By God, I had a winning week last Saturday.

After what seemed like a good 62 months of solid .500 efforts, I won three of four last Saturday as Oregon, Wisconsin and South Carolina all covered. (Georgia Tech was my main loss as they struggled to keep up with Georgia.) That puts my season record at 29-21-2 against the spread this year and with this being the final week, it looks like I’ll finish above .500 on the season. FANTASTIC.

Georgia @ LSU, 4:00PM ET
Like most morons with an opinion, I think the Tigers will handle the Bulldogs rather easily in the SEC title game today. Aaron Murray has had a fantastic season for Georgia but LSU’s defense makes quarterbacks of all talent levels look silly. And while the Dawgs’ defense has been solid, I think the Tigers will eventually wear down Georgia in the second half. Usually LSU is a bad bet as a double-digit favorite but the Tigers are on a mission this year. They’ve easily been the best team in the nation.
THE PICK: LSU TIGERS -13

Virginia Tech @ Clemson, 8:00PM ET
For weeks I waited for Clemson to have one of its Clemson-like games and choke on applesauce. But following their back-to-back wins against Maryland and North Carolina in mid-October I said you know what? The Tigers are for real. Stop waiting for them to crash and burn because it’s not going to happen. The very next week they crapped themselves in a lousy 31-17 effort versus Georgia Tech as I ate massive amounts of dirty, dirty crow. The Tigers haven’t been the same since that loss to the Yellow Jackets and the Hokies haven’t been the same since they lost to Clemson 23-3 earlier in the year. VA Tech hasn’t lost since that October 1 game against the Tigers and I don’t expect Frank Beamer’s squad to lose tonight either.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES -6.5

No. 10 Oklahoma @ No. 3 Oklahoma State, 8:00PM ET
I really, really like Oklahoma State. I think the Cowboys are extremely fun to watch and Brandon Weeden gives me hope that at 29, I can still quarterback a BCS team to a major bowl as soon as I get around to it. Do you feel a “but” coming on? Because it is. BUT, the Cowboys haven’t beaten the Sooners in nine years. For whatever reason, OK State has a complex when it comes to Oklahoma and I like getting the hook. It makes me feel secure, like health insurance. (Although my health insurance company loves to bend me over so hopefully the Sooners won’t do the same.)
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA SOONERS +3.5

Michigan State @ Wisconsin, 8:17PM ET
Talk about a lack of respect for the Spartans: Wisconsin is a 9.5-point favorite in this game? Michigan State might not have the same talent offensively but the Spartan defense should keep this game close throughout. I was one of the people who said the Badgers would roll against the Spartans back in October but MSU showed something that night. Whether you thought the Spartans’ Hail Mary should have counted or not, Sparty proved that it could hang with the Badgers. Granted, that game was in East Lansing but MSU has a habit of playing well when nobody expects them to win.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS +9.5

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While Michigan covered easily and Cal made for a nice underdog pick at Stanford, Oklahoma and Oregon both lost outright which gave me a 2-2 record for Week 12. That puts me at 26-20-2 on the season with just two weeks remaining until Bowl season starts. Maybe the college football gods will humor me with a victory this weekend…

…ha! That’s rich.

Georgia @ Georgia Tech, 12:00PM ET
I fully expect the Bulldogs to have a hangover after clinching a SEC title berth last weekend in their highly impressive 19-10 romp over Kentucky. (/end sarcasm.) The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 against the spread in their last five non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus the SEC. The Dawgs, meanwhile, are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I like GA Tech to hang with its in-state rivals today, if not win outright.
THE PICK: GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS +6

Oregon State @ Oregon, 3:30PM ET
Following their loss last Saturday to USC, the Ducks really only have one chance to reach the national title game: Blow out their next two opponents and hope like hell the top teams fall. Oregon State would seem like a massive value at +28 but Oregon is angry. This one could get real ugly, real fast and Chip Kelly isn’t going to stop lighting up the scoreboard if he gets a chance.
THE PICK: OREGON DUCKS –27.5

Penn State @ Wisconsin, 3:30PM ET
Even though they won last Saturday in Illinois, the Badgers’ 28-17 victory over the Illini certainly wasn’t impressive. Thus, I like them to “bounce back” against a Penn State team this weekend that simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match the likes of Montee Ball and Russell Wilson. The favorite is 6-0 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the home squad is 4-1 against the number in the last five meetings.
THE PICK: WISCONSIN BADGERS –14.5

