What is a “thin line,” you ask? Well, I’m not 100% sure I coined it, but it’s my term for a player who scores, but brings almost nothing else — rebounds, assists, steals or blocks — to the table.

In order to determine who has the thinnest line in the NBA, I divided the player’s points by the sum of their rebounds, assists, steals and blocks to come up with the Thin Line Ratio (TLR). The bigger the number, the thinner the line.

To be eligible, a player has to average at least 20 minutes per game. And to be fair to the biggest scorers in the league, if their rebounds, assists, steals and blocks add up to 10+ per game, then they’re not eligible. So players like Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Danny Granger and Kobe Bryant are in the clear. I figure any player who is posting 10+ in those four categories is bringing plenty to the table.

So here’s a look at the 10 thinnest lines in the NBA:

1. Kevin Martin (TLR: 2.89)
2. Jamal Crawford (2.79)
3. Marcus Thornton (2.69)
4. Ben Gordon (2.51)
5. Eric Gordon (2.43)
6. Ray Allen (2.43)
7. Jason Terry (2.36)
8. Richard Hamilton (2.33)
9. Corey Maggette (2.31)
10. J.J. Redick (2.28)

Surprise, surprise…that’s a list of nine or ten shooting guards, depending on how you classify Corey Maggette (and maybe Jamal Crawford). These are players whose job it is to shoot the ball and they obviously embrace that role. You won’t see these players battling for rebounds or doing a lot of penetrate and dish.

The top point guard in TLR? Aaron Brooks (2.19), winner of this year’s Most Improved Player award.

The top small forward (other than Maggette)? Josh Howard (2.12)

The top power forward? Bill Walker (2.14), but he played in just 35 games. Al Harrington (2.12) was the next highest PF on the list.

The top center? Andrea Bargnani (1.91), but is he really a center? The next highest eligible center is Channing Frye (1.33).

Who has the thickest line (i.e. the lowest TLR)?

PG – Jason Kidd (0.61)
SG – Thabo Sefolosha (0.72)
SF – Luc Mbah a Moute (0.78)
PF – Jared Jeffries (0.71)
C – Marcus Camby (0.43)

Jason Kidd plus four defensive specialists. Boy, that would be some ugly offense, but they’d be a bitch to score on.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

After the season, I like to tackle questions like these. To me, a good three-point shooter has to shoot a high percentage and make a good number of threes per game, so I put a few requirements on the eligibility of players:

1. They must have played in a minimum of 60 games during the season.
2. They must make a minimum of 38% of their 3PT attempts.
3. They must make a minimum of 1.0 threes per game.

Here are the results:

(As always, click on the graph for a larger version.)

Most impressive shooter? It has to be the rookie Stephen Curry, who quickly adjusted to the longer distance in the NBA and finished with the fourth-highest percentage of eligible players. He was also in the top 10 in makes per game.

Biggest surprise? Probably Jason Kidd. A career 35% shooter from deep, Kidd has been well over 40% since joining the Mavs. He’s hitting more of his threes because he’s able to play off of Dirk Nowitzki and can spot up instead of trying to hit threes off the dribble.

Best big man shooter? Channing Frye, who hit 2.12 threes a game at a 44% clip.

So who is the best shooter in the NBA? Well, it depends on your criteria. Accuracy and number of makes are important, but it’s even more impressive when the player in question is the first or second option on his team (like Aaron Brooks, Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, John Salmons, Steve Nash — or Jason Richardson — and Stephen Curry), and can still make a lot of threes at a high percentage when the defense is game-planning against him.

You be the judge.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

When handicapping the NBA MIP award, I always like to look at the player’s original draft position. Here’s a table with the last 20 winners of the MIP award. Take a look:

Notice anything? Only one MIP winner in the last 16 years (Tracy McGrady) was drafted in the first 12 picks.

It appears that the voters don’t just look at overall improvement, they also take into account unexpected improvement.

Looking at TrueHoop’s list of MIP candidates that received more than one vote from a panel of voters, here are draft positions for each player: Kevin Durant (2), Andrew Bogut (1), Corey Brewer (7), Joakim Noah (9), Josh Smith (17), Russell Westbrook (4), Aaron Brooks (26), Anderson Varejao (30), Channing Frye (8), Al Horford (3), Andray Blatche (49) and Zach Randolph (19).

Can we safely cross Durant, Bogut, Noah, Westbrook, Frye and Horford off the list?

