarters.

Something tells me an Ohio State-Oregon matchup wouldn’t be that bad either outside of the fact that the Buckeyes always lay duds in bowl games. OSU has a solid defense, although Jeremiah Masoli and company might tear them to pieces.

Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from Mandel’s projections (outside of the fact that he has ‘Bama beating Florida in the SEC Championship Game, that is) is that he predicts Pittsburgh to beat Cincinnati in two weeks. The Bearcats can light up a scoreboard, but teams that can run straight at their defense have had success and the Panthers might be able to do that when the two teams square off next Saturday for the top spot in the Big East.’

For those of you who are like me that would rather see a playoff system determine the champion in college football, check out John Paulsen’s breakdown of how a postseason would look like this season.


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Texas’ McCoy ties NCAA record for wins

Thanks to the Longhorns’ 47-14 rout of Baylor on Saturday, Texas signal caller Colt McCoy tied David Greene for most all-time wins by a starting quarterback in NCAA history.

McCoy (23 of 34, 181 yards, 2 TDs) didn’t tear up the stat sheet – not that he had to. The Longhorns gained 224 yards on the ground and held Baylor to only six total rushing yards. The Bears averaged just 0.2 yards per carry and remain one of five Big 12 opponents to have never beaten a Mack Brown-coached Texas team.

Regardless of whether or not you think McCoy is a pro prospect (most don’t), it’s hard to deny how good of a college player he has been in his career. He has been a perfect fit for UT’s offense and continues to be one of the more accurate passers in college football.

McCoy and Texas can now sit back and wait to see if either South Carolina can upset Florida or if Mississippi State can beat Alabama. A win by the Gators and Crimson Tide would more than likely result in the Longhorns staying at No. 3 in the BCS standings.


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Bradford hurt again as Texas knocks off Oklahoma

The unexpected happened today in Dallas. What was supposed to be a grudge match between quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford was anything but after Bradford was knocked out of the game in the first quarter. And what was supposed to be an offensive slug fest actually turned out to be a defensive struggle.

Some may say it wasn’t pretty, but Texas earned a hard-fought 16-13 victory over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday. Bradford only attempted six passes in the game, completing two for 77 yards before suffering another injury following a first-quarter sack. On the other side, McCoy was just 12 of 39 passing for 127 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

This game turned on the first possession of the second half. After Oklahoma took a 6-3 lead into halftime, the Longhorns came out in the third quarter utilizing a hurry-up offense that allowed McCoy to finally get into a rhythm passing. While the drive only produced a field goal, it instilled confidence in McCoy after the Sooners had frustrated him in the first half. This was the second straight year in which OU’s defense got the best of McCoy.

Freshman receiver Marquis Goodwin also played a huge role in the Longhorns’ victory. Oklahoma completely took emerging Heisman candidate Jordan Shipley out of the game by blanketing him in coverage, but Goodwin hauled in three passes and caught a 14-yard touchdown pass from McCoy midway through the third quarter to give Texas its first lead. With Shipley held in check, Goodwin came up huge.

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2009 College Football Picks & Predictions Week 7

No. 20 Oklahoma at No. 3 Texas, 12:00PM ET
It’s kind of a shame that this game is on at Noon on Saturday because it deserves primetime attention. Texas upset top ranked Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry last year, but it’ll be hard for the Sooners to return the favor this season. Sam Bradford’s receivers didn’t help him in his return to action last week, dropping at least 10 passes. A fierce Texas pass rush could overwhelm Oklahoma’s inexperienced offensive line and force Bradford to unload the ball sooner than he wants to. Given how the Sooners’ front seven frustrated him last year, Colt McCoy could struggle as well, but I like the home team to win in what should be an emotional game.
Odds: Texas –3.
Prediction: Texas 33, Oklahoma 27.

