Technically I went 2-2 last Saturday but I did produce this gem, which was worth another win in my eyes:

My 2-2 effort last week puts me at 21-13-2 ATS for the season. Again, chances are two of these four picks will be winners while two will be losers. Soooo, have fun with that.

My two winners? Iowa (+4) and UCLA (+8.5). My two losers? Alabama (-4.5) and Texas A&M (+14).

My latest .500 week puts me at 23-15-2 on the season and once again, if you can figure out which two picks will hit and which two won’t, you’ll have a 4-0 Saturday. It’s like a game. A twisted, nauseating game.

Nebraska @ Penn State, 12:00PM ET
One of two things are going to happen this week at University Park. Either Penn State is going to play the most inspired football of the season or the Jerry Sandusky/Joe Paterno fiasco is going to bury them. I’m banking on the latter, which is why I’m riding the brutal-against-the-spread Huskers this week. Nebraska will be fired up and while Penn State may show plenty of emotion at the start, I think they’ll run out of steam eventually.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA –3.5

Michigan @ Illinois, 3:30PM ET
I’m going right back to the well in picking against Michigan. Outside of trouncing Northwestern, the Wolverines have played poorly in two of their three road games this season. While Illinois is going backwards, this is a good opportunity for the Illini to snap their current three-game losing streak. They also seem to play Michigan tough, which is supported by their 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games these two teams have met.
THE PICK: ILLINOIS –1

Louisiana Tech @ Ole Miss, 7:30PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this week but I really love this matchup. Some bettors will look at this game and all they’ll see is the WAC vs. the SEC, and the fact that Ole Miss is getting points at home. But in some respects, this is the Bulldogs’ season. They take down a SEC opponent on the road and regardless of whether or not they catch Nevada, their season will be a success. As for the Rebels, will their hearts even be in this one? They’ve been terrible all year and now they have a non-conference game that means absolutely nothing to them. Even though LA Tech is favored, I like the Dogs in an “upset.”
THE PICK: LOUISIANA TECH –2

Hawaii @ Nevada, 10:15PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this week. Hawaii has had issues coming to the mainland, as evidence of its embarrassing 40-20 loss to UNLV in Week 3. UNLV is one of the worst teams in college football this season and it steamrolled a Warrior team that was a 17-point favorite. Nevada is 4-1 against the spread in its last five home games against Hawaii and the home squad is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. I hate that the line is a full point and a half above the key number of 14 but I like the Wolf Pack anyway.
THE PICK: NEVADA -15

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

If you can’t trust a Vandal, whom can you trust?

Idaho cost me an opportunity for back-to-back 4-0 Saturdays by failing to score at the goal line in the closing seconds against New Mexico State. A touchdown and PAT would have sent the game into overtime while giving the Vandals (+1) a chance to cover. But realizing that if they won I would be 8-0 in the last two weeks, Idaho threw the game, stalled out on fourth down and handed me a 3-1 record. The nerve!

Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State (thanks to Steve Spurrier, who took a safety to run the clock out last week, allowing the 3-point underdog Bulldog team to cover) were winners last week, while Idaho was my lone loser. That runs my season record to 17-9-2.

Arkansas @ Mississippi, 12:20PM ET
Houston Nutt’s football team has issues. Ole Miss ranks 11th in the SEC in total offense and 12th in total defense, which isn’t a good sign with Arkansas coming to town. Razorbacks’ quarterback Tyler Wilson ranks second in the SEC in passing efficiently and total offense, leading a passing attack that averages 336.8 yards through the air. Wilson has too many weapons to use against an overmatched Rebels defense. Arkansas is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games against Ole Miss, which is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS –15.5

Air Force @ Boise State, 3:30PM ET
This one could be a bloodbath if Boise State doesn’t get in its own way. The Falcons lead the Mountain West in total offense and rushing offense, but their defense will have a tough time slowing Kellen Moore, who has now thrown for 120 career touchdown passes. Boise State has won its last two games by a combined 100 points, which is the exact number Air Force has allowed over its last two outings. I just don’t think the Falcons can keep pace if the Broncos start to roll.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE –29.5

