Per ESPN…

As of late Sunday night, sources said, New Jersey was poised to receive [Carmelo] Anthony, [Chauncey] Billups and [Rip] Hamilton, with Denver landing two future first-round picks and six players. The Nuggets’ haul would feature Nets rookie Derrick Favors, former All-Star guard Devin Harris and Nets sharpshooter Anthony Morrow. In addition, the Nuggets would bring in the New Jersey threesome of Quinton Ross, Ben Uzoh and Stephen Graham included for salary-cap purposes.

Detroit, meanwhile, was to receive Nets big man Johan Petro and the expiring contract of Nets forward Troy Murphy, with the Pistons motivated to join in by the $17-plus million in long-term savings they’d earn by shedding Hamilton’s contract.

Denver threw a wrench into the works by choosing to play Anthony and Billups in Sunday night’s game against New Orleans. Generally, if a player is about to be traded, the team sits him down until the deal is consummated to avoid a deal-killing injury. The Nuggets’ move indicates that the trade is not as close to the finish line as some would like to believe.

If this deal does go through, it looks fairly equitable from all sides. The Nets get their man, and they also upgrade (in the short term) at point guard. Billups is getting on in years so one wonders if the inclusion of Harris was at the Nuggets’ request. Denver would get a young prospect at power forward (Favors) and a proven guard (Harris) whom they can plug in at the point or move to another team for another piece to the rebuilding puzzle. I suspect that Ty Lawson is the future at point guard in Denver, and Harris could potentially bring in more talent later. After what happened to the Raptors and Cavs this summer, getting Favors and Harris for Anthony and Billups isn’t a bad haul. I’m sure there will be a first round draft pick or two included as well.

If anyone is wondering why Carmelo has apparently become agreeable to signing an extension with the Nets, it’s probably due to the Knicks’ inability to offer the Nuggets something equitable. If Melo finishes the season as a Nugget, the uncertainty of the next collective bargaining agreement could mean that Anthony would leave a lot of money on the table by passing on the Nuggets’ extension offer. In other words, he’d like to lock up his contract now, and since the Nets and Nuggets have worked out a deal in principle, Carmelo can start counting his money. Certainly the prospect of continuing his career with Billups in New Jersey/Brooklyn also has to help.

If this deal does go through as described, the Nets could have a starting lineup of Billups, Hamilton, Anthony, Kris Humphries and Brook Lopez. That might be enough to turn the Nets into a playoff team despite the 10-27 start. After all, they’re only five games out of the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.

All due respect to Denver’s Mark Warkentien, who won the 2009 NBA Executive of the Year Award, but Orlando GM Otis Smith deserves the honor. This is the problem with how the league hands out these awards at the end of the regular season — there’s no way to take the playoffs into account. Granted, it’s a regular season award, but in that case, wouldn’t Danny Ferry deserve it for pulling the trigger on the Mo Williams trade, which led to an All-Star nod for the guard and a 66-win season? Mitch Kupchak also deserves mention for his theft of Pau Gasol (now a year and a half old) along with mining Trevor Ariza and Shannon Brown from other team’s benches.

Of course, Warkentien pulled arguably the best in-season move by sending Allen Iverson to Detroit for Chauncey Billups, which gave the Nuggets the toughness and defensive intensity to go from a Western Conference also-ran to a legitimate contender. I didn’t like his decision to give away Marcus Camby last summer in a salary dump, but in his defense, his signing of Chris Andersen offset that loss. Still, it would have been nice to have Camby on the roster against the Lakers, but there probably wouldn’t have been enough minutes for three centers. Warkentien rolled the dice that Nene was ready to explode and that Andersen could bring energy, rebounding and shotblocking off the bench, and it worked out, for the most part. Warkentien also signed Dahntay Jones, who eventually turned into (sort of) a starter for George Karl, and re-signed J.R. Smith.

Now let’s take a look at the job Otis Smith has done (from HoopsHype):

June 7 2007
Released head coach Billy Donovan and named Stan Van Gundy head coach.

February 19 2009
Traded forward Brian Cook to the Houston Rockets for guard Rafer Alston. Traded center Adonal Foyle and guard Mike Wilks to the Memphis Grizzlies.

