According to Philly.com, the Eagles are unlikely to rush Brian Westbrook back, even for a big game like Sunday’s tilt against the Giants.

From a fantasy perspective, Westbrook’s owners knew that he was going to miss a few games throughout the season, so they shouldn’t be surprised or angry about this news. LeSean McCoy is a capable backup, but it’s not like next week’s game against the Giants is a tasty matchup for either RB.

Desperate owners should look to Shonn Greene and/or Beanie Wells, who may be available. Greene is going to get most of Leon Washington’s touches and Wells is getting more and more work in the Arizona backfield. He’s a much better natural runner than Tim Hightower, though Hightower has more experience and better hands.

If Greene and Wells are gone, Mike Bell is another option. He is getting all of the Saints’ goal line work and has 27 carries in the last two games. He’s not going to post Westbrook-like numbers, but he should help fantasy owners get by. If Bell isn’t available, Justin Fargas ran really hard against the Jets and has a nice matchup against the Chargers in Week 8.

Around this time last year, I compiled a top 10 list of Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates and ranked Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan No. 1. He went on to throw for 3,440 yards, 16 touchdowns and led Atlanta to a remarkable playoff appearance, all while making me look like some kind of OROY-predicting genius.

Of course, I also listed Titans running back Chris Johnson at No. 7 behind less-productive names like Darren McFadden (No. 4), Kevin Smith (No. 5) and Rashard Mendenhall (No. 6), hence making me look like some kind of OROY-predicting moron.

To see my top 10 ranking from last year, click here. And for my top 10 ranking of the offensive rookie of the year candidates for this season, see below.

1. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
While the knee injury he suffered in Denver’s preseason opener is a concern, Moreno is expected to be ready for Week 1 and will be given every opportunity to shine in ’09. Granted, he’s stuck in a crowded backfield and could be eased into the season after hurting his knee, but he has the potential to be an every-down back at some point this year. He was the most complete back in April’s draft, has outstanding vision and should get plenty of opportunities to make plays in Josh McDaniels’ shotgun-heavy offense. He’ll also benefit from running behind the Broncos’ stellar O-line. Expecting him to put up rushing numbers similar to those of Chris Johnson (1,228 rushing yards) last year might be a little ambitious. But if Moreno stays healthy, a 400-plus yard receiving season in McDaniels’ system is certainly doable.

2. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
The Vikings’ coaching staff has raved about Harvin’s potential so much so that it’s hard not to buy into the hype. Receivers usually don’t make much of an impact until their second or third years, but it’s hard to ignore all of the glowing reports coming out of Vikings’ camp these days. Harvin is quick off the ball, can stretch a defense will his speed and is dangerous in the open field. Head coach Brad Childress has reportedly been working on finding ways to get Harvin the ball in his offense and Minnesota seemingly wants to give the rookie wideout as many opportunities as possible. That said, he’s on the smaller side and was held out of the Vikings’ preseason opener due to a shoulder injury (which is not considered to be serious). Will durability be a concern? If not, he appears to be the popular choice to emerge as this year’s OROY.

3. Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets
We should know more about whether or not Sanchez will have the opportunity to start this season after the Jets take on the Ravens tonight in their second preseason game. But all indications are that he’s the favorite to beat out Kellen Clemens after his impressive preseason debut in which he completed 3-of-4 passes for 88 yards against the Rams. Granted, he’s reportedly struggled in scrimmages since that series against St. Louis, but has no less turned heads since the Jets drafted him with the fifth overall pick in April. There were concerns about whether or not he had enough collegiate experience to start as a rookie in the NFL, but he’s made strides as a passer all summer and has showed more arm strength and accuracy than Clemens. Considering the Jets have one of the better O-lines in the league and have surrounded him with quality backs, Sanchez could have a Matt Ryan-type rookie season. Then again, Ryan had Roddy White to throw to and while he has always been an underrated and highly productive receiver, nobody is going to confuse Jerricho Cotchery (the Jets’ No. 1 wideout) for White.

4. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
I struggled on whether or not to list “Beanie” ahead of “Shady,” but I ultimately went with McCoy given that the Eagles have a better O-line and Wells can’t seem to stay healthy. McCoy will get plenty of opportunities to be a playmaker in Philadelphia’s offense and there’s always a chance that Brian Westbrook will miss time throughout the season. McCoy has tremendous playmaking ability, is shifty, and is gaining valuable experience with Westbrook sidelined with knee and ankle injuries. But what has impressed his coaches and teammates the most so far has been his toughness and blitz-pick up ability. One of the knocks on him coming out of PITT was that he might not be able to survive running in between the tackles in the NFL. But so far, he is dispelling that notion and has been awfully impressive.

5. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals
“Beanie” is certainly behind the 8-ball compared to his fellow OROY candidates. He has been in and out of practice virtually all camp and continues to battle an ankle injury. That said, he first reported to camp in early August weighing 22 pounds lighter than his draft-day weight and when he’s healthy, he can be the complete package as a runner. Granted, he doesn’t have much experience playing on third down and therefore isn’t much of a pass-catching threat. But he’s a bulldozer with 4.5-speed and is a terrific athlete. If he can get healthy and unseat starter Tim Hightower, Wells has a chance to surprise and win this year’s OROY.

6. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
Greene’s situation in New York is kind of hard to figure out at this point, given the contract situations of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. If the Jets wind up re-signing Washington, then Jones could be traded and thus, Greene’s roll will expand. But if the team hangs on to all three backs, then obviously Greene’s carries will be limited and he may only receive looks in short-yardage situations. Still, he has reportedly been impressive in camp and could emerge as the Jets’ goal line back at some point this season.

7. Donald Brown, RB, Colts
The 2008 Division-I rushing leader has a chance to become a weapon in the Colts’ passing attack this season. So far in preseason, he’s showed off his quickness as both a runner and receiver, and Indy will certainly find ways to get him on the field as a rookie. That said, he’s at a disadvantage playing in the same backfield as Joseph Addai, who will likely remain the Colts’ top short-yardage back. So unless Brown racks up a ton of yards and scores through the air, he probably won’t post OROY-worthy numbers. Although, if Addai suffers an injury, Brown will become the primary back and then the sky is the limit.

8. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions
After going 5-of-13 for 34 yards and an interception against the Browns, there’s a good chance that Stafford will lose his starting job to Daunte Culpepper. But that doesn’t mean he can’t bounce back with a solid effort in Detroit’s next two preseason games and redeem himself. Stafford looked comfortable and poised in the pocket in the Lions’ preseason opener against the Falcons, completing 7-of-14 passes for 114 yards and one touchdown. Chances are that the Lions will probably take it slow with Stafford and even if he does get the opportunity to start, the Lions won’t be good enough for him to win OROY. Still, crazier things have happened, which is why I ultimately decided to rank this year’s top overall pick.

9. Pat White, RB/QB, Dolphins
White has a tremendous learning curve coming from a “college offense” at West Virginia. He doesn’t figure to get on the field much as a passer, although that’s not to say he won’t have the opportunity to put the ball in the air. The Dolphins are installing a “Pat Package” in which they will try and take advantage of White’s running and passing abilities. He’ll get some opportunities to make plays in the Wildcat formation, although it’s unclear at this point how many opportunities he’ll inevitably get. If Ronnie Brown is more productive in that role, than White’s chances to play will be limited. That said, Miami didn’t take him in the second round so that he could hold a clipboard.

10. Glen Coffee, RB, 49ers
It’s kind of hard not to rank Coffee on this list after he rushed for 67 yards on 14 carries in the Niners’ preseason opener and then followed up that performance with a 16-carry, 129-yard effort in San Fran’s second preseason game. Thus far, the hard-running Coffee has shown great speed, good vision and excellent pass-blocking abilities. The only problem is that he has Frank Gore ahead of him on the depth chart, which will likely derail his bid to win OROY. Still, Coffee has been impressive so far and is playing his way into getting opportunities come the regular season.

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008…

RB1 – Matt Forte (RB30)
RB2 – DeAngelo Williams (RB36)
RB3 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB13)
RB4 – Thomas Jones (RB23)
RB5 – Brian Westbrook (RB3)
RB6 – Michael Turner (RB19)
RB7 – Adrian Peterson (RB2)
RB8 – Steve Slaton (RB67)
RB9 – Chris Johnson (RB40)
RB10 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB11 – Clinton Portis (RB8)
RB12 – Marshawn Lynch (RB9)

Michael Turner went on average in the very late third round, so that makes six backs that were drafted outside the first two rounds that made the top 12. Maurice Jones-Drew was a fringe first round pick, so players that were drafted in the first round finished in the top 12 about 50% of the time. Marion Barber (drafted RB7, finished RB13) and Frank Gore (drafted RB6, finished RB14) just missed the top 12. There were three first round “busts” – Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee – who finished outside the top 35. All three missed significant time due to injury. The final first round pick, Steven Jackson, finished as RB19 even though he missed four games due to injury.

