I’ve been on a roll of late, going 8-0 straight up the last two weeks and 7-1 against the spread. Let’s hope I didn’t just pour a big cup of jinx over everything this week.

No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama, 3:30PM ET
A win this week secures the SEC West title for Alabama, while a victory for LSU puts them in the driver’s seat in the West, as well as keeps their national title hopes alive. While they eventually won the game thanks to a blocked field goal, there were some glaring issues with Alabama’s passing game in their victory over Tennessee two weeks ago. Mark Ingram is one of the best players in college football, but he can’t be expected to carry the offense week in and week out. Quarterback Greg McElroy must become more efficient in the passing game and test defenses vertically more than he has. The Tide beat the Tigers last year, but they had previously lost five straight to LSU so that’s a concern for Nick Saban. I don’t think the Tigers have enough offense to overcome the Tide’s No. 4 ranked defense, but this game is going to be close throughout and this might be another contest that isn’t decided for ‘Bama until the final seconds.
Odds: Alabama –7.5.
Prediction: Alabama 16, LSU 13.

No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State, 3:30PM ET
This was supposed to be the game that decided things in the Big Ten. But with how well Iowa has played this year, one of these two teams will likely be knocked out of contention with a loss. It’s hard to imagine that OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor will walk into Beaver Stadium the way that he has struggled this year and beat a good Penn State defense…with his arm. Pryor isn’t going to win this game throwing for 250 yards (does he ever throw for 250 yards?), but if he can keep the chains moving with his legs and not turn the ball over, I bet Ohio State wins this game with its defense. This is going to be your classic Big Ten defensive struggle and the Buckeyes are due to pull off an upset of this magnitude. Penn State knocked off Ohio State last year on its home turf, and I’m calling for the Buckeyes to return the favor this season.
Odds: Penn State –3.5
Prediction: Ohio State 17, Penn State 16.

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No. 5 USC at No. 10 Oregon, 8:00PM ET ABC
The game of the week is in Eugene this Saturday, as the Ducks host the Trojans in a battle for Pac-10 supremacy. The last time the Trojans traveled to Eugene, they were beaten 24-17 and if they don’t want to suffer defeat again this year, they better sure up their defense. Oregon ranks 14th in the nation in rushing and could take advantage of an aggressive USC front four that doesn’t always play disciplined. Running back LaMichael James has enough burst to bounce runs outside if the Trojans’ defensive ends are too quick to crash inside in efforts to take away runs between the tackles. On the flip side, Oregon’s O-line must protect quarterback Jeremiah Masoli better or else the Ducks’ passing game could be non-existent. Although the Trojans’ offense is starting to take shape under freshman Matt Barkley, Oregon has the sixth best pass efficiency defense in the country and are holding opponents to less than 17 points a game. I like the home team getting points in this matchup and am calling the outright upset.
Odds: USC –3.5.
Prediction: Oregon 27, USC 24.

No. 3 Texas at No. 14 Oklahoma State, 8:00PM ET
When I first looked at the point spread for this game, I was surprised to see that a good Oklahoma State team was getting nine points at home. But history doesn’t favor the Cowboys in this matchup and the Longhorns definitely have the overall edge. Although OK State has had its opportunities over the years, Texas has won the last 11 games in this matchup and Colt McCoy has owned the Cowboy defense. He has completed 79.4 percent of his passes for 1,019 yards and is 3-0 lifetime against OK State, including owning a 38-35 win in Stillwater in 2007. The Cowboys have won five straight, but they’ve feasted on teams like Rice, Grambling State, Baylor and inconsistent squads like Texas A&M and Missouri. This is a game that should be close throughout, but I actually like Texas to earn a sound victory. No. 2 Alabama is idle this week and the Longhorns will take this opportunity to thump a quality opponent in order to prove to the voters that they deserved to be ranked higher.
Odds: Texas –9.
Prediction: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 20.

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No. 1 Florida at Mississippi State, 7:30PM ET
After a hard-fought win over LSU two weeks ago and a gift-wrapped (courtesy of the officials) victory over Arkansas last week, Florida will try to remain undefeated against a Mississippi State team that has had the Gators’ number in Starkville. Florida has dropped their last four games in Starkville and hasn’t won there since 1985. The Gators are too good defensively for the Bulldogs to pull off an upset, but with Florida’s lack of offensive firepower, Mississippi State will keep this game close until the end. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen is a former offensive coordinator at Florida, so his knowledge of the Gators’ program will aid him on Saturday but in the end, Mississippi State doesn’t have enough depth to beat Florida this season. Tim Tebow and company haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, so I like the Bulldogs to cover.
Odds: Florida –22.5
Prediction: Florida 27, Mississippi State 13.

