John Hollinger writes in his latest PER Diem (Insider subscription required) that LeBron’s best bet for long term success may not be in Cleveland…or New York…or New Jersey/Brooklyn…
And it’s especially worth noting that if the Cavs are back in the 45-50 win range this season, King James might be a much more portable commodity this coming summer. If he’s looking at a Cleveland lineup with one majestically talented player and several spare parts, one would think the comparison to such arrangements in New York or New Jersey wouldn’t be dramatically different.
But those aren’t close to being the most palatable changes of uniform available. For instance, it bears mentioning that joining the Chicago squad LeBron’s team lost to Thursday night would be dramatically different. With a young star point guard, quality big men and lots of secondary help, the Bulls — who could get as much as $20 million under the cap if John Salmons opts out of his contract, conveniently opening a spot in the lineup for LeBron at the same time — would offer a more clear opportunity for long-term success.
Let me throw out an even crazier proposition — Minnesota. The Wolves will have the cap space to make a run at LeBron, depending on a few variables — or at the very least can get there fairly easily if they know there’s a chance for a player of this caliber. (Declining an option on Ryan Gomes, for instance, is done much more easily if it allows you to replace him with the best player in the league.)
Minnesota is generally thought of as one of the NBA’s least-desirable relocation options, but let’s consider it from a winning perspective. Who would you rather play with for the next five years: Al Jefferson or Anderson Varejao? Kevin Love or Ilgauskas? Ricky Rubio or Mo Williams? Jonny Flynn or West? Ramon Sessions or Daniel Gibson? Next year’s fourth pick or next year’s 24th? It’s obvious, isn’t it?
Don’t get me wrong — the T-Wolves would be a good fit for LeBron, but he’d be a pretty good fit anywhere. I just don’t see him taking his show from one cold, small-market Midwestern city to another cold, small-market Midwestern city. If he doesn’t stay in Cleveland, then there seem to be three real options:
1. Brooklyn Nets
With Devin Harris and Brook Lopez locked up for the next few years, the Nets have two All-Star caliber players already on the roster at two of the toughest positions to fill — point guard and center. Is the penetrating Harris the perfect fit alongside LeBron? Not necessarily, but if the Nets can find a sharpshooting off guard (Courtney Lee?) and face up power forward (a la Rashard Lewis), the Nets would really be in business. Plus, the move to Brooklyn would take away the stigma of playing in New Jersey.
2. Chicago Bulls
It would break the city of Cleveland’s heart if LeBron fled to the Windy City. New York or Brooklyn? Cleveland fans wouldn’t like it, but they’d understand. But if LeBron heads to Chicago, home of the team that stepped on the Cavs’ throats so many times during the Jordan era, the city might explode. From a pure basketball point of view, it’s a nice fit. They already have Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and maybe Tyrus Thomas. Chicago is also a threat to pry Dwyane Wade out of Miami.
3. New York Knicks
This is more about MSG and the spotlight than who the Knicks have on the roster. Playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system would be nice, and if the Knicks can unload either Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries, they’d have enough cap space to sign another free agent to max deal. This might be a case of the Knicks having to coax Chris Bosh out of Toronto or Amare Stoudemire out of Phoenix before being able to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line.
We’re only a couple of weeks into the season and the talk is already starting. The Cavs have plenty of time to morph into a 60-win team, but right now they don’t look it. And the longer they struggle, the louder the drum beat is going to sound.
After an 0-2 start to the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers were riding a three-game winning streak into Thursday night’s home game against the Bulls. Here are the highlights:
The Cleveland faithful might think that LeBron was fouled on his last drive, but after taking a couple of looks at it, I think it was a clean play. The defender is entitled to his space, and he’s allowed to jump in the air as long as he doesn’t jump forward. This is called the “principle of verticality,” which means that a defensive player is entitled to his vertical cylinder. Joakim Noah’s defense on the play wasn’t a perfect example of this (as his body was drifting toward the basket a bit), but it was a good defensive play. LeBron was in a tough spot and obviously jumped into Noah looking for the call and the refs didn’t bail him out.
There are a couple of other things to take from this game:
1. Mo Williams’ ineffectiveness
He was 4-13 from the field (including 1-7 from long range). He did have six assists, but Mo is a scorer and he needs to be more efficient than this.
2. The Bulls’ balance
Chicago had seven players score at least seven points, and Luol Deng led the Bulls with 15. Derrick Rose didn’t shoot the ball well, but still scored 14 points and dropped 11 dimes.
