There are four games left — Duke/FSU, Miss. St./Tenn, Ohio St./Purdue and the Southland final — but just one, the SEC final, has bubble implications. Despite their tournament run, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will have to beat Tennessee to get a berth, and the Volunteers are already in.

As of this morning, Joe Lunardi says the last four teams in will be Minnesota, Maryland, Creighton and Saint Mary’s. His first four out are Penn St., Arizona, San Diego State and Auburn. His next four out are Florida, New Mexico, UNLV and Tulsa.

It seems odd to me that he has SDSU out of tournament after the Aztecs finished the season with back-to-back wins against a bubble team (UNLV), a win over an in-the-Dance team (BYU) and a near-miss against another in-the-Dance team (Utah). Sure, SDSU doesn’t have a marquee win, but neither does Saint Mary’s. I guess Lunardi points to the head-to-head matchup (which the Aztecs lost) as the difference. But SDSU is playing better right now, so it depends on how much stock the committee puts in late season versus early season play. Also, SDSU lost to Arizona by 13 (on the road), so that can’t help either.

It’s also odd to see Creighton back in after being on the “first four out” or “next four out” lists all week. After all, they didn’t do anything to improve their situation after losing by 24 points against Illinois State. SDSU has a tougher schedule (35 vs. 111), a better RPI (35 to 40) and Creighton doesn’t have a single win against a top 25 RPI team. (The Aztecs beat Utah back in January.) Maybe SDSU doesn’t deserve a nod over Saint Mary’s or even Arizona, but they should get in before the Blue Jays do.

It seems to me that if Mississippi State loses, there are two spots available for five teams: Creighton, Saint Mary’s, SDSU, Arizona and Penn State. If the Bulldogs win, there will just be one spot available for those five teams.

On the flip side, Lunardi has removed UConn from his top line and replaced the Huskies with the Memphis Tigers, who blew out Tulsa en route to their 987th straight C-USA title. I just don’t know what to make of Memphis. They lost to Syracuse at home, lost to Xavier on a neutral court and had a road loss to Georgetown. They did blow Gonzaga out by 18 in Spokane, and that’s their only really good win. I watched some of the C-USA championship game and they didn’t wow me despite beating Tulsa (#56 RPI) at the FedEx Forum.

Michigan State and Oklahoma knocked themselves out of contention for a #1 seed with poor performances in the conference tournaments, but Duke can make a case if they can beat Florida State in the ACC tourney. Either way, I think North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt and Memphis will be the #1 seeds and Oklahoma, Duke, Michigan State and UConn will be #2 seeds, just as Lunardi has it. I don’t think there is anyone on his #3 line — Kansas, Missouri, Wake Forest and Villanova — that has a strong argument to be a #2 seed.

Bookmark this page and check back periodically for my thoughts as I watch the scores roll in on Thursday. There are at least 10 bubble teams in action today, starting with Providence/Louisville in the Big East quarterfinals.

1:32 AM: I’m going to hit the hay. I’ll be back tomorrow at 12 PM ET to start this all again. New Mexico is currently down seven to Wyoming with two minutes to play, so their bubble might be bursting tonight. It was a great day of basketball capped by one of the best games I’ve ever seen.

1:25 AM: The Orangemen finally prevailed, 127-117 (6 OT). Syracuse plays a ton of zone and I think that gave them an advantage in a game of this length. When you’re playing man to man, you have to go from side to side (of the half court) to cover your guy. When you’re in a zone, you just cover an area, so there’s less running involved. Over the course of a regular 40-minute game, it doesn’t make that much of a difference, but if you give a player the choice of playing 70 minutes of man-to-man or 70 minutes of zone, they’ll pick zone. Zone simply requires less effort, and I think the Orangemen had more in the tank at the end. I’m exhausted and I didn’t play a minute. What a great game…

1:07 AM: This is insane. This UConn/Syracuse game just went to a 6TH OVERTIME! Forget about the winner having any gas left in the tank for tomorrow night. Hell, they might not even show up to play.

