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Fade Material: College Football Week 12 Predictions

Michigan’s quarterback Denard Robinson looks for his receiver during the second half of their NCAA college football game against Purdue in Ann Arbor, Michigan, October 29, 2011. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

It’s November, and predicting college games in November is akin to jamming your hand down a garbage disposal with a ring on each finger.

In other words, it can be a bloody mess of a situation.

Sorry for the graphic nastiness. I’m just a little salty after going 1-3 last week, which dropped my season record to 24-18-2. That’s not bad overall but when you consider I haven’t had a winning week in a while, I’m a little on edge. (I’ve had plenty of .500 weeks, but a push is not a win, my friends.)

The hook screwed me in the Nebraska-Penn State game while Illinois was thumped at home by Michigan and Nevada couldn’t cover the digits against Hawaii. Louisiana Tech was an easy winner at Ole Miss, but a 1-3 record isn’t going to do it. Unless, of course, you name your prediction column “Fade Material.” Then you’re covered either way. (See, smart, huh?)

On to this week’s nastiness…

Nebraska @ Michigan, 12:00PM ET
I think the Huskers are a pile of inconsistent dirty diapers. One week they hold Michigan State to only a field goal and then come out the following Saturday and lose to Northwestern at home. Then they build a 17-0 lead on Penn State only to keep the Nittany Lions in it until the very end. My point is, I don’t trust Nebraska. I don’t know what I’m getting in Nebraska. I know what I’m getting in Michigan. They can’t throw the ball but Denard Robinson is going to make plays and the Wolverines have been unbeatable at home this year. The hook scares the hell out of me after what happened last week at Happy Valley but I’m going to roll the dice anyway with the home favorite.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN –3.5

Oklahoma @ Baylor, 8:00PM ET
The Sooners are done losing this year (at least in the regular season) and they clearly are out to prove that they’re still national-title worthy. The last time these two teams met was in Waco last year, where Oklahoma rolled to a 53-24 victory. I expect more of the same this year from Landry Jones and Co. Robert Griffin III is a nice player but I trust Oklahoma’s defense to stop Baylor’s explosive offense way more than I trust the Bears to slow down the Sooners.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA –15

USC @ Oregon, 8:00PM ET
When I first saw this line I said, “Wow, 14.5 points? USC has more than enough talent to hang with Oregon and cover that spread.” Then I remembered how badly the Ducks took it to the Trojans in Southern Cal last year and one of the many unwritten rules of college football betting: Never go against Oregon in Eugene. I think I’m 0-42 either with or against the Ducks this season, but I like them tonight. Matt Barkley will keep things close at first but Oregon is just too explosive on its home turf.
THE PICK: OREGON –14.5

Cal @ Stanford, 10:15PM ET
With the way Andrew Luck and Co. lost last Saturday to Oregon, I think it’ll take them a quarter or two to shake off the bad vibes. Cal is a very imperfect team but its more than capable of hanging with the Cardinal if Stanford comes out in a fog. Call this one a hunch, but I like the Golden Bears to stay within a touchdown or two of the Cardinal.
THE PICK: CAL +17.5

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

2009 College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions

Last week was bitter sweet as I went 4-0 straight up but just 1-3 against the spread. Keep in mind that I try to only pick top 25 games, so they’re much, much harder to predict. Like, much harder. (Or at least that’s my excuse anyway.)

No. 8 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30PM ET
Both of these SEC teams will be looking to finish the 2009 season strong when they square off this Saturday in Oxford. The Rebels snapped a six-game losing streak to the Tigers last season but they haven’t won at home in his series since 1998. The public seems high on Ole Miss after the Rebs hammered Tennessee last Saturday, but keep in mind that the Vols were in the midst of some turmoil after three of their players were arrested for attempted armed robbery last week. Dexter McCluster went off on Tennessee for 282 yards and four touchdowns, but he’ll have a hard time repeating that effort against a stout LSU front seven. Something tells me that Les Miles’ team is still pissed off about what happened two weeks again in Tuscaloosa and will play this week with passion. I see a small upset for the Tigers and an outright win.
Odds: Ole Miss –4.5.
Prediction: LSU 20, Ole Miss 17.

No. 25 California at No. 17 Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Stanford is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now. The Cardinal have scored 106 points combined against Oregon and USC the past two weeks and senior running back Toby Gerhart has almost been unstoppable. Without running back Jahvid Best, Cal squeaked by Arizona last week, 24-16. With Best sidelined again this Saturday, many expect Stanford to roll but don’t forget that Cal has the 19th best run defense in the nation and is capable of containing Gerhart and keeping things close. Quarterback Kevin Riley might be able to take advantage of a Stanford secondary that has been inconsistent this season, although without the threat of a running game the Bears’ offense might become too one-dimensional in the second half. I think Stanford will pull out the victory but this game will be closer than people think.
Odds: Stanford –7.5.
Prediction: Stanford 35, Cal 31.

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