The Cavs drop to 3-3 with the loss, while the Bulls are 3-2.
This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.
For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back on Saturday for the preview of the Atlantic Division.
Cleveland Cavaliers (2) By now, everyone knows that LeBron James is set to become a free agent next summer. Feeling the proverbial heat, the Cavs swung a trade for Shaquille O’Neal hoping that he’ll be able to put the team over the top. It would be tough for LeBron to justify bolting Cleveland if the franchise is coming off of a championship, so the Cavs are “all in.” In addition to acquiring Shaq, they signed Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and re-upped with Anderson Varejao. It might take some time for this roster to gel, but there’s no doubt that the Cavs have enough talent to go the distance. While making the transition from a declining Zydrunas Ilgauskas to a declining Shaq has its advantages, it’s going to be tough for LeBron to find driving lanes with Shaq and Varejao clogging the lane. Neither can shoot the ball effectively outside of 10 feet, so their defenders will be better able to get to the paint to help on LeBron. Look for the Cavs to run a lot of pick-and-rolls with LeBron and Shaq, which will force Shaq’s defender away from the basket. This should help, but there still is the matter of Varejao’s man defending the basket. It’s crucial that the Cavs get good shooting from Parker, Mo Williams, Delonte West and Daniel Gibson. Those players have to make the defense pay when it sags to help on LeBron. From a salary cap perspective, the Cavs realized that it wouldn’t do any good to have cap space if the payroll number keeps falling, and the Varejao signing ate up whatever space they would have otherwise had. In the unlikely event that Shaq turns out to be a complete disaster, they could always move him before the trade deadline in a last-ditch attempt to retool before the playoffs. For obvious reasons, of all the teams in the league, the Cavs may have the most riding on the 2009-10 season.
Dwyane Wade is in Chicago right now for the 3rd annual “Wade’s World” charity weekend. The festivities include a benefit dinner, a kick-off party, school visits, a bowling party, a youth summit and a school supply giveaway. But the event that D.Wade really wanted to promote was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday night at the Harris Theater at Millenium Park. (For tickets or information call 312-334-7777 or visit www.harristheaterchicago.org. All proceeds go towards the Wade’s World Foundation.) Go to the foundation’s website for more information about the weekend’s festivities and events.
D.Wade took a few minutes out of his busy schedule to chat with The Scores Report about the weekend, what it was like to win an Olympic gold medal and where he might sign next summer.
TSR: D. Wade. How are you doing?
DW: I’m good, boss. I’m good.
TSR: It’s a pleasure to talk to one of the best – if not the best – basketball players on the planet.
DW: Aw, well, I appreciate that.
TSR: I saw your itinerary for this “Wade’s World” Weekend and it looks like you are about to present a check to the William Leonard Public Library. What does it mean for you to be able to give back to your hometown?
DW: It means a lot. Whether it’s a big contribution or a small contribution to be able to give back to not only my hometown and my community, but to others as well. I’ve been very blessed and I think it’s my job to continue to help others that are in dire need, like the William Leonard Public Library in Robbins.
TSR: There’s a jam-packed weekend of activities. One thing I wanted to ask you about was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday. Can you tell me a little bit about that?
DW: Yeah, you look at the whole weekend and we’ve got many different events going on. Some of them you’re going to have fun and some of them are fundraisers, but I think the biggest thing is the one that Gatorade really got behind was the “Chicago Has Talent” because it’s showcasing our kids and giving them an opportunity in life. I think we’re going to have between 10-15 different groups of kids perform in front of a crowd of around 1,000 people, and get a chance to showcase their talent. And the top 3 will get an opportunity to do some special things, but the winner is going to go on and do some great things and get an opportunity to be seen. I think our job is to give them that chance and that hope that they can do it. So I’m looking forward to it. I can’t wait until that Saturday event. That’s probably the biggest event to me of the week of all the things we’re doing.
TSR: That’s at the Harris Theater at 7:00 PM at Millenium Park and tickets (which start at $15) are available.
DW: Yeah, that’s at the Harris Theater and it’s just after we get done with a youth summit where we have a panel full of celebrities and powerful, important people in the community, and they get to talk to kids for a couple of hours about violence and sex, and about so many different topics, and that’s actually right before the show.
TSR: And that’s at the UIC Forum at 725 W. Roosevelt Road.
DW: Yeah.
TSR: So do you mind if I ask you a couple of basketball-related questions?
I just watched the first four and even when you know how things turn out, they’re still pretty exciting. He truly was the best player ever to play the game.
