Well, go figure. I change the name of this column to “Fade Material” and then I start handing out winning picks. If I knew that was all I had to do, I would have changed the title years ago and avoided all the years of .500 or below predictions.

After a 3-1 performance in Week 1, I finished 3-0-1 with my Week 2 picks. Georgia was a push against South Carolina but TCU, Alabama and BYU had no problems covering. I’m still looking for my first sweep of the season, so let’s see if we can’t nail it this week. (Although I admit to having reservations about “Road Test Weekend.” There are some tough games on the board…)

Auburn @ Clemson, 12:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Auburn to lose and all they’ve done the past two weeks is pull wins out of their backsides. The No. 19 Tigers find themselves once again as underdogs, this time against an unranked Clemson team. Nobody can ever quite figure out Clemson, which either plays the game of its life or sinks to the level of its competition. They’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the SEC, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Auburn is also 6-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games an underdog. I think the Tigers of Auburn keeps this within a field goal, making that 3.5-point spread highly attractive.
THE PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +3.5

Ohio State @ Miami, 7:30PM ET
The Buckeyes face their first road test under new head coach Luke Fickell and while they didn’t look particularly sharp against Toledo last week at home, I like OSU to win outright tonight. They’ll face a quarterback in Jacory Harris, who is coming off a one-game suspension and who was unimpressive against Oho State last year. He threw four interceptions, including three in the first half alone. Granted, that was a different Buckeyes team last season but the defense is still solid and I expect them to give Harris trouble again this time around. The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the number in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games in September since 1992.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +2.5

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My “Fade Material” in Week 1 actually wasn’t fade material at all, as I went 3-1 with my picks. I hit Boise State, Minnesota and Stanford, while Oregon ruined my shot at a perfect week. It’s a shame too because if you can’t trust a Duck, who can you trust?

TCU @ Air Force, 3:30PM ET
The Horned Frogs are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against Air Force and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win and 1-6 ATS in their lat seven conference games. I just don’t see TCU starting the year 0-2 and this is practically a pick’em.
THE PICK: TCU -1

Alabama @ Penn State, 3:30PM ET
The Crimson Tide are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in September. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-1 ATS in their lat five games as a favorite. ‘Bama proved last year that Penn State didn’t belong on the same field as them and while things could be different this time around with the Nittany Lions play at home, I like the Tide defense to dominate in this one.
THE PICK: ALABAMA -10

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I woke up today with an extra spring in my step because I knew it was the first Saturday of the 2011 college football season. But what really got me going was knowing I would once again be providing quality fade material for bettors around the world.

It’s about people helping people, folks.

No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU, 8:00PM ET
The last time Jarrett Lee opened a season as a starting quarterback was in 2006…for Brenham High School. LSU was going to have uncertainty at the quarterback position regardless of whether or not Lee or Jordan Jefferson was named the starter. But where the problem comes in is that Jefferson was assumed to be the starter for months. Now, just weeks before the season, they switch to Lee because of Jefferson’s off-field issues. It’s usually unwise to go against the SEC in a non-conference game but I’m not that bright so I’ll assume the risk. I think LSU’s outstanding defense will tire late in the second half after trying to keep up with Darron Thomas and LaMichael James for most of the game. The Tigers’ D figures to be on the field an awful lot tonight.
THE PICK: OREGON -3

No. 7 Boise State vs. No. 22 Georgia
All the talk in this one has revolved around Aaron Murray but I expect Kellen Moore to once again play mistake free. He has all new weapons this year but the Broncos’ offense rarely misses a beat from season to season. Never go against Boise State in their opener or in their bowl game. These types of games might as well be their freaking Super Bowl…
THE PICK: BOISE STATE -3

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Finally the tide turned for me in college football. After going 1-11 over the past three weeks, I finally stumbled into some winners last week and went 3-1. Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss were winners, while Michigan State won outright but crapped the bed against the spread.

Hopefully the darkness is behind me.

