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2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:11:27 +0000

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
I would love to predict a victory for my Falcons this Sunday in East Rutherford, but I just don’t see it happening. Michael Turner is out with a high ankle sprain, Matt Ryan is in the midst of a complete funk and the defense can’t stop the run. Throw in the fact that the Giants are at home and should be well rested coming off the bye and I see trouble for Atlanta. Ryan and backups Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are certainly capable of leading the Falcons to victory this weekend and the road team has won the past seven games in this series. But “Matty Ice” just hasn’t looked like the same player as he did earlier in the year and if he can’t cut down on the turnovers than the Giants will prevail. Since both of these teams are desperate for a win, I envision a tight game throughout. But all the intangibles are in the G-Men’s favor and I see them ending their four-game skid.
Odds: Giants –6.5.
Prediction: Giants 20, Falcons 16.

Eagles (5-4) at Bears (4-5), 8:20PM ET
Looking at both of these teams’ records, one might suggest that they’re both on the same level as one another. But nothing could be further from the truth. Outside of Lance Briggs and the struggling Jay Cutler, the Bears simply don’t have the talent to match up with the other contenders in the NFC Wild Card race – including the Eagles. Matt Forte is a good, young running back but he’s useless thanks to an inept offensive line filled with veterans whose better days are behind them (Orlando Pace, Olin Kreutz), fringe starters (Frank Omiyale, Josh Beekman, Kevin Shaffer) and one underachieving youngster (Chris Williams). The Eagles may be struggling at the moment, but they’ve got better overall talent than the Bears and I think they’ll prove that this Sunday night at Solider Field. Cutler has been brutal in night games (not that necessarily means anything) and continues to think that he has to do everything on his own (which means a lot). If Chicago can’t run the ball (they haven’t all year) then Philadelphia should soundly beat them on their own turf.
Odds: Eagles –2.5.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Bears 10.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Biggest injury concern: Orton, Turner, Brown or Benson?

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:15:57 +0000

Last week, several teams’ playoff hopes took major hits as key players all left their respective games due to various injuries.

The Broncos (Kyle Orton), Falcons (Michael Turner), Dolphins (Ronnie Brown) and Bengals (Cedric Benson) seem to be bitten he hardest by the injury bug but which injury should concern their respective teams the most? Let’s break down all four situations.

Broncos: Without Orton, Denver stands little chance of beating the Chargers at home this Sunday and even less of a chance of winning the AFC West. Orton isn’t Peyton Manning, but he might as well be the Broncos’ version of the star Colts’ QB because Chris Simms proved last week that he isn’t capable of keeping Denver afloat if Orton misses significant time. Now maybe with more preparation Simms will be better, but chances are the Broncos’ hopes of making the playoffs will fall flat with him under center. Orton says that he will play this weekend, even though he has torn ligaments in his left ankle. He admitted last year that he shouldn’t have tried to grit out a right ankle injury when he was playing for the Bears, so there’s a chance that he’s about to make the same mistake twice. This Sunday will be a good indication of how severe Orton’s injury really is.

Falcons: After getting off to a slow start, Turner was back in 2008 form the past couple weeks and even compiled 111 yards on only nine carries against the Panthers last Sunday before suffering a high ankle sprain. Usually those types of injuries take months to heel, but the Falcons don’t seem concerned about Turner missing more than a couple of weeks. The problem is that the Falcons are in the midst of a Wild Card chase in the NFC and they need their bruising back on the field – especially as Matt Ryan continues to struggle in his second year. Atlanta has capable backups in Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, but the latter can’t stay healthy and the former doesn’t have much experience. If Ryan can step up and prove he can lead the Falcons through the air, then Turner can rest up and be ready in time for a late-season run. If Ryan falters again like he has been, then Turner might feel the need to rush back from his injury sooner than he (or the team) intends.

Dolphins: Miami had to end Brown’s season after he injured his foot in a win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. Ricky Williams has been superb this season, but Brown is the key to the Dolphins’ Wildcat success and he instills a toughness that can’t be matched by Williams alone. If Pat White can step up and help run the Wildcat, then Miami will keep its slim playoff hopes alive. But they need to win tonight in Carolina or else they’ll likely fall to far behind in a tight conference.

Bengals: Cincinnati is probably the best off because Benson’s hip injury doesn’t seem as serious as the alignments bothering Orton, Turner and Brown. He has been ruled out against the Raiders this week, but I imagine if the game had playoff implications that Benson would be on the field. With a solid two-game lead (tie-breaker included) over Pittsburgh in the AFC North, Cincinnati can afford to rest Benson this week and still beat a bad Oakland team this Sunday. Hopefully he’ll recover quickly and if he doesn’t, Cincinnati has capable backups in Bernard Scott and the recently signed Larry Johnson to help fill the void until Benson is healthy again.

