College Football Week 6, NFL Week 5 Free Picks

LSU vs. Mississippi State, 7:00PM ET
Zach Mettenberger joined the Heisman race with his stellar performance last Saturday versus Georgia. Unfortunately for him and the rest of the Tigers, the defense was downright brutal trying to defend Aaron Murray and the UGA offense. LSU has issues in its defensive backfield and it uncharacteristically didn’t generate any pressure with its front four last weekend. The Tigers are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four conference games, while the Bulldogs are 5-1 against the number in their last six home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the value with the home dog.
FREE PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE +7

Arizona State vs. Notre Dame, 7:30PM ET
While Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix remain some of the best defenders in the country, Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t been nearly as impressive this season as it was a season ago. Meanwhile, junior quarterback Taylor Kelly has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of Arizona State’s first four games and junior transfer Jaelen Strong has racked up 433 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Fighting Irish could have a difficult time keeping up on the fast track of Cowboys Stadium and their offense isn’t nearly consistent enough to keep pace. Brian Kelly’s squad is 0-5-1 against the spread in its last six games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points with ASU.
FREE PICK: ARIZONA STATE -6

Lions vs. Packers, 1:00PM ET
The Lions are coming off a statement game against the Bears but they’ve always struggled in Green Bay. They’re 0-4 against the spread in their last four games versus the Packers and 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Lambeau Field. Detroit has also had trouble over the years away from Ford Field, and is 1-4 against the number in its lat five road games. Green Bay should be well rested coming off the bye and is well aware that it can’t fall further behind in the NFC North. Expect Aaron Rodgers’ best effort and for the Pack to win in a rout.
FREE PICK: PACKERS -7

Saints vs. Bears, 1:00PM ET
The Saints are firing on all cylinders offensively, while Rob Ryan has made an immediate impact for their defense. Despite injuries, Ryan is getting the most out of his players and is generate consistent pressure on a weekly basis. That said, the Saints are coming off a short week of practice and had to leave a day early for Chicago because of inclement weather. Not only has their routine been affected, but they’re also taking on a Bears team that will be plenty pissed off after their ugly performance a week ago in Detroit. The Bears are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, while the home team is 4-0-2 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.
FREE PICK: BEARS PICK’EM

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NFL News & Notes: Titus Young, Mark Sanchez and More

Let’s spin around the NFL…

Jets to try and trade Sanchez? Good luck.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested on NFL Live that the Jets will look to trade Mark Sanchez before Week 1 if Geno Smith shows that he’s ready to play as a rookie. To that, I reply: Good luck. Teams won’t want to take on the $8.5 million in guaranteed money that Sanchez is currently owed on his contract. (And if some team does then its just as insane as the Jets were for taking Sanchez with the fifth overall pick in the 2009 draft.) The NFL is a quarterback-driven league and there are a plenty of quarterback-needy teams around. But there are only a handful of quarterbacks in the NFL that can elevate the talent around them and Sanchez isn’t one of them. He’s a consistently average signal-caller that buckles under pressure and can’t avoid making costly mistakes. Any team that would be willing to part with draft picks and $8.5 million in guaranteed money is likely desperate for a quarterback because its roster is devoid of talent. How is Sanchez going to make a losing situation better? He’d be better off going to a team that already has an established starter so that he can be the backup.

Titus Young needs help.
You don’t need to be a shrink to realize that Titus Young needs serious help after he was arrested yet again in California last Friday. That makes three arrests in less than a week for the embattled wide receiver, who was released by the Rams back in February less than two weeks after he was claimed off waivers from the Lions. His father says that his son has a disorder that causes his brain to be compressed against the front of his skull and that Titus hasn’t been taking his prescribed medication. Forget football – this kid needs serious help. And somebody better give him that help before he winds up hurting himself or someone else (again).