Tennessee @ Alabama, 7:15PM ET
With LSU coming up next Saturday, this could very well be a trap game for Alabama, although either way Tennessee still has to figure out a way to score without Tyler Bray under center. Matt Simms was a small disaster last week at home against LSU while completing just six passes and throwing two interceptions. Thus, how well do you think he’ll fare this Saturday on the road in Tuscaloosa? Even if Trent Richardson and the ‘Bama offense doesn’t get rolling until the second half, I don’t envision Simms figuring out Tide’s stingy defense.
THE PICK: ALABAMA –30

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma, 8:00PM ET
I realize the Red Raiders lost their last two games but they also played Texas A&M and Kansas State – two top 20 teams. For Oklahoma to be giving up four touchdowns after the way it played last Saturday in Kansas (a rather sloppy performance despite the 47-17 score) is a little surprising. True, Tech’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed right now. But led by Seth Doege, their offense usually hangs with opponents. If the Sooners have as much trouble in the red zone on Saturday as they did last weekend in Kansas, I like Tech to cover.
THE PICK: TEXAS TECH +28.5

Last Week: 3-1
Season Record: 17-9-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

Well I’ll be a son of monkey’s uncle: I had my first 4-0 Saturday of the year last week. Never thought I’d see the day.

I ate that chalk like it was no tomorrow with picks of Alabama (-29), Stanford (-29) and LSU (-13), but they all covered somewhat easily. My best pick wound up being a 10-point dog in Wake Forest, which won outright at home against Florida State. That pushes my season record to 14-8-2, which can only mean one thing: A 0-4 Saturday is right around the corner…

Indiana @ Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
This is one of those games when you look at the line and say, “Thirty-nine and a half points? Indiana is getting 39.5 points? Oh, they have to cover that spread. All they need to do is show up!” Then you check the score two minutes in and it’s already 14-0 Wisconsin and they’re lining up to kick a field goal to add to their lead. The last time these two teams met, the Badgers put up 83 points on the Hoosiers in Indiana, without Russell Wilson under center. So no, I don’t mind laying the nearly 40 points with Wisconsin. If I get burned on a backdoor cover so be it. But this one won’t be close and it’s just a matter of when the Badgers will take their foot off the gas in the second half. Hopefully it’s well after they have a cover in hand.
THE PICK: WISCONSIN –39.5

South Carolina @ Mississippi State, 12:20PM ET
The Bulldogs have been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments after winning nine games a season ago. They started the year ranked in the top 20 but have quickly faded from memory. While South Carolina has one of the most feared running back-receiver duos in the country courtesy of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey, I think this is the one day Mississippi State raises its game and pulls off the upset. The Gamecocks had to suffer through some turmoil early this week when Stephen Garcia was finally given the boot and now they have to hit the road against a SEC opponent looking for one signature victory to turn their season around. I think the Bulldogs get that victory here, although take the field goal as insurance.
THE PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE +3

Oklahoma State @ Texas, 3:30PM ET
Last Saturday was the first time all year that Texas faced an offense that could put points on the board and the Longhorns were absolutely crushed by high-powered Oklahoma. Even though they return to Austin this week, things don’t get any easier for Mack Brown and Co. The Cowboys own the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense, averaging more than 51 points per game. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon should have a field day against a Texas secondary that was lit up by Landry Jones last weekend. Even though the Longhorns hold a 14-2 advantage over the Cowboys in Austin, I think it’s going to be a long day for Texas.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE –7

Idaho @ New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
For my “Who cares?” pick of the week, I’m going with the Vandals, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six trips to New Mexico State and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Aggies. The road team is also 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two squads while the underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 overall meetings. For whatever reason this game stood out to be as a mistake by the oddsmakers (not that they make mistakes). I like Idaho to roll.
THE PICK: IDAHO +1

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

If you haven’t hopped on this gravy train yet then shame on you because these picks are crashing and burning on a weekly basis now. After my 1-2-1 effort in Week 5, my season record is 10-8-2 but I’m now 4-7-1 over the past three weeks. It’s only a matter of time before that season record of mine gets below .500 and I’m providing true “Fade Material.”