Actually, I’m not sure. I don’t remember a year when there were so many top candidates drafted in the first ten picks. The top non-lottery pick is Josh Smith, and he averaged more points and almost as many rebounds two seasons ago. I don’t think the writers are going to look at his career stats and think improvement even though he played much headier ball this season (as evidenced by his improved shot selection and increased assists).

Of all the non-lottery candidates, Aaron Brooks best fits the MIP profile. Here are his numbers year over year:

2008-09: 11.2 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.0 rpg, 40% FG%, 37% 3PT
2009-10: 19.6 ppg, 5.3 apg, 2.7 rpg, 43% FG%, 40% 3PT

I think he’s going to win the award, but a case could be made for the first four players on the list:

1. Kevin Durant was supposed to get better, but I don’t think that there were too many pundits predicting a 30-8-3 season and 50 wins for the Thunder. He averaged 25-7-3 the year before, so his stats don’t really reflect his improvement. I think this will hurt him in the MIP race. (It also doesn’t help that he’s also on the short list for MVP.)

2. Andrew Bogut might be the darkhorse. Yes, he’s a former #1 overall pick, but he’s been around just long enough for people to give up on him. A little more than a year ago, a buddy of mine said he was a bust. I know he was trying to tweak me — I’m a sometimes-proud Bucks fan — but still, since he was the top overall pick, we’re expecting more than the 12-10 that Bogut posted in 2008-09. We were expecting a star, and that’s exactly what Bogut became this season. He averaged 16-10, and was second in the league in blocks (2.5) and fourth in charges drawn per game. In fact, he was second in the league in HoopData’s stat “DEF” which tallies the total number of blocks, steals and charges. (It should be noted that Josh Smith was the player ahead of him, though I don’t know that too many MIP voters dig this deep into statistics.) In the end, the Bucks’ emergence as a playoff team, Bogut’s improvement on both ends of the court, and his season-ending arm injury might produce a groundswell of support in terms of winning the MIP.

3. Corey Brewer averaged 6-3-2 last season and 13-3-2 this season. That’s a nice jump in scoring, but Brooks’ improvement was more impressive.

4. Joakim Noah averaged 7-8 last season and posted 11-11 this year. That’s also an impressive improvement, but we saw it coming, didn’t we? If Noah gets starters minutes, there’s a great chance that he’s going to post a d
ouble-double. It doesn’t fit the profile of unexpected improvement.

What about George Hill? He only got one vote from the TrueHoop panel, but the former 26th overall pick improved his numbers from 6-2-2 last season to 12-3-3 this season, and was a big reason why the Spurs stayed in the playoff picture even though they lost Tony Parker for part of the season.

So, in terms of the MIP profile — a big statistical jump from a non-lottery draft pick — I think Brooks is the frontrunner, but Bogut has an outside shot and Hill is the guy (almost) no one seems to be talking about.

But should anyone even want to win this award? In its history, no MIP winner has ever won a NBA championship. Strange, but true.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

What constitutes a “breakout” season? To me, it’s a talented player who has been in the league at least one year who is about to see a big increase in minutes. Here is a list of 10 players (in no particular order) who I think will have career seasons in 2009-10.

1. Tyrus Thomas, Bulls
The 23 year-old is entering his fourth season and will probably be the Bulls’ starter at power forward. He averaged 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds in 27.5 minutes last season, and an increase in minutes would enhance those numbers. Now that he has an effective mid-range jump shot, he can use that and his athleticism to get to the basket.

2. Anthony Randolph, Warriors
Randolph is a popular breakout pick this season after a great summer league and flashes of brilliance in his rookie year. He only played about 18 minutes per game last season, and is playing almost 28 minutes in the preseason, starting every game in which he’s appeared. Don Nelson may not start him during the regular season since he’s been battling some injuries, but expect him to get plenty of run this year.

3. Anthony Morrow, Warriors
Let’s stay in Oakland, shall we? Not to read too much into preseason stats, but through eight games, the second-year Morrow is averaging 22.0 points on 58% shooting (52% from 3PT). He’s going to come off the bench, but that might not last for long if Stephen Jackson eventually gets traded. Morrow is one of the league’s best shooters, nailing almost 47% of his threes a year ago.

4. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
With Yao Ming out and Tracy McGrady hobbled, the Rockets don’t have a whole lot of offensive options and Brooks is one of the best shooters the team has. He averaged 11.2 points in 25 minutes per game last season. If he gets 32-35 minutes per game, he should average somewhere in the 14-16 ppg range.