No. 13 Penn State at Michigan, 3:30PM ET
The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Ann Arbor since 1996, which is why the point spread is so low in this matchup. But Penn State has won three straight by a combined score of 107-20 since their home loss to Iowa and they’ll be looking for a measure of revenge against a Michigan team that has had their number on the road. The Wolverines are too inconsistent on offense to hang with the Lions for four quarters, especially if they have trouble running the ball against PSU’s solid front seven. Offensively for the Nittany Lions, Evan Royster and Darryl Clark will keep the chains moving against a Michigan defense that has trouble getting off the field on third down. This won’t be a blow out because it’s in Ann Arbor, but Penn State will continue its winning ways.
Odds: Penn State –4.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Michigan 13.

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No. 20 Oklahoma at No. 3 Texas, 12:00PM ET
It’s kind of a shame that this game is on at Noon on Saturday because it deserves primetime attention. Texas upset top ranked Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry last year, but it’ll be hard for the Sooners to return the favor this season. Sam Bradford’s receivers didn’t help him in his return to action last week, dropping at least 10 passes. A fierce Texas pass rush could overwhelm Oklahoma’s inexperienced offensive line and force Bradford to unload the ball sooner than he wants to. Given how the Sooners’ front seven frustrated him last year, Colt McCoy could struggle as well, but I like the home team to win in what should be an emotional game.
Odds: Texas –3.
Prediction: Texas 33, Oklahoma 27.

No. 22 South Carolina at No. 2 Alabama, 7:45PM ET
Although the Gamecocks pose a threat with their defensive front seven, the Crimson Tide are the most complete team in the nation and should wear South Carolina down in the second half. The Gamecocks simply don’t have the horses up front to move ‘Bama’s front four at the point of attack and if South Carolina can’t stay balanced offensively, Stephen Garcia will struggle. It’s going to be hard for SC to move the ball on the ground against a talented Alabama linebacker corps and therefore Garcia should face plenty of third-and-longs. Some believe the Gamecocks will keep this one close, but after struggling at home last week against Kentucky, I see South Carolina getting rolled this weekend in a tough environment.
Odds: Alabama –17.
Prediction: Alabama 35, South Carolina 14.

No. 11 Iowa at Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
The point spread in this game doesn’t make any sense. Why is a ranked Iowa team a 2.5-point underdog on the road against an unranked Wisconsin team that they’ve beaten in five of their last seven meetings? The Badgers’ best attribute is that they can run the ball (they’re gaining just over 200 yards per game on the ground), but the Hawkeyes are solid defensively, ranking 31 in the nation in total defense. So what gives? Simply put, Iowa has not looked great this season despite being undefeated. They will enter a hostile Camp Randall Stadium and could have trouble moving the ball offensively against a Wisconsin defense that swarms to the football. After being unable to get on track last Saturday against Ohio State, running backs John Clay and Zach Brown should carry the Badgers this week to an upset win. (If you can even all it an upset given that Wisconsin is favored.)
Odds: Wisconsin –2.5.
Prediction: Wisconsin 28, Iowa 24.

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No. 4 LSU at No. 18 Georgia, 3:30PM ET
Last year, Georgia rolled into Tiger Stadium and laid a 52-38 beat down on LSU as they forced three turnovers and running back Knowshon Moreno (now a Denver Bronco) racked up 163 yards on 21 carries. After an ugly 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State in the opening week of the season, the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight wins and will now face a Tiger team that struggled a bit offensively last week in a narrow 30-26 win over Mississippi State. LSU was outgained 374-263 and only rushed for 30 yards in the victory. The Tigers usually feast on pro-style offenses, so UGA quarterback Joe Cox can’t force throws in attempt to make something happen down field. That said, the Tigers haven’t been tested yet and needed a goal line stand to pull off the win last week. Georgia, on the other hand, has already faced a ranked OK State team and beaten competitive SEC foes South Carolina and Arkansas. The Bulldogs are more battle tested and will overcome a stiff Tiger defense.
Odds: Georgia –3.
Prediction: Georgia 24, LSU 20.

