Fade Material: College Football Week 11 Predictions
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/12/2011 @ 8:00 am)
Penn State University head coach Joe Paterno looks toward the scoreboard during his team’s game against the University of Illinois in their NCAA football game in Champaign, Illinois October 3, 2009. REUTERS/Jeff Haynes (UNITED STATES SPORT FOOTBALL)
Technically I went 2-2 last Saturday but I did produce this gem, which was worth another win in my eyes:
My 2-2 effort last week puts me at 21-13-2 ATS for the season. Again, chances are two of these four picks will be winners while two will be losers. Soooo, have fun with that.
My two winners? Iowa (+4) and UCLA (+8.5). My two losers? Alabama (-4.5) and Texas A&M (+14).
My latest .500 week puts me at 23-15-2 on the season and once again, if you can figure out which two picks will hit and which two won’t, you’ll have a 4-0 Saturday. It’s like a game. A twisted, nauseating game.
Nebraska @ Penn State, 12:00PM ET
One of two things are going to happen this week at University Park. Either Penn State is going to play the most inspired football of the season or the Jerry Sandusky/Joe Paterno fiasco is going to bury them. I’m banking on the latter, which is why I’m riding the brutal-against-the-spread Huskers this week. Nebraska will be fired up and while Penn State may show plenty of emotion at the start, I think they’ll run out of steam eventually.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA –3.5
Michigan @ Illinois, 3:30PM ET
I’m going right back to the well in picking against Michigan. Outside of trouncing Northwestern, the Wolverines have played poorly in two of their three road games this season. While Illinois is going backwards, this is a good opportunity for the Illini to snap their current three-game losing streak. They also seem to play Michigan tough, which is supported by their 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games these two teams have met.
THE PICK: ILLINOIS –1
Louisiana Tech @ Ole Miss, 7:30PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this week but I really love this matchup. Some bettors will look at this game and all they’ll see is the WAC vs. the SEC, and the fact that Ole Miss is getting points at home. But in some respects, this is the Bulldogs’ season. They take down a SEC opponent on the road and regardless of whether or not they catch Nevada, their season will be a success. As for the Rebels, will their hearts even be in this one? They’ve been terrible all year and now they have a non-conference game that means absolutely nothing to them. Even though LA Tech is favored, I like the Dogs in an “upset.”
THE PICK: LOUISIANA TECH –2
Hawaii @ Nevada, 10:15PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this week. Hawaii has had issues coming to the mainland, as evidence of its embarrassing 40-20 loss to UNLV in Week 3. UNLV is one of the worst teams in college football this season and it steamrolled a Warrior team that was a 17-point favorite. Nevada is 4-1 against the spread in its last five home games against Hawaii and the home squad is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. I hate that the line is a full point and a half above the key number of 14 but I like the Wolf Pack anyway.
THE PICK: NEVADA -15
Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.
Posted in: College Football, Free Picks
Tags: college football free picks, college football free picks week 11, College football odds, College football predictions, college football predictions week 11, college football scandals, College Football Week 11, Jerry Sandusky, Jerry Sandusky scandal, Joe Paterno, joe paterno scandal, mike mcqueary, Penn State scandal
Alabama No. 1, Texas Tech No. 2 – do the polls have it right?
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/10/2008 @ 12:30 pm)
After ‘Bama squeaked by LSU in overtime and Tech ran ramped over Oklahoma State on Saturday night, the hottest debate in college football centers around which team deserves to be ranked No. 1. The polls say Crimson Tide, but many pundits and college football fans alike believe the Red Raiders are easily the best team in the nation.
It’s hard to say unequivocally that neither team deserves to be ranked in the top spot. ‘Bama has disposed of some of the best teams in the SEC including LSU and Georgia, but college football enthusiasts will be quick to note that the conference is down on a whole this year so those victories don’t hold as much water.
Conversely, Tech has run through the best the Big 12 has to offer including Texas and Oklahoma State, and still has to face Oklahoma two weeks from now. And unlike the SEC, nobody is saying the Big 12 is down this year.