So, in the last two years, Smith has 1) locked up his two cornerstones (Howard and Nelson) to long term contracts, 2) traded for the versatile Lewis, who wreaked havoc in the Cleveland series, 3) found two starter-quality perimeter players in the draft (Lee) and free agency (Pietrus), 4) found a couple of hard-nosed rotation guys in the draft (Gortat) and free agency (Johnson), 5) pulled off a deal for Rafer Alston when Nelson went down, and 6) found a guy to coach them all up (SVG) after Billy Donovan left the franchise at the altar.

Smith might be a victim of his own reputation. Prior to Lee, he didn’t do well in the draft (Fran Vasquez and Travis Diener in 2005; J.J. Redick and James Augustine in 2006; Reyshawn Terry in 2007), fell for Darko Milicic’s potential in 2006, and traded away Trevor Ariza in 2007.

Bill Simmons writes:

Did Otis Smith plan on this? When he overpaid Lewis, was he thinking, “I need to find a shooter to spread the floor for Dwight?” Was he thinking, “I am going to revolutionize basketball and I need Lewis to help me do it?” Or was he just like a drunk guy at an auction throwing out some insane dollars to make sure he won? I am leaning toward the third scenario, and here’s why: Smith basically gave away Trevor Ariza for Brian Cook and Mo Evans last year. Does Cook make any sense for this ’09 Magic team? Of course not. Does Ariza? Of course. That’s what makes me think Smith stumbled into it. Revolutionary basketball geniuses don’t throw cap space away or give up building blocks for no reason.

I think I’ve written this about fifty times over the past three weeks, but the Magic are built in the same mold as the Hakeem Olajuwon-era Houston Rockets in that they have a dominant big man (who is good enough to command a double team) and have surrounded him with a bunch of shooters. Where the Magic lineup differs from those Houston teams is at power forward, where Lewis’ sharpshooting has replaced Otis Thorpe’s strength and rebounding. The Rockets surrounded Olajuwon with three shooters, while the Magic have gone one step further and have surrounded Howard with four.

Orlando can get away with this because the league is getting smaller. True centers are a rare breed, and power forwards are going from 6’10″ or 6’11″ rebounding/post-up beasts to 6’8″ or 6’9″ versatile forwards with a face-up game. Simmons says this is a result of expansion (and a dilution of the overall talent), but it has more to do with the infusion of international players (who prefer to face up) and a tightening of the amount of contact that defenders can lay on the dribbler. In short, the power forward has become a perimeter player, and other than Dirk Nowitzki, Lewis is about as good of a perimeter power forward as there is in the NBA. (Kevin Garnett, David West, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Antawn Jamison and LaMarcus Aldridge are all power forwards with face-up games, but none of them stretch a defense quite like Nowitzki and Lewis can.)

In all honesty, I still think Smith overpaid for Lewis. I don’t know that there was another team in the running, but at that price tag ($110 million), I doubt it. Lewis should be getting $11-$13 million a season, not the $16-$21 million he’ll be making over the next five years. Still, you can’t argue with the results. The Magic are in the Finals and Lewis is a big reason why.

As for Ariza, which is Simmons’ trump card, let’s not forget — the guy couldn’t shoot a lick when he was in Orlando. He developed his long ball in L.A. and that is one reason why he’s flourishing there. Smith knew he needed shooters at every position other than center, so he wanted a swingman who could play some defense, get to the rim, and be a threat from long range. Ariza was capable in the first two areas, but while in Orlando he showed no signs of becoming a decent three point shooter. Smith went out and signed Pietrus, who was able to (sort of) cover LeBron one-on-one and nail 47% of his threes in the series (and 35% on the year). He’s also athletic enough to get to the rim when he’s crowded on the perimeter. Pietrus is what Smith wanted Ariza to be.

Besides, Simmons should take it easy on Smith. Remember when his favorite GM, Danny Ainge, passed on Brandon Roy in the ’06 Draft so he could acquire Sebastian Telfair from the Blazers? They can’t all be beauties. Ainge went on to win this award in the 2007-08 season. And Cook…on the surface, he didn’t look to be as bad of a fit as he turned out to be. He has size and can shoot it, so Smith might have seen a potential Lewis, Jr. on the horizon. Besides, he turned Cook into Alston after Nelson went down, which was key in getting the Magic to the Finals.

So, even though he didn’t have a splashy move like Iverson-for-Billups, Smith deserves this honor, at least in my book.