The Chiefs made an interesting hire.
According to Dan Hinxman of the Reno Gazette-Journal, Chris Ault has agreed to a consultant position with the Chiefs. Why is this noteworthy? Because Ault is known as the guru of the ‘pistol offense,’ which had great success when he was the head coach at Nevada from 2004 to when he retired last December. Andy Reid runs the West Coast, but one would surmise that he’s ready to open up his playbook to incorporate the pistol formation, which could benefit running back Jamaal Charles. (I can’t imagine that Alex Smith would run the read-option on a consistent basis, although he has more mobility than people give him credit for.)

Did the Bills shift Nix out of the GM role too late?
Buddy Nix has had a rough go of things in Buffalo since taking over the mantle of general manager in 2010. Hindsight is always 20/20 but he’s made a handful of questionable decisions over the years, including overpaying Ryan Fitzpatrick and passing on the likes of Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson in previous drafts. Less than a month after he helped the Bills land former Florida State signal-caller E.J. Manuel to help run Doug Marrone’s offense, Nix will step away from his role as GM and transition to Special Assistant. It’s widely assumed that Buffalo will hand the GM role over to Doug Whaley, the Assistant General Manager and Director of Player Personnel. If Manuel doesn’t pan out, Bills fans will be left wondering why the team’s front office didn’t move Nix out of the role much sooner.

Will Carimi even make Chicago’s roster?
The Bears seemingly landed a steal in the 2011 NFL Draft when they plucked Wisconsin offensive tackle Gabe Carimi off the board with the 29th overall pick. But as it turns out, the former Badger was just the latest in a long line of brutal first-round picks by ex-GM Jerry Angelo. Carimi missed nearly all of his rookie season with a knee injury and when he came back in 2012, he was brutal. Now it appears he might not even make the 2013 roster after he was a no-show for the first day of Chicago’s OTAs on Monday. The workouts aren’t mandatory, but one would think that a player on the roster bubble would want to show a new coaching staff that he isn’t the gigantic bust that everyone believes him to be.

NFL Quick Hits: Dumervil, Urlacher and the mess that is the Bills

+ After building two Super Bowl teams in the past 13 years, it’s hard to fathom why people continue to doubt Ozzie Newsome. Once Ed Reed signed with the Texans last week and joined the likes of Dannell Ellerbe, Ray Lewis, Bernard Pollard and Paul Kruger as players that will no longer don purple and black, people started to question Newsome’s decision making. But he reminded everyone that he’s one of the best GMs in the NFL when he inked Elvis Dumervil to a five-year, $35 million contract over the weekend. Dumervil’s cap hit this year will only be $2.5 million, which is why Baltimore was able to fit him under the cap. Granted, his contract will still add up to $35 million over the next five years but for the time being, Newsome displayed shrewd maneuvering by landing the top free agent on the market in the same offseason that he gave franchise quarterback Joe Flacco a massive new deal. Dumervil will return to outside linebacker in Baltimore’s 3-4 defense after leading the NFL in sacks from that same position in 2009. The Ravens, folks, are going to be just fine.

+ Ted Thompson once drafted Justin Harrell in the first round. Ozzie Newsome invested top selections in Kyle Boller and Mark Clayton. Jerry Reese whiffed on Aaron Ross. The best GMs in the NFL all miss – it’s part of the gig. But Buddy Nix’s lack of foresight in the past two drafts could ultimately cost him his job. Since Nix drafted him with the 34th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Aaron Williams has struggled mightily in coverage and is entering a make-or-break season. For those that need a refresher, Williams was selected ahead of both Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick. It’s hard to blame Nix for passing on Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder in the first round that year, but Kaepernick could have been a perfect fit in former head coach Chan Gailey’s system. Nix also selected former NC State receiver T.J. Graham ahead of Russell Wilson in the third round last April, and we all know how that turned out for the Seahawks. Again, it’s not completely fair to criticize Nix for passing on Dalton, Kaepernick or even Wilson, because a lot of GMs of quarterback-needy teams missed on those players, too. But when you miss on those guys because you handed Ryan Fitzpatrick a six-year, $59 million contract and now you have to play Russian roulette with Geno Smith, Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib, you leave yourself open for condemnation. It’s not all Gailey’s fault for the current mess that resides in Buffalo.

