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Fade Material: College Football Week 3 Predictions

Ohio State head coach Luke Fickell (C) runs onto the field prior to their NCAA football game against the University of Akron in Columbus, Ohio September 3, 2011. REUTERS/Matt Sullivan (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Well, go figure. I change the name of this column to “Fade Material” and then I start handing out winning picks. If I knew that was all I had to do, I would have changed the title years ago and avoided all the years of .500 or below predictions.

After a 3-1 performance in Week 1, I finished 3-0-1 with my Week 2 picks. Georgia was a push against South Carolina but TCU, Alabama and BYU had no problems covering. I’m still looking for my first sweep of the season, so let’s see if we can’t nail it this week. (Although I admit to having reservations about “Road Test Weekend.” There are some tough games on the board…)

Auburn @ Clemson, 12:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Auburn to lose and all they’ve done the past two weeks is pull wins out of their backsides. The No. 19 Tigers find themselves once again as underdogs, this time against an unranked Clemson team. Nobody can ever quite figure out Clemson, which either plays the game of its life or sinks to the level of its competition. They’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the SEC, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Auburn is also 6-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games an underdog. I think the Tigers of Auburn keeps this within a field goal, making that 3.5-point spread highly attractive.
THE PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +3.5

Ohio State @ Miami, 7:30PM ET
The Buckeyes face their first road test under new head coach Luke Fickell and while they didn’t look particularly sharp against Toledo last week at home, I like OSU to win outright tonight. They’ll face a quarterback in Jacory Harris, who is coming off a one-game suspension and who was unimpressive against Oho State last year. He threw four interceptions, including three in the first half alone. Granted, that was a different Buckeyes team last season but the defense is still solid and I expect them to give Harris trouble again this time around. The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the number in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games in September since 1992.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +2.5

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Ohio State loses starting left tackle for 3-4 weeks

Ohio State will be without their most experienced offensive linemen for the next three to four weeks as starting left tackle Jim Cordle nurses an ankle injury.

From SI.com:

Coach Jim Tressel disclosed the injury on Thursday. He said Cordle, a fifth-year senior who has started the last three seasons, had complained of pain in his ankle and it got steadily worse. Tests on Wednesday showed the severity of the injury. Tressel was unsure if Cordle was injured in the Buckeyes’ 18-15 loss to No. 3 Southern California on Saturday night.

In his place in Saturday’s game against Toledo, the Buckeyes would most likely play J.B. Shugarts or Mike Adams, or could move others around on the front wall.

Considering Cordle was in a walking boot on Sunday, this news isn’t surprising. Sophomore J.B. Shugarts has gotten most of the reps this week, although Mike Adams could see some time at left tackle too.

Over the span that Cordle is expected to be out, the Buckeyes will face Toledo, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. Outside of maybe the Illini, none of those four teams have a solid pass rush, but it’ll still be interesting to see whether or not OSU’s running game will struggle without Cordle.

At least the Buckeyes can build some experienced depth behind Cordle while he’s out.

Week 3 College Football Primer

Time to check out the big games, top matchups and potential upsets as college football heads into Week 3.

Mark SanchezTop 25 Action:
No. 5 Ohio State (2-0) at No. 1 USC (1-0), Saturday 8:00 PM ET ABC
OSU head coach Jim Tressel said Tuesday that Heisman candidate Beanie Wells will play Saturday in Southern Cal. The Buckeyes are going to need all the offensive firepower they can get against one of the best front sevens in the nation. USC quarterback Mark Sanchez shredded Virginia for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1, but OSU’s defense is loaded with experienced talent. This is one of the most anticipated college football games of the year and should be a tight contest, although oddsmakers have made the Trojans 10.5-point favorites. (Check out our offical Ohio State-USC smack talk thread as well.)

No. 13 Kansas (2-0) at No. 19 South Florida (2-0), Friday 8:00 PM ET ESPN2
This is a tremendous matchup to kick off the Week 3 schedule as Kansas and its high-powered offense take on South Florida, which has the No. 1 ranked defense in college football. In their two wins, the Jayhawks averaged over 450 yards a game, but they go up against a Bulls’ defense Friday night that has only allowed an average of 161.5 yards per game. Oddsmakers have listed South Florida as a 3-point home favorite.

No. 10 Wisconsin (2-0) at No. 21 Fresno State (1-0), 10:30 PM ET ESPN2
Marshall rolled out to a 14-0 lead on the Badgers last week before Wisconsin eventually settled down and hammered the Thundering Heard 51-14 to improve to 2-0 on the year. Fresno State dismantled Rutgers 24-7 in New Jersey in Week 1 and should be well rested coming off a bye last week. One thing to keep an eye on is the health status of Wisconsin TE Travis Beckum, who missed the Badgers’ first two games this year with a bad hamstring. Beckum is highly regarded as one of the top tight end prospect in college football and is expected to play this weekend.

Chris SmelleyNo. 2 Georgia (2-0) at South Carolina (1-1), Saturday 3:30 PM ET CBS
Before being upset by Vanderbilt last week, the Game Cocks were supposed to be Georgia’s first real test of the 2008 season. One has to assume that South Carolina is going to come out fired up after being bounced from the top 25 following their loss to the Commodores. The Bulldogs absolutely hammered Central Michigan last week, but can’t take anything for granted this Saturday playing a pissed off Steve Spurrier squad. SC is a 7.5-point home underdog.

Upset Watch:
UCLA (1-0) at No. 18 BYU (2-0)
Washington gave BYU all it could handle in Week 2 before the Cougars eventually eked out a 28-27 win. And the last time we saw the Bruins, they were upsetting Tennessee in the first week of the season. While this wouldn’t be a huge upset, it would be the second time in two chances that UCLA knocks off a ranked opponent. And with Fresno State, Oregon, California, ASU and USC on their schedule, the Bruins will have plenty of opportunities to make some noise and possibly become one of the best surprises of the season. BYU is currently an 8-point favorite.

Other notable games:
No. 14 East Carolina at Tulane – Saturday, 3:00 PM ET
No. 3 Oklahoma at Washington – Saturday, 7:45 PM ET
Arkansas at No. 8 Texas – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET

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