We’re down to four teams…Cavs/Magic…Lakers/Nuggets…

What do they have in common? Star power, efficient offense, pretty solid defense, good coaching…check, check, check and check.

But how about an aggressive front office?

Each of these four teams made a major trade in the last two years.

July 11, 2007: The Magic sign Rashard Lewis
This was a sign-and-trade, not a straight free agent signing, but the Magic only had to give up a conditional second round pick. The upside for the then-Seattle Supersonics was a trade exception worth $9 million. The contract (six years, $110 million) seemed outlandish at the time, and Lewis is still overpaid, but the Magic did what they had to do to get him. He’s a great fit for what Orlando is trying to do. They are built like the Rockets were in the Hakeem Olajuwon era — find a big man who commands a double-team, and surround him with great shooters. Lewis is the Magic’s version of Robert Horry in that he’s a lanky, versatile, sharpshooting big man. Strength-wise, he’s not built like a typical power forward, but since the NBA has gotten smaller and quicker over the past few years, he can get by against most teams. Offensively, he creates all sorts of problems for opposing power forwards as he can drill the long ball (career 39% from 3PT) or take it to the rack. He’s also pretty good in the post when teams try to defend him with a smaller player.

Sure, the Magic overpaid on that contract, but I think it’s safe to say that if they hadn’t, they wouldn’t be in the Eastern Conference Finals right now. Lewis is a big, big part of Orlando’s recent success. GM Otis Smith deserves a lot of credit for having the cojones to pull the trigger on this deal.

February 1, 2008: The Lakers trade for Pau Gasol
Also known as “the trade heard ’round the world,” this was the date when the Lakers went from being a Western Conference also-ran to one of the elite teams in the NBA. For Gasol, the Lakers traded Kwame Brown’s expiring contract, point guard Javaris Crittenton (now with Washington, I think), Aaron McKie (to balance the trade out financially), two first round picks and the rights to second round pick (and Pau’s brother), Marc Gasol. Memphis used one of those first round picks to acquire Darrell Arthur, who had a decent if unspectacular rookie season. Marc Gasol turned out to be a pretty good center, though time will tell if he’s really a starter-caliber big man on a playoff team. No matter what Memphis GM Chris Wallace said at the time, this was a straight salary dump for the Grizzlies.

For the Lakers, Gasol gave Kobe a high-IQ sidekick at the PF/C position. He picked up the triangle offense quickly (which is no easy feat) and seemed revitalized by the trade. His scoring and rebounding has remained unchanged, but his FG% took a big jump in the right direction. The Lakers essentially added an All-Star caliber player without losing any of their top eight or nine players. The only knock on Gasol is that he plays soft at times, and that came back to bite the Lakers in the Finals last year. For Laker GM Mitch Kupchak, the trade represented redemption. He (justifiably) took a lot of flack over trading away Caron Butler for Kwame Brown three years earlier, and it was sweet justice that it was Brown’s expiring contract that was the key cog in Wallace’s desire to cut salary.

August 13, 2008: The Cavs acquire Mo Williams
As a Bucks fan, I thought Milwaukee got fleeced in this deal, but given the reports that Williams and All-Star guard Michael Redd simply could not get along, I guess it’s understandable. There were also some salary cap benefits for the Bucks, and without Williams there, Ramon Sessions has had a chance to emerge as a future star at point guard. (Now, if only the Bucks can hold onto him. Sigh.)

For the Cavs, this seems to be the move that put the team over the top, talent-wise. They gave up Damon Jones (big deal) and Joe Smith (who later returned), so like the Lakers did with Pau Gasol, they added an All-Star talent for basically nothing. And just like the Lakers, this has more to do with having an owner that’s willing to spend than it is with any great strategy or tactics in the front office. But I give GM Danny Ferry credit — Williams turned out to be a very nice fit. He had no problem deferring to LeBron (but who would, really) and is given the offensive reins when James hits the bench. He averaged 17.8 points and 4.1 assists this season, but the improvement in his offensive efficiency is the bigger deal. He shot almost 47% from the field and almost 44% from long range, which means his defender can’t spend any time in the lane digging at LeBron’s drives without paying a serious price.

It’s funny that the Cavs were thisclose to adding Redd a few seasons ago and it was the lefty’s relationship with Williams that drove him out of town. The Cavs got their guy in the end.