+ Whether they wait until Nnamdi Asomugha and/or Charles Woodson’s market value drops even lower or attempt to out-draft Craig Dahl (that shouldn’t be difficult), it’s hard to imagine that 49ers GM Trent Baalke is done upgrading his secondary. But I also don’t think San Francisco is overly concerned about its defensive backfield. When Justin Smith tore his triceps against the Patriots last December, the 49ers were victimized for 443 yards through the air and their secondary was never the same after that point (neither was Aldon Smith for that matter). It’s not the back end that makes San Francisco’s defense so dangerous, but its front seven. That’s why its understandable that Baalke didn’t want to invest $40-plus million to retain safety Dashon Goldson, who signed with the Bucs two weeks ago. Baalke has a knack for finding bargains in free agency (see Carlos Rogers in 2011), so look for the Niners to sign a stopgap like Asomugha and then invest heavily in their defensive line in next month’s draft.

+ The Bengals have been reluctant to hand out big money deals in the past but they would be wise to lock up franchise player Michael Johnson now. Based on the deals that Elvis Dumervil (five years, $35 million) and Cliff Avril (two years, $13 million) just signed, Cincinnati is overpaying Johnson this year at his $11.2 franchise number. That’s not to suggest that the 26-year-old pass rusher isn’t worth the investment because he is. But if the Bengals view him as a core piece of their defense, then it behooves them to work off of the contracts that Dumervil and Avril just signed. Otherwise, they risk having Johnson’s price tag go up when Jared Allen, Justin Smith, Justin Tuck, Michael Bennett, Matt Shaughnessy and Brian Robison hit the market, too. This the shrewd decision that has often eluded Mike Brown and his front office in years past.

+ As much as it pains Chicago fans to admit, it’s time for the Bears and Brian Urlacher to move on. If anyone wants to question what Urlacher meant to the Bears’ defense over the past decade, all you have to do is go back to 2009 when he missed 15 games due to a dislocated wrist. Nick Roach was forced into the starting lineup and the entire unit suffered because opponents had success attacking the middle of the field. But under new head coach Marc Trestman and second-year GM Phil Emery, the Bears are undergoing a facelift and part of that process is saying goodbye to aging vets. Urlacher’s play last year dipped dramatically and Trestman may not want to stick with the Tampa 2 scheme that Lovie Smith installed when he took over in 2004. Simply put, why invest money in a player that is no longer the focal point of the franchise? (Sentiment isn’t a good reason.) For better or for worse, Emery is building a team around Jay Cutler, which is one of the reasons why he hired Testman and invested over $7 million a year in blindside protector Jermon Bushrod. It’s understandable that Urlacher still believes he can contribute and it’s disappointing that he feels as though Chicago disrespected him with a $2 million-per-year offer. But Emery has to do what’s best for the Chicago Bears – not for Brian Urlacher. This is a painful, yet logical time for both parties to part ways.

Ten observations from the first week of NFL free agency

1. The Percy Harvin trade was outstanding for the Seahawks. They landed a proven playmaker for a first-round pick that may-or-may not wind up being a valuable piece, a seventh-rounder that probably would have been a long-shot to make an already stacked roster, and a third-round selection in 2014 that may-or-may not turn into a solid role player. It’s clear that Harvin wore out his welcome in Minnesota and the Vikings did what they had to do in order to rid themselves of the headache. But this is a dynamic, versatile player that adds a much-needed element to Seattle’s offense. He did miss seven games last season due to an ankle injury, but he missed only three games in the three years prior and his migraine issues have seemingly been resolved. (After being diagnosed with sleep apnea in 2010, he hasn’t suffered a migraine in two year.) With Harvin joining Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Sidney Rice, Zach Miller and Golden Tate, I’d match the Seahawks up against any other offense in the NFC right now.