No. 7 USC at No. 24 California, 8:00PM ET
Don’t everyone break your legs jumping off the Cal bandwagon after Oregon smacked the Golden Bears 42-3 last week. Heisman candidate Jahvid Best rushed for only 55 yards in the loss and will face another tough challenge this week against a USC defense that held him to only 30 yards last season. The Trojans have the sixth best defense in the nation and the fifth best scoring defense. They have limited opponents to only 59.5 rushing yards per game and only 95 YPC threw the air. That said, Cal has played USC close over the years and the Trojans have kept things rather conservative offensively with freshman Matt Barkley under center. I see this game being close, although I don’t know if Kevin Riley can beat USC through the air if the Trojans’ front seven takes away Best.
Odds: USC –4.5.
Prediction: USC 20, Cal 17.

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Here are my picks for Week 4 in college football.

Last week I went 3-1 straight up and just 1-3 against the spread, so gamblers – fade at will. (By the way, those are also my season totals because I didn’t make picks for the first two weeks, although I probably would have gone 8-0 so feel free to give me the undeserved credit.)

Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
Arkansas certainly has an offense capable of hanging with most opponents given the vertical weapons they have in Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams in the passing game. But ‘Bama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart should throw a variety of looks at Razorback signal caller Ryan Mallett and use blitzes to help generate a rush. The Tide lack a pass-rushing presence on their defensive line, but their secondary is experienced and should handle whatever Bobby Petrino throws at them on Saturday. I expect ‘Bama to take away Michael Smith, Broderick Green, Ronnie Wingo and the Arkansas’ running game and force the Razorbacks to become one-dimensional. With Julio Jones expected back this week after missing last Saturday with a knee injury, the Razorback defense could be in trouble. ‘Bama will look to take control of this game in the second half with a balanced offensive approach and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Odds: Alabama –17.5.
Prediction: Alabama 41, Arkansas 20.

No. 9 Miami at No. 11 Virginia Tech, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
The Canes are quickly becoming one of the more talked about programs in the nation this year courtesy of quarterback Jacory Harris. Thanks to an improved pass protection and his ability to see the entire field, Harris played exceptionally well in Miami’s wins over ranked opponents Florida State and Georgia Tech, respectively. But the key to a Canes’ victory will be running the ball to set up Harris and the passing game. Frank Beamer’s squad has not done a good job of stopping the run so far this season and if Miami can get versatile running backs Javarris James and Graig Cooper some running room early on, they might set up Harris to make big plays in the passing game. Defensively, Miami could be burned by Tyrod Taylor’s running ability if it doesn’t stay disciplined when shooting gaps. Taylor, who has been more patient as a passer this season, needs to use his legs if he sees that the Canes are too aggressive up front. Miami must also contain running back Ryan Williams, who has been excellent filling in for the injured Darren Evans. While Blacksburg is one of the toughest places to play in college football, Randy Shannon has his team playing with a swagger and they won’t be intimated on the road. This is going to be a thrilling game and one that might come down to the wire. I’m going with the hot team, however, and predict a win for Miami.
Odds: Miami –2.5.
Prediction: Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20.

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Tennessee (1-1) at No. 1 Florida (2-0), 3:30PM ET
Don’t think for a second that Urban Meyer won’t be extra motivated for this game after Lane Kiffin accused him of violating NCAA recruiting rules back in February. Kiffin better hope that his power running game will help keep this one close, because Florida’s defense is going to terrorize quarterback Jonathan Crompton if Tennessee becomes too one-dimensional. Crompton made several poor decisions last week in UT’s loss to UCLA, a game in which he threw three interceptions. If he turns the ball over against the Gators, this game will be out of reach by halftime. Of course, if Monte Kiffin’s defense can generate some pressure on Tim Tebow, the Vols could make things interesting. But so far, Kiffin hasn’t gotten much production out of his front four and it has forced him to blitz in order to get pressure. Tebow will recognize that and pick UT’s defense apart. This one could get ugly.
Odds: Florida -30
Prediction: Florida 41, Tennessee 10.

Texas Tech (2-0) at No. 2 Texas (2-0), 8:00PM ET
Mack Brown still has nightmares of Michael Crabtree scoring the winning touchdown in last year’s thriller in Lubbock. But Crabtree and Graham Harrell have both moved on and although Raiders quarterback Taylor Potts (861 yards, 9 TDs) is off to a great start this year, it’s hard to imagine that Tech will pull off the upset this year. Colt McCoy won’t allow Texas to lose at home and the Longhorn back seven is too good to let Potts to beat them for four quarters.
Odds: Texas -17.5
Prediction: Texas 52, Texas Tech 28.

