My post from a few days ago was relatively well-received at reddit, and one of the readers there said that he’d like to see the same graph for some of the all-time great point guards.
So with a little help from Basketball-Reference.com, I compiled a list of (all?) the Hall of Fame point guards: Oscar Robertson, Lenny Wilkens, Bob Cousy, Jerry West, John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Dennis Johnson, Tiny Archibald, Calvin Murphy, Pete Maravich and Walt Frazier. Unfortunately, the NBA didn’t start keeping track of turnovers until the 1977-78 season, so there’s no assist-to-turnover data for the first four (Robertson, Wilkens, Cousy, West) and the data for Archibald, Murphy, Maravich and Frazier is incomplete, so I could only use their post-1977 numbers.
I also compiled a list of the top non-HOF point guards who are both retired and still active: Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson, Steve Nash, Gary Payton, Rod Strickland, Maurice Cheeks, Terry Porter, Tim Hardaway, Andre Miller, Muggsy Bogues, Kevin Johnson, Derek Harper, Stephon Marbury (yes, Stephon Marbury), John Lucas, Norm Nixon, Mookie Blaylock, Sam Cassell, Avery Johnson, Baron Davis, Nick Van Exel, Allen Iverson, Chauncey Billups and Mike Bibby. All of these players have at least 5,400 career assists, which seemed to be the cutoff for players I was interested in using for this study.
Lastly, I added seven of the top current point guards who have yet to break the 5,400-assist barrier: Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams and of course, Chris Paul.
I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball, relative to what he’s asked to do as a playmaker for his team. The graph takes a gentle downward slope because assists are part of both calculations. (Note: While I do like FGA/A as the criteria for shoot-first/pass-first, I am not completely sold on A/TO as the criteria for turnover-prone. Perhaps (A+FGA)/TO would show shoot-first guards in a better light? Maybe I’ll try that next year.)
The Chicago Bulls’ Derrick Rose shoots a free throw while playing the San Antonio Spurs during the fourth quarter of their NBA game in Chicago February 17, 2011. REUTERS/John Gress (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)
We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?
I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.
I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:
So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.
Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.
Denver Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony (L) moves against the New York Knicks guard/forward Landry Fields during the first quarter at the Pepsi Center in Denver on November 16, 2010. UPI/Gary C. Caskey
As of late Sunday night, sources said, New Jersey was poised to receive [Carmelo] Anthony, [Chauncey] Billups and [Rip] Hamilton, with Denver landing two future first-round picks and six players. The Nuggets’ haul would feature Nets rookie Derrick Favors, former All-Star guard Devin Harris and Nets sharpshooter Anthony Morrow. In addition, the Nuggets would bring in the New Jersey threesome of Quinton Ross, Ben Uzoh and Stephen Graham included for salary-cap purposes.
Detroit, meanwhile, was to receive Nets big man Johan Petro and the expiring contract of Nets forward Troy Murphy, with the Pistons motivated to join in by the $17-plus million in long-term savings they’d earn by shedding Hamilton’s contract.
Denver threw a wrench into the works by choosing to play Anthony and Billups in Sunday night’s game against New Orleans. Generally, if a player is about to be traded, the team sits him down until the deal is consummated to avoid a deal-killing injury. The Nuggets’ move indicates that the trade is not as close to the finish line as some would like to believe.
If this deal does go through, it looks fairly equitable from all sides. The Nets get their man, and they also upgrade (in the short term) at point guard. Billups is getting on in years so one wonders if the inclusion of Harris was at the Nuggets’ request. Denver would get a young prospect at power forward (Favors) and a proven guard (Harris) whom they can plug in at the point or move to another team for another piece to the rebuilding puzzle. I suspect that Ty Lawson is the future at point guard in Denver, and Harris could potentially bring in more talent later. After what happened to the Raptors and Cavs this summer, getting Favors and Harris for Anthony and Billups isn’t a bad haul. I’m sure there will be a first round draft pick or two included as well.
If anyone is wondering why Carmelo has apparently become agreeable to signing an extension with the Nets, it’s probably due to the Knicks’ inability to offer the Nuggets something equitable. If Melo finishes the season as a Nugget, the uncertainty of the next collective bargaining agreement could mean that Anthony would leave a lot of money on the table by passing on the Nuggets’ extension offer. In other words, he’d like to lock up his contract now, and since the Nets and Nuggets have worked out a deal in principle, Carmelo can start counting his money. Certainly the prospect of continuing his career with Billups in New Jersey/Brooklyn also has to help.