Clemson @ South Carolina, 7:45PM ET
The Tigers have turned the ball over 11 times in their last three games and the Gamecocks have a very opportunistic defense. That sounds like a recipe for disaster for Clemson, which is just 1-4 against the number in its last five games against South Carolina. I’m not a big fan of laying the points with the Gamecocks, who have a habit of making things more interesting than they need to be. That said, Clemson certainly doesn’t look like a team right now that deserves to be playing in the ACC title game.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS –3.5

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

Technically I went 2-2 last Saturday but I did produce this gem, which was worth another win in my eyes:

My 2-2 effort last week puts me at 21-13-2 ATS for the season. Again, chances are two of these four picks will be winners while two will be losers. Soooo, have fun with that.

My two winners? Iowa (+4) and UCLA (+8.5). My two losers? Alabama (-4.5) and Texas A&M (+14).

My latest .500 week puts me at 23-15-2 on the season and once again, if you can figure out which two picks will hit and which two won’t, you’ll have a 4-0 Saturday. It’s like a game. A twisted, nauseating game.

Nebraska @ Penn State, 12:00PM ET
One of two things are going to happen this week at University Park. Either Penn State is going to play the most inspired football of the season or the Jerry Sandusky/Joe Paterno fiasco is going to bury them. I’m banking on the latter, which is why I’m riding the brutal-against-the-spread Huskers this week. Nebraska will be fired up and while Penn State may show plenty of emotion at the start, I think they’ll run out of steam eventually.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA –3.5

Michigan @ Illinois, 3:30PM ET
I’m going right back to the well in picking against Michigan. Outside of trouncing Northwestern, the Wolverines have played poorly in two of their three road games this season. While Illinois is going backwards, this is a good opportunity for the Illini to snap their current three-game losing streak. They also seem to play Michigan tough, which is supported by their 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games these two teams have met.
THE PICK: ILLINOIS –1

Louisiana Tech @ Ole Miss, 7:30PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this week but I really love this matchup. Some bettors will look at this game and all they’ll see is the WAC vs. the SEC, and the fact that Ole Miss is getting points at home. But in some respects, this is the Bulldogs’ season. They take down a SEC opponent on the road and regardless of whether or not they catch Nevada, their season will be a success. As for the Rebels, will their hearts even be in this one? They’ve been terrible all year and now they have a non-conference game that means absolutely nothing to them. Even though LA Tech is favored, I like the Dogs in an “upset.”
THE PICK: LOUISIANA TECH –2

Hawaii @ Nevada, 10:15PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this week. Hawaii has had issues coming to the mainland, as evidence of its embarrassing 40-20 loss to UNLV in Week 3. UNLV is one of the worst teams in college football this season and it steamrolled a Warrior team that was a 17-point favorite. Nevada is 4-1 against the spread in its last five home games against Hawaii and the home squad is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. I hate that the line is a full point and a half above the key number of 14 but I like the Wolf Pack anyway.
THE PICK: NEVADA -15

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

My season record stayed status quo after finishing 2-2 last week. Alabama and Texas Tech (which won outright against Oklahoma) covered but neither Arkansas nor Boise State mustered enough points against Ole Miss and Air Force, respectively. In fact, Arkansas nearly lost outright and Air Force kept things relatively close all game against the Broncos.

My season record is now 19-11-2 and I keep rotating between feeling confident and scared out of my mind with my picks this week.

Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 3:30PM ET
One of two things is going to happen today. Either the Sooners are going to come out pissed off about their loss last week to Tech and absolutely crush the Wildcats or they’re going to come out flat and potentially lose outright. What I don’t like about that scenario is the unknown. We know what we’re getting out of K-State: A solid football team with a dual threat quarterback that has been disrespected by oddsmakers all season. I think the spread should be closer to 10 instead of nearly two touchdowns. I get that oddsmakers are trying to protect themselves from a potential OU rout, but I still like Bill Snyder’s team today at home.
THE PICK: KANSAS STATE +13.5

Baylor @ Oklahoma State, 3:30PM ET
It’s funny, the Cowboys keep rolling but the lines in their games always seem pretty reasonable for a team that’s 7-0 and 6-1 against the spread this season. It appears as though the sharp bettors keep going against them and it’s keeping the spreads low. I realize that Baylor can score on anyone and OK State’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. But the Bears’ D isn’t anything to right home about either and if it’s going to be a shootout, I like Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon on their home turf, especially with Baylor coming off a humbling 55-28 loss to Texas A&M.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -14

