My season record stayed status quo after finishing 2-2 last week. Alabama and Texas Tech (which won outright against Oklahoma) covered but neither Arkansas nor Boise State mustered enough points against Ole Miss and Air Force, respectively. In fact, Arkansas nearly lost outright and Air Force kept things relatively close all game against the Broncos.

My season record is now 19-11-2 and I keep rotating between feeling confident and scared out of my mind with my picks this week.

Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 3:30PM ET
One of two things is going to happen today. Either the Sooners are going to come out pissed off about their loss last week to Tech and absolutely crush the Wildcats or they’re going to come out flat and potentially lose outright. What I don’t like about that scenario is the unknown. We know what we’re getting out of K-State: A solid football team with a dual threat quarterback that has been disrespected by oddsmakers all season. I think the spread should be closer to 10 instead of nearly two touchdowns. I get that oddsmakers are trying to protect themselves from a potential OU rout, but I still like Bill Snyder’s team today at home.
THE PICK: KANSAS STATE +13.5

Baylor @ Oklahoma State, 3:30PM ET
It’s funny, the Cowboys keep rolling but the lines in their games always seem pretty reasonable for a team that’s 7-0 and 6-1 against the spread this season. It appears as though the sharp bettors keep going against them and it’s keeping the spreads low. I realize that Baylor can score on anyone and OK State’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. But the Bears’ D isn’t anything to right home about either and if it’s going to be a shootout, I like Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon on their home turf, especially with Baylor coming off a humbling 55-28 loss to Texas A&M.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -14

Colorado @ Arizona State, 6:30PM ET
I thought the Buffaloes were going to keep things close at home against a banged up Oregon team. Instead, Colorado was crushed 45-2 in one of the more pathetic showings of any college team this year. With quarterback Tyler Hansen (concussion) not expected to play and redshirt freshman Nick Hirschman under center, I like ASU to roll. The Sun Devils haven’t exactly been lighting the stat sheet up but Colorado has been outscored by an average of 26.5 points in its four road losses this season. Brock Osweiler should have himself a big night.
THE PICK: ARIZONA STATE -31

Clemson @ Georgia Tech, 8:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Clemson to implode and all they keep doing is winning. BIG. I was among the contingent that believed the Tigers would fall apart at some point but looking at their upcoming schedule they have a great opportunity to finish the season undefeated if they can play well on the road. Today marks the first of three road games that Clemson has left on its schedule. A trip to Atlanta to play Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets is never easy, but Georgia Tech has issues. Quarterback Tevin Washington has thrown four interceptions over the last three games, starting center Jay Finch is out with an injured leg and opponents have started to exploit Johnson’s run-happy offense. I have no qualms about laying the points with Clemson. I just hope the hook doesn’t burn me.
THE PICK: CLEMSON TIGERS –3.5

Last Week: 2-2
Season Record: 19-11-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

I hung onto my winning record in college football with another .500 effort in Week 8. Utah and UAB hit, but North Carolina never showed up in Miami and I fell into the trap that was Oklahoma at Missouri.

That 4-0 weekend continues to elude me…for now.

No. 5 Michigan State @ No. 18 Iowa, 3:30PM ET
This game and the one I picked below it have trap written all over them, but I have a rule about not picking against underdogs in the top-10. Teams that have climbed into the top-10 got there for a reason and Michigan State is no different. While they very easily could have lost in Northwestern last week, the Spartans are on a mission and they know that if they beat Iowa on Saturday, they have a clear path to a Big Ten title. MSU has a reputation of slipping up every season, but this Spartans team has a different feel to it. Thanks to Edwin Baker, Sparty has the 28th ranked rushing offense in the nation and are 22nd in scoring. They face a stiff test this weekend going up against the No. 8 run defense in the country, but this one will be close. I’m taking the points with MSU.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +6.5

