The title of Marc Berman’s New York Post piece — “LeBron-to-Knicks hope fading” — says it all.

With each passing day, as the Knicks disgrace themselves and the Cavaliers march to their potential first NBA championship, the Knicks’ chances of free-agent glory in landing LeBron James this summer gets more remote.

A bit dramatic, don’t you think? What if the Cavs lose in the Eastern Semifinals — wouldn’t all this talk just start back up again?

James clung to his mid-November policy of not talking about his free-agent options, but he has left enough hints to New York fans that the Knicks’ bid is a longshot.

In his lone appearance at the Garden, Nov. 6, James said in strong terms the only factor is whether he can win at his new destination. At All-Star weekend, he reiterated, “It’s all about winning.”

Well, it’s not all about winning, is it? I thought LeBron’s #1 goal was to become a “global icon.” But there’s a strong argument that says that to truly become a global icon, LeBron needs an NBA championship.

As bad as the Knicks may be, if LeBron sees a scenario where he and, say, Chris Bosh can play in New York (or even the LeBron-Wade-Bosh trio) then it’s hard not to think that the Knicks would be vastly improved in just one season. Throw in a few savvy vets willing to play for the minimum for a shot at the ring and suddenly the Knicks are an Eastern Conference power.

Team sources indicated D’Antoni would be very pleased to add overshadowed free agent Joe Johnson as a fallback. D’Antoni thinks Johnson is a great piece to build around.

But Johnson, the potential re-signing of David Lee and another mid-level free agent, does not put the Knicks in position to compete for a championship.

No, it doesn’t. I like Joe Johnson, but he’s turning 29 this June and Basketball Prospectus predicts Johnson’s three-year value to be the least amongst this summer’s big-name free agents.

It sounds like the Knicks are already doing some damage control in case the Cavs win a title this summer and LeBron stays put. In that case, I suspect Chris Bosh would join Dwyane Wade in Miami and the Knicks would be looking at the likes of Johnson, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, David Lee and Rudy Gay. Two of those players would probably get the Knicks to the playoffs, but they aren’t going to win a title anytime soon.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Gene Wojciechowski makes a strong case that this summer’s three biggest free agents should put their salaries aside and team up in NYC.

But if James, Wade and Bosh truly want to make history, they could do the unthinkable and split the Knicks’ $33 million three ways. It would cost them salary money, but can you imagine how much they’d make on the back end if they started reeling in NBA titles? In New York?

Whatever they’d lose on their paycheck stubs, they’d make up in endorsements. And it’s not as if they’re filing simple federal tax returns these days. According to a 2009 Forbes analysis, LeBron earned about $42.4 million in salary and endorsements — more than Britney Spears, Jay-Z or Tom Cruise and almost as much as Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie combined.

Wade was No. 12 on Sports Illustrated’s 2009 Fortunate 50, earning $26.4 million in salary and endorsements. Bosh didn’t make the top 50, but he is making $15.7 million from the Raptors this season.

Anyway, they all can afford to do something daring. Just think: James, Wade and Bosh at Madison Square Garden.

Seriously, who would touch them? Wade at guard. LeBron at point forward. Bosh in the post or on the wing. Three good guys who could handle the New York media. Three seven-year veterans who understand you get only so many chances to hug the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Three singular players who know careers are defined by championships, not just checkbooks.

It’s fun to think about, but does anyone believe this is actually going to happen? Will these three NBA superstars put their egos aside and take $5-$6 million less per season to team up in New York? Wojciechowski’s point that they’d make even more in endorsements is completely valid, but leaving $30-$35 million on the table is a tough pill to swallow.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Ric Bucher wrote the following in the ESPN rumors section:

…since Raptors PF/C Chris Bosh made it clear over All-Star weekend that he’s not interested in leaving Toronto to be the second banana elsewhere.

Here’s what Bosh actually said, courtesy of the Toronto Sun.

“I was just looking at what people say and it’s like: ‘Chris is going to go here and play with him or this, this and that.’ I’m like: Wait a minute. I feel like I should be built around. And maybe that’s just my ego talking, but I feel that I’m a very good player in this league and I’m only going to get better. So … maybe we should be getting somebody (in Toronto).”

From the what-did-he-mean-by-that portion of the program came this little tidbit from Bosh: “Things you like and dislike change daily,” Bosh said, “(which makes it) impossible almost to not only predict the future, but predict your feelings.”

How do you leave this exchange thinking that Bosh “made it clear that he’s not interested in leaving Toronto to be the second banana elsewhere”? To me, it sounds like a guy who is angry at the media for assuming that he’s leaving Toronto this summer. He suggests that the team should be “getting somebody” in Toronto, but the Raptors aren’t going to have any cap space for the next couple of summers — they did their “getting” last summer when they signed Hedo Turkoglu.