No. 22 South Carolina at No. 2 Alabama, 7:45PM ET
Although the Gamecocks pose a threat with their defensive front seven, the Crimson Tide are the most complete team in the nation and should wear South Carolina down in the second half. The Gamecocks simply don’t have the horses up front to move ‘Bama’s front four at the point of attack and if South Carolina can’t stay balanced offensively, Stephen Garcia will struggle. It’s going to be hard for SC to move the ball on the ground against a talented Alabama linebacker corps and therefore Garcia should face plenty of third-and-longs. Some believe the Gamecocks will keep this one close, but after struggling at home last week against Kentucky, I see South Carolina getting rolled this weekend in a tough environment.
Odds: Alabama –17.
Prediction: Alabama 35, South Carolina 14.

No. 11 Iowa at Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
The point spread in this game doesn’t make any sense. Why is a ranked Iowa team a 2.5-point underdog on the road against an unranked Wisconsin team that they’ve beaten in five of their last seven meetings? The Badgers’ best attribute is that they can run the ball (they’re gaining just over 200 yards per game on the ground), but the Hawkeyes are solid defensively, ranking 31 in the nation in total defense. So what gives? Simply put, Iowa has not looked great this season despite being undefeated. They will enter a hostile Camp Randall Stadium and could have trouble moving the ball offensively against a Wisconsin defense that swarms to the football. After being unable to get on track last Saturday against Ohio State, running backs John Clay and Zach Brown should carry the Badgers this week to an upset win. (If you can even all it an upset given that Wisconsin is favored.)
Odds: Wisconsin –2.5.
Prediction: Wisconsin 28, Iowa 24.

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McCoy vs. Bradford: Who will be the better pro?

With Oklahoma set to square off against Texas in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday night, I thought it would be fun to breakdown the quarterback matchup between the Sooners’ Sam Bradford and the Longhorns’ Colt McCoy to figure out who would make the better pro.

Colt McCoy vs. Sam Bradford: Who will be the better pro quarterback?

Arm Strength: Bradford.
Neither quarterback has elite arm strength, but Bradford can make all the throws, while McCoy excels at the short to intermediate passes. Lack of arm strength could be an issue for McCoy at the next level.

Size: Bradford.
Bradford is two inches taller than McCoy and nearly 15 pounds heavier. Bradford can probably add to his frame, where McCoy is essentially maxed out.

Accuracy & Decision Making: Push.
Both QBs have outstanding accuracy, get the ball out of their hands quickly and are excellent decision-makers.

Leadership: Push.
Bradford and McCoy’s leadership have been evident in how good their teams have been with them under center. Both players truly love playing the game and it shows both on and off the field.

Athleticism: McCoy.
Although Bradford does have decent athleticism, he loses this category by a long shot. McCoy has displayed excellent athleticism in his career while rushing for over 500 yards in each of his past two seasons. He’s also very mobile, which helps him elude pressure and buy extra time to find receivers.

Release: Bradford.
Bradford has a great release, but we’re probably splitting hairs in this category because both quarterbacks get the ball out of their hands quickly.

The Final Whistle:
Both of these quarterbacks have weaknesses in that neither runs a pro-style offense in college. So on most occasions, neither is forced to make difficult reads and neither has faced a consistent pass rush. They both benefit from playing in a conference with weak defenses and have out-of-this-world stats because of it. That said, Bradford has fewer question marks surrounding his pro potential than McCoy does. McCoy has never operated under center and that could be a huge problem once he gets to the next level. While Bradford doesn’t have the arm strength to zip the ball into tight windows, he can make all the throws at the next level. The same cannot be said for McCoy, who will struggle with the deep ball in the NFL.

In the end, the question of which quarterback will make a better pro comes down to what offenses they’re drafted into. If a team figures out how to use McCoy’s athleticism and accuracy to hide his lack of arm strength, then he could become an outstanding pro. But Bradford has more intangibles that pro scouts look for and thus, would be my choice to emerge as the better NFL quarterback.

Winner: Sam Bradford.

Which quarterback will make the better pro?
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Texas exacts revenge on Tech

Texas has been waiting almost a year to get the taste of losing to Texas Tech out of its mouth and it did just that on Saturday night as the Longhorns defeated the Red Raiders 34-24.

This wasn’t a very clean game by the No. 2 team in the nation, as Heisman candidate Colt McCoy threw two interceptions and the Texas defense was shredded by Tech quarterback Taylor Potts, who passed for 420 yards and three touchdowns. But the Longhorns did just enough to stay ahead of the Raiders for the entire game and managed to exact revenge on their in-state rivals.