Here are my picks for Week 6. I see a couple of backdoor covers and one underdog that should be down by 21 points by the end of the first quarter…

Florida State @ Wake Forest, 12:30PM ET
The Seminoles are having a hell of a time trying to run the ball (they’re 115th in the nation in rushing offense) and injuries are starting to mount for FSU. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has won three straight games for the first time since 2007 and quarterback Tanner Price is off to the best four-game start in school history (1,119 yards). The ‘Noles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Demon Deacons, while the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
THE PICK: WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS +10

Florida @ LSU, 3:30PM ET
It’s going to be a long day for freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel, who is subbing for the injured Jeff Brantley in Baton Rouge today. LSU is allowing just 12.8 points per game and is coming off a game in which it allowed just 155 total yards in a win over Kentucky. The Gators are just 2-6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games. I doubt LSU will roll but I don’t envision Florida scoring more than 10 points.
THE PICK: LSU TIGERS –13

Vanderbilt @ Alabama, 7:00PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this weekend but I don’t care. Vanderbilt is heading in the right direction under first-year coach James Franklin but very little is going to slow down this ‘Bama team from making a run at the national championship. The Tide are 15-1 all-time against Vanderbilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is outscoring opponents 45-8 in the fourth quarter this season. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t let up and even though this is a huge point spread, I like ‘Bama to produce a blowout for homecoming week in Tuscaloosa.
THE PICK: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -29

Colorado @ Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Oddsmakers keep jacking up the point spread on Stanford and the Cardinal keeps covering. Thus, there’s no reason to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon now. Stanford is 6-0-1 against the number in their last seven conference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or greater.
THE PICK: STANFORD CARDINAL -29

Last Week: 1-2-1
Season: 10-8-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

I finished with my first .500 week in college football last Saturday, as I went 2-2 with my predictions. Stanford and Army (who won outright over Northwestern as a 6-point dog) were winners, while Auburn and Ohio State failed to show up. I’m still 8-3-1 on the year, which I’ll certainly take.

Florida State @ Clemson, 3:30PM ET
The home team is 11-2 against the spread in the last 13 meetings between these two teams, while the Seminoles are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Tigers and 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games versus Clemson. Florida State is also just 1-5 against the number in their last six conference games and with the line set at 2.5, I like Clemson to win by at least a field goal.
THE PICK: CLEMSON -2.5

Arkansas @ Alabama, 3:30PM ET
The Razorbacks are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 conference games and 4-1 in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five games in September and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. I like Arkansas to give ‘Bama a game today and keep the score within 10 points.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS +11

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Everyone seems to be hyper-cautious these days, so Boise State is holding back three players from tomorrow night’s showdown with Georgia at the Georgia Dome.

The Broncos announced in a brief statement Friday that senior safety Cedric Febis, sophomore defensive tackle Ricky Tjong-a-Tjoe and sophomore wide receiver Geraldo Boldewijn had not accompanied the team to Atlanta.

“The three are being held out of the game due to a review of their NCAA eligibility,” the statement read. “The review is not academic or violation of team rules.”

The three players all have a few noteworthy things in common. The first is that all three are originally from Amsterdam, the Netherlands, where they each played for local football club teams before coming to the U.S. All three played for prep high schools in Boise before joining the Broncos.

The second is that all three are expected to be major contributors for the Broncos this season. A fifth-year senior, Febis was in line to earn a starting safety position following the graduation of Jeron Johnson. He is likely to be replaced by redshirt freshman Jeremy Ioane.

The spread has moved from Boise State by 3.5 to Boise by 3.

ESPN Insider also has a great article about how Aaron Murray is as good as Kellen Moore. One thing to keep in mind is that Murray will be behind a veteran offensive line and Moore will be playing behind three new starters. I remember Mel Kiper making the point that the experience of the offensive line was one of the best predictors of success for a college football team. This should be a great game but I think Georgia might pull this one out.

After a brutal off-season, college football gets back to business tonight with a bunch of games. Looking at the college football lines, however, we won’t get many great games tonight.

Wisconsin is known for its cupcake schedule in non-conference games, and they get started tonight against UNLV as a 35.5 point favorite. To their credit, they’ve added Oregon State as their second game.

Tomorrow night we have a decent game with TCU as a 4-point road favorite against Baylor.

Then on Saturday we have a ton of games, with Oregon as a 4-point favorite against LSU at Cowboys Stadium and Boise State as a 3.5-point favorite against Georgia in the Georgia Dome as the featured battles.