So if the Raptors finish the season with 44 or 45 wins and bow out in the first round of the playoffs, does anyone really think that Bosh isn’t going to think long and hard about playing elsewhere? Being “built around” is fine, but as history has shown, it takes two superstars to win a NBA championship, and the Raptors only have one.

Bucher is taking Bosh’s words as gospel — that he’s not leaving Toronto to play with LeBron or Wade elsewhere — but in the very same interview Bosh admits what he likes or doesn’t like changes daily, and says it’s impossible to predict the future. I have no problem if Raptor fans find comfort in Bosh’s words, but Bucher is making that extra leap by saying that Bosh has ruled out playing somewhere else, and that’s simply not what the man said.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

In his latest (6900-word?) column, Bill Simmons plays GM and suggests several “fake trade offers” for teams looking to save money this season.

He made an interesting point about Chris Bosh.

As I wrote in July, there’s nothing more dangerous than a GM worried about his job who dumps the team’s long-term interests to protect the short term. Everything Bryan Colangelo did this past summer screamed, “I need to keep my job!!!” Now the Raptors are hamstrung with an overpaid, below-.500 roster that doubles as the worst defensive team of this decade — seriously, what did they think would happen when Jose Calderon, Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani were three of the team’s best four guys? — and Chris Bosh seems like a mortal lock to leave. You can’t do the Frank Drebin Memorial “Please disperse, nothing to see here, please disperse” routine. Raptors fans are too smart. They get it.

By dealing Bosh, Colangelo would be effectively saying, “I made some mistakes, we need to press the RESET button and start over.” Translation: “Fire me, I deserve it.” Because nobody would ever sabotage his job like that, he probably will keep Bosh, make a smaller trade and pray things turn around. If they don’t, the Raptors will get nothing for him. Not fair to the Raptor Truthers. At all.

If Colangelo is feeling the heat, then it is unlikely that he’ll move Bosh before the February deadline. He’s going to have a tough time getting equal value because the whole league knows that since the Raptors are losing, Bosh is likely to bolt. Why would other teams trade for a guy that they can sign in six months?

Well, one reason to believe that Bosh may indeed be on the move is that a team out there (like, say, the Miami Heat, who have their own superstar to worry about) might want to acquire Bosh now and not wait until the summer to try to sign him. In the case of the Heat, it would be doubly important because trading for Bosh would almost certainly convince Wade to stay in sunny Miami next summer. (Unless, of course, he already has other plans.)

Doesn’t a deal that would send Bosh and the bad contracts of Marcus Banks and Reggie Evans to Miami for Michael Beasley and Jermaine O’Neal’s expiring contract make a lot of sense for both teams? Yes, it’s not equal value for Bosh, but the Raptors would get a good young player (Beasley) and would save almost $10 million next season. In fact, they’d have $8 million of cap space to spend if they so choose. All of this for a guy they have almost no chance of re-signing anyway.

I know Heat fans would want to do this. What about Raptor fans?

Photo from fOTOGLIF

We knew this was coming eventually. We weren’t sure which soon-to-be free agent would be the first one to crack (Bosh? Stoudemire? Joe Johnson?), but the smart money was on Bosh since it has been some time since the Raptors were part of the East’s elite. The team is off to a 7-13 start, punctuated by last night’s 146-115 loss to the Hawks.

Per the Toronto Star:

“The defensive effort hasn’t been there for a while. We didn’t magically appear last on the charts defensively,” said Chris Bosh. “I mean, tonight was just a total embarrassment. We couldn’t stop anybody. We haven’t stopped anybody all year.”

It’s nice that he’s using the term “we” there, but Bosh has a reputation for being a pretty good defender, and the guys around him — Jose Calderon, Hedo Turkoglu, Andrea Bargnani — are far more offensive-minded.

Then there’s this bit of info from the Miami Herald…

Not only will the Heat’s chances of signing Chris Bosh next summer be helped if the Raptors keep struggling, but a former Raptors official said Bosh doesn’t like Toronto’s cold winters. Bosh isn’t keen on playing in his native Texas but has said the Heat “seems to be an attractive place, playing with Dwyane Wade and playing in Miami.”

If the Raptors keep playing sub-.500 ball, there’s a great chance that Bosh lands in Miami next year. If that happens, Dwyane Wade is almost sure to re-sign, and the Heat will once again join the East’s elite.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

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Per the NY Times…

“I want to be in Miami, and I hope everything works out that way,” Wade said Thursday. “I want to be one of those players that stays with one franchise for his entire career.”

“Next year will be a big year for myself and for the team, but the plan has always been to stay with the Heat, and that’s still the plan,” he said. “I think everything will work out.”

The NY Post went a step further, asking Wade if the Knicks or Nets had a chance of signing him.

