Last week was the first time I posted predictions for the new college football season and after going 3-1, I’m fired up for a reversal of fortune this Saturday. (The college football prediction gods can be a very fickle bunch, not unlike their cousins, the NFL prediction gods.)

Ohio State, Alabama and Arizona State were winners in Week 3, while Texas Tech was my only loser. Here are my predictions for Week 4.

No. 1 Alabama –7 vs. No. 10 Arkansas, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
This game makes my head hurt. I can absolutely see a good Razorback team staying with the Tide for four quarters before finally succumbing to defeat and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Arkansas pulled off the upset entirely. But now that Alabama is back at full strength with Mark Ingram’s return, something tells me Nick Saban’s squad flexes its muscles this weekend. ‘Bama held quarterback Ryan Mallett to only 160 passing yards last year and intercepted him once. Mallett is a better quarterback then he was in September of last year (where the Tide cruised to a 35-7 victory), but ‘Bama has the second best pass defense in the country and I think the Razorback QB is going to have a tough go of things again this year.
THE PICK: ALABAMA -7

Temple +13.5 at No. 23 Penn State, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
No longer are the Owls just a patsy for the Nittany Lions, who have often scheduled Temple early in the year as a tune up game. Temple is 3-0 and coming off a two-touchdown win over a Connecticut team that people had high hopes for entering the year. Penn State routed Kent State 24-0, but are just two weeks removed from a brutal effort against Alabama. Freshman quarterback Robert Bolden is still trying to find his way and has turned the ball over at least once in each of his first three games. The Lions haven’t lost to Temple since 1941, but I think this game will be closer than people expect.
THE PICK: TEMPLE +13.5

No. 12 South Carolina +3 at No. 17 Auburn, Saturday, 7:45PM ET
With this game being played in Auburn, the line is set right. But I still feel as though South Carolina isn’t getting the respect it deserves. The Gamecocks routed a better-than-average Southern Miss team on opening night, then dominated Georgia 17-6 before waxing Furman, 38-19. Auburn, meanwhile, took it to Arkansas State in the first weekend, barely edged college football’s equivalent of the Seattle Mariners (Mississippi State) in Week 2 and then had to come from behind to top Clemson last week. Thanks to Cameron Newton, Onterio McCalebb and Michael Dyer, the Tigers can run the football but South Carolina has the sixth-best run defense in the nation and I see them containing the Tigers’ offensive attack. Again, the line is set right but I like the Gamecocks.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA +3

No. 22 West Virginia at No. 15 LSU -10, Saturday, 9:00PM ET
The Tigers are a very quiet 3-0 right now. After nearly blowing a win against North Carolina in the opening week, their defense has looked solid the past two Saturdays in wins over Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. The Tigers have won 28 consecutive home games against non-conference foes, although they have lost their past three home games against top 25 opponents. Still, West Virginia has had issues with turnovers the past three weeks and needed overtime to beat Marshall two weeks ago. Noel Devine will have a tough time finding room against the 16th-best run defense in the nation and Jordan Jefferson should have no problem moving the ball through the air against the Mountaineers’ suspect secondary.
THE PICK: LSU –10

Season Record: 3-1

Here are my picks for Week 4 in college football.

Last week I went 3-1 straight up and just 1-3 against the spread, so gamblers – fade at will. (By the way, those are also my season totals because I didn’t make picks for the first two weeks, although I probably would have gone 8-0 so feel free to give me the undeserved credit.)

Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
Arkansas certainly has an offense capable of hanging with most opponents given the vertical weapons they have in Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams in the passing game. But ‘Bama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart should throw a variety of looks at Razorback signal caller Ryan Mallett and use blitzes to help generate a rush. The Tide lack a pass-rushing presence on their defensive line, but their secondary is experienced and should handle whatever Bobby Petrino throws at them on Saturday. I expect ‘Bama to take away Michael Smith, Broderick Green, Ronnie Wingo and the Arkansas’ running game and force the Razorbacks to become one-dimensional. With Julio Jones expected back this week after missing last Saturday with a knee injury, the Razorback defense could be in trouble. ‘Bama will look to take control of this game in the second half with a balanced offensive approach and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Odds: Alabama –17.5.
Prediction: Alabama 41, Arkansas 20.

No. 9 Miami at No. 11 Virginia Tech, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
The Canes are quickly becoming one of the more talked about programs in the nation this year courtesy of quarterback Jacory Harris. Thanks to an improved pass protection and his ability to see the entire field, Harris played exceptionally well in Miami’s wins over ranked opponents Florida State and Georgia Tech, respectively. But the key to a Canes’ victory will be running the ball to set up Harris and the passing game. Frank Beamer’s squad has not done a good job of stopping the run so far this season and if Miami can get versatile running backs Javarris James and Graig Cooper some running room early on, they might set up Harris to make big plays in the passing game. Defensively, Miami could be burned by Tyrod Taylor’s running ability if it doesn’t stay disciplined when shooting gaps. Taylor, who has been more patient as a passer this season, needs to use his legs if he sees that the Canes are too aggressive up front. Miami must also contain running back Ryan Williams, who has been excellent filling in for the injured Darren Evans. While Blacksburg is one of the toughest places to play in college football, Randy Shannon has his team playing with a swagger and they won’t be intimated on the road. This is going to be a thrilling game and one that might come down to the wire. I’m going with the hot team, however, and predict a win for Miami.
Odds: Miami –2.5.
Prediction: Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20.

No. 1 Florida at Kentucky, Saturday, 6:00PM ET
The Gators will make their first road trip of the year this week when they head to Lexington to take on a Wildcats team that has a lot of confidence right now after beating Louisville in a thriller last Saturday. While Florida soundly beat Tennessee 23-13 last week in the swamp, the Gators were severely lacking the big play as Monte Kiffin’s defense kept them in check for most of the day. (Of course, Tim Tebow’s two turnovers also helped the Vols keep things close.) Both teams in this matchup can run the ball (Florida is 2nd in the nation in rushing yards per game at 289.3, while Kentucky is 25th at 206.5), although this game will come down to whether or not Wildcats quarterback Mike Hartline can make enough plays in the passing game. Florida has beaten Kentucky 22 straight times, but up to six Gators missed practice this week while battling the flu so a trip to Lexington could be a more daunting task than what Urban Meyer’s team is used to. Florida wins, but Kentucky covers.
Odds: Florida –21.5.
Prediction: Florida 27, Kentucky 13.

Michigan State at Wisconsin, Saturday, 12:00PM ET
Despite being 1-2, Michigan State has played well enough this season to be undefeated. But a lack of focus at the end of the fourth quarter cost the Spartans a win at home against Central Michigan in Week 2 and quarterback Kirk Cousins missed a wide open Larry Caper in the end zone last week in a loss to Notre Dame. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is 3-0 but it hasn’t been a pretty 3-0 outside of their 44-14 stomping of non-conference cupcake Wofford last week. The Badgers had to stave off a late come back by Northern Illinois in their opener and also needed a field goal in double over time to beat Fresno. The Spartans will offer the Badgers their toughest challenge to date and I’m predicting a small upset for MSU in both teams’ Big Ten opener.
Odds: Michigan State +3.
Prediction: Michigan State 33, Wisconsin 30.