Of these injuries, I would say Orton and Turner’s are of biggest concern given how they can affect the Broncos and Falcons’ playoff hopes. Losing Brown hurts, but even with him on the field the Dolphins’ postseason chances are slim at best and Benson should be back in a week or two for Cincinnati.

If Orton can play on the injured ankle and not suffer any setbacks, then Denver should be okay. But if they have to rely on Simms for longer than a game or two, they’re toast.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Broncos: Struggling team or overrated?

Anthony Stalter — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:32:29 +0000

When a team loses to a good Ravens squad after starting the season 6-0, nobody questions it.

When that same team drops a home game on national television to the physical Steelers, again, nobody questions it.

But when that very same team can’t beat the hapless Redskins (whether it’s on the road or not), then it’s only fair that the “O” word starts to rear its ugly head.

I actually don’t think the Broncos are overrated – I think they’re just sputtering. Had Kyle Orton not suffered an ankle injury right before half, there’s a good chance he and Brandon Marshall (who had an excellent game while catching five passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns) would have continued to torch Washington’s secondary on their way to a victory. Instead, the highly incapable Chris Simms came in and was incredibly inaccurate while missing open receivers and lacking composure in the pocket.

Denver also had to travel cross-country, which is tough for any team, nevertheless one that played on Monday night. The Broncos were worn out from their loss to the Steelers and it showed today.

That said, I don’t want to completely make excuses for this Broncos team because they were playing the Redskins – a team that gave up weeks ago. Their defense gave up 27 points to a Sherman Lewis-led offense, which is ridiculous – I don’t care if they played on Friday night and had to travel Washington from China. They also allowed Hunter freaking Smith to throw a 35-yard touchdown pass to Mike freaking Sellers on a fake freaking field goal, which is ludicrous.

The bottom line is that Josh McDaniels and his coaching staff have their backs up against the wall and they need to figure out how to fight out of the situation. Teams have obviously figured out what the blueprint is to beat the Broncos and now it’s time for the rookie head coach to adjust. They’re still in a great position at 6-3, but the Chargers are breathing down their necks so a sense of urgency is a must.

Don’t plan on the Broncos trading Cutler

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 16:00:08 +0000

Fans in Minnesota, Detroit and Tampa have kept a close eye on the developing situation in Denver in hopes that the Broncos will eventually trade unhappy quarterback Jay Cutler. But I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were a Vikings, Lions or Bucs fan.

It’s highly unlikely that the Broncos will trade Cutler at this point, even with the situation apparently getting worse by the day. Cutler may be upset with the way new head coach Josh McDaniels entertained trade offers for him two weeks ago, but the fact of the matter is that even if Denver wanted to deal the quarterback, they don’t have a good enough backup plan at this point to follow through with it.

McDaniels claims that he listened to offers from the Patriots when it was reported that Denver, New England and Tampa Bay had talked about a three-team deal, but that’s only because Matt Cassel – McDaniels’ former QB in New England – was involved. Now that Cassel is set to become the Chiefs’ starting quarterback next season, it’s doubtful that the Broncos will move Cutler with no other intriguing options out there to take his place.

One small, interesting rumor that has circulated on the web is that Denver loves the potential of Chris Simms, whom they just signed to a deal in early March. But the Broncos only signed him to a two-year, $6 million contract, which is barely the league-average for a backup quarterback and indicates that he might not even win the No. 2 spot on the depth chart. (Dan Orlovsky got more money to be a backup for the Texans, by the way.)

Some people have subscribed to the thought that the Broncos could deal Cutler on draft day and then select their future signal caller in one of the first three rounds. But unless USC’s Mark Sanchez fell to them at No. 12 (which is a possibility), arguably no quarterback in this year’s draft would be ready to start as a rookie like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did last year. Prospects like Josh Freeman of Kansas State would be major projects and certainly wouldn’t be ready to be thrown to the wolves in his rookie season.

The bottom line is that Cutler probably isn’t going anywhere because the Broncos don’t have any better options at this point. It would be incredibly unwise for McDaniels and the Broncos to deal a young quarterback that has already proven he has the tools to compete in the NFL. Cutler hasn’t won anything yet, but he obviously has more than enough talent to get the Broncos to the playoffs. Situations like this usually blow over at some point.

Vince Young out 2-4 weeks with torn MCL

John Paulsen — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 04:49:35 +0000

The headline says it all. Vince Young could miss the next month with a torn MCL, according to the NFL Network’s Adam Schefter.

Chris Simms is supposed to visit the Patriots this week, but Schefter is reporting that the Titans are also interested. Kerry Collins will start in Young’s place and he makes for a pretty good fantasy backup (or starter in 2 QB leagues).

Photo courtesy of the AP.