November 3, 2008: The Nuggets acquire Chauncey Billups
At the time, this trade was considered by many (but not me, I’m happy to say) to be pretty even from a talent standpoint, but it turned out great for the Nuggets and not-so-great for the Pistons. Nuggets GM Mark Warkentien saw that the Allen Iverson/Carmelo Anthony experiment wasn’t working, so he used AI’s monster expiring salary to wrestle one of the best point guards in the league away from the Pistons. Much has been written about what Billups has meant to the Nuggets this season, but I think it’s safe to say that his leadership and commitment to defense are the two biggest factors in Denver’s rise. He’s not threatened by ‘Melo (and vice versa), and the two are able to co-exist in a way that the Iverson/Anthony combination simply couldn’t. Along with the emergence of a finally healthy Nene, the Nuggets truly are the second-best team in the West (at least).

For the Pistons, this move backfired. GM Joe Dumars was trying to clear cap space for this summer (and next), while still keeping the Pistons competitive. Iverson didn’t fit in well, and was a bad match for the personnel already on the roster. By trading away Billups, Dumars essentially gave up any hope of a deep run this postseason. We’ll see how he’s able to rebuild now that he has all of this cap space.

It’s safe to say that the Chauncey Billups-for-Allen Iverson trade hasn’t worked out very well for the 2008-09 Detroit Pistons. The team is 36-39 and is just two games ahead of the 9th place Charlotte Bobcats. The two teams play on Sunday in Detroit, and if the Bobcats can pull out a win, they will be very much in the thick of a playoff spot, meaning that the Pistons could miss the postseason for the first time in…well…forever. (Meanwhile, Billups’ Nuggets are in second place in the West and have won nine of their last 10 games. And Chauncey gets to look at “Bouncing Bridget” every time the Nuggets play a home game.)

Iverson has been fighting a sore back and shin, and the Pistons have elected to use him off the bench for the last three games. During that span, he’s averaging 18.7 minutes, 7.7 points (on 36% shooting) and 2.7 assists. And he’s none too happy about his playing time.

Reporter: You made a comment the other day about how this is a temporary situation. What did you mean by that?

Iverson: I won’t do this again, in my career. I’ll retire before I do this again. I would leave the game before I do this. I can’t be effective like I know I can playing this way. It’s just that I’m not used to it. Just not something I’ve had to do. Like I said, it’s hard for me mentally and physically.

Reporter: So, on a positive note, what can you say about guys coming off the bench?

Iverson: Like I said. I take my hat off to the guys that can do it. And some guys get used to it. They’ve done it before. Like I said, I’ve been playing basketball since I was eight-years-old, and I never had to do it. At 33-years-old, to have to adjust to something like that it’s kind of tough. That’s something I’m dealing with as far as my rhythm, my timing and like I said, the mental part of that.

With the trade, Joe Dumars gave the team a ton of flexibility to rebuild over the next couple of years, but he really sunk these 2008-09 Pistons. With Billups on the roster, they’d be a top 4 team in the East, and with the injuries to Boston’s Kevin Garnett and Orlando’s Jameer Nelson, they’d have a legitimate shot at being the second-best team in the conference. Is that enough?

I don’t know — one injury to LeBron and suddenly the Pistons would be first in line to go the Finals. That seems like a good thing, right?

Only time will tell what kind of free agents Dumars will be able to attract over the next couple of summers. Then we’ll know if this Billups-for-AI swap was worth it.

It was an inauspicious beginning to the AI Era in Detroit.

Iverson himself was respectable (24p, 6a), but the Pistons lost to the Nets, 103-96.

According to ESPN’s Chris Sheridan, the Billups-for-Iverson trade might be more about how Detroit feels about Rodney Stuckey than either of the players involved.

When Detroit needed buckets in the fourth quarter, it was Stuckey running the show at the point, with Iverson off the ball.

And when the Pistons needed stops in the second half, it was Stuckey who continually was getting burned by Devin Harris (career-high 38 points, with 22 of his 24 free throw attempts coming in a second half in which Detroit surrendered 64 points to one of the NBA’s worst teams). All that time, Pistons coach Michael Curry refused to switch Iverson onto Harris — even as Stuckey was committing five fourth-quarter fouls on Harris.