And while admitting the Heat were still the favorites, for his services, he pretty much dashed any hope of the Nets or Knicks getting him. After saying firmly “The Heat” as the frontrunner, he was asked point blank if the Nets or Knicks had a chance.

“Not in my mind. I’m not thinking about the Knicks or the Nets. Only when we play them,” Wade said.

In a piece about which teams will project to have a lot of cap space next summer, I wrote this about the Heat…

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

There might be a little chicken and the egg thing going on here. In order for the Heat to attract a top free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, they need to have a commitment from Dwyane Wade that he’ll re-sign. (Last summer, Baron Davis learned this the hard way when Elton Brand bolted for Philly.) But in order to get Wade to re-sign, he needs to know that there’s help on the way.

Right now, the Nets (with a nice core of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the Knicks (great market) look to be the two biggest threats to stealing Wade away. In his own words, he doesn’t think there’s much of a chance of that happening.

But a lot can happen in a year.

ESPN’s Chad Ford lists nine teams that will have significant cap space next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

1. Nets ($25-$27 million)
2. Knicks ($24 million, assuming they don’t sign anyone for longer than a year)
3. Heat ($20-$22 million)
4. Timberwolves ($16-$18 million)
5. Bulls ($13-$15 million minus whatever they give Tyrus Thomas)
6. Thunder ($14-$15 million)
7. Rockets ($12-$14 million minus whatever they give to Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes)
8. Clippers ($10-$11 million)
9. Kings ($9-$10 million)

This assumes a cap of $53.6 million, which is an optimistic view. The cap could drop below $50 million.

It takes about $14 million of space to sign a max-contract player, so even under these optimistic circumstances, there really are only five teams — the Nets, Knicks, Heat, T-Wolves and Thunder — that will have that kind of space. (The Bulls are likely to keep Thomas and the Rockets are likely to retain Landry and Hayes, though they could make another move here or there to put them in position to add a superstar.)

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

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Now that the dust has pretty much settled in the 2009 NBA offseason, ESPN’s Chad Ford previews the free agents that are likely to be available next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

No subscription? Check out our preview from last December. I plan to update it once this year’s restricted free agents are settled, as there are still a few looking for long-term deals.

Right now, it’s looking like the 2010 unrestricted free agent class could include the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Paul Pierce, David Lee, Manu Ginobili, Shaquille O’Neal, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, Tyson Chandler, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Ramon Sessions, Ray Felton, Nate Robinson, Travis Outlaw, John Salmons and Al Harrington.

I expect at least a few of those names will strike long-term deals before next summer, but still, that’s quite the list, and it doesn’t even include the potential restricted free agents from the draft class of 2006 (i.e. Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay, etc.)

Chris Bosh has said in no uncertain terms that he expects that the next contract he signs will be the maximum allowed under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.

In other words, it’s a max contract or no deal as far as Bosh is concerned.

Asked yesterday if he felt he was worth such a contract, Bosh didn’t hesitate. “Without a doubt. I really don’t see any negotiation about that part.”

But for anyone wanting to know the direction he might be leaning when it comes to his future, Bosh said again that he has not made up his mind.

As for taking less than a max deal to allow Colangelo to beef up the rest of the lineup, Bosh doesn’t sound like a guy who would consider that.

“An old school guy told me: ‘Take advantage. You can’t play this game forever. Make sure you maximize your potential,’ ” Bosh said.

I think that there are probably 10 to 15 players worth a max deal. The no-brainers are LeBron, Kobe, Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul. Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Brandon Roy and Derrick Rose are the up-and-comers. Then there are Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki who are all over 30. The next tier of guys — Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Tony Parker, Carmelo Anthony, Carlos Boozer and Chauncey Billups — are all great, but are they really worth max money?

The problem I have with Bosh is that Toronto had a pretty good roster this season and they completely missed the playoffs. He is playing with one of the best point guards in the league (Jose Calderon) and he had another former All-Star on the roster as well (Jermaine O’Neal and Shawn Marion). If he’s really a max contract guy, shouldn’t he be able to carry his team to the playoffs? Obviously, a superstar needs a good supporting cast, but the Raptors had fewer wins than New Jersey, Milwaukee (who played without Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut for much of the season), Charlotte, Indiana, Detroit and Philadelphia. One could argue that Toronto has more talent top to bottom than any of those teams, so why couldn’t Bosh lead the Raptors to the playoffs?

I definitely think he deserves a big contract (something around $13 million per season sounds about right), but there’s a tendency for teams to give their best player a max deal no matter how they stack up against the other superstars in the league. Michael Redd, Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion, Allen Iverson, Jermaine O’Neal, Tracy McGrady, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Mike Bibby and Vince Carter all made more than $15 million last season and while some are better than others, I don’t think any of those players are worth that kind of money.