Typically, an NBA team can expect to score one point per possession (or thereabouts) over a course of a game. So when one team outrebounds another on the offensive glass by a margin of 20-9, it’s really 11 extra possessions and 11 extra opportunities to score. That’s why the Nuggets were able to bounce back tonight from a tough loss in Game 3; they dominated the glass by a margin of 58-40, and went on to win 120-101.

The win is even more impressive considering the struggles of Carmelo Anthony, who went 3 of 16 from the field. Chauncey Billups picked up the slack, and had key back-to-back buckets when the Nuggets were nursing a nine-point lead early in the fourth quarter. He drove to the hole and got the “and one,” and then on the Nuggets’ next possession, he brought the ball up and drained a three. Billups was one of seven Nuggets to score in double figures; J.R. Smith deserves mention for his 24 points and four assists off the bench.

Kobe Bryant posted 34 points on 10 of 26 shooting (39%). Pau Gasol added 21 points and 10 boards, and Andrew Bynum had 14 points and five boards, but Phil Jackson isn’t getting much production from the rest of the roster. Two vets that the Lakers are counting on — Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher — combined to shoot 3 of 15 for 10 points.

The series moves back to L.A. for Game 5 and if the Nuggets can avoid the mental errors in crunch time, they have a good shot to win this series. The Lakers are inconsistent and out of synch, and they really need that supporting cast to raise its game.

The Lakers didn’t play all that well, but they performed well enough to get a win (103-97) on the road in the playoffs, and that is no small feat. Denver had control for much of the game, and with Carmelo Anthony on the bench, the Nuggets built a seven-point lead at the end of the third quarter. But a sorry five-minute stretch to start the fourth quarter was Denver’s undoing. Check out these nine possessions:

11:41 J.R. Smith misses 25-foot three point jumper
10:49 Linas Kleiza misses 5-foot jumper
10:27 Chauncey Billups misses 26-foot three point jumper
10:11 Chauncey Billups makes technical free throw
9:59 Chris Andersen misses layup
9:44 J.R. Smith misses layup
8:53 Nene Hilario misses 9-foot two point shot
8:22 Trevor Ariza blocks Carmelo Anthony’s 15-foot jumper
8:18 Kenyon Martin misses layup
7:39 Pau Gasol blocks Chris Andersen’s layup

That’s one point in the first four and a half minutes of the fourth quarter. By the time they scored again, they were trailing by one. Carmelo Anthony went cold and the Nuggets simply struggled to score. Chauncey Billups launched some ill-advised shots (and hit a few of them), but it was J.R. Smith who seemed to be the go-to man down the stretch.

For the Lakers, Trevor Ariza and Pau Gasol played well in the closing minutes, but down two with about a minute to play, it was Kobe Bryant who hit a huge three pointer to put his team ahead. Denver turned the ball over (again) on the inbounds pass, and again, it was Ariza who made the big defensive play. At that point, the Lakers just had to knock down their free throws, and they did. With the win, the Lakers wrested back control of the series. Game 4 is of the “must-win” variety for the Nuggets.

With an efficient 39 points from Carmelo Anthony, it looked like the Nuggets might pull the upset in Game 1, but a key steal by Trevor Ariza and some clutch play from Kobe Bryant sealed the Laker win, 105-103.

The Lakers struggled early on, and with Anthony scoring 16 points in the first quarter, the Nuggets led by eight after the first period. As the game wore on, it became clear that the Nuggets are simply tougher than the Lakers. Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Kenyon Martin, Nene, Chris Andersen, Anthony Carter, and even Dahntay Jones — they’re all tough players, both mentally and physically. How many Lakers fit that description? Kobe? Yep. Derek Fisher? Yep. Anyone else? Not really.

But Kobe is a closer. He had 18 points in the fourth quarter, 40 on the game. He literally carried the Lakers offensively. And he did a great job on Billups for most of the game before having to switch to Anthony to try to slow him down. I was really impressed with how Kobe and Melo battled throughout the game. Anthony really stepped up on the glass and defensively, even though Bryant went off in the final quarter.