2. Speaking of the Seahawks, the signing of Michael Bennett was a shrewd move by Pete Carroll and John Schneider. Bennett wasn’t impressed with the offer he received from the Buccaneers so instead of being patient while testing the market, he accepted what essentially was a one-year “prove it” deal at $5 million. He had nine sacks with Tampa Bay last season and is versatile enough to play end or tackle in a 4-3 alignment. He more than makes up for the loss of Jason Jones (Lions) and after signing Cliff Avril to a reasonable two-year, $15 million contract, Seattle is prepared from a pass-rushing standpoint to get by while Chris Clemons (ACL surgery) is on the mend. Once Clemons returns, he’ll join a defensive line that features Bennett, Avril and former first-rounder Bruce Irvin, who finished with eight sacks last season as a rookie.

3. After some initial confusion, the Patriots signed Danny Amendola before Wes Welker agreed to terms with the Broncos. He also received less money per year than Welker, which further proves that Bill Belichick and his staff coveted Amendola from the start of free agency (as opposed to countering Denver’s decision to sign Welker). New England was wise to tie up $2.5 million of Amendola’s contract in per-game roster bonuses, meaning the oft-injured receiver will need to stay healthy if he wants to fully cash in on his new deal. Considering he’s caught over 100 passes in five of the last six seasons, it’s almost ridiculous to think that the Pats have replaced Welker. But by signing Amendola, they acquired a player with a similar skill set that is also four years younger. As far as production goes, Welker has been in a league of his own since 2007 but Amendola arguably owns a better pair of hands and has more than enough short-area quickness to play the slot in Josh McDaniels’ offense. Amendola just needs to stay healthy or his value will be greatly diminished over the course of his contract in New England.

4. Considering Brian Hartline led the Dolphins in receiving last season, it’s hard to argue why Jeff Ireland spent a large portion of his cap space on Mike Wallace. He gives Miami’s offense something it desperately needed: A playmaker with the ability to take the top off a defense. But did Ireland really improve his defense or did he make slight upgrades while also spending more money? Both Philip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe are solid players but Ireland spent a combined $56 million to acquire them on the open market. In one fell swoop, he also released Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett, who were productive last season for Miami’s defense. It’s not as if linebacker was a need coming into the offseason – Ireland just shifted players around and by doing so, spent more money in the process. Given the mess that are the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins will likely be the only threat to the Patriots in the AFC East next season. Again, it’s not as if Miami hasn’t made upgrades to its roster. But these are hardly calculated decisions by Ireland, whose future in Miami could rest on the moves he made last week.

5. It’s laughable that some are questioning the Falcons’ decision to sign Steven Jackson when they could have just kept Michael Turner. These same folks point to both players’ production over the last four years and the fact that Turner has racked up 60 touchdowns since 2008 compared to Jackson’s 26 TDs over that same span. But Turner’s burst and acceleration have evaporated, and he no longer can create on his own. Too often he would run into the backs of his offensive linemen last year and managed a paltry 3.6 yards per carry. Jackson has lost a step over the years but he still displays some quickness and the ability to beat defenses on the edge. Monetarily-speaking, the two players aren’t comparable either. Turner was set to make $6.9 million in his final year with the Falcons, while Jackson signed for a reasonable $12 million over three years. (Of the amount, only $4 million is guaranteed.) For those that worry about touchdown totals, keep in mind that Turner received 51 red-zone opportunities last season with Atlanta, compared to Jackson’s 27 with St. Louis. Considering Dirk Koetter used Turner as his goal-line battering ram last season, Jackson will have more than enough opportunities to reach pay dirt in 2013. More importantly, he’ll also give Matt Ryan and the dangerous Atlanta offense increased production while on its way to the end zone.

6. The Bears took somewhat of a gamble by signing former Saint Jermon Bushrod to a five-year contract on the opening day of free agency. Bushrod was a top-10 tackle in 2011 but his play dipped last season. According to Pro Football Focus, Bushrod allowed a whopping 46 quarterback hurries, eight QB hits, and four sacks. The hurries and QB hits were more than Chicago’s 2012 left tackle J’Marcus Webb (5 QB hits, 29 QB hurries), although the latter allowed three more sacks. If Bushrod can return to his 2011 form, the Bears will have upgraded the blindside protection of Jay Cutler. But if 2012 wasn’t an anomaly for Bushrod, then Chicago will continue to have a real problem on its hands upfront. They’re still deciding what position 2011 first-round bust Gabe Carimi will play (Chris Williams 2.0, anyone?), and if Webb performs as poorly on the right side next year as he did on the left, Cutler’s days of being under constant duress will live on. Phil Emery still has a lot of work ahead of him when it comes to re-building the mess that Jerry Angelo left him along the offensive line.