Assuming Tech gets past the Sooners (which won’t be a picnic by any means) and ‘Bama holds off Mississippi State and Auburn, than the battle for No. 1 will most likely come down to championship weekend. If the Tide beat Florida, than it’s hard to say ‘Bama should be ranked any lower than the top spot, especially considering Tech’s opponent in the Big 12 championship won’t be as tough. (I think we can essentially say that Oklahoma will be Tech’s Big 12 Championship Game.)
Don’t count out the Gators either. They’re playing about as well as any team in the nation right now and are making a case for being ranked No. 1 themselves. This is going to be a great finish to a wild college football season.
Posted in: College Football
Tags: Alabama Crimson Tide, Alabama or Texas Tech?, BCS Standings, College Football Week 11, College Football Week 12, Florida Gators, Latest college football polls, New BCS polls, New College football polls, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Texas Tech vs. Alabama
Texas Tech crushes Oklahoma State to remain No. 2
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/08/2008 @ 11:20 pm)
So much for Oklahoma State pulling off the biggest upset of Week 11. No. 2 Texas Tech had zero issues with the Cowboys, rolling to a 56-20 win in Lubbock on Saturday night.
Many pundits thought that OK State would hang with the Red Raiders, but the exact opposite transpired. The Cowboys did take a 7-0 lead after recovering a fumble on Tech’s first possession of the game, but Graham Harrell (40 of 50 for 456 yards, 6 TDs) and Michael Crabtree (8 rec., 89 yards, 3 TDs) took over the rest of the way. Speaking of Crabtree, I don’t think there’s any doubt that he’s going to be an elite receiver at the next level. He’s big, he’s physical, he can run and he has phenomenal hands. He won’t be bust in the NFL – he’s going to be special. And watching Harrell run Tech’s offense is like watching an artist paint a freaking masterpiece.
Not that any team does, but OK State had absolutely no idea how to defend Tech’s explosive passing attack. If they blitzed, the Raiders picked it up and Harrell shredded the Cowboys up the middle and down the seams. If State stayed back in coverage, Harrell took what the defense gave him and still found open receivers. And down on the goal line, the Cowboys stood zero chance against Crabtree or the Raiders’ spread attack.
I’m not surprised that Tech won and won convincingly, but I am surprised at how easy it was. OK State is a good football team and an improving program, but as soon as they got up 7-0, it’s almost like they put it on cruise control the rest of the way. Tech made them look like a Pop Warner team.
I want to see Tech play for a national championship. People can talk about how they don’t play defense, but they just held a powerful Cowboys’ offense to only 20 points. They’re exciting to watch and they play with an attitude. They’re the most exciting team in college football and I’m not so sure that even a top defensive team like USC or Alabama could slow them down.
Tech is just that good.
Tennessee is an absolute mess
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/08/2008 @ 10:09 pm)
It’s one thing to lose to Georgia, Alabama or South Carolina. Those teams are in the SEC. It’s quite another to lose to a MWC team – not to mention a bad MWC team.
The Tennessee Volunteers reached a new low Saturday after they lost at home 13-7 to Wyoming. The Vols managed just 219 total yards of offense, including only 118 through the air. They were held to single digits for the third game in a row and their seven points was their fewest in a non-conference game since 2002 when Miami beat them 26-3.
It’s not that Wyoming has a terrible defense (they did rank 39th in the nation coming into this game), but to only score seven points is against an inferior opponent is embarrassing. Outside of sophomore tailback Lennon Creer, the Vols have next to nothing in terms of offensive talent. They can’t move the ball and even when they do, they cap drives off with turnovers when they get into opponents’ territory.
Whoever takes over for Phillip Fulmer has his work cut out for him.