What does this all mean? Good question…

Of the first 12 picks, eight finished in the top 20, and seven finished in the top 15. While that success rate certainly wouldn’t qualify as a sure thing, it doesn’t dispel the notion that fantasy owners should look to draft a running back in the first round. It’s not like drafting a WR was any more rewarding last year. The top three receivers – Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne – finished 11th, 13th and 12th amongst wideouts, respectively. The top QB, Tom Brady, missed the entire season with an injury and the second QB off the board, Peyton Manning, finished as 2008’s QB6.

Looking at the four middle- to late-round picks that made the top 12, we can draw some common themes. Five of the six are/were young. Thomas Jones had eight years in the league entering the 2008 season. The next most experienced player was Michael Turner, who had four years in the league. Four of the six were newcomers to their respective teams, with three rookies and Turner, who joined the Falcons after four seasons with the Chargers. Three entered the season as members of a committee — Williams split time with Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson shared carries with LenDale White and Steve Slaton emerged as the last man standing in Houston.

Now let’s take a look at 2007…

RB1 – Brian Westbrook (RB8)
RB2 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB3 – Clinton Portis (RB16)
RB4 – Joseph Addai (RB6)
RB5 – Adrian Peterson (RB26)
RB6 – Jamal Lewis (RB27)
RB7 – Frank Gore (RB4)
RB8 – Marion Barber (RB24)
RB9 – Willis McGahee (RB13)
RB10 – Earnest Graham (RB??, undrafted)
RB11 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15)
RB12 – Reggie Bush (RB10)

There were four major surprises in the top 12 in 2007 – Peterson, Lewis, Barber and Graham. Peterson and Lewis were newcomers to their respective teams, while Barber and Graham each emerged from a RBBC as the main man. (Graham was actually the last man standing.) Portis was a semi-surprise, as he was coming off an injury-plagued 2006 and finished the season as RB3. The other seven top 12 players weren’t that surprising, as they were all picked in the top 15.

Seven of the top 12 picks in 2007 could be considered disappointments. Steven Jackson (drafted RB2, finished RB15), Willie Parker (drafted RB7, finished RB20) and Ronnie Brown (drafted RB12, finished RB23) were minor disappointments, while Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney all finished outside of the top 30. All four players missed significant time due to injury. LJ, Alexander and Johnson all had at least 622 carries during the previous two seasons.

WHAT TO MAKE OF ALL OF THIS

It’s difficult to predict who is going to bust because usually underperformance stems from some sort of injury. Some fantasy football analysts argue that a heavy workload in previous seasons will eventually cause a breakdown, but a large number of carries also indicates dependability and consistency, which is why these players are being drafted this early in the first place.

LaDainian Tomlinson is 30 and has averaged 332 carries over his eight years in the league. Even though he showed some signs of breaking down in 2008 (with a very pedestrian 3.8 ypc), he still gained 1536 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 TD, finishing the season as RB10. Would you pass on him late in the first round?

Steven Jackson is only 26, but he has missed eight games over the past two seasons after a stellar 2006 campaign. He should bounce back, but he’s also shown signs that he’s injury-prone. Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber are all first- or second-round guys that are injury concerns for one reason or another. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to accurately predict which players are going to break down much less when.

So the best we can do is identify some possible surprises and hope they pan out, giving ourselves a safety net if one or more of our early picks have a disappointing season. We identified that youth, newcomer status, and starting the season in a RBBC were the top three factors of finding value in the middle to late rounds.

Right now, three names jump out at me: Derrick Ward (ADP: 5.03), Knowshon Moreno (4.10) and Chris Wells (6.01).

Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in place of an injured Brandon Jacobs in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, averaging 104 rushing yards in those games. He’s also a very adept pass catcher, averaging 2.8 catches per game over the last two years. Most importantly, he’s proven to be an efficient runner, averaging 4.8 ypc and 5.6 ypc in 2007 and 2008. He joins a semi-crowded backfield in Tampa that also includes Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams. But the Bucs gave Ward starter’s money, so he should have first crack at the job. His chances are further boosted by Williams’ knee injury and Graham’s ability to play fullback.

At first glance, Moreno looks to face something of an uphill battle to get carries in Denver. But these aren’t (or shouldn’t be) your father’s Broncos. Mike Shanahan is gone, and hopefully new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t inherit Skeletor’s joy of messing with his RB depth chart. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Here’s an excerpt from Moreno’s scouting report at FFToolbox…

Moreno is naturally blessed with a nice blend of size and speed, but it is his athleticism, vision, and ability to hit the hole that sets him apart as arguably the best running back in this year’s draft class.