The Longhorn defense also did a nice job giving Potts multiple looks in order to confuse him on several series throughout the game. Texas was also incredibly aggressive, although that allowed Potts to complete some crossing routes that helped moved the chains.

Offensively for the Longhorns, receiver Jordan Shipley had big night, hauling in 11 passes for 75 yards and returning a punt 38 yards for a touchdown to give Texas its first score. The Longhorn offense essentially took what Tech gave them and didn’t try to force the action outside of when McCoy found Dan Buckner down the seams for a 25-yard completion that set up a Cody Johnson 1-yard touchdown run.

Considering Texas was an 18.5-point favorite coming into this game, one would have thought that the Longhorns would take it to Tech more than they did. But on a day where Florida only beat Lane Kiffin’s Volunteers by 10 points and USC lost to Washington, I guess Texas’s sound, yet rather unsatisfying 10-point win over Tech is pretty much par for the course.

Mack Brown’s program will host UTEP and Colorado over its next two games before its big matchup with Oklahoma on October 17.

College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 3

Tennessee (1-1) at No. 1 Florida (2-0), 3:30PM ET
Don’t think for a second that Urban Meyer won’t be extra motivated for this game after Lane Kiffin accused him of violating NCAA recruiting rules back in February. Kiffin better hope that his power running game will help keep this one close, because Florida’s defense is going to terrorize quarterback Jonathan Crompton if Tennessee becomes too one-dimensional. Crompton made several poor decisions last week in UT’s loss to UCLA, a game in which he threw three interceptions. If he turns the ball over against the Gators, this game will be out of reach by halftime. Of course, if Monte Kiffin’s defense can generate some pressure on Tim Tebow, the Vols could make things interesting. But so far, Kiffin hasn’t gotten much production out of his front four and it has forced him to blitz in order to get pressure. Tebow will recognize that and pick UT’s defense apart. This one could get ugly.
Odds: Florida -30
Prediction: Florida 41, Tennessee 10.

Texas Tech (2-0) at No. 2 Texas (2-0), 8:00PM ET
Mack Brown still has nightmares of Michael Crabtree scoring the winning touchdown in last year’s thriller in Lubbock. But Crabtree and Graham Harrell have both moved on and although Raiders quarterback Taylor Potts (861 yards, 9 TDs) is off to a great start this year, it’s hard to imagine that Tech will pull off the upset this year. Colt McCoy won’t allow Texas to lose at home and the Longhorn back seven is too good to let Potts to beat them for four quarters.
Odds: Texas -17.5
Prediction: Texas 52, Texas Tech 28.

No. 23 Georgia at Arkansas, 7:45PM ET
The last time these two teams met was back in October of 2005 when the Dawgs barely edged the Razorbacks 23-20 in Athens. Bobby Petrino’s team is fresh coming off a bye week (which followed an easy 48-10 victory over FCS foe Missouri State), while Georgia fought tooth and nail for their 41-37 win over South Carolina. Petrino admitted that the Razorbacks have been game planning for this matchup since August and he even held senior Michael Smith to only four carries in the win over Missouri State so that the running back would be fresh for this week’s matchup vs. UGA. The Dawgs have given up 61 points in their first two outings and considering Arkansas’s offense is starting to come together under Petrino, I see the Razorbacks securing a nice home win.
Odds: Arkansas -1
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Georgia 28.

West Virginia at Auburn, 7:45PM ET
The Tigers will be seeking a measure of revenge after the Mountaineers soundly beat them in Morgantown last year. Although both teams have started off the season on the right foot, West Virginia could have a hard time corralling Auburn running backs Brandon Tate and Onterio McCalebb. The duo has combined to rush for over 530 yards in two games and will provide a challenge that the Mountaineers’ run-defense didn’t receive in their first two games. As long as the Auburn defense can contain Noel Devine and senior quarterback Jarrett Brown, they should be able to get their revenge on West Virginia and start the ’09 season 3-0.
Odds: Auburn -7
Prediction: Auburn 38, West Virginia 24.

