If you can’t trust a Vandal, whom can you trust?

Idaho cost me an opportunity for back-to-back 4-0 Saturdays by failing to score at the goal line in the closing seconds against New Mexico State. A touchdown and PAT would have sent the game into overtime while giving the Vandals (+1) a chance to cover. But realizing that if they won I would be 8-0 in the last two weeks, Idaho threw the game, stalled out on fourth down and handed me a 3-1 record. The nerve!

Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State (thanks to Steve Spurrier, who took a safety to run the clock out last week, allowing the 3-point underdog Bulldog team to cover) were winners last week, while Idaho was my lone loser. That runs my season record to 17-9-2.

Arkansas @ Mississippi, 12:20PM ET
Houston Nutt’s football team has issues. Ole Miss ranks 11th in the SEC in total offense and 12th in total defense, which isn’t a good sign with Arkansas coming to town. Razorbacks’ quarterback Tyler Wilson ranks second in the SEC in passing efficiently and total offense, leading a passing attack that averages 336.8 yards through the air. Wilson has too many weapons to use against an overmatched Rebels defense. Arkansas is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games against Ole Miss, which is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS –15.5

Air Force @ Boise State, 3:30PM ET
This one could be a bloodbath if Boise State doesn’t get in its own way. The Falcons lead the Mountain West in total offense and rushing offense, but their defense will have a tough time slowing Kellen Moore, who has now thrown for 120 career touchdown passes. Boise State has won its last two games by a combined 100 points, which is the exact number Air Force has allowed over its last two outings. I just don’t think the Falcons can keep pace if the Broncos start to roll.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE –29.5

Tennessee @ Alabama, 7:15PM ET
With LSU coming up next Saturday, this could very well be a trap game for Alabama, although either way Tennessee still has to figure out a way to score without Tyler Bray under center. Matt Simms was a small disaster last week at home against LSU while completing just six passes and throwing two interceptions. Thus, how well do you think he’ll fare this Saturday on the road in Tuscaloosa? Even if Trent Richardson and the ‘Bama offense doesn’t get rolling until the second half, I don’t envision Simms figuring out Tide’s stingy defense.
THE PICK: ALABAMA –30

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma, 8:00PM ET
I realize the Red Raiders lost their last two games but they also played Texas A&M and Kansas State – two top 20 teams. For Oklahoma to be giving up four touchdowns after the way it played last Saturday in Kansas (a rather sloppy performance despite the 47-17 score) is a little surprising. True, Tech’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed right now. But led by Seth Doege, their offense usually hangs with opponents. If the Sooners have as much trouble in the red zone on Saturday as they did last weekend in Kansas, I like Tech to cover.
THE PICK: TEXAS TECH +28.5

Last Week: 3-1
Season Record: 17-9-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

No. 1 Florida at Mississippi State, 7:30PM ET
After a hard-fought win over LSU two weeks ago and a gift-wrapped (courtesy of the officials) victory over Arkansas last week, Florida will try to remain undefeated against a Mississippi State team that has had the Gators’ number in Starkville. Florida has dropped their last four games in Starkville and hasn’t won there since 1985. The Gators are too good defensively for the Bulldogs to pull off an upset, but with Florida’s lack of offensive firepower, Mississippi State will keep this game close until the end. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen is a former offensive coordinator at Florida, so his knowledge of the Gators’ program will aid him on Saturday but in the end, Mississippi State doesn’t have enough depth to beat Florida this season. Tim Tebow and company haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, so I like the Bulldogs to cover.
Odds: Florida –22.5
Prediction: Florida 27, Mississippi State 13.

No. 13 Penn State at Michigan, 3:30PM ET
The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Ann Arbor since 1996, which is why the point spread is so low in this matchup. But Penn State has won three straight by a combined score of 107-20 since their home loss to Iowa and they’ll be looking for a measure of revenge against a Michigan team that has had their number on the road. The Wolverines are too inconsistent on offense to hang with the Lions for four quarters, especially if they have trouble running the ball against PSU’s solid front seven. Offensively for the Nittany Lions, Evan Royster and Darryl Clark will keep the chains moving against a Michigan defense that has trouble getting off the field on third down. This won’t be a blow out because it’s in Ann Arbor, but Penn State will continue its winning ways.
Odds: Penn State –4.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Michigan 13.

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