Emeka Okafor on the trading block
Posted by John Paulsen (11/14/2009 @ 7:59 pm)

Sam Amick of the Sacramento Bee reports that the Kings are considering a trade involving Hornets big man Emeka Okafor.
A source with knowledge of the situation says the Kings are discussing a trade with New Orleans that would send Kenny Thomas to the Hornets and bring center Emeka Okafor to Sacramento.
The deal would be ideal for the Hornets, as Thomas’ expiring contract worth $8.7 million is just the kind of contract that would trim their enormous payroll. The question, of course, is whether the Kings see Okafor as a big man solution worth the five years and approximately $64 million left on his deal.
I don’t get the Hornets plan of attack for the last year or so. They have the best point guard in the NBA, yet instead of making a clear commitment to spend to build around him, they’re slashing salary again. The confusing thing is that they tried to slash salary last year when they negotiated a trade that sent Tyson Chandler to Oklahoma City, only the Thunder sent Chandler back after their doctors had a chance to look him over. Then they turned around this offseason and traded Chandler (who has a short, expensive contract) for Okafor (who has a long, expensive contract). So it looked like the Hornets were willing to make a long-term commitment to build a winner.
Now, after a 3-7 start that has Chris Paul sidelined for a few weeks with a sprained ankle, they’re ready to give Okafor away. What kind of signal does this send to Paul? He’s signed through 2011-12, but at what point does he become disgruntled? They’ve already traded away Chandler and fired Byron Scott, and now they’re looking to move a sure double-double guy in Okafor. He’s not worth his contract, but he’s still valuable, and if the Hornets want to get back to competitive, they could really use him manning the middle.
It’s not like jettisoning Okafor’s salary is going to give the Hornets any immediate salary cap space. They’re sitting at almost $72 M for next season and won’t have any flexibility until the summer of 2011. Paul is 24, so he has plenty of basketball left to play, but David West is 29, and by the time the Hornets have a chance to be competitive again, he might be 31 or 32 and on the decline.
This is a sad situation. The Hornets looked to be on the cusp of competing for a title a couple of seasons ago and now they’re starting a rebuilding process that looks like it’s going to take a while.
Line of the Night (11/4): Chris Paul
Posted by John Paulsen (11/05/2009 @ 12:40 pm)
The Hornets have struggled early on in this season, and were 1-3 heading into a home game last night against the red-hot Mavs. Chris Paul responded with 39 points (on 14-23 shooting), seven assists, five rebounds and two steals in 45 minutes of playing time. He had the high efficiency score of the night (+41). Funny thing is, it wasn’t even his high game of the week. He posted a +42 against the Knicks on Monday.
The Hornets have two All-Star caliber players (Paul and David West) and a pretty good center (Emeka Okafor), but not much else. They need a wing or two who can knock down shots and take the pressure off of Paul and West. Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson are both past their prime and Julian Wright is a fine complementary player, but he’s not a shot-maker. Stephen Jackson and Rip Hamilton are reportedly available, and they’d both be a great fit in New Orleans if the Hornets are willing to take on some long-term salary to try to make a run this season.
15 GMs rank the top 13 point guards
Posted by John Paulsen (06/01/2009 @ 2:28 pm)

I don’t know how he did it, but Chad Ford convinced 15 NBA GMs/executives to rank the top 13 point guards in the draft. If I were running a team and he asked me to do this, I would have told him to go jump off a cliff. (Or I’d have my secretary rank the players by how cute she thinks they are and pass that off as my list.)
Anyway, here are the rankings, along with an average ranking. Ford’s column has a lot more detail on each player.
1. Ricky Rubio (avg 1.9)
2. Stephen Curry (2.4)
3. Jonny Flynn (3.0)
4. Jrue Holiday (3.8)
5. Tyreke Evans (4.5)
6. Jeff Teague (6.5)
7. Brandon Jennings (6.8)
8. Eric Maynor (8.0)
9. Ty Lawson (9.5)
10. Patrick Mills (10.0)
11. Darren Collison (11.0)
12. Nick Calathes (12.0)
13. Toney Douglas (12.5)
I’m surprised that Stephen Curry moved up so much. Prior to the combine, there were still some who questioned whether or not he was even a first round talent. But apparently he put those concerns to rest. Besides, if you can shoot the ball like he can (and aren’t a complete stiff in other areas of the game), there’s a place for you in the NBA.
Brandon Jennings is hurting himself by skipping the combine and the Reebok Eurocamp. He’s going to need to go head to head with some of these players if he wants to stick in the lottery. Conversely, Jonny Flynn is impressing in his interviews and teams are happy to see that he measures over six-foot in shoes. He’s basically the same size as Chris Paul. So is Ty Lawson, but he continues to fall. I still think whoever gets him in the mid- or late-first round is going to have a starter-caliber point guard in a couple of seasons.
Florida’s Nick Calathes raised a few eyebrows when he decided to sign a three-year deal with Greek team Panathinaikos, but since he already has dual citizenship and a closer look at the contract reveals that he’d need to go in the lottery to match the financial windfall he’s going to enjoy overseas, it’s probably a good decision for the young man.
Posted in: NBA, NBA Draft, Rumors & Gossip
Tags: 2009 NBA Draft, Brandon Jennings, Brandon Jennings draft, Chad Ford, Chris Paul, Jonny Flynn, Jonny Flynn draft, NBA Draft, Nick Calathes, Nick Calathes Greece, Stephen Curry draft, top point guards, top point guards in the draft, Ty Lawson, Ty Lawson draft