2009 CFB Preview: Texas Longhorns

Check out our other 2009 college football previews.

Preseason Ranking: No. 2 in AP Top 25; No. 2 in USA Today Poll.

Key Returning Players: Colt McCoy (QB); Jordan Shipley (WR); Brandon Collins (WR); Vondrell McGee (RB); Adam Ulatoski (OT); Roddrick Muckelroy (LB); Sergio Kindle (LB); Jared Norton (LB); Earl Thomas (S); Deon Beasley (CB); Curtis Brown (CB); Cody Johnson.

Key Losses: Brian Orakpo (DE); Rashad Bobino (LB); Henry Melton (DE); Roy Miller (DT); Ryan Palmer (CB); Quan Cosby (WR); Cedric Dockery (G); Chris Ogbonnaya (RB).

Player to Watch: Colt McCoy, QB.
Who else? After completing 76.7 percent of his passes, throwing for 3,859 yards, rushing for 561 yards and totaling 45 touchdowns (34 passing, 11 rushing) in 2008, is there anything McCoy can’t do? He could usher people to his seats before the game and sell concessions at halftime and still compile 400 total yards and five touchdowns. McCoy is once again a legitimate Heisman candidate and only has one mission after deciding to return for his senior year: Win a national championship.

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Top 10 Heisman Hopefuls Version 1.0

Every couple of weeks during the 2009 season, I’ll rank the top 10 Heisman Trophy candidates based on their chances of winning college football’s most prestigious award. Players will either rise or fall in the rankings based on their performances throughout the year.

Below is Version 1.0. Obviously with no games being played yet, I’m mostly projecting with this top 10. These types of rankings always stir up a lot of debate, so I encourage readers to tell me which players should be rated higher or lower. I’ll update the list after the first week or two of the season.

Without further ado…

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
After Sam Bradford edged Tebow out in last season’s Heisman race, some will argue that the Oklahoma QB deserves to be at the top of this ranking. But I’m giving the slight edge to Tebow right now after he absolutely destroyed the competition in the second half of last year. Florida will incorporate the no-huddle into their offense this season, which should only benefit Tebow’s style of play and give him even more scoring opportunities than he already had. Outside of Florida having to replace tackles Phil Trautwein and Jason Watkins, there’s little reason to believe that Tebow will take a step back in 2009 and considering the Gators are once again national title contenders, he should be the front-runner to win this year’s Heisman.

2. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
After throwing for 4,720 yards and 50 touchdowns last season, I don’t doubt that the reigning Heisman winner could be even better in 2009. But the Sooners’ offensive line is a major question mark entering this season with the losses of Phil Loadholt, Duke Robinson, Jon Cooper and Brandon Walker. That’s a lot of change in one offseason and while OU should light up the scoreboard once again, I could see Bradford taking a backseat to Tebow when the final Heisman results are tallied.

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USA Today Preseason Polls: Florida No. 1

The USA Today Coaches’ Top 25 college football coaches’ poll has been released and to no surprise, Florida ranks No. 1.

Here’s the top 15 (via ESPN.com):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. USC
5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. Virginia Tech
8. Penn State
9. LSU
10. Mississippi
11. Oklahoma State
12. California
13. Georgia
14. Oregon
15. Georgia Tech

The most intriguing team to watch this year in the top 15 is Ole’ Miss. The have a solid quarterback in Jevan Snead a true playmaker in Dexter McCluster, a couple of quality receivers and several capable rushers. But the one thing that could keep the Rebels from taking that next step is the play of the offensive and defensive lines. They lost two significant pieces of both lines last year when Michael Oher and Peria Jerry were drafted into the NFL. Can they replace both of those players and make some noise in the SEC?

Another team to at least keep an eye on this year is North Carolina, who is ranked 20 in the preseason poll. They lost receivers Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate to the NFL, but their offense is still chockfull of potential and their defense was incredibly opportunistic last year. I’m not saying the Heels will challenge for a national title this season, but they’ll be competitive.

The Heisman race is going to be fun to watch all year, too. Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy and Terrelle Pryor hold the edge going into the season, but watch out for sleepers like Evan Royster, Jonathan Dwyer and Jahvid Best.

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