No. 1 Florida at Mississippi State, 7:30PM ET
After a hard-fought win over LSU two weeks ago and a gift-wrapped (courtesy of the officials) victory over Arkansas last week, Florida will try to remain undefeated against a Mississippi State team that has had the Gators’ number in Starkville. Florida has dropped their last four games in Starkville and hasn’t won there since 1985. The Gators are too good defensively for the Bulldogs to pull off an upset, but with Florida’s lack of offensive firepower, Mississippi State will keep this game close until the end. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen is a former offensive coordinator at Florida, so his knowledge of the Gators’ program will aid him on Saturday but in the end, Mississippi State doesn’t have enough depth to beat Florida this season. Tim Tebow and company haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, so I like the Bulldogs to cover.
Odds: Florida –22.5
Prediction: Florida 27, Mississippi State 13.

No. 13 Penn State at Michigan, 3:30PM ET
The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Ann Arbor since 1996, which is why the point spread is so low in this matchup. But Penn State has won three straight by a combined score of 107-20 since their home loss to Iowa and they’ll be looking for a measure of revenge against a Michigan team that has had their number on the road. The Wolverines are too inconsistent on offense to hang with the Lions for four quarters, especially if they have trouble running the ball against PSU’s solid front seven. Offensively for the Nittany Lions, Evan Royster and Darryl Clark will keep the chains moving against a Michigan defense that has trouble getting off the field on third down. This won’t be a blow out because it’s in Ann Arbor, but Penn State will continue its winning ways.
Odds: Penn State –4.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Michigan 13.

Read the rest of this entry »

No. 1 Florida (4-0) at No. 4 LSU (5-0), 8:00PM ET
The Gators travel to Baton Rouge to take on the Tigers on Saturday night in college football’s game of the week. Florida’s 14-game winning streak is in jeopardy because quarterback Tim Tebow hasn’t been medically cleared to play yet after suffering a concussion two weeks ago in a win over Kentucky. Another factor working against Florida is that LSU has won 32 straight Saturday night games and Baton Rouge has proven to be one of the more hostile environments in college football. But for betting purposes, something doesn’t feel right about this point spread. Why is Florida a 7.5-point favorite on the road against a Tiger team that hasn’t lost on Saturday nights in 32 consecutive tries and Tebow hasn’t been cleared to play? LSU’s offense has struggled so far this year and things won’t get any easier this week against a Florida defense that is the best in the nation. The game might be tight for a while, but the Gators cover in the end.
Odds: Florida –7.5.
Prediction: Florida 24, LSU 14.

Boston College (4-1) at No. 5 Virginia Tech (4-1), 12:00PM ET
The Hokies have won two straight ACC title games against the Eagles coming into this game, but BC holds a three-game regular season winning streak over VA Tech. While the Eagles have surprised many pundits this year, they’re likely to struggle this weekend in Blacksburg. VA Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor continues to improve as a passer and is starting to build a lot of confidence. Boston College doesn’t have the offensive weapons to match up with the a tough Hokie defense and the Eagles will struggle to contain Taylor for four quarters.
Odds: VA Tech –13.5.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 13.

Read the rest of this entry »

No. 4 LSU at No. 18 Georgia, 3:30PM ET
Last year, Georgia rolled into Tiger Stadium and laid a 52-38 beat down on LSU as they forced three turnovers and running back Knowshon Moreno (now a Denver Bronco) racked up 163 yards on 21 carries. After an ugly 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State in the opening week of the season, the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight wins and will now face a Tiger team that struggled a bit offensively last week in a narrow 30-26 win over Mississippi State. LSU was outgained 374-263 and only rushed for 30 yards in the victory. The Tigers usually feast on pro-style offenses, so UGA quarterback Joe Cox can’t force throws in attempt to make something happen down field. That said, the Tigers haven’t been tested yet and needed a goal line stand to pull off the win last week. Georgia, on the other hand, has already faced a ranked OK State team and beaten competitive SEC foes South Carolina and Arkansas. The Bulldogs are more battle tested and will overcome a stiff Tiger defense.
Odds: Georgia –3.
Prediction: Georgia 24, LSU 20.

No. 7 USC at No. 24 California, 8:00PM ET
Don’t everyone break your legs jumping off the Cal bandwagon after Oregon smacked the Golden Bears 42-3 last week. Heisman candidate Jahvid Best rushed for only 55 yards in the loss and will face another tough challenge this week against a USC defense that held him to only 30 yards last season. The Trojans have the sixth best defense in the nation and the fifth best scoring defense. They have limited opponents to only 59.5 rushing yards per game and only 95 YPC threw the air. That said, Cal has played USC close over the years and the Trojans have kept things rather conservative offensively with freshman Matt Barkley under center. I see this game being close, although I don’t know if Kevin Riley can beat USC through the air if the Trojans’ front seven takes away Best.
Odds: USC –4.5.
Prediction: USC 20, Cal 17.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here are my picks for Week 4 in college football.

Last week I went 3-1 straight up and just 1-3 against the spread, so gamblers – fade at will. (By the way, those are also my season totals because I didn’t make picks for the first two weeks, although I probably would have gone 8-0 so feel free to give me the undeserved credit.)

Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
Arkansas certainly has an offense capable of hanging with most opponents given the vertical weapons they have in Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams in the passing game. But ‘Bama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart should throw a variety of looks at Razorback signal caller Ryan Mallett and use blitzes to help generate a rush. The Tide lack a pass-rushing presence on their defensive line, but their secondary is experienced and should handle whatever Bobby Petrino throws at them on Saturday. I expect ‘Bama to take away Michael Smith, Broderick Green, Ronnie Wingo and the Arkansas’ running game and force the Razorbacks to become one-dimensional. With Julio Jones expected back this week after missing last Saturday with a knee injury, the Razorback defense could be in trouble. ‘Bama will look to take control of this game in the second half with a balanced offensive approach and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Odds: Alabama –17.5.
Prediction: Alabama 41, Arkansas 20.

No. 9 Miami at No. 11 Virginia Tech, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
The Canes are quickly becoming one of the more talked about programs in the nation this year courtesy of quarterback Jacory Harris. Thanks to an improved pass protection and his ability to see the entire field, Harris played exceptionally well in Miami’s wins over ranked opponents Florida State and Georgia Tech, respectively. But the key to a Canes’ victory will be running the ball to set up Harris and the passing game. Frank Beamer’s squad has not done a good job of stopping the run so far this season and if Miami can get versatile running backs Javarris James and Graig Cooper some running room early on, they might set up Harris to make big plays in the passing game. Defensively, Miami could be burned by Tyrod Taylor’s running ability if it doesn’t stay disciplined when shooting gaps. Taylor, who has been more patient as a passer this season, needs to use his legs if he sees that the Canes are too aggressive up front. Miami must also contain running back Ryan Williams, who has been excellent filling in for the injured Darren Evans. While Blacksburg is one of the toughest places to play in college football, Randy Shannon has his team playing with a swagger and they won’t be intimated on the road. This is going to be a thrilling game and one that might come down to the wire. I’m going with the hot team, however, and predict a win for Miami.
Odds: Miami –2.5.
Prediction: Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20.

Read the rest of this entry »