No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 19 South Carolina, 4:00PM ET
About midway through the second quarter of last week’s Auburn-Alabama game, every college football fan around the nation was wondering how things would play out in the BCS once the Tigers lost. Then Cam Newton found his Superman cape and promptly led Auburn to its greatest comeback of the season. But it was nothing new for the Tigers, who have trailed many times before in big games throughout the year, only to rally and put the clamps on their opponents in the fourth quarter. One of those rallies came against South Carolina earlier this season when they trailed 20-7 midway through the second. The Tigers went on to score two touchdowns and blanked the Gamecocks in the fourth to win, 35-27. Now the two schools meet in the SEC Championship and Auburn will once again put its national title hopes on the line. It’s pretty simple: Win and play for a national championship or lose and hope that TCU still disgusts voters.
CURRENT ODDS: AUBURN -5

No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Nebraska, 8:00PM ET
Nebraska hasn’t won a Big 12 title since 1999 and with its move to the Big Ten next year, this will be the Huskers’ final chance to win one. They’ve have an opportunity on Saturday to avenge their 13-12 loss to Texas in last year’s Big 12 title game, a heartbreaking defeat that still is on Bo Pelini’s mind. Oklahoma earned a meeting with Nebraska thanks to its wild 47-41 victory over Oklahoma State last Saturday. The win created a three-way tie atop the South Division along with OK State and Texas A&M, but the Sooners go the nod because they were the highest ranked BCS team of the trio. Will Nebraska’s defense be able to contain Landry Jones and DeMarco Murray? Furthermore, will Taylor Martinez be healthy enough to play? He’s day-to-day with an ankle injury and even if he’s healthy enough to go, sophomore Cody Green could see some playing time.
CURRENT ODDS: OKLAHOMA -4.5

No. 21 Florida State vs. No. 15 Virginia Tech, 7:45PM ET
What a wild ride the Hokies have been on this year. They lost to Boise State 33-30 in the opener and then followed up that performance by losing to James Madison 21-16 the next week. But then Frank Beamer’s squad got it together and rattled off 10 straight to get to where they are now, which is a date with Florida State in the ACC title game. The Seminoles and Hokies have combined to win three of the five ACC championship games throughout the year. FSU has its own hot streak going, as they’ve won three in a row following a two-game skid. VA Tech’s Tyrod Taylor has gotten more accurate as a passer throughout the season, while FSU’s Christian Ponder has battled through nagging injuries and now wants a crack at the Orange Bowl. If Ponder and the Seminoles are to be victorious, they better figure out a way to score in the fourth quarter because VA Tech’s defense (which has allowed just six fourth-quarter touchdowns this season) has been outstanding in crunch time this year.
CURRENT ODDS: VIRGINIA TECH -4

No. 2 Oregon vs. Oregon State, 3:30PM ET
Oh, to be Oregon State. Not only do the Beavers have to figure out a way to slow Oregon’s explosive offense, but they’re also facing a Ducks team that can’t be too pleased that Auburn replaced them as the No. 1 team in the BCS standings last week. The plan is simple for Oregon: Beat Oregon State in the 114th edition of the Civil War and play for a national title. Lose, and then hope that TCU doesn’t leapfrog them in the rankings. But Oregon State won’t be a pushover, as a win would make the Beavers bowl eligible. Jacquizz Rodgers and company have been pesky this year against top ranked teams, so don’t assume that it’s going to be a blowout in Corvallis this weekend.
CURRENT ODDS: OREGON -16.5

2010 Championship Week Odds & Point Spreads

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No. 21 Arizona @ No. 1 Oregon, 7:00PM ET, Friday
The Ducks have come a long way but they still have two daunting tasks left in order to reach the BCS title game. The first test comes this Friday against Arizona, which leads the Pac-10 at 300.6 yards per game offensively. Nick Foles is completing a conference-high 71.0 percent of his passes and has thrown for over 600 yards with four touchdowns and just one interception in his last two games. That said, the Wildcats gave up a whopping 426 rushing yards in consecutive losses the last two weeks and are now in danger of slipping out of the top 25. Can they pull off an upset this week or is Oregon set to wrap up a second-straight Pac-10 title?
CURRENT ODDS: OREGON –19.5