No. 2 Auburn @ No. 11 Alabama, 2:30PM ET, Friday
What an Iron Bowl matchup we have this year. For the first time in five seasons, the Tigers and Crimson Tide are both ranked heading into the season finale. Everyone knows what’s at stake for the Tigers, whose title hopes are on the line Friday in Tuscaloosa. Cam Newton has been Superman this year, but I think this is it. I think this is the day Newton lays an egg and a defense finally gets the best of him. Nick Saban is outstanding when it comes to taking away an opponents’ key player and there’s nobody more important to Auburn’s chances of victory than Newton. The Tigers have a habit of allowing opponents to hang around in the first half or worse, build a lead before stomping them in the final two quarters. But if they allow the Tide to build a lead on Friday, there may be no coming back for the Tigers. Roll Tide Roll.
THE PICK: ALABAMA -4

No. 4 Boise State @ No. 19 Nevada, 10:15PM ET, Friday
The Broncos have averaged 50 points during a 10-game winning streak over the Wolf Pack and I don’t think their fortunate runs out on Friday. Colin Kaepernick is among the nation’s leaders in total yards, averaging 308.7 per contest. There’s no question he’s a tremendous player, but Boise’s defense showed last week against Fresno State that its often overlooked by Heisman candidate Kellen Moore. The key for me in this game is this: Fresno State nearly pulled off an upset over Nevada three weeks ago in a 35-34 defeat. Boise crushed that same Fresno team last week 51-0 on the “Smurf Turf.” Granted, Fresno played Nevada at home and Boise on the road, but you catch my drift. I don’t think these two teams are in the same class when it gets right down to it.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE -14

No. 5 LSU @ No. 12 Arkansas, 3:30PM ET, Saturday
The line in this game has me leery of a trap, but I’m not going to overthink this one. Ryan Mallett had a difficult time with the Tigers last year in a 33-30 overtime loss. He completed just 17-of-39 passes for 227 yards and an interception and I believe he’ll struggle again on Saturday. LSU’s offense came alive lat week in a wild 43-36 win over Ole Miss. Jordan Jefferson threw for a career-high 254 yards and a touchdown, while also adding his sixth rushing score of the season. If the Tigers can play mistake-free football offensively, they win this game outright.
THE PICK: LSU +3.5

No. 17 South Carolina @ Clemson, 3:30PM ET, Saturday
For all intents and purposes, this game doesn’t mean anything for South Carolina. The Gamecocks have bigger fish to fry next week in the SEC Championship Game, so does anyone really think they’re going to lay it on the line this weekend against a non-conference foe (even if that foe is Clemson)? And it’s not like the Tigers have nothing to play for; a win would enhance their bowl prospects and not allowing South Carolina to win on their home turf is all the motivation they need in this one. Stephen Garcia and Co. have put together a nice season, but I’m playing the emotional angle here. Clemson wins outright.
THE PICK: CLEMSON +2.5

Season Record: 17-23. And just think: I had to go 3-1 last week just to get to 17-23. Yikes.

If you’re not fading my ass by now, then there’s something definitely wrong with your think tank.

Over the past three weeks I’ve gone 0-4, 1-3 and then 0-4 again last week. The worst of it is, I wasn’t even close last Saturday. I said the five points that you had to lay with Utah was a gift against Notre Dame and the only gift was my pick of the Utes (who laid down nicely against the Irish). Georgia hung with Auburn for most of the game but then went quietly into the night. Florida and Texas were jokes, as were my picks of them to cover.

Whatever. I’m now 14-22 on the year with little hope of turning this thing around. If you don’t fade me now, then forever hold your peace.