If this deal does go through as described, the Nets could have a starting lineup of Billups, Hamilton, Anthony, Kris Humphries and Brook Lopez. That might be enough to turn the Nets into a playoff team despite the 10-27 start. After all, they’re only five games out of the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.
Alex Kennedy of HOOPSWORLD reportedthis yesterday…
Sources close to the situation don’t expect Carmelo Anthony to sign an extension with the Denver Nuggets this summer.
Anthony is leaning towards testing free agency next offseason, said sources on the same day that the Nuggets let go of Warkentien, Chapman.
Sources say that Carmelo isn’t too worried about next season’s potential lockout and he wants to explore his options next summer.
The Nuggets have been pretty good the last few years, but pretty good doesn’t seem to cut it anymore. It’s possible that Anthony saw what LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh did this summer and wants to form a ‘Super Friends’ of his own, potentially hooking up with Amare Stoudemire and Chris Paul in New York. Paul said as much in his toast at Anthony’s wedding a few weeks ago.
With an aging Chauncey Billups as Melo’s sidekick, the Nuggets don’t appear to be on the verge of challenging for a title. If they were serious about contending, they wouldn’t have given Marcus Camby away two summers ago. They did, however, sign 30-year-old Al Harrington to a mid-level deal this summer, which was a curious addition seeing as he’s something of a poor man’s Melo.
While the Nuggets have a couple of expiring salaries — Kenyon Martin ($16.5 M), J.R. Smith ($6.8 M) — they won’t have enough cap space next summer to re-sign Anthony and add another big-name free agent. Their best bet is to try to acquire a good player by dangling Martin’s expiring contract. Perhaps the Sixers would want to unload Andre Iguodala, whose defense and slashing ability would fit well with Melo and Billups.
The bottom line is that if Anthony ends up ‘testing’ free agency, he’s probably leaving. In all likelihood, if he doesn’t sign the extension, the Nuggets have until the February trade deadline to reshape the roster enough to convince him to stay.
According to Synergy Sports, the Nuggets have choreographed a pick-and-roll — then hit the roll man — 17 times in this series. The results:
* Nine made baskets
* Six trips to the free throw line
* Two missed shot attempts
That’s an 88.2 percent success rate.
Those 17 possessions in sequence is an impressive reel of video. Ball-handlers/passers include Billups, Anthony, Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith. All the Nuggets bigs are represented among the roll men. Whatever the scenario, the Nuggets score on 15 of the 17 opportunities, which leaves you with one question:
Why are the Nuggets running this action only four times per game?
When asked why his team isn’t running what seems to be working, interim head coach Adrian Dantley had this to say:
After the season, I like to tackle questions like these. To me, a good three-point shooter has to shoot a high percentage and make a good number of threes per game, so I put a few requirements on the eligibility of players:
1. They must have played in a minimum of 60 games during the season.
2. They must make a minimum of 38% of their 3PT attempts.
3. They must make a minimum of 1.0 threes per game.
Here are the results:
(As always, click on the graph for a larger version.)
Most impressive shooter? It has to be the rookie Stephen Curry, who quickly adjusted to the longer distance in the NBA and finished with the fourth-highest percentage of eligible players. He was also in the top 10 in makes per game.
Biggest surprise? Probably Jason Kidd. A career 35% shooter from deep, Kidd has been well over 40% since joining the Mavs. He’s hitting more of his threes because he’s able to play off of Dirk Nowitzki and can spot up instead of trying to hit threes off the dribble.
Best big man shooter? Channing Frye, who hit 2.12 threes a game at a 44% clip.
So who is the best shooter in the NBA? Well, it depends on your criteria. Accuracy and number of makes are important, but it’s even more impressive when the player in question is the first or second option on his team (like Aaron Brooks, Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, John Salmons, Steve Nash — or Jason Richardson — and Stephen Curry), and can still make a lot of threes at a high percentage when the defense is game-planning against him.
On the heels of their 95-89 loss to the Lakers on Sunday — the first time the Lakers beat Denver in three tries — J.A. Adande is left wondering if the Nuggets have what it takes to win a NBA championship.
As much as they insist they’re not as running-game dependent as they used to be, here’s some evidence to the contrary: Denver now is 0-3 when scoring fewer than 90 points and 5-13 when scoring fewer than 100 points.
Coach George Karl expounded on the Nuggets’ half-court issues, saying, “A lot of our losses, it’s because we don’t offensively trust the pass and have enough patience to fight through the defensive intensity. When we find the open man, when we move the ball and have a high assist night, it’s the key to us winning games.”
When it goes bad, they’ll pull up for the quick jumper or they’ll forget to put the ball in the hands of Anthony, the third-best scorer in the league.