Moreover, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. I expect Moreno will get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15, maybe even the top 10.

Lastly, Chris “Beanie” Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. What’s worrisome about Wells is that the Cardinals have struggled with their ground game over the past several seasons. Last year, they averaged just 3.5 ypc, which was next to last in the league.

On the plus side, teams don’t usually burn a first round pick on a running back unless they plan to use him. Clearly, the Cardinals did not feel strongly enough about Hightower to use their first pick to shore up another weakness, and they must have seen something in Wells that they really liked. This kind of favoritism usually leads to opportunity, and that’s half the battle.

As the training camps wear on, we may be able to identify some of the other “surprise” prospects. Inevitably, a veteran will go down with an injury, or a rookie will make a splash. This might help us recognize who the next Earnest Graham or Chris Johnson will be.

Stay tuned.

After drafting Chris “Beanie” Wells in the first round of the NFL draft on Saturday, the Arizona Republic expects the Cardinals to release running back Edgerrin James soon, possibly even as earlier as this weekend.

James started clamoring that he wanted out of Arizona last season when he started losing carries to Tim Hightower. James carried the ball only 133 times (his lowest total since an injury-plagued 2001 season) for 514 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games last season. He did rush for 236 yards on 61 carries in the playoffs last year (including the Super Bowl), but even then the writing seemed to be on the wall that he was done in the desert.

If he is released, James will get what he wants, although his market value will be extremely low now that the draft is over. At 30 years old, he’s at the age where teams stop looking at you as a starter and more as a backup in a platoon.

This is just speculation on my part, but one team that could be interested in James is the Texans. Steve Slaton emerged as a quality starter last year, but like most backs in the NFL, he wouldn’t be able to sustain the pounding of a full 16-game season. The team also still has Chris Brown and Ryan Moats on the roster, but Brown spent the entire 2008 season on IR due to a back injury and Moats rushed for just 94 yards on 26 carries last season.

Some speculated that the Texans would pick a running back in the first round of last week’s draft, but they decided to once again address their defense with the selection of linebacker Brian Cushing. Houston then went then entire weekend without taking a running back in any of the seven rounds.

James wouldn’t get more than a one or two year deal at this point, but he could make a nice complement to Slaton as long as he’s motivated. I know James still wants to be a starter, but at this point he better be willing to take a role in a platoon.

But should he be the favorite?

Below is a breakdown of 10 Heisman Trophy candidates and reasons why they will or won’t win the award this season.

1. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Why he’ll win: Barring injury, “Beanie” Wells should be the true favorite to win the Heisman this year based on his role in Ohio State’s offense, his talent and his team’s schedule. Jim Tressel loves to pound the ball on the ground, which should mean big numbers for Wells, who’s arguably the best back in the nation. It also doesn’t hurt that the Buckeyes won’t face many tough defenses this year outside of USC and possibly Penn State, who both had excellent run defenses in 2007. A 2,000-yard season certainly isn’t out of the question given Wells’ durability and strength.
Why he won’t win: Voters tend to remember if players don’t perform well against top competition, so Wells could blow his Heisman chances if he produces a dud against USC in early September. Outside of that, an injury or just a terrible year, what’s to stop Wells in 2008-09?

2. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Why he’ll win: Tebow is arguably the best player in the country and certainly the most versatile. He also is the offensive centerpiece for a powerhouse program that should contend for a national title this year and his 2007 performance is still fresh in the minds of voters.
Why he won’t win: The Gators offense should be even better in 2008, which in theory means that Tebow won’t be counted on to do quite as much as he did last year (again, in theory). Obviously he’ll still have a huge role in the offense, but Florida will have one of the most balanced attacks in the nation, which is great for wins but not for Tebow’s final numbers. He’ll likely not only have to produce a tremendous season, but also lead the Gators to a national championship, which is never easy playing in the tough SEC.

3. Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
Why he’ll win: Stats. Given the offense the Tigers run, Daniel is going to have the opportunity to match the 4,000-plus yards and 30-plus touchdowns he compiled from a year ago. Like last year, Missouri is a contender for the national title, which only helps Daniel’s chances.
Why he won’t win: Stats aren’t going to be a problem, but wins against top competition might be. Daniel will likely have to lead Mizzou to victories against Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma (or whoever) in the Big 12 Championship to even sniff a decent finish in the Heisman voting. That’s one tall order for not only Daniel, but the Tigers as well.

4. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Why he’ll win: It’s scary to think that given how productive the freshman Moreno was last year (1,334 yards, 14 TDs, 5.4 YPC), that there’s even more room for growth. Outside of Wells, Moreno is the most talented back in the nation and he also plays for the preseason No. 1 favorite so he’ll receive plenty of attention. He’s already drawing comparisons to Herschel Walker and Garrison Hearst.
Why he won’t win: Mark Richt has already indicated that he wants to get other backs involved (i.e. redshirt freshman Caleb King) in the offense, which could eat into Moreno’s touches (and thus, his stats). The offensive line also features some youth and might take time to gel, which usually doesn’t bode well for running backs. UGA quarterback Matthew Stafford also figures to be in the Heisman mix this season, and thus stealing some of the spotlight from Moreno.

5. Pat White, QB, West Virginia
Why he’ll win: Despite being one of the most electrifying players in the nation, White also has several factors working in his favor. One, West Virginia plays a favorable schedule and will likely contend for a national championship. Two, White doesn’t have to share the spotlight with Steve Slaton anymore, which should only increase his Heisman value. (Although Noel Devine looks like Steve Slaton Jr., so that second point might be moot once the season starts.)
Why he won’t win: With Rich Rodriguez now in Michigan, White and the Mountaineers have to adjust to having a new head coach (even though the team is familiar with new front man Bill Stewart from last year’s Fiesta Bowl victory). White has also struggled with injuries and one loss to a sub-par opponent will crush his Heisman chances. And with Slaton now in the NFL, defenses will likely key on White and build their game plan around stopping the dynamic QB.

6. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Why he’ll win: Crabtree’s stats should be impressive across the board in terms of touchdowns, receptions and yardage. Given the offense he plays in and the quarterback he plays for, Crabtree is going to have every chance to be the most productive receiver in the nation. (Stat-wise, at least.)
Why he won’t win: Crabtree will have the same problem as teammate Graham Harrell in that he plays in an offensive system designed to produce outrageous numbers. Heisman voters will expect big numbers out of Crabtree, so he and Texas Tech will likely have to produce a few upsets in order to turn heads.

7. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Why he’ll win: If it weren’t for an injury suffered against Texas Tech late in the year, Bradford would have made some noise in the 2007 Heisman race. His numbers were extraordinary last year (8 INTs compared to 36 TDs), so if he can stay healthy, produce similar stats and lead OK to another Big 12 Championship, his Heisman chances are excellent.
Why he won’t win: Losing receiver Malcolm Kelly hurts and like several other players on this list, Bradford has a teammate in DeMarco Murray that could steal some of his spotlight. Will the Sooners have to compete for a national title in order for Bradford to truly be recognized by voters? Or will a Big 12 Championship be enough?

8. DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
Why he’ll win: As a backup last year, Murray produced 13 touchdowns, so the sky is the limit this season. He also plays on a dynamic offense and a program that should compete for a national title. A few key performances against Texas, Kansas and possibly Missouri in the Big 12 Championship, would be huge for Murray.
Why he won’t win: As previously mentioned, only one underclassman has ever won the Heisman and that was Tebow last year. Murray also has to share the limelight with teammate Sam Bradford and he’s battled a knee injury in the past. Back up Chris Brown is also likely to steal some of Murray’s carries.

9. Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Why he’ll win: Stafford has developed into one of the best quarterback prospects in the nation and a future top 5 draft pick. He also plays on the most talked about team in the nation and if Georgia can cash in on all the preseason hype, Stafford is going to get major recognition from voters.
Why he won’t win: Playing in the SEC East is brutal. Stafford and UGA will have to face Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn and LSU this year, which is daunting to say the least. It also doesn’t help that Stafford plays in the same backfield as Moreno and will face Florida’s Tebow – two of the Heisman’s top candidates. Stafford could essentially lose the race if Tebow outperforms him in early November.

10. Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech
Why he’ll win: Similar to Chase Daniel, Harrell should produce eye-popping numbers in the Red Raiders’ high-powered offense. It also doesn’t hurt having a solid offensive line and an explosive weapon in fellow Heisman candidate Michael Crabtree. Depending on how you look at it, the Red Raiders’ schedule could help or hurt Harrell’s chances. Road games against Oklahoma and Kansas could sink Harrell’s Heisman stock. But if he could pull off a couple of upsets, his chances will obviously rise.
Why he won’t win: History. Despite producing great numbers on a yearly basis, Texas Tech quarterbacks typically don’t fair well in Heisman voting. System quarterbacks have a hard time earning Heisman votes; Hawaii’s Colt Brennan was the latest example.