No. 13 Arkansas @ No. 21 Mississippi State, 7:00PM ET
If the Bulldogs can’t get their 18th-ranked running game going then they’ll have a tough time keeping up with Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered offense. Mississippi State’s defense has played well this season but its offense lacks that big-play potential. I think the Bulldogs will make a game of it early but eventually the Razorbacks will be too much for MSU to handle. The Hogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and 8-1 ATS in their last eight conference games.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS –3

Purdue @ No. 12 Michigan State, 12:00PM ET
The Spartans are probably overdue for a slip up but with a Big Ten title in their sights, I don’t think they fall this weekend against a punchless Boilermaker team. The home team is 9-2-1 against the number in the last 12 meetings between these two programs and Purdue is just 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to East Lansing. The Boilermakers might have a tough time slowing down MSU’s explosive running game and don’t expect Sparty to let up in the fourth quarter when they’re up big. There’s no time for them to take their foot off the gas when they need two victories to secure a Big Ten crown.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE –20

No. 10 Oklahoma State @ Kansas, 12:00PM ET
Kansas’ wins this season were against the following: Georgia Tech, New Mexico State and Colorado (which they trailed by 28 in the fourth quarter and need a miracle comeback to win). Their victory over the Yellow Jackets was impressive, but this is a team that has largely been blown out against good and even average teams. They lost 55-7 at Baylor, 59-7 against Kansas State and 45-10 against Texas A&M. I know they somewhat held Nebraska in check last week but Oklahoma State’s offense is too explosive for the Jayhawks to keep things close this Saturday. The Cowboys roll.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE –24

Ole Miss @ No. 5 LSU, 3:30PM ET
I have a buddy who always picks the No. 16 seeds against the No. 1 seeds in the March Madness tournament every year so that if one day it happens, he can claim that he “called the upset.” I feel like him right now when it comes to LSU. For weeks I’ve been saying that LSU will fall to a suspect opponent but every time I pick against them, they win and cover easily. The one time I picked them to cover was against Auburn and – surprise! – that was the Tigers’ only loss of the year. But I’m going back to the well at least one more time: Ole Miss plus the points.
THE PICK: OLE MISS +16.5

Season Record: 14-22. I don’t know what to say, so I think it’s best if I don’t say anything and just bow my head in shame.

I hung onto my winning record in college football with another .500 effort in Week 8. Utah and UAB hit, but North Carolina never showed up in Miami and I fell into the trap that was Oklahoma at Missouri.

That 4-0 weekend continues to elude me…for now.

No. 5 Michigan State @ No. 18 Iowa, 3:30PM ET
This game and the one I picked below it have trap written all over them, but I have a rule about not picking against underdogs in the top-10. Teams that have climbed into the top-10 got there for a reason and Michigan State is no different. While they very easily could have lost in Northwestern last week, the Spartans are on a mission and they know that if they beat Iowa on Saturday, they have a clear path to a Big Ten title. MSU has a reputation of slipping up every season, but this Spartans team has a different feel to it. Thanks to Edwin Baker, Sparty has the 28th ranked rushing offense in the nation and are 22nd in scoring. They face a stiff test this weekend going up against the No. 8 run defense in the country, but this one will be close. I’m taking the points with MSU.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +6.5

No. 6 Missouri @ No. 14 Nebraska, 3:30PM
See above. Ever since I watched San Diego State nearly beat the Tigers in Missouri roughly a month ago, I haven’t been a backer of MIZZOU. Yet they keep on winning. Beating Oklahoma was a huge accomplishment and lucky for them, they have no time to celebrate with a trip to Lincoln coming up this Saturday. Nebraska’s defense shouldn’t have as much trouble with Missouri as it did last weekend against Oklahoma State, but they’ll still be challenged by the 16th-best passing offense in the nation. Again, I don’t make it a habit to pick against teams in the top-10 and while I fully admit I may be falling into a second trap (along with Michigan State), I like MIZZOU to cover.
THE PICK: MISSOURI +7.5

No. 2 Oregon @ USC, 8:00PM ET
The idea of backing USC’s defense when it has the task of trying to slow Oregon’s explosive offensive attack makes me want to puke. But the Ducks embarrassed the Trojans last year in Eugene and now USC has a chance to return the favor. The Ducks are averaging 44.3 points per game on the road this year, which is still a lot, but not compared to the 55.1 PPG they’re averaging at home. They’re also allowing almost a touchdown more per game on the road than they are in Eugene and this USC team can score thanks to QB Matt Barkley. Oregon is just 2-5 against the number in its last seven meetings with USC and while I don’t think the Trojans win outright, I like them getting points at home in prime time.
THE PICK: USC +6.5