The Nuggets made a few mental errors down the stretch. Carter’s bad pass led to the Ariza steal, and K-Mart had a bad, bad foul on Kobe Bryant when the game was tied with 0:30 to play. The questions about the Nuggets remain — do they know how to win in the clutch?

This looks like it’s going to be a great series.

We’re down to four teams…Cavs/Magic…Lakers/Nuggets…

What do they have in common? Star power, efficient offense, pretty solid defense, good coaching…check, check, check and check.

But how about an aggressive front office?

Each of these four teams made a major trade in the last two years.

July 11, 2007: The Magic sign Rashard Lewis
This was a sign-and-trade, not a straight free agent signing, but the Magic only had to give up a conditional second round pick. The upside for the then-Seattle Supersonics was a trade exception worth $9 million. The contract (six years, $110 million) seemed outlandish at the time, and Lewis is still overpaid, but the Magic did what they had to do to get him. He’s a great fit for what Orlando is trying to do. They are built like the Rockets were in the Hakeem Olajuwon era — find a big man who commands a double-team, and surround him with great shooters. Lewis is the Magic’s version of Robert Horry in that he’s a lanky, versatile, sharpshooting big man. Strength-wise, he’s not built like a typical power forward, but since the NBA has gotten smaller and quicker over the past few years, he can get by against most teams. Offensively, he creates all sorts of problems for opposing power forwards as he can drill the long ball (career 39% from 3PT) or take it to the rack. He’s also pretty good in the post when teams try to defend him with a smaller player.

Sure, the Magic overpaid on that contract, but I think it’s safe to say that if they hadn’t, they wouldn’t be in the Eastern Conference Finals right now. Lewis is a big, big part of Orlando’s recent success. GM Otis Smith deserves a lot of credit for having the cojones to pull the trigger on this deal.

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Well, the Lakers finally made it out of the Western Conference semi-finals. Certainly took them long enough. Arash Markazi from Inside the NBA at Sports Illustrated had an interesting quote after the game:

When Kobe Bryant was asked what he learned about the Lakers after a grueling seven-game Western Conference semifinal series against the Rockets that culminated with an 89-70 win Sunday, he didn’t hesitate before answering.

“That we’re bipolar,” Bryant said with a straight face.

Ya think? While I still whole-heartedly feel the Lakers are the best team in the West, it makes the upcoming series against the Nuggets seem like less of a sure-fire thing. The Lakers, and Kobe Bryant especially, really need to get their act together, take the proper meds or whatever, and regain some consistency.

Their general level of play is high enough that most teams can’t touch them even on an off night, but the Denver Nuggets have a lot of fire in their eyes. Their games haven’t been as well publicized as any of the other potential conference finalists. But as any Detroit fan can tell you, with Chauncey Billups leading them anything could happen when he meets the Lakers.

If Los Angeles can come into their next game on Tuesday with the same level of desire they showed against Houston today, they’ll get past the Nuggets handily. But with even the star-player admitting the team is mentally out of control, it’s anybody’s guess who will show up. If only this kind of wild variety made for more interesting basketball! The Houston/LA series was defined by a succession of surprise blowouts, something pretty boring for a neutral and bad for TV. I’m hoping the Nuggets can keep the Lakers on their toes.

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first� and another “shoot-first.� Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone� while another “takes care of the ball.� But really, what makes a player a “pass-first� point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone�?

Taking an analytical approach to these questions, I decided to bust out an Excel spreadsheet and try to come up with some answers. Below you’ll see a graph that attempts to classify the top point guards in the league. But first, a little background…

I chose to categorize each player based on two stats. First, to determine if he’s “shoot-first� or “pass-first,� I calculated the shot-to-assist ratio for each player. The bigger the number, the more of a “shoot-first� mentality the player has. Second, to determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,� I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. I thought about using turnovers per 48 minutes, but I like the idea of including assists so that playmakers are rewarded for the positive as well as the negative. Next, I calculated each player’s Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) to see if there is any correlation between these other statistics and the overall efficiency of the player in question.