No. 6 Missouri @ No. 14 Nebraska, 3:30PM
See above. Ever since I watched San Diego State nearly beat the Tigers in Missouri roughly a month ago, I haven’t been a backer of MIZZOU. Yet they keep on winning. Beating Oklahoma was a huge accomplishment and lucky for them, they have no time to celebrate with a trip to Lincoln coming up this Saturday. Nebraska’s defense shouldn’t have as much trouble with Missouri as it did last weekend against Oklahoma State, but they’ll still be challenged by the 16th-best passing offense in the nation. Again, I don’t make it a habit to pick against teams in the top-10 and while I fully admit I may be falling into a second trap (along with Michigan State), I like MIZZOU to cover.
THE PICK: MISSOURI +7.5

No. 2 Oregon @ USC, 8:00PM ET
The idea of backing USC’s defense when it has the task of trying to slow Oregon’s explosive offensive attack makes me want to puke. But the Ducks embarrassed the Trojans last year in Eugene and now USC has a chance to return the favor. The Ducks are averaging 44.3 points per game on the road this year, which is still a lot, but not compared to the 55.1 PPG they’re averaging at home. They’re also allowing almost a touchdown more per game on the road than they are in Eugene and this USC team can score thanks to QB Matt Barkley. Oregon is just 2-5 against the number in its last seven meetings with USC and while I don’t think the Trojans win outright, I like them getting points at home in prime time.
THE PICK: USC +6.5

No. 17 Oklahoma State @ Kansas State, 12:00PM ET
I’ll be honest, this pick was made for me the moment head coach Mike Gundy suspended receiver Justin Blackmon after the receiver was arrested on a DUI earlier this week in Dallas. Blackmon leads the nation in touchdowns and could have done some serious damage against a slow K-State defense. But you take him out of the equation and while the Cowboys’ offense is still chockfull of playmakers, I like the Wildcats’ chances of keeping things close. But they need to keep the ball on the ground with Daniel Thomas (the Big 12’s leading rusher) and keep Brandon Weeden off the field in order to have a chance. I think we see a much slower pace to OK State’s offense this weekend and K-State squeaks out a cover.
THE PICK: KANSAS STATE +5

Season Record: 13-11

No. 5 USC at No. 10 Oregon, 8:00PM ET ABC
The game of the week is in Eugene this Saturday, as the Ducks host the Trojans in a battle for Pac-10 supremacy. The last time the Trojans traveled to Eugene, they were beaten 24-17 and if they don’t want to suffer defeat again this year, they better sure up their defense. Oregon ranks 14th in the nation in rushing and could take advantage of an aggressive USC front four that doesn’t always play disciplined. Running back LaMichael James has enough burst to bounce runs outside if the Trojans’ defensive ends are too quick to crash inside in efforts to take away runs between the tackles. On the flip side, Oregon’s O-line must protect quarterback Jeremiah Masoli better or else the Ducks’ passing game could be non-existent. Although the Trojans’ offense is starting to take shape under freshman Matt Barkley, Oregon has the sixth best pass efficiency defense in the country and are holding opponents to less than 17 points a game. I like the home team getting points in this matchup and am calling the outright upset.
Odds: USC –3.5.
Prediction: Oregon 27, USC 24.

No. 3 Texas at No. 14 Oklahoma State, 8:00PM ET
When I first looked at the point spread for this game, I was surprised to see that a good Oklahoma State team was getting nine points at home. But history doesn’t favor the Cowboys in this matchup and the Longhorns definitely have the overall edge. Although OK State has had its opportunities over the years, Texas has won the last 11 games in this matchup and Colt McCoy has owned the Cowboy defense. He has completed 79.4 percent of his passes for 1,019 yards and is 3-0 lifetime against OK State, including owning a 38-35 win in Stillwater in 2007. The Cowboys have won five straight, but they’ve feasted on teams like Rice, Grambling State, Baylor and inconsistent squads like Texas A&M and Missouri. This is a game that should be close throughout, but I actually like Texas to earn a sound victory. No. 2 Alabama is idle this week and the Longhorns will take this opportunity to thump a quality opponent in order to prove to the voters that they deserved to be ranked higher.
Odds: Texas –9.
Prediction: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 20.

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