7. The $38.5 million over five years that the Rams handed tight end Jared Cook was a lot to give a player that has never caught 50 passes in a single season. (His highest reception total came in 2011 when he caught 49 passes for 759 yards.) But Jeff Fisher drafted the former South Carolina product and as long as St. Louis makes him one of the focal points of its offense, chances are he’ll be worth the price tag. But it’s hard to blame fans for being frustrated after the Seahawks landed Harvin and the 49ers gave up a late-round pick for Anquan Boldin. They look at the current depth chart at receiver and wonder, ‘Is that it?’ The key is Brian Quick. If he develops into the player the Rams envision he’ll be when they selected him at No. 33 overall last April, then fans will take comfort in the fact that the team didn’t part with multiple picks and $25 million in guaranteed money for Harvin. Chris Givens is already entrenched as a playmaker on one side and with Cook testing defenses down the seam, the Rams really only need that outside-the-numbers weapon to make their passing game hum. In a perfect world that player will be Quick, and then St. Louis could supplement its depth at receiver by drafting another wideout or acquiring a veteran this spring. (Don’t rule out Nate Washington, who the Titans might release in the coming weeks.) If the Rams missed on Quick, then the present fears will be amplified down the road.

8. Some of the contracts handed out to offensive linemen this week were staggering. I mentioned Bushrod’s five-year, $36 million deal, but there were more head-scratching decisions made by other NFL front offices. Andy Levitre is a solid player and the Titans needed to upgrade their offensive line this offseason. But $46.8 million is an astounding figure for a guard. Sam Baker has only had one productive year since the Falcons reached on him in the first round of the 2008 draft, yet they decided to hand him $41.5 million over six years. With some of the money that has been thrown around in free agency thus far, you can’t blame Jake Long for waiting until he receives the offer he wants.

9. Jets owner Woody Johnson didn’t exactly squash the notion that cornerback Darrelle Revis would be traded at some point this offseason. “No team is just one player away, maybe with the exception of the quarterback,” Johnson told reporters. “You can’t be distracted by one player. You have to look at everything.” Johnson went on to say that the team would like to have Revis back, but “it depends.” In typical Jets fashion, it’s unlikely that they get the best of this current situation. Revis is coming off an ACL injury and thus, his value has never been lower. The Jets are also in cap hell because of former GM Mike Tannebaum, so other teams are well aware that New York doesn’t have the cap space to pay Revis what he wants long-term. With Mark Sanchez under center and Rex Ryan seemingly a dead man walking, there appears to be zero hope on the horizon for “Gang Green.”

10. In any other offseason, a team that needed to fill not one, but two holes at safety would be in full panic mode right now. But the Rams remain in a great spot despite having multiple holes to fill in their secondary. That’s because their options remain plentiful, both in free agency and the draft. Bernard Pollard, Michael Huff, Ed Reed, Kerry Rhodes, Gerald Sensabaugh, Charles Woodson and Tom Zbikowski all remain unsigned, as does Quintin Mikell. A combination of Pollard and either Kenny Vaccaro or Matt Elam would offer an instant upgrade over what St. Louis had at safety last year, provided that Vaccaro or Elam panned out, of course. And the Rams could do much worse than to bring back Mikell for cheap and land a safety in the draft to play centerfield. While it’s a bit unsettling to have clear needs on either side of the ball not addressed quickly in free agency, Jeff Fisher and Les Snead would really have to drop the ball not to land two quality safeties over the next two months.