The two-time NBA All-Star said Monday that he and the Jazz have “mutually agreed” to a trade, and it would be “a beautiful thing” if he wound up reunited with Olympic teammate Dwyane Wade on the Heat.
“We first came here for tax reasons and fell in love with it,” Boozer said, taking a break from his campers. “We love the palm trees, the laid-back attitude, the sun, quality of life. It’s like paradise here, and I would love to be part of the Heat. They’re a very good team, and I’m real close to some of the guys. Dwyane and I started to get close at the Athens Olympics in 2004, and I’d love to play on his team. Plus, I already live here. I’m just waiting to see what happens.”
The Heat have a few trade chips, but when considering Boozer, who is in the final year of his contract, the Jazz aren’t going to want to take only expiring salaries in a trade. They might as well keep him for the year and hope they can make some noise in the playoffs.
Udonis Haslem is a good player, but he’s in the final year of his deal. Would Miami be willing to part with Michael Beasley? Would Jerry Sloan even want him? Miami may need to get a third team involved to facilitate this deal.
When the Pistons signed Ben Gordon, most reports pinned the contract at about $55 million over five seasons. But Chicago Now has the real numbers and they are a bit higher.
09-10 $10,000,000
10-11 $10,800,000
11-12 $11,600,000
12-13 $12,400,000
13-14 $13,200,000 (Player Option)
5 Years for $58,000,000.
He also has a clause for incentives which are considered unlikely (meaning he didn’t reach them last season), but I don’t specifically know what they are.
Ben Gordon came out ahead by taking the QO and was the first person to do so. Now, even looking at the 5/50 offer the Bulls made, Gordon was the clear winner by waiting even disregarding the circumstances that at the time of the 5/50 offer he was the best or second best player on a team expected to contend for a championship.
Gordon has a reputation for being a below average defender and he isn’t a playmaker. He’s a scorer, and sometimes he displays poor shot selection. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — I’m surprised that the Pistons made an offer this strong, especially since it turns out that the Bulls never even made an offer to Gordon this summer. I think Detroit will come to regret this contract, but only time will tell.
The NBA offseason is by no means over, but the lion’s share is behind us, so it’s a good time to take a look back at a few of the…um…let’s say “questionable” decisions of the summer. Here are my Top 10, in no particular order. Feel free to add to the list if I missed something.
1. Trevor Ariza plays spiteful hardball…and loses.
Let’s get this straight — the Lakers offered Ariza the same deal he was getting on the open market, and he refused since the Lakers could have offered more, but didn’t? Um, okay. David Lee (the agent, not the Knicks forward) says that Ariza wanted to go somewhere where he’d be “appreciated.” Lee overestimated the market for his client, and the Lakers quickly moved on to acquire Ron Artest. Now instead of playing for the world champs, Ariza is stuck in Houston on a team that faces a very uncertain future. Lee now says that Ariza turned down a deal worth $9 million more, but still picked Houston. It sounds to me like he’s just trying to save face.
2. Grizzlies acquire Zach Randolph.
Once the Clippers traded for Randolph (and his toxic contract) last season, I thought the bar for NBA general managers had hit a new low thanks to Mike Dunleavy and his wily ways. But Dunleavy proved that he wasn’t the dumbest GM in the league when he convinced the Memphis Grizzlies to take on the final two years Randolph’s contract at the tune of $33.3 million. Remember that $25 million or so of cap space that the Grizzlies were going to have next summer? Yeah, that’s down to about $8 million with this brilliant move. Just when it looked like Chris Wallace was going to rehab his image after the Pau Gasol trade — Marc Gasol panning out, trading for O.J. Mayo — he goes and does this. Sigh.
Portland is making a push for Utah forward Paul Millsap.
The Portland Trail Blazers elected Friday not to wait on trade possibilities, deciding instead to offer Utah Jazz restricted free agent Paul Millsap a four-year contract worth an estimated $32 million-to-$36 million, according to sources with knowledge of the Blazers’ plans.
This is more compelling than your average, run-of-the-mill restricted free agent signing because a few days ago the Blazers were rumored to be involved in a three-way trade involving Chicago and Utah where the Bulls would have acquired Carlos Boozer, sending Kirk Hinrich to Portland and Tyrus Thomas to Utah.
But those trade talks stalled in part because the Bulls were not prepared to surrender Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas (who would have been Utah-bound) without getting back promising Portland guard Jerryd Bayless in return in addition to Boozer.