Colorado @ Arizona State, 6:30PM ET
I thought the Buffaloes were going to keep things close at home against a banged up Oregon team. Instead, Colorado was crushed 45-2 in one of the more pathetic showings of any college team this year. With quarterback Tyler Hansen (concussion) not expected to play and redshirt freshman Nick Hirschman under center, I like ASU to roll. The Sun Devils haven’t exactly been lighting the stat sheet up but Colorado has been outscored by an average of 26.5 points in its four road losses this season. Brock Osweiler should have himself a big night.
THE PICK: ARIZONA STATE -31

Clemson @ Georgia Tech, 8:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Clemson to implode and all they keep doing is winning. BIG. I was among the contingent that believed the Tigers would fall apart at some point but looking at their upcoming schedule they have a great opportunity to finish the season undefeated if they can play well on the road. Today marks the first of three road games that Clemson has left on its schedule. A trip to Atlanta to play Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets is never easy, but Georgia Tech has issues. Quarterback Tevin Washington has thrown four interceptions over the last three games, starting center Jay Finch is out with an injured leg and opponents have started to exploit Johnson’s run-happy offense. I have no qualms about laying the points with Clemson. I just hope the hook doesn’t burn me.
THE PICK: CLEMSON TIGERS –3.5

Last Week: 2-2
Season Record: 19-11-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

If you can’t trust a Vandal, whom can you trust?

Idaho cost me an opportunity for back-to-back 4-0 Saturdays by failing to score at the goal line in the closing seconds against New Mexico State. A touchdown and PAT would have sent the game into overtime while giving the Vandals (+1) a chance to cover. But realizing that if they won I would be 8-0 in the last two weeks, Idaho threw the game, stalled out on fourth down and handed me a 3-1 record. The nerve!

Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State (thanks to Steve Spurrier, who took a safety to run the clock out last week, allowing the 3-point underdog Bulldog team to cover) were winners last week, while Idaho was my lone loser. That runs my season record to 17-9-2.

Arkansas @ Mississippi, 12:20PM ET
Houston Nutt’s football team has issues. Ole Miss ranks 11th in the SEC in total offense and 12th in total defense, which isn’t a good sign with Arkansas coming to town. Razorbacks’ quarterback Tyler Wilson ranks second in the SEC in passing efficiently and total offense, leading a passing attack that averages 336.8 yards through the air. Wilson has too many weapons to use against an overmatched Rebels defense. Arkansas is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games against Ole Miss, which is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS –15.5

Air Force @ Boise State, 3:30PM ET
This one could be a bloodbath if Boise State doesn’t get in its own way. The Falcons lead the Mountain West in total offense and rushing offense, but their defense will have a tough time slowing Kellen Moore, who has now thrown for 120 career touchdown passes. Boise State has won its last two games by a combined 100 points, which is the exact number Air Force has allowed over its last two outings. I just don’t think the Falcons can keep pace if the Broncos start to roll.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE –29.5

Tennessee @ Alabama, 7:15PM ET
With LSU coming up next Saturday, this could very well be a trap game for Alabama, although either way Tennessee still has to figure out a way to score without Tyler Bray under center. Matt Simms was a small disaster last week at home against LSU while completing just six passes and throwing two interceptions. Thus, how well do you think he’ll fare this Saturday on the road in Tuscaloosa? Even if Trent Richardson and the ‘Bama offense doesn’t get rolling until the second half, I don’t envision Simms figuring out Tide’s stingy defense.
THE PICK: ALABAMA –30

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma, 8:00PM ET
I realize the Red Raiders lost their last two games but they also played Texas A&M and Kansas State – two top 20 teams. For Oklahoma to be giving up four touchdowns after the way it played last Saturday in Kansas (a rather sloppy performance despite the 47-17 score) is a little surprising. True, Tech’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed right now. But led by Seth Doege, their offense usually hangs with opponents. If the Sooners have as much trouble in the red zone on Saturday as they did last weekend in Kansas, I like Tech to cover.
THE PICK: TEXAS TECH +28.5

Last Week: 3-1
Season Record: 17-9-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

Well I’ll be a son of monkey’s uncle: I had my first 4-0 Saturday of the year last week. Never thought I’d see the day.