No. 17 Oklahoma State @ Kansas State, 12:00PM ET
I’ll be honest, this pick was made for me the moment head coach Mike Gundy suspended receiver Justin Blackmon after the receiver was arrested on a DUI earlier this week in Dallas. Blackmon leads the nation in touchdowns and could have done some serious damage against a slow K-State defense. But you take him out of the equation and while the Cowboys’ offense is still chockfull of playmakers, I like the Wildcats’ chances of keeping things close. But they need to keep the ball on the ground with Daniel Thomas (the Big 12’s leading rusher) and keep Brandon Weeden off the field in order to have a chance. I think we see a much slower pace to OK State’s offense this weekend and K-State squeaks out a cover.
THE PICK: KANSAS STATE +5

Season Record: 13-11

It was a .500 effort last weekend thanks to NC State’s collapse against Virginia Tech. (What the H was that, Wolfpack?) Michigan State and Boise State were winners, while Ohio State and the NC State Chokesalot were losers.

I’m 6-6 against the number this season, but let’s see if we can’t pull out another 3-1 Saturday like we did two weekends ago.

No. 1 Alabama at. No. 19 South Carolina, 3:30PM ET, CBS
The thought here might be to take the points with a 3-1 South Carolina team playing at home – especially after the Tide struggled with Arkansas two weeks ago on the road. But I think the near-loss was good for Nick Saban’s squad, who is at the end of a daunting three-game stretch. Heisman winner Mark Ingram shredded the Gamecocks last season by rushing for 246 yards and I see more of the same this year.
THE PICK: ALABAMA –7

Minnesota at No. 20 Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET, Big Ten Network
I’m going right back to the well against Wisconsin again, which is just 1-4 against the spread this year. Minnesota’s offense has been a little better than people expected and this should be a classic Big Ten battle (i.e. boring football), which will be won down in the trenches. While I don’t see the Gophers pulling off an upset like the Spartans did last Saturday against Wisconsin, 22.5 points is too much for the Badgers to be laying against anyone right now.
THE PICK: MINNESOTA +22.5

Toledo at. No. 4 Boise State, 8:00PM ET, ESPN 3
There typically aren’t any letdown games for a team like Boise State, but if there were, it would look like Toledo. The Broncos waxed New Mexico State 59-0 on the road last Saturday, which is why oddsmakers have hiked up the point spread again this week (Boise covered as a 43.5-point favorite). But the Rockets are 3-0 against the spread on the road this year and have enough weapons to score against a potentially less-motivated Boise defense. Any game involving the Broncos has a chance to get ugly in a hurry, but I think Toledo keeps this contest within 39 points.
THE PICK: TOLEDO +39

Oregon State at. No. 9 Arizona, 6:00PM ET Versus
Is it just me or do oddsmakers continue to slight the Beavers in terms of the spread? They’ve already proven in close losses to TCU and Boise State that they can hang with top-25 competition and yet here they are once again listed as an underdog of more than a touchdown. The Wildcats’ record speaks for itself, but most teams have trouble with the Rodgers brothers and I like for Oregon State to keep this one close, just as Cal did two weeks ago against ‘Zona.
THE PICK: OREGON STATE +8.5

Season Record: 6-6

Ugh.

After going 3-1 two weeks ago, I successfully predicted a downfall last Saturday by putting forth a brutal effort. Alabama (no front door cover, Tide?), South Carolina (couldn’t hang onto that lead, Cocks?) and LSU (only 20 points at home, Tigers?) were all losers, while my only winner was Temple over Penn State (even though the Owls tried to blow that one for me late).