No. 1 Alabama escapes with OT win against LSU
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/08/2008 @ 7:52 pm)
Many figured it would be a dogfight and that’s exactly what it was. No. 1 Alabama escaped Baton Rouge with a 27-21 overtime victory against No. 15 LSU on Saturday. The Tigers forced overtime after blocking a chip shot field goal that would have given the Tide a 24-21 victory at the end of regulation had it gone through the uprights. Then following an interception on LSU’s first and only crack in overtime, John Parker Wilson scored the game-winning touchdown on a QB sneak.
This was a huge win for ‘Bama for so many obvious reasons. First and foremost, the victory allows them to stay in the top ranked spot and with Penn State losing in Iowa, possibly gives them insurance down the road, too. But even more importantly, Nick Saban’s team proved it could beat a quality opponent on the road and do so while playing four quarters. The Tide have struggled putting complete games together this season, but after falling behind 14-7 in the first quarter to LSU, they never panicked or folded.
Things aren’t all good for Alabama, however. The blocked field goal has to be a major concern considering they missed two field goals in the narrow win over Ole’ Miss earlier this year and one more in Baton Rouge before the game-winning attempt. The Tide should roll past Mississippi State next week and then face rival Auburn before playing in the SEC Championship Game, but one has to wonder if this kicking situation will eventually doom them in the very near future. They play a ton of close games and having a reliable kicker in college football is worth its weight in gold.
But for now, ‘Bama can breathe a sigh of relief after beating LSU in a rough environment. Not only that, but Saban actually made it out of Baton Rouge alive, which is certainly a place considering that was his first trip there since spurning the Tigers for the NFL a few years ago.
Big Ten haters rejoice as Iowa knocks off Penn State
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/08/2008 @ 6:48 pm)
College football fans that didn’t want to see a Big Ten team play for a nation championship can celebrate tonight as unranked Iowa upset No. 3 Penn State 24-23 with a last second field goal.
This all but guarantees that the Nittany Lions won’t play in the title game since they don’t face another ranked team the rest of the way. If Alabama and Texas Tech fall too, PSU still has a shot. But losing to LSU or Oklahoma State is certainly different than losing to an unranked Iowa team.
This was obviously a devastating loss for PSU, but many pundits saw this coming. The Big Ten is so even with talent this year that it’s not surprising that a decent Hawkeyes team could knock them off in Iowa City. The good news is that with the Lions falling, there will be less controversy than if they had gone undefeated and didn’t wind up playing in the title game. The bad news is that BCS supporters will use this game as an example to say, “See – college football does have playoffs! The regular season is the playoffs!”
But I don’t want to hear it. This was an impressive win and a great upset, but it’s still just a regular season game. If this was a playoff game, than the result still leaves me unfulfilled and I want more. I want a true playoff system.
Getting back to the result of this game, if Alabama loses to LSU (they’re tied at 21-21 as of this post) than the Texas Tech-Oklahoma State game gets even bigger than it already is. Regardless of crappy the BCS system is, this is shaping up to be a great day in college football.
Week 11 College Football Primer
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/08/2008 @ 11:01 am)
Top 25 vs. Top 25
No. 1 Alabama at No. 16 LSU, 3:30 PM ET Saturday
Nick Saban doesn’t want the focus to be on him this week and for good reason since he spurned LSU a few years ago to go fail in the NFL. That storyline might be a little overrated though, because it’s doubtful the current Tiger players Saban recruited care much about beating him on Saturday. They’ll have more motivation beating a hated rival and knocking off the No. 1 team in the nation. ‘Bama has had issues playing four full quarters all season – will this be the week they finally play a full game and soundly beat a quality opponent? Or will LSU sustain the Tide’s initial punch and come through in the second half? This game is what SEC football is all about and we should expect nothing more than a close, physical matchup that comes down to the wire, even though Alabama has the superior team.
No. 12 TCU at No. 8 Utah, 8:00 PM ET Thursday
The Horned Frogs have the opportunity to knock off yet another MWC foe out of BCS title contention this Saturday when they pay a trip to Utah. TCU has held its previous five opponents to only 8.4 points per game and have also limited eight foes to a 2008 season low in yards, which is the most of any team in Division I football. Pundits love what the Frogs bring to the table defensively, but the Utes have plenty to offer themselves. Utah has held four of its opponents to season lows in yardage and has won nine in a row at home. They’ve also beaten TCU the past two meetings and obviously have a ton to play for.