How good of a prospect is Ricky Rubio?
Posted by John Paulsen (05/26/2009 @ 2:00 pm)

In the mock drafts that I’ve seen, Spaniard Ricky Rubio is the consensus #2 or #3 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. I saw him play a couple of times in last summer’s Olympics and I thought that he would make a solid NBA point guard, but I didn’t see the same things that the scouts are apparently seeing. TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott wrote a nice piece about how much potential Rubio has, and how it needs to be cultivated, not rushed to market.
At the lottery, everybody said the same admiring things about his feel for the game, handle, vision, leadership … but sometimes these ideas leap from mind to mind without ever touching ground. I found myself looking around the room and wondering: How much have you even seen Rubio play? What kind of vetting has he had?
Ricky Rubio will turn 19 in October. He has missed all kinds of games with injuries. He has played his entire early career in Spain. Almost everyone who makes the big decisions for NBA teams lives in the U.S. He has not done draft workouts.
That pretty much sums up my concerns about the kid.
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What goes through my brain…
Posted by John Paulsen (05/22/2009 @ 3:30 pm)

…when I read a Bill Simmons mailbag.
Anyway, there was a really funny moment Thursday that could have only happened at a Lakers game. Near the end of a third-quarter timeout, the camera caught Val Kilmer and three of his chins on the JumboTron, punctuating the moment by playing “Danger Zone” by Kenny Loggins. You know, a “Top Gun” homage. He took a second or two to get the joke, then unleashed one of those “Very funny, you got me, just know that I’m on a lot of meds right now” smiles. And this would have been enjoyable on its own, but they cut to someone else in the stands. …
That’s right. …
Tom Cruise!
He caught on a little quicker and did the Tom Cruise Over-Laugh. And this would have been great on its own, but the Lakers pushed it to another level: They went split-screen with Kilmer and Cruise with “Danger Zone” still blasting. As far as I was concerned, this was the most emotional reunion in Lakers history. Cruise kept laughing; Kilmer looked mildly perturbed. (After all, he’s an actor, dammit! That was 23 years ago! He’s made a lot of movies since then!) At this point, I was praying they’d cut to Anthony Edwards in Section 312 but he wasn’t there.
Ha! Great one about Anthony Edwards sitting in the upper level.
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Posted in: Humor, NBA, Video
Tags: Bill Simmons, Charles Barkley, Chris Paul, correcting Bill Simmons, ESPN, John Hollinger, Kobe Bryant, Kobe: Doin' Work, Kobe: Doin' Work review, Mike Dunleavy, Robert Horry, The Sports Guy

What kind of point guard is he?
Posted by John Paulsen (05/07/2009 @ 3:57 pm)

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?
Taking an analytical approach to these questions, I decided to bust out an Excel spreadsheet and try to come up with some answers. Below you’ll see a graph that attempts to classify the top point guards in the league. But first, a little background…
I chose to categorize each player based on two stats. First, to determine if he’s “shoot-first” or “pass-first,” I calculated the shot-to-assist ratio for each player. The bigger the number, the more of a “shoot-first” mentality the player has. Second, to determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. I thought about using turnovers per 48 minutes, but I like the idea of including assists so that playmakers are rewarded for the positive as well as the negative. Next, I calculated each player’s Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) to see if there is any correlation between these other statistics and the overall efficiency of the player in question.
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Posted in: NBA
Tags: Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Devin Harris, efficiency per minute, EPM, Jameer Nelson, Jason Kidd, John Paulsen, Jose Calderon, Mo Williams, pass-first point guards, Player Efficiency Rating, Rajon Rondo, Ramon Sessions, Ramon Sessions free agent, shoot-first point guards, Steve Nash, Tony Parker, turnover-prone point guards