“Stuckey’s the point, and Harris is the point. What we do here in Detroit, you guard your position. And when he comes into the game, Allen slides to the 2. and if Devin Harris is outplaying you, you’re going to have to get better. That’s what you’re going to have to do — play your matchup,” Curry said.

A couple of things jump out from this game: 1) Devin Harris blew up, and he was on my list of “Six NBA players who are about to break out” and 2) Curry refuses to go with the best matchup defensively, instead insisting that each player guard his position (even if it is to the detriment to the team).

I don’t know too many coaches that don’t try to utilize the best matchups defensively. Regular readers know that I played for (current UW coach) Bo Ryan at the University of Wisconsin-Platteville. The other starting forward was the better defender, so Ryan would have him cover the other team’s best scoring forward. That left me with an “easier” matchup, and since I was one of my team’s primary scorers, going with that matchup would save my legs so I could hit crucial jump shots at the end of the game.

So why is Curry insisting that Stuckey – who is actually more of a combo guard – cover the lightning-quick Harris when he has his own lightning-quick guard on the court? It might be pure stubbornness, thickheadedness or he could be trying to light a fire under Stuckey defensively.

But back to the decision to play Iverson off the ball. More and more this trade is looking like one that is meant to keep butts in the seats for this season while giving the team salary cap flexibility to sign one or two big name free agents over the next two summers. Joe Dumars likely saw that, with Billups, the team was going to be competitive, but it wasn’t going to be a legitimate contender. With the backcourt shakeup, it looks like the team is going to give the ball to Stuckey and ask him to create, and it doesn’t really matter if this is the best thing for the 2008-09 Detroit Pistons.

Down the road the Pistons becomes the driving force of big-time free agency as soon as Iverson’s contract comes off the books next summer. The Pistons will combine a winning environment, one of the most respected general managers in the game, and — depending on salary cap levels that are yet to be set, and extensions that may yet be given to existing Pistons — likely enough cap space to sign two free agent players to max contracts over the next summers of 2009 and 2010.

Feast your eyes on this list of players who will be available. 2010 free agents include LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Ray Allen, Tyson Chandler, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Joe Johnson, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Redd.

The two that jump out to me are, of course, Chris Bosh and LeBron James. They played together nicely on Team USA, and now Dumars can at least entertain the notion of signing not one of those two, but both.

A team that suspects one of those players might leave via free agency in 2010 might be compelled to realize some value for the player by dealing with a team under the cap like the Pistons in the summer of 2009. (The NBA’s rules about matching up salaries in trades only apply to teams that are over the salary cap. Once Iverson’s big contract is off the books next summer, the Pistons will be able to deal freely.)

Other than Tayshaun Prince and Jason Maxiell, no other Piston is currently signed through 2011 (though the franchise is likely to exercise its option on Rodney Stuckey’s rookie contract). That puts Detroit’s payroll at an estimated $19 million for the 2010-11 season, which should give the team major salary cap flexibility during the summer of 2010.

Abbott thinks that the Pistons can turn this cap space into two premier players. Throw in Prince, Maxiell and Stuckey, and that’s a nice core.

Update: The Pistons signed Rip Hamilton to a three-year extension worth $34 million that would presumably keep him in Detroit through the 2013 season.

According to Pistons Insider A. Sherrod Blakely of MLive, the Nuggets and Pistons have agreed to a blockbuster trade.

The Detroit Pistons have reached a tentative agreement to trade Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess to the Denver Nuggets for Allen Iverson. Neither player was at this morning’s shoot-around. Team officials said that more information would be forthcoming later today.

See this trade in the ESPN Trade Machine.

I do like this trade for the Nuggets. The Carmelo Anthony/Allen Iverson experiment simply wasn’t working and, if this trade does indeed go through, they would acquire one of the league’s best point guards. Billups is tough-minded and would bring a heavy dose of defense to the Nuggets, who really struggle in that area of the game. AI is 33 and Billups is 32, so it’s not like either team is getting vastly older or younger with this deal.

As for the Pistons, I know they wanted to shake things up, but I’m not sure what this does for them. AI does bring more offensive punch, but he can be a liability on defense. Iverson did average more assists than Billups did last season (7.1 to 6.5), so he is a better playmaker than his reputation would indicate.

Read more about the future implications of this trade in my post, “Detroit now a possible landing spot for LeBron?“