No. 23 Georgia at Arkansas, 7:45PM ET
The last time these two teams met was back in October of 2005 when the Dawgs barely edged the Razorbacks 23-20 in Athens. Bobby Petrino’s team is fresh coming off a bye week (which followed an easy 48-10 victory over FCS foe Missouri State), while Georgia fought tooth and nail for their 41-37 win over South Carolina. Petrino admitted that the Razorbacks have been game planning for this matchup since August and he even held senior Michael Smith to only four carries in the win over Missouri State so that the running back would be fresh for this week’s matchup vs. UGA. The Dawgs have given up 61 points in their first two outings and considering Arkansas’s offense is starting to come together under Petrino, I see the Razorbacks securing a nice home win.
Odds: Arkansas -1
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Georgia 28.

West Virginia at Auburn, 7:45PM ET
The Tigers will be seeking a measure of revenge after the Mountaineers soundly beat them in Morgantown last year. Although both teams have started off the season on the right foot, West Virginia could have a hard time corralling Auburn running backs Brandon Tate and Onterio McCalebb. The duo has combined to rush for over 530 yards in two games and will provide a challenge that the Mountaineers’ run-defense didn’t receive in their first two games. As long as the Auburn defense can contain Noel Devine and senior quarterback Jarrett Brown, they should be able to get their revenge on West Virginia and start the ’09 season 3-0.
Odds: Auburn -7
Prediction: Auburn 38, West Virginia 24.

Top 25 vs. Top 25

No. 1 Alabama at No. 16 LSU, 3:30 PM ET Saturday
Nick Saban doesn’t want the focus to be on him this week and for good reason since he spurned LSU a few years ago to go fail in the NFL. That storyline might be a little overrated though, because it’s doubtful the current Tiger players Saban recruited care much about beating him on Saturday. They’ll have more motivation beating a hated rival and knocking off the No. 1 team in the nation. ‘Bama has had issues playing four full quarters all season – will this be the week they finally play a full game and soundly beat a quality opponent? Or will LSU sustain the Tide’s initial punch and come through in the second half? This game is what SEC football is all about and we should expect nothing more than a close, physical matchup that comes down to the wire, even though Alabama has the superior team.

No. 12 TCU at No. 8 Utah, 8:00 PM ET Thursday
The Horned Frogs have the opportunity to knock off yet another MWC foe out of BCS title contention this Saturday when they pay a trip to Utah. TCU has held its previous five opponents to only 8.4 points per game and have also limited eight foes to a 2008 season low in yards, which is the most of any team in Division I football. Pundits love what the Frogs bring to the table defensively, but the Utes have plenty to offer themselves. Utah has held four of its opponents to season lows in yardage and has won nine in a row at home. They’ve also beaten TCU the past two meetings and obviously have a ton to play for.

No. 11 Ohio State at No. 24 Northwestern, 12:00 PM ET
The Wildcats got a lot of people’s attention last week when they pulled off a miracle upset of Minnesota in the final seconds of the game. But Ohio State has had over a week to stew about the loss to Penn State and they’ve had a ton of success against Northwestern over the past couple of years. The Buckeyes have allowed just 23 total points the past three games and it’s highly doubtful backup quarterback Mike Kakfa puts together back-to-back solid performances. It’ll be interesting to see how freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor rebounds after his crucial fumble played a big role in OSU’s loss to the Nittany Lions.

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 2 Texas Tech, 8:00 PM ET, Saturday
It’s no wonder why people keep talking about the Big 12 being the superior conference this season when it keeps churning out fantastic matchups like this every week. Tech had zero time to celebrate its win over Texas last week because the Cowboys offer another potential roadblock to the Raiders’ BCS title hopes. Much like last week, this game features a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback in Graham Harrell and Zac Robinson. Can Tech continue to post 500 yards of offense every game or will Mike Leach’s team eventually stumble? OK State hasn’t won in Lubbock since 1944, but the Cowboys have played very well on the road under Mike Gundy and are hoping a win could elevate their BCS status after they hung tough with Texas a few weeks ago. Can the Raiders play as well defensively as they did last week against the Longhorns or will yet another top 5 team get picked off?