Where do the Hornets go from here?
Posted by John Paulsen (04/30/2009 @ 12:21 pm)

It was a disappointing season for Chris Paul and Co. as they were unceremoniously eliminated from the playoffs last night in Denver. After last season’s near-miss against the Spurs in the Western Conference semis, along with the addition of do-it-all forward James Posey, many pundits (including myself) thought that they might be the team best positioned to threaten the Lakers’ chances of a return trip to the Finals. But it was not to be.
According to John Hollinger’s PER, Chris Paul had an even better statistical season than last year, when he was in serious contention to become the league’s MVP. David West played his usual 21/9 ball as well.
So what happened?
1. Tyson Chandler wasn’t himself. He battled injuries all year and was even traded to Oklahoma City (and subsequently untraded due to the Thunder’s concerns about his foot). Here are his stats for the last three seasons:
‘06-’07: 9.5 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 62% FG%
‘07-’08: 11.8 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 62% FG%
‘08-’09: 8.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 57% FG%
That may not seem like much of a fall off, but three points, three rebounds and a 5% decrease in field goal shooting certainly has an effect. It’s not Chandler’s fault that he had some nagging injuries, but that was part of the reason for the Hornets’ decline.
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Nuggets dismantle the Hornets, win by 58
Posted by John Paulsen (04/28/2009 @ 10:45 am)

The Nuggets matched a playoff record for win margin, beating the Hornets, 121-63, in New Orleans.
I’ll let that sink in for a moment.
The box score is amazing. The Nuggets had seven players in double-digits; the Hornets had three. The Nuggets shot 57% from the field and 50% from long range; the Hornets shot 32% and 13%, respectively. Denver outrebounded New Orleans, 41-32. The Nuggets turned the ball over 11 times; the Hornets turned it over 26 times.
In short, Denver dominated virtually every aspect of this game.
How does this happen to a team that has two All-Stars (Chris Paul and David West) and a pretty decent supporting cast? At home?
The Hornets added James Posey this offseason because they were supposed to make a run to the Finals. But things just haven’t clicked this year. One night they’ll look great and beat a contender, the next night they’ll lose at home to a bottom feeder. The Tyson Chandler on-again, off-again trade might have sent this franchise into a bit of a tailspin, and it’s not clear how long it’s going to take to straighten things out.
The NBA’s Top 10 Franchise Players
Posted by John Paulsen (04/23/2009 @ 5:35 pm)

Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:
If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?
Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.
We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.
HONORABLE MENTION
Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.
Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.
Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.
Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.
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Posted in: NBA
Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Brandon Roy, Carlos Boozer, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, John Paulsen, Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, max contracts, NBA franchise players, NBA max contracts, Paul Pierce, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Who is the best player in the NBA?, Who is worthy of a max contract?, Yao Ming

How much better off would the Blazers be had they drafted Durant instead of Oden?
Posted by John Paulsen (03/12/2009 @ 2:00 pm)

No one can fault the job that Portland GM Kevin Pritchard has done so far. In 2005, when he was the Blazers’ interim coach, he reportedly advised then-GM John Nash and Steve Patterson to draft Chris Paul at #3, but the duo instead decided to trade the pick and ended up with Martell Webster at #6. He was promoted to assistant GM in 2006, and was involved in a series of deals that resulted in the acquisition of the draft rights of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. In 2007, he was promoted to general manager. That summer, in addition to drafting Greg Oden, he turned Zach Randolph into a trade exception that he used to steal Rudy Fernandez from the Phoenix Suns.
Other than an ill-advised threat to sue anyone that tried to sign Darius Miles, it’s tough to second-guess anything that Pritchard has done in Portland.
But what if he had drafted Kevin Durant instead of Greg Oden? How much better off would the franchise be with Durant on the roster?
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NBA, NBA Draft, Rumors & Gossip
Tags: 2007 NBA Draft, Bill Simmons, Brandon Roy, Chris Paul, Durant Oden, Durant/Oden, Greg Oden, Greg Oden Bill Simmons, Greg Oden Kevin Durant, John Paulsen, Kevin Durant, Kevin Durant Bill Simmons, Kevin Pritchard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Oden Durant, Oden/Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder, Paul Allen, Portland Trail Blazers, Seattle Supersonics, The Sports Guy

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