When asked if he thought the Nuggets had a good chance of knocking off the Lakers or the Cavs, Bill Simmons said this in a recent chat:
Absolutely. They’re one big body short, but other than that, they have everything I’m looking for in a legit contender. My 2 questions are these… 1) When is Chauncey going to realize that he hasn’t been Mr. Big Shot in about 4 years? When he waved Melo off vs. Cleveland last week to brick a game-winner, I was in shock. Melo has to get the ball in all big situations. So until they solve that alpha dog issue, I can’t buy in. 2) George Karl teams just have a habit of beating themselves in dumb ways in big playoff series. I worry about them playing a 7 game series against LAL in which they’d win 3 and give away 2 more… a little like the 2002 Kings
I like what Billups has brought to Denver, but Simmons is right — he has to defer to Carmelo in crunch time. (Unless, of course, they occasionally want to use ‘Melo as a decoy, but that should be the exception, not the rule.) However, there is some evidence that Billups is simply better in the clutch. According to 82games.com, Billups’ FG% in the “clutch” (defined as 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points) is 48% while Anthony’s is just 34%.
But that just seems to be an anomaly. Last season, Anthony was one of the top crunch-time players in the league (57% FG%), so the Nuggets need to keep feeding him the ball. Remember, this is the guy who led Syracuse to a national title as a freshman, hitting a number of huge shots along the way.
Chauncey Billups hit 9-13 from long range en route to a 39-4-8 night against the Lakers. The win is mightily impressive, especially considering the Nuggets were without Carmelo Anthony.
Oh, and Ron Artest almost punched Joey Graham. Almost. Take a look…
Typically, an NBA team can expect to score one point per possession (or thereabouts) over a course of a game. So when one team outrebounds another on the offensive glass by a margin of 20-9, it’s really 11 extra possessions and 11 extra opportunities to score. That’s why the Nuggets were able to bounce back tonight from a tough loss in Game 3; they dominated the glass by a margin of 58-40, and went on to win 120-101.
The win is even more impressive considering the struggles of Carmelo Anthony, who went 3 of 16 from the field. Chauncey Billups picked up the slack, and had key back-to-back buckets when the Nuggets were nursing a nine-point lead early in the fourth quarter. He drove to the hole and got the “and one,” and then on the Nuggets’ next possession, he brought the ball up and drained a three. Billups was one of seven Nuggets to score in double figures; J.R. Smith deserves mention for his 24 points and four assists off the bench.
Kobe Bryant posted 34 points on 10 of 26 shooting (39%). Pau Gasol added 21 points and 10 boards, and Andrew Bynum had 14 points and five boards, but Phil Jackson isn’t getting much production from the rest of the roster. Two vets that the Lakers are counting on — Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher — combined to shoot 3 of 15 for 10 points.
The series moves back to L.A. for Game 5 and if the Nuggets can avoid the mental errors in crunch time, they have a good shot to win this series. The Lakers are inconsistent and out of synch, and they really need that supporting cast to raise its game.
The Lakers didn’t play all that well, but they performed well enough to get a win (103-97) on the road in the playoffs, and that is no small feat. Denver had control for much of the game, and with Carmelo Anthony on the bench, the Nuggets built a seven-point lead at the end of the third quarter. But a sorry five-minute stretch to start the fourth quarter was Denver’s undoing. Check out these nine possessions:
11:41 J.R. Smith misses 25-foot three point jumper
10:49 Linas Kleiza misses 5-foot jumper
10:27 Chauncey Billups misses 26-foot three point jumper
10:11 Chauncey Billups makes technical free throw
9:59 Chris Andersen misses layup
9:44 J.R. Smith misses layup
8:53 Nene Hilario misses 9-foot two point shot
8:22 Trevor Ariza blocks Carmelo Anthony’s 15-foot jumper
8:18 Kenyon Martin misses layup
7:39 Pau Gasol blocks Chris Andersen’s layup
That’s one point in the first four and a half minutes of the fourth quarter. By the time they scored again, they were trailing by one. Carmelo Anthony went cold and the Nuggets simply struggled to score. Chauncey Billups launched some ill-advised shots (and hit a few of them), but it was J.R. Smith who seemed to be the go-to man down the stretch.
For the Lakers, Trevor Ariza and Pau Gasol played well in the closing minutes, but down two with about a minute to play, it was Kobe Bryant who hit a huge three pointer to put his team ahead. Denver turned the ball over (again) on the inbounds pass, and again, it was Ariza who made the big defensive play. At that point, the Lakers just had to knock down their free throws, and they did. With the win, the Lakers wrested back control of the series. Game 4 is of the “must-win” variety for the Nuggets.