No. 21 California at No. 7 USC, 8:00 PM ET, Saturday
Many pundits have had this game circled as one where the Trojans could potentially fall victim to an upset. The Bears usually play USC close and fought the Trojans to the final whistle last year before losing by only a touchdown. USC struggled a bit last week in Arizona, but are incredibly tough to beat at the Coliseum. Maybe head coach Pete Carroll will call upon “Captain Compete” to rally his team again before the game.

No. 20 Georgia Tech at No. 19 North Carolina, 12:00 PM ET, Saturday
The Yellow Jackets struggled again last week but managed to knock off Florida State with a last second field goal after a goal line stop and a fumble recovery in the end zone (thank you reader GTA for the correction). Tech is 9-1 against the Heels in their last 10 meetings, but UNC has 17 interceptions on the season, which ties them for the most in the nation. The key in this game will be whether or not the Heels can stop Tech’s relentless ground attack for four quarters. If the Jackets find success on the ground, there will be no reason to put the ball in the air often and risk turning the ball over to a ball-hawking UNC defense.

Other Notable Games:

No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa, 3:30 PM ET, Saturday
Those fans that don’t want to see another Big Ten team play for a national championship will be watching this game with hopes that the Hawkeyes can pull off a huge upset. The Lions probably won’t faced another ranked team the rest of the way, although Iowa and Michigan State are no pushovers. PSU is coming off a bye week – will they come out flat or determine after moving down in the rankings?

No. 21 West Virginia (1-1, 0-1 Away) at Colorado (2-0, 2-0 Home)

Kickoff: 8:30 PM ET ESPN
Point Spread: West Virginia –3

West Virginia Outlook:
The Mountaineers had off last week following their upset loss to East Carolina in Week 2. Head coach Bill Stewart has noted that he wants to get back to running more basic zone option plays after Pat White and the WVU had their worst offensive performance in seven years, managing only a field goal in the loss to ECU. Simplifying things for the offense might make sense, especially considering the Mountaineers will make their first ever trip to Folsom Field.

Colorado Outlook:
The Buffaloes are 2-0 to start the season, but they had to rally to beat FCS opponent Eastern Washington two weeks ago. With freshman running back Darrell Scott and scrappy sophomore quarterback Cody Hawkins, Colorado has a ton of youth in its offense backfield. Hawkins is off to a great start, throwing for 475 yards and four touchdowns in two games this season, as well as compiling a QB rating of 144.93. Hawkins might find some success throwing against a WVU secondary that ranks 85th in pass efficiency.

Prediction:
Before the disastrous performance against ECU two weeks ago, White threw for 208 yards and five touchdowns against Villanova in the team’s opener. He probably won’t attempt 33 passes Thursday night in Colorado with Stewart wanting to scale back the offense, but that’s a good thing. The Buffs see plenty of the spread offense playing in the Big 12, but aren’t used to the zone option tactics that WVU will throw at them tonight. White should be able to break off a big run or two and as long as the WVU defense can at least contain the young duo in the Buffs’ backfield, they should be able to bounce back from their Week 2 loss against the Pirates. West Virginia 38, Colorado 30.

Kickoff: Friday @ 8:00 PM ET, ESPN 2
Records: Kansas (2-0); South Florida (2-0)
Spread: South Florida –3.5

Game Matchup:
Kansas marches its 30th ranked (and highly powerful) offense into Tampa Friday night, but South Florida has the top ranked defense in the nation. South Florida’s defense ends are used to getting a good edge rush, but Jayhawks’ QB Todd Reesing gets the ball out of his hands quickly so he might be able to neutralize what the Bulls’ defense do so well. With how aggressive USF’s defensive front is, Kansas might employ a gash n’ go approach with its running backs. The Jayhawks could allow the Bulls’ defensive ends to get up field, and then the Kansas RBs can run at the edges for big gains. The Jayhawks also excel at avoiding bad down-and-distance situations. Offensively for South Florida, QB Matt Grothe isn’t as accurate as Reesing, but he makes plays with his feet and keeps drives alive with his mobility.

Prediction:
South Florida’s defense is outstanding, but Kansas has the weapons on offense to exploit what the Bulls do best. For the Jayhawks, coming out with a victory depends on how well their defense can contain Grothe and get off the field on third downs. This is a great machup and should be a close game throughout. Kansas 30, South Florida 28.