I ate that chalk like it was no tomorrow with picks of Alabama (-29), Stanford (-29) and LSU (-13), but they all covered somewhat easily. My best pick wound up being a 10-point dog in Wake Forest, which won outright at home against Florida State. That pushes my season record to 14-8-2, which can only mean one thing: A 0-4 Saturday is right around the corner…

Indiana @ Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
This is one of those games when you look at the line and say, “Thirty-nine and a half points? Indiana is getting 39.5 points? Oh, they have to cover that spread. All they need to do is show up!” Then you check the score two minutes in and it’s already 14-0 Wisconsin and they’re lining up to kick a field goal to add to their lead. The last time these two teams met, the Badgers put up 83 points on the Hoosiers in Indiana, without Russell Wilson under center. So no, I don’t mind laying the nearly 40 points with Wisconsin. If I get burned on a backdoor cover so be it. But this one won’t be close and it’s just a matter of when the Badgers will take their foot off the gas in the second half. Hopefully it’s well after they have a cover in hand.
THE PICK: WISCONSIN –39.5

South Carolina @ Mississippi State, 12:20PM ET
The Bulldogs have been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments after winning nine games a season ago. They started the year ranked in the top 20 but have quickly faded from memory. While South Carolina has one of the most feared running back-receiver duos in the country courtesy of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey, I think this is the one day Mississippi State raises its game and pulls off the upset. The Gamecocks had to suffer through some turmoil early this week when Stephen Garcia was finally given the boot and now they have to hit the road against a SEC opponent looking for one signature victory to turn their season around. I think the Bulldogs get that victory here, although take the field goal as insurance.
THE PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE +3

Oklahoma State @ Texas, 3:30PM ET
Last Saturday was the first time all year that Texas faced an offense that could put points on the board and the Longhorns were absolutely crushed by high-powered Oklahoma. Even though they return to Austin this week, things don’t get any easier for Mack Brown and Co. The Cowboys own the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense, averaging more than 51 points per game. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon should have a field day against a Texas secondary that was lit up by Landry Jones last weekend. Even though the Longhorns hold a 14-2 advantage over the Cowboys in Austin, I think it’s going to be a long day for Texas.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE –7

Idaho @ New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
For my “Who cares?” pick of the week, I’m going with the Vandals, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six trips to New Mexico State and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Aggies. The road team is also 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two squads while the underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 overall meetings. For whatever reason this game stood out to be as a mistake by the oddsmakers (not that they make mistakes). I like Idaho to roll.
THE PICK: IDAHO +1

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

If you haven’t hopped on this gravy train yet then shame on you because these picks are crashing and burning on a weekly basis now. After my 1-2-1 effort in Week 5, my season record is 10-8-2 but I’m now 4-7-1 over the past three weeks. It’s only a matter of time before that season record of mine gets below .500 and I’m providing true “Fade Material.”

Here are my picks for Week 6. I see a couple of backdoor covers and one underdog that should be down by 21 points by the end of the first quarter…

Florida State @ Wake Forest, 12:30PM ET
The Seminoles are having a hell of a time trying to run the ball (they’re 115th in the nation in rushing offense) and injuries are starting to mount for FSU. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has won three straight games for the first time since 2007 and quarterback Tanner Price is off to the best four-game start in school history (1,119 yards). The ‘Noles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Demon Deacons, while the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
THE PICK: WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS +10

Florida @ LSU, 3:30PM ET
It’s going to be a long day for freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel, who is subbing for the injured Jeff Brantley in Baton Rouge today. LSU is allowing just 12.8 points per game and is coming off a game in which it allowed just 155 total yards in a win over Kentucky. The Gators are just 2-6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games. I doubt LSU will roll but I don’t envision Florida scoring more than 10 points.
THE PICK: LSU TIGERS –13

Vanderbilt @ Alabama, 7:00PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this weekend but I don’t care. Vanderbilt is heading in the right direction under first-year coach James Franklin but very little is going to slow down this ‘Bama team from making a run at the national championship. The Tide are 15-1 all-time against Vanderbilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is outscoring opponents 45-8 in the fourth quarter this season. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t let up and even though this is a huge point spread, I like ‘Bama to produce a blowout for homecoming week in Tuscaloosa.
THE PICK: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -29

Colorado @ Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Oddsmakers keep jacking up the point spread on Stanford and the Cardinal keeps covering. Thus, there’s no reason to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon now. Stanford is 6-0-1 against the number in their last seven conference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or greater.
THE PICK: STANFORD CARDINAL -29

Last Week: 1-2-1
Season: 10-8-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.