5. Louis Williams, 76ers
He’s a very different player than Andre Miller, the guy he’s being asked to replace. He isn’t going to drop a lot of dimes, but the guy can score, and if he gets starter’s minutes his averages are going to jump. In the preseason, he’s averaging 14.9 ppg in 27 minutes of PT.

6. Courtney Lee / Chris Douglas-Roberts, Nets
I’m listing them both because it’s not clear which will be the Nets’ starting shooting guard on opening day. It may not matter because the other might be the starting small forward. In the preseason, CDM and Lee are averaging 18.5 ppg and 17.0 ppg, respectively. While Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are likely to lead the Nets in scoring, Lee and Douglas-Roberts could both average 12-14 ppg.

7. J.R. Smith, Nuggets
Smith has already had a breakout year (in his first season with the Nuggets), but the departure of Dahntay Jones gives Smith the chance to start. George Karl started Jones last season because of his commitment to defense, so it’s just as likely that he finds another defensive-oriented off guard to fill that vacated role. Smith has the talent to start, but can he keep his head on straight and play enough defense to keep Karl happy? (By the way, he’s suspended for the first seven games.)

8. Channing Frye, Suns
After a nice rookie season (12p/6r) in New York, Frye wasn’t as good in his second season and landed in Portland where he didn’t get much run. Now he’s the starting center in Phoenix and is averaging 12.3 points and 4.0 rebounds in 26.8 minutes of playing time. The Suns are awfully thin on the front line, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Frye ends up playing 30-35 minutes a game.

9. Julian Wright, Hornets
While he isn’t shooting particularly well (41%) in the preseason, it appears that Byron Scott has finally given up on Peja Stojakovic and is ready to hand over the keys to Wright, who has started all six preseason games in which he has appeared. He’s a great athlete and versatile player, but the big mystery with Wright is his three-point shooting. He hit 10-24 attempts in his rookie season, but just 2-21 in his second year. The Hornets need shooters for Chris Paul to pass to, so if Wright doesn’t start knocking down shots, Scott might go back to Peja.

10. Hakim Warrick, Bucks
Warrick is leading the Bucks in preseason scoring with 14.4 ppg. He’ll battle with Luc Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova and Joe Alexander for minutes. Scott Skiles will likely start Mbah a Moute at one forward spot because he’s a great defender, but the other is up for grabs. Regardless, Warrick should get plenty of minutes and is on a one-year contract, so he’s very motivated.

It looks like Anderson Varejao is staying in Cleveland.

Varejao’s contract is worth $42.5 million over the six years, and the final year is only partially guaranteed. Incentives could push the total amount to $50 million.

Varejao’s agent, Dan Fegan, says that the Cavs turned down a few sign-and-trade offers.

“I’m excited about it,” Fegan said. “I will tell you several teams made sign-and trade proposals where Anderson could have made $10 million or $11 million a year. Some very good players would have been involved.

“He wanted to stay in Cleveland. There were also a number of teams with cap space, like Oklahoma City and Portland, who were interested.”

I estimated Varejao’s value to be somewhere in the $5.5-$6.5 million per year range, so without the incentives, this contract came in a little bit above that. The thing I worry about from the Cavs’ perspective is the fact that it’s going to be tough to play Varejao and Shaquille O’Neal together because neither guy has the ability to hit an open 15-foot jumper. This will allow the defense to sag into the lane which will help to close off LeBron’s drives.

In addition, the Cavs have a verbal agreement with Anthony Parker (formerly of the Raptors) and have their sights set on Channing Frye.

The Cavs have also agreed to terms with Toronto free agent Anthony Parker. The final figures of the deal are not set, but he will receive a portion of the $5.8 mid-level exception for either two or three years.

The Cavs hope to sign Channing Frye with the remainder of their mid-level exception.

Shaq is clearly a short-term fix, but with the Varejao, Parker and possible Frye signings, and assuming the salary cap falls to somewhere in the $50 million to $53 million range, the Cavs aren’t going to have the cap space necessary next summer to woo a big-name free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. They may still be able to work out a sign-and-trade, but with roughly $30 million already spoken for heading into 2010, the Cavs won’t have the cap space to make two maximum contract offers.

Cleveland is clearly treating this as a “must-win” season, but what happens if they flame out in the playoffs again?