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Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:

If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?

Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.

We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.

HONORABLE MENTION

Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.

Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.

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It’s safe to say that the Chauncey Billups-for-Allen Iverson trade hasn’t worked out very well for the 2008-09 Detroit Pistons. The team is 36-39 and is just two games ahead of the 9th place Charlotte Bobcats. The two teams play on Sunday in Detroit, and if the Bobcats can pull out a win, they will be very much in the thick of a playoff spot, meaning that the Pistons could miss the postseason for the first time in…well…forever. (Meanwhile, Billups’ Nuggets are in second place in the West and have won nine of their last 10 games. And Chauncey gets to look at “Bouncing Bridget” every time the Nuggets play a home game.)

Iverson has been fighting a sore back and shin, and the Pistons have elected to use him off the bench for the last three games. During that span, he’s averaging 18.7 minutes, 7.7 points (on 36% shooting) and 2.7 assists. And he’s none too happy about his playing time.

Reporter: You made a comment the other day about how this is a temporary situation. What did you mean by that?

Iverson: I won’t do this again, in my career. I’ll retire before I do this again. I would leave the game before I do this. I can’t be effective like I know I can playing this way. It’s just that I’m not used to it. Just not something I’ve had to do. Like I said, it’s hard for me mentally and physically.

Reporter: So, on a positive note, what can you say about guys coming off the bench?

Iverson: Like I said. I take my hat off to the guys that can do it. And some guys get used to it. They’ve done it before. Like I said, I’ve been playing basketball since I was eight-years-old, and I never had to do it. At 33-years-old, to have to adjust to something like that it’s kind of tough. That’s something I’m dealing with as far as my rhythm, my timing and like I said, the mental part of that.

With the trade, Joe Dumars gave the team a ton of flexibility to rebuild over the next couple of years, but he really sunk these 2008-09 Pistons. With Billups on the roster, they’d be a top 4 team in the East, and with the injuries to Boston’s Kevin Garnett and Orlando’s Jameer Nelson, they’d have a legitimate shot at being the second-best team in the conference. Is that enough?

I don’t know — one injury to LeBron and suddenly the Pistons would be first in line to go the Finals. That seems like a good thing, right?

Only time will tell what kind of free agents Dumars will be able to attract over the next couple of summers. Then we’ll know if this Billups-for-AI swap was worth it.

With the second pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons select…

Darko Milicic.

This is the blackest mark on GM Joe Dumars’ otherwise solid record guiding the Pistons, but six years later, the Milicic pick is having a domino effect on the franchise. While Dumars did successfully dupe the Magic into trading a first round pick for Milicic in 2006 (which resulted in the selection of Rodney Stuckey in the 2007 draft) the Milicic pick still haunts this franchise. Just take a look at the next few selections in that 2003 draft…

…and here they are…

East: Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Rashard Lewis and Paul Pierce

West: Shaquille O’Neal, Chauncey Billups, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, Brandon Roy and David West

When comparing the final rosters to my picks, there were three changes. I didn’t have Allen Iverson on my roster, much less a starter, but he was voted in by the fans. Rashard Lewis replaced Vince Carter, which goes to show that the coaches value team wins more than individual (albeit gaudy) stats. David West replaced Carmelo Anthony, and I think it’s a good call, especially with ‘Melo’s injury. The longer he was out, the better the chances that the coaches would leave him at home. It didn’t help his All-Star stock that Denver has played very well without him.

The only thing that’s really wrong with these rosters is the inclusion of Allen Iverson. There were a host of players in the East — Carter, Tayshaun Prince, Ray Allen, Mo Williams, Rajon Rondo, Caron Butler and Josh Smith — that were more deserving, but there’s no doubt that AI is a very popular player. Unsurprisingly, we can’t really argue with the coaches’ picks. They know what they’re doing.

It’s especially good to see Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson and Tony Parker get recognized for their fine play this season.