Around the NFL: 10 Nuggets Heading into Free Agency

1. How about Roger Goodell pouring a big cup of antifreeze on everyone’s fun this past weekend? Due to a rule change that allowed teams to gauge the interest of prospective free agents, football fans hovered around Adam Schefter’s Twitter page thinking that free agency was essentially going to start at Midnight on Saturday morning. But Goodell’s memo to teams earlier that day killed everyone’s buzz. Here’s part of the memo, tweeted by Schefter that night: “Clubs are advised that prior to the beginning of the new League Year it is impermissible for a club to enter into an agreement of any kind, express or implied, oral or written, or promises, undertakings, representations, commitments, inducements, assurances of intent or understandings of any kind concerning the terms or conditions of employment offered to, or to be offered to, any prospective Unrestricted Free Agent for inclusion in a Player Contract after the start of the new League Year.” Deathly afraid of tampering, can you imagine how those conversations went on Friday night between teams and free agents? “Hi Mike Wallace, this is Miami Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland. I just wanted to call and see if you liked the color teal in combination with white and a splash of orange. Yeah, no, I’m not asking you if you want to be a member of the Dolphins. That would be tampering. I’m specifically asking you about color scheme. You do like that color scheme? How about Joe Philbin? Do you like Joe Philbin’s face? Maybe you’d like to see more of Philbin, say, on a daily basis in the fall? Grrrrrrrrreat. Do you also hate purple and the entire state of Minnesota like most reasonable human beings do? Excellent. I’ll see you and your agent at 4:00PM ET on Tuesday then…”

2. People are getting caught up in whether or not the Chiefs should draft Luke Joeckel with the first overall pick when they just placed their franchise tag on Branden Albert. While it would be unprecedented for a team to draft a right tackle with the first overall pick, it doesn’t mean that Kansas City will shy away from arguably the safest prospect in this year’s class. Albert was one of the best pass-blocking offensive tackles in the league last year, but he also missed three games due to a back injury and who knows if the Chiefs will be able to lock him up long term. They could draft Joeckel, play him at right tackle and then re-asses the situation a year from now. If Albert’s back once again becomes an issue or the two sides can’t agree on a long-term deal, then the Chiefs have their left tackle of the future in Joeckel. If they lock Albert up long-term, then at worst they have two book-end tackles for the next six-plus years. Considering defensive coordinators constantly move pass rushers around in effort to create mismatches, that’s not exactly a worst-case scenario. And with no true No. 1 overall talent in this year’s draft, there’s no reason to bypass Joeckel with the top pick just because he could wind up playing right tackle.

3. The best thing for both the Jets and Darrelle Revis is if the cornerback drops off the map and shows up to OTAs healthy and in shape. Owner Woody Johnson isn’t being cheap – he just can’t pay Revis what he wants long-term because his former GM put the team in cap hell by handing out ridiculous contracts to players like Mark Sanchez. And since the Jets can’t afford him, Revis could help himself by not destroying his own trade value. This includes avoiding telling the media that it would be “awesome” to play for the 49ers and reiterating how you want to be the highest paid defensive player in the league. Potential trade partners are already leery about Revis’ knee, parting with premium draft picks, and clearing the necessary cap space to sign him long term. He doesn’t need to provide teams with more reasons to tell the Jets ‘thanks but no thanks.’

4. Percy Harvin’s situation in Minnesota seems combustible, but GM Rick Spielman has wisely suggested that the disgruntled wide receiver isn’t going anywhere. Some fans have opined that Spielman should trade Harvin and then sign a free agent receiver like Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings. But the Vikings are on the rise and thus, parting ways with a playmaker makes little sense. He’s already under contract and the team could potentially line up next year with Harvin, Jennings, Jarius Wright, Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph, as opposed to some combination of Peterson, Rudolph, Jennings, Wright and an unproven rookie. And maybe a veteran like Jennings could have a profound impact on Harvin, who has seemingly alienating himself from coaches and teammates. While the defense and offensive line proved to be underrated, the Vikings made the playoffs last year almost solely riding Peterson’s coattails. Unless the situation is so bad that the team needs to wash its hands completely of Harvin as soon as possible, addition is key – not subtraction.

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