No. 5 LSU @ No. 12 Arkansas, 3:30PM ET, Saturday
The Tigers are looking to claim their sixth 11-win season in school history this week, but they face a daunting task in Arkansas this Saturday. The previous five meetings between these two teams have been decided by a total of 13 points and two of the previous three outings went into overtime. LSU has limited opponents to 286.9 yards per game, which is best in the SEC. But it was their offense that earned them a wild win over Ole Miss last weekend, as quarterback Jordan Jefferson threw for a career-high 254 yards and a touchdown both through the air and on the ground. The Hogs needed overtime to beat a pesky Mississippi State team and will need a better effort out of Ryan Mallett this year against the Tigers than in 2009. He threw for just 227 yards and an interception in a 33-30 overtime loss in Baton Rouge last year.
CURRENT ODDS: ARKANSAS –3.5

No. 13 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
Usually when these two teams meet at this time of year, it’s Oklahoma playing for an opportunity to head to the Big 12 championship. But this season, it’s the Cowboys turn to play in a conference title game for the first time in school history. The Sooners have absolutely dominated the Bedlam series over the years, winning 80 of the 104 games between these two programs. But the Cowboys have a one-game lead in the Big 12 South standings and they won’t go down easy at home. This is only the fourth time in series history that OK State has been the higher ranked team. Can Brandon Weeden and company get one more win in order to play for a conference championship next weekend?
CURRENT ODDS: OKLAHOMA STATE -3

Michigan vs. No. 8 Ohio State, 12:00PM ET, Saturday
This is a nasty matchup for the Wolverines, who were absolutely hammered by a Wisconsin team last Saturday that has a lot of similarities to Ohio State. Both teams like to line up and play smash-mouth football, while Michigan prefers to win games with speed. Denard Robinson could have a hard time moving the ball against a stout Buckeye front seven. With a win, Ohio State would likely earn a BCS bowl berth (either a return trip to the Rose Bowl, should Wisconsin lose to Northwestern at home, or an at-large bid to the Sugar or Orange bowls). But they know the Wolverines won’t lay down without a fight and Michigan would love nothing more than to ruin the Buckeyes season when they have nothing to play for outside of pride.
CURRENT ODDS: OHIO STATE -17

College Football Top 25 Odds & Over/Under Totals:

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No. 8 Nebraska @ No. 19 Texas A&M, 8:00PM ET
The Aggies certainly look like a different team since the benching of preseason SEC Offensive Player of the Year Jerrod Johnson was benched for Ryan Tannehill. After three straight losses in the middle of the season, Texas A&M has won four in a row thanks to Tannehill. The Aggies will have their work cut out for them this week against Nebraska, which is 10th in the nation in scoring defense.
CURRENT ODDS: NEBRASKA –2.5

No. 9 Ohio State @ No. 20 Iowa, 3:30PM ET
The Hawkeyes are likely out of contention in the Big Ten after losing to Northwestern last Saturday. But that doesn’t mean they won’t take solace in ruining the Buckeyes’ title hopes. Ohio State needs two more wins to claim at least a share of the Big Ten title and there’s only two teams left on its schedule: Iowa and Michigan next Saturday at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes have won six of their past seven games against the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium, so they’re traveling to a place where they’ve had success in the past.
CURRENT ODDS: OHIO STATE –3

No. 16 Virginia Tech @ No. 24 Miami, 3:30PM ET
After losing to Boise State and James Madison to start the year, the Hokies have rattled off eight in a row. Now they can clinch the ACC Coastal Division on Saturday if they can beat conference rival Miami. Jacory Harris still isn’t healthy enough to suit up, so that means Stephen Morris will make his third straight start for the Hurricanes, who have won two in a row. The last time these two teams played in Miami, the Canes beat the Hokies 16-14 in 2008.
CURRENT ODDS: VIRGINIA TECH –2.5

No. 13 Arkansas @ Mississippi State, 7:00PM ET
For the second week in a row, the Bulldogs will have their hands full with a tough SEC foe. A week after losing to Alabama, Mississippi State will host an Arkansas team that ranks third in the nation in passing offense and 13th in points scored. Considering what Alabama’s Greg McElroy (227 yards, 2 TDs) did against the Bulldogs’ last week, it’s scary to think what Ryan Mallett can accomplish this week. Still, if Mississippi State can get its rushing attack back on track after being held below their average last week, the Bulldogs will make a game of it in Starkville.
CURRENT ODDS: ARKANSAS -3

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