Here goes a better effort this week…

No. 17 Ohio State –16.5 at Illinois, 12:00PMET
Lay the points. The Buckeyes are 4-0 against the spread this year and have done it in rather easy fashion. I realize this is their first road test of the year, not to mention their first Big Ten game, but Ohio State is the far superior team and should roll. The Buckeyes haven’t lost to the Illini since 1991 and while Illinois has hung with them in recent years, it’ll be too much Terrelle Pryor this Saturday.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE –16.5

No. 11 Wisconsin vs. No. 24 Michigan State +2, 3:30PM ET
The Spartans will certainly get a lift from Mark Dantonio, who returns to the sidelines (the press box, actually) this weekend after suffering a heart attack following MSU’s overtime win over Notre Dame two weeks ago. The Spartans have rushed for over 200 yards in each of their first four games and while the Badgers have a potent rushing attack themselves, I like MSU to win outright in East Lansing. Every year the Spartans beat an opponent they’re not supposed to and while a win on Saturday would hardly be shocking, it would still be considered an upset with Wisconsin ranked 11th in the nation.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +2

Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State +4, 3:30PM ET
I feel as though people are falling asleep on this NC State team, which is coming off impressive wins over Cincinnati and Georgia Tech the past two weekends. They don’t have a great rushing offense, but their passing game led by Russell Wilson ranks 19th in the nation and they’re averaging 37.75 points per game. After losing to Boise State and James Madison earlier in the year, VA Tech has gotten back on track with wins over East Carolina and Boston College the past two weekends. That said, there’s still something missing from this team and while Tyrod Taylor has made a ton of highlight reel plays, he leads an offense that is 87th in passing. I think NC State keeps this game within a field goal and covers.
THE PICK: NC STATE +4

No. 3 Boise State –43.5 vs. New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
Usually I don’t even consider games that have point spreads of over 30 points because of the threat of a backdoor cover, but I always make an exception when New Mexico State is involved. As long as the Broncos don’t take their foot off the gas I could see them scoring in the 60s this weekend. The Aggies rank second-to-last in total defense among FBS teams and the Broncos can ill-afford to suffer a letdown now that they’re ranked third in the nation. Boise rolls.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE –43.5

Season Record: 4-4

Last week was the first time I posted predictions for the new college football season and after going 3-1, I’m fired up for a reversal of fortune this Saturday. (The college football prediction gods can be a very fickle bunch, not unlike their cousins, the NFL prediction gods.)

Ohio State, Alabama and Arizona State were winners in Week 3, while Texas Tech was my only loser. Here are my predictions for Week 4.

No. 1 Alabama –7 vs. No. 10 Arkansas, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
This game makes my head hurt. I can absolutely see a good Razorback team staying with the Tide for four quarters before finally succumbing to defeat and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Arkansas pulled off the upset entirely. But now that Alabama is back at full strength with Mark Ingram’s return, something tells me Nick Saban’s squad flexes its muscles this weekend. ‘Bama held quarterback Ryan Mallett to only 160 passing yards last year and intercepted him once. Mallett is a better quarterback then he was in September of last year (where the Tide cruised to a 35-7 victory), but ‘Bama has the second best pass defense in the country and I think the Razorback QB is going to have a tough go of things again this year.
THE PICK: ALABAMA -7

Temple +13.5 at No. 23 Penn State, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
No longer are the Owls just a patsy for the Nittany Lions, who have often scheduled Temple early in the year as a tune up game. Temple is 3-0 and coming off a two-touchdown win over a Connecticut team that people had high hopes for entering the year. Penn State routed Kent State 24-0, but are just two weeks removed from a brutal effort against Alabama. Freshman quarterback Robert Bolden is still trying to find his way and has turned the ball over at least once in each of his first three games. The Lions haven’t lost to Temple since 1941, but I think this game will be closer than people expect.
THE PICK: TEMPLE +13.5