No. 11 Ohio State at No. 24 Northwestern, 12:00 PM ET
The Wildcats got a lot of people’s attention last week when they pulled off a miracle upset of Minnesota in the final seconds of the game. But Ohio State has had over a week to stew about the loss to Penn State and they’ve had a ton of success against Northwestern over the past couple of years. The Buckeyes have allowed just 23 total points the past three games and it’s highly doubtful backup quarterback Mike Kakfa puts together back-to-back solid performances. It’ll be interesting to see how freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor rebounds after his crucial fumble played a big role in OSU’s loss to the Nittany Lions.
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 2 Texas Tech, 8:00 PM ET, Saturday
It’s no wonder why people keep talking about the Big 12 being the superior conference this season when it keeps churning out fantastic matchups like this every week. Tech had zero time to celebrate its win over Texas last week because the Cowboys offer another potential roadblock to the Raiders’ BCS title hopes. Much like last week, this game features a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback in Graham Harrell and Zac Robinson. Can Tech continue to post 500 yards of offense every game or will Mike Leach’s team eventually stumble? OK State hasn’t won in Lubbock since 1944, but the Cowboys have played very well on the road under Mike Gundy and are hoping a win could elevate their BCS status after they hung tough with Texas a few weeks ago. Can the Raiders play as well defensively as they did last week against the Longhorns or will yet another top 5 team get picked off?
No. 21 California at No. 7 USC, 8:00 PM ET, Saturday
Many pundits have had this game circled as one where the Trojans could potentially fall victim to an upset. The Bears usually play USC close and fought the Trojans to the final whistle last year before losing by only a touchdown. USC struggled a bit last week in Arizona, but are incredibly tough to beat at the Coliseum. Maybe head coach Pete Carroll will call upon “Captain Compete” to rally his team again before the game.
No. 20 Georgia Tech at No. 19 North Carolina, 12:00 PM ET, Saturday
The Yellow Jackets struggled again last week but managed to knock off Florida State with a last second field goal after a goal line stop and a fumble recovery in the end zone (thank you reader GTA for the correction). Tech is 9-1 against the Heels in their last 10 meetings, but UNC has 17 interceptions on the season, which ties them for the most in the nation. The key in this game will be whether or not the Heels can stop Tech’s relentless ground attack for four quarters. If the Jackets find success on the ground, there will be no reason to put the ball in the air often and risk turning the ball over to a ball-hawking UNC defense.
Other Notable Games:
No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa, 3:30 PM ET, Saturday
Those fans that don’t want to see another Big Ten team play for a national championship will be watching this game with hopes that the Hawkeyes can pull off a huge upset. The Lions probably won’t faced another ranked team the rest of the way, although Iowa and Michigan State are no pushovers. PSU is coming off a bye week – will they come out flat or determine after moving down in the rankings?
Posted in: College Football
Tags: Alabama Crimson Tide, California Bears, College football predictions, College Football Week 11, College Football Week 11 preview, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Graham Harrell, LSU Tigers, Mike Kakfa, Nick Saban, North Carolina Tar Heels, Northwestern Wildcats, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Penn State Nittany Lions, TCU Horned Frogs, Terrelle Pryor, Texas Tech, USC Trojans, Utah Utes, Zac Robinson
The college football regular season is not a playoff
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/07/2008 @ 10:59 am)
Phil Guidry of SI.com is my hero:
The regular season is a playoff
Of all the absolute nonsense network sportscasters and BCS apologists spew during the season, this might be the most galling. If the regular season is a playoff, it’s the most asinine, unfulfilling playoff ever devised. If this is a playoff, it’s missing one teeny, tiny, possibly useful ingredient for the big picture: the actual “playing” part.