Since the Blazers didn’t want to give up Bayless, they’ve made the decision to extend an offer to Millsap, which puts the pressure on the Jazz to move Boozer. The contract is frontloaded, so if Utah were to have both players on the roster it would put the team deep into luxury tax territory.
Another interesting thing about this move by the Blazers is that Millsap plays the same position as LaMarcus Aldridge, so either they (1) plan on playing Aldridge at center, (2) plan on bringing Millsap off the bench or (3) aren’t optimistic that they can keep Aldridge, who is eligible for an extension this summer. The bad news for the Blazers is that the Jazz have seven days to decide whether or not they’ll match the offer, and during that time Portland’s cap space is tied up, so they can’t make an offer to another free agent. But other than Lamar Odom, Allen Iverson and Andre Miller, there isn’t much out there in the way of unrestricted free agents, so it doesn’t make sense to hold onto the cap space if they aren’t going to use it elsewhere.
If the Blazers can pry away Millsap for $8-$9 million per season, it will be a great move. That’s a good value for a young power forward has proven that he has a potential to be an All-Star-caliber player. But I’d expect that the Jazz will be able to trade Boozer and get a good young player (of Tyrus Thomas’s caliber) in return. There are a number of teams that are interested, including the Bulls, Pistons, Heat and Knicks.
I’d also expect this deal to bring David Lee’s contract expectations back to Earth. I think he and Millsap are about on the same level value-wise, with Millsap having a small edge due to his ability to score in the post.
The Utah Jazz have locked up at least one of their big men.
The Utah Jazz and center Mehmet Okur have agreed in principle to a two-year contract extension worth just under $21 million, according to NBA front-office sources.
Okur could have been a free agent this summer but elected on June 30 to complete the final season on his current contract with the Jazz at $9 million.
Sources told ESPN.com that Okur and the Jazz have quickly reached terms to extend the contract by two more seasons at $20.8 million starting in 2010-11.
I pegged Okur’s value at about $8-$9 million per season, but like most of my estimates, I bought into the idea that teams were going to be more frugal this offseason. Okur is a 6′11″ face up center who averaged 17.0 points and 7.7 rebounds this season. He also has terrific range for a big man, nailing almost 45% of his three point attempts. He’s not a factor on help defense, but with his girth he’s pretty good one-on-one in the post.
Paul Millsap is a restricted free agent, but hasn’t yet signed an offer sheet with another team. Carlos Boozer elected to play one more year in Utah, but there is talk that he may be headed to Chicago as part of a three-team trade involving Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas. If Utah pulls the trigger, they’d be building around a core of Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Thomas, Millsap and Okur. It doesn’t make much sense to keep both Boozer and Millsap around, as they are very similar players. It seems the Jazz feel that Millsap is the better value, but would like to get something in return for Boozer. Thomas wouldn’t represent equal value, but it’s tough to get equal value these days.
By now, everyone knows that LeBron James is set to become a free agent next summer. Feeling the proverbial heat, the Cavs swung a trade for Shaquille O’Neal hoping that he’ll be able to put the team over the top. It would be tough for LeBron to justify bolting Cleveland if the franchise is coming off of a championship, so the Cavs are “all in.” In addition to acquiring Shaq, they signed Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and re-upped with Anderson Varejao. It might take some time for this roster to gel, but there’s no doubt that the Cavs have enough talent to go the distance. While making the transition from a declining Zydrunas Ilgauskas to a declining Shaq has its advantages, it’s going to be tough for LeBron to find driving lanes with Shaq and Varejao clogging the lane. Neither can shoot the ball effectively outside of 10 feet, so their defenders will be better able to get to the paint to help on LeBron. Look for the Cavs to run a lot of pick-and-rolls with LeBron and Shaq, which will force Shaq’s defender away from the basket. This should help, but there still is the matter of Varejao’s man defending the basket. It’s crucial that the Cavs get good shooting from Parker, Mo Williams, Delonte West and Daniel Gibson. Those players have to make the defense pay when it sags to help on LeBron. From a salary cap perspective, the Cavs realized that it wouldn’t do any good to have cap space if the payroll number keeps falling, and the Varejao signing ate up whatever space they would have otherwise had. In the unlikely event that Shaq turns out to be a complete disaster, they could always move him before the trade deadline in a last-ditch attempt to retool before the playoffs. For obvious reasons, of all the teams in the league, the Cavs may have the most riding on the 2009-10 season.
TSR: There’s a jam-packed weekend of activities. One thing I wanted to ask you about was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday. Can you tell me a little bit about that?