No. 12 South Carolina +3 at No. 17 Auburn, Saturday, 7:45PM ET
With this game being played in Auburn, the line is set right. But I still feel as though South Carolina isn’t getting the respect it deserves. The Gamecocks routed a better-than-average Southern Miss team on opening night, then dominated Georgia 17-6 before waxing Furman, 38-19. Auburn, meanwhile, took it to Arkansas State in the first weekend, barely edged college football’s equivalent of the Seattle Mariners (Mississippi State) in Week 2 and then had to come from behind to top Clemson last week. Thanks to Cameron Newton, Onterio McCalebb and Michael Dyer, the Tigers can run the football but South Carolina has the sixth-best run defense in the nation and I see them containing the Tigers’ offensive attack. Again, the line is set right but I like the Gamecocks.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA +3

No. 22 West Virginia at No. 15 LSU -10, Saturday, 9:00PM ET
The Tigers are a very quiet 3-0 right now. After nearly blowing a win against North Carolina in the opening week, their defense has looked solid the past two Saturdays in wins over Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. The Tigers have won 28 consecutive home games against non-conference foes, although they have lost their past three home games against top 25 opponents. Still, West Virginia has had issues with turnovers the past three weeks and needed overtime to beat Marshall two weeks ago. Noel Devine will have a tough time finding room against the 16th-best run defense in the nation and Jordan Jefferson should have no problem moving the ball through the air against the Mountaineers’ suspect secondary.
THE PICK: LSU –10

Season Record: 3-1

I have yet to make any college football predictions for the new year, so what better time to start than now? Here are a couple of picks to fade come Saturday. (It’s not that I’m not confident. I’m just confident that I don’t have a clue what I’m doing – big difference.)

Ohio at No. 2 Ohio State, 12:00PM ET
The Buckeyes appear to be a pony that you can back all season. They have a top 5 defense, Terrelle Pryor isn’t turning the ball over like Jake Delhomme on a NFL Sunday and any one of their top three runners (Pryor, Dan Herron, Brandon Saine) could take one to the house at any time. Ohio, meanwhile, beat Wofford and then lost to Toledo 20-13 at home last week. They lack offensive firepower and while their defense can compete against MAC opponents, OSU shouldn’t have any problems lighting up the scoreboard on Saturday. I always fear the backdoor cover in a game like this, but hopefully the Buckeyes score about 80 and it won’t matter.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE –29.5

No. 1 Alabama at Duke, 3:30PM ET
Same thing here as the game above – I fear the backdoor cover (especially with ‘Bama playing on the road), but I’m willing to lay the points in what should be a rout. Duke gave up 27 to Elon (who?) in Week 1 and 54 to Wake Forest last week. Considering Mark Ingram is coming back this Saturday and the Tide will be at full strength offensively, anything less than 50 out of Alabama will be a disappointment. On the other side of the ball, ‘Bama has only allowed six points this season. Penn State needed three and a half quarters just to get on the scoreboard with a field goal last week and by that point, the game was already in the books.
THE PICK: ALABAMA –23.5

Arizona State +12.5 at. Wisconsin, 3:30PM ET
Wisconsin has won 25 straight home games against unranked opponents, but they’re 0-2 against the spread this year, which includes a lackluster 27-14 win over a brutal San Jose State team last weekend. Michigan transfer Steven Threet is now the Sun Devils’ starter and he holds a 1-0 record against the Badgers in his short collegiate career. I don’t see ASU winning this game outright (especially considering they’ve lost six straight to FBS schools), but I’ll take the 12.5 points with thunderstorms expected to hit in Madison by game time.
THE PICK: ARIZONA STATE +12.5

No. 6 Texas at Texas Tech +3, 8:00PM ET
There’s something about Lubbock that doesn’t sit well with Mack Brown. The Longhorns are only 3-3 under Brown at Texas Tech and the last time these two teams met here, Michael Crabtree shocked a then-ranked No. 1 Texas team with a last-second touchdown. The Longhorns didn’t look particularly sharp in their first two games of the season, although both were victories. Tech, meanwhile, staved off a late comeback by SMU in Week 1 and then waxed New Mexico 52-17 last Saturday. There’s just something about Lubbock that gives the Raiders a significant edge in this matchup, which is why I like Tech to win outright (but go ahead and give me the points anyway…you know, so they don’t go to waste).
THE PICK: TEXAS TECH +3