Things would be fine if everyone played the same balanced schedule and the best teams got the chance to pick each other off during the season until a true champion emerged. But if there’s one thing college football fans can agree on, it’s that conference schedules are not created equal…
In reality, this alleged regular season playoff settles virtually nothing on the field, and that means at the end of the year we could have the following situation: Florida could get shut out of the title game even though it’s churning through SEC opponents by 30 points per game. Penn State could get shut out even with an undefeated season. USC could get shut out even though it’s, well, shutting people out (three times this season, and it hasn’t even faced UCLA yet). Texas could get shut out even though its only loss came against an unbeaten team, in the final seconds, thanks to the best play of the season. Oklahoma could get shut out even though Texas is the only team that beat it…
Imagine a world where the NFL didn’t have playoffs. It just had a 17-Week regular season and at the end, the New York Giants played the Tennessee Titans because each team had the right combination of wins, common opponents and margin of victory points.
I think I just threw up in my mouth. And that’s how I feel watching college football every Saturday knowing that there’s no true playoff system to tell me if Penn State is better than Texas Tech or Alabama is better than Florida.
Utah keeps BCS hopes alive with last minute TD to beat TCU
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/07/2008 @ 10:14 am)
They had trailed all game and their BCS hopes appeared to be dashed. Yet back-to-back missed field goals by TCU had kept No. 8 Utah alive.
Down 10-6 the entire second half, the Utes started at their own 20 with 2:48 left in the game. There, QB Brian Johnson marched Utah down the field in rhythmic fashion, even completing an 11-yard pass on a 4th and 5 from TCU’s 26-yard line. Then, on a 2nd and 4 from the TCU 9-yard line, Johnson found Freddie Brown for the go-ahead touchdown with only 47 seconds to play. Utah held on the final 47 seconds for a 13-10 win.
It took the Utes nine plays and 80 yards, but they had saved their season. For the No. 12 Horned Frogs, it had taken them just two minutes and one second from blowing the opportunity to knock off the No. 8 team in the nation and perhaps climb into the top 10 themselves.
Utah’s comeback was incredibly impressive and what a game by the senior Johnson. But TCU blew a golden opportunity to put the Utes away several times in the fourth quarter. Twice they had marched into the red zone with less than seven minutes remaining in the game and twice they were unable to put the game away with touchdowns or even field goals, as they missed two 30-yard attempts that would have at least kept the game tied once Utah scored.
It’s hard to blame TCU’s defense for finally yielding in the final minutes. Normally when you hold the No. 8 team to only 13 points (including 6 until the final three minutes left in the game) you should walk away with a victory.
Utah is overrated
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/05/2008 @ 11:03 am)
Or so says Gordon Monson of The Salt Lake Tribune.
The No. 8 Utes can feel some satisfaction about their being 9-0, supposedly on course for a BCS bowl, and the No. 15 Cougars can handle being 8-1, despite higher aspirations earlier this season, until TCU blasted them to smithereens.
But based on what they’ve shown thus far, neither of these teams is as good as the record suggests. That’s not a mean-spirited rip, it’s simply an obvious truth. They just do not belong, not so far, among the country’s elite.
The goings-on last weekend are Exhibit A: squeaking by with three-point wins over competition that wouldn’t create much of a threat to the teams ranked around them, not even in a season where upsets have been plentiful.
Utah made the New Mexico Lobos look like the New York Giants on Saturday night, unimpressively edging them, 13-10. We all get sick of judging and guessing who would do what against whom in college football, but . . . anybody think Penn State or Florida or Oklahoma or any of the teams ranked ahead of Utah would struggle the way the Utes did to beat the 4-6 Lobos? Would any of those ranked teams put just 13 points on them?
I completely agree, but this is what you get when you have a college football system that’s so broken. Utah is No. 8 because they’re undefeated. They’re undefeated because they don’t play anybody on a consistent basis. So every year we have to wait until they either are upset by a lesser opponent and therefore justify not being ranked that high, or get screwed out of a chance to play for a title because their conference/schedule is weak.
This is unavoidable with the way college football is set up.
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