12:57 AM: Bill Rafferty with the line of the night, “These guys are so tired they’re going to need cabs to get to the other end of the court.” A.J. Price has been great in the last two OTs.

12:47 AM: Wow, what a game in New York. UConn and Syracuse are in a 5TH OVERTIME. My TiVo ran out of space at the end of the second overtime, so I checked the internet to see who won and I saw that the game was still going on. So I flipped it on and watched the 4th OT. Hasheem Thabeet just fouled out, but Syracuse couldn’t finish at the rim with time winding down. Five more minutes.

11:06 PM: USC just beat Cal in a tight one, so the Trojans are still alive for an NCAA berth. Mizzou is controlling its game against Texas Tech as is Boston College in its game versus Virginia. UConn and Syracuse are battling with about nine minutes left on ESPN. The Huskies are up two and probably need the win if they hope to secure a #1 seed next week.

10:00 PM: USC is beating Cal by 15 at halftime. The Trojans are a team that could play their way into a bid with a few wins in the Pac-10 tourney. Their RPI (61) and SOS (27) aren’t bad, but they’re 0-4 against Top 25 RPI teams.

9:17 PM: Down goes Pitt! Down goes Oklahoma! The Panthers lost to a very good West Virginia team that was helped by DeJuan Blair’s foul trouble. Watch out for the Mountaineers in the tourney. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State nipped Oklahoma in a great game, which means that the top two seeds in the Big 12 tourney have been knocked out (and Missouri has yet to play). OSU was already in, but now the door is open for a team like Baylor or Texas Tech to get a bid by winning the tourney. The other three teams still alive – OSU, Mizzou and Texas — are already in. In the ACC, Maryland beat NC State to keep the Terps’ slim NCAA hopes alive. They really need to win another game or two to have a legit shot.

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Strap ‘em up, kids. Championship Week is upon us!

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s square off tonight in the final of the WCC tourney (9 PM ET, and why isn’t this game on national television?), and with the Gaels’ #45 RPI, they could really use a win to guarantee a NCAA tourney berth. The good news is that their leading scorer, Patrick Mills, is back, scoring 12 points in 35 minutes in yesterday’s win over Portland. If Saint Mary’s loses to the ‘Zags, it would put the Gaels squarely on the bubble. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Saint Mary’s as a #10 seed, but I think that assumes that the committee will take Mills’ injury into account. After all, he was out of the lineup for three of the team’s five losses. Lunardi says that the Gaels are safe, but they don’t have a marquee win and are just 2-2 against the RPI top 50, so anything can happen.

But let’s move on to the “major� conference tournaments that will take place this week. I’m going to tackle these one-by-one in the order of Jeff Sagarin’s conference rankings.

ACC

Lunardi projects six ACC teams – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College – to make the Dance, and of those teams only BC really has anything to worry about. The Eagles (#57 RPI) are probably safe, but a first round loss on Thursday against Virginia might make BC squirm a bit on Selection Sunday.

Miami, Maryland and Virginia Tech are three teams that could play themselves into an NCAA berth with a nice ACC tourney run. What do I mean by “a nice run�? Well, Virginia Tech and Miami square off on Thursday, so if whomever wins gives North Carolina a great game on Friday, that might be enough. The Hurricanes are a bit closer than the Hokies, so VT would probably have to pull the upset against the Tar Heels to earn a bid. Miami could potentially get in with an 18-12 record and a #53 RPI (against the 26th-toughest schedule) if they were to lose to North Carolina.

Meanwhile, Maryland has to beat N.C. State on Thursday and then (at least) pull the upset against the seemingly vulnerable Demon Deacons on Friday.

As far as #1 seeds go, North Carolina pretty much sewed one up with their second win against Duke on Sunday. Neither the Blue Devils nor Demon Deacons would seem to have a shot at one of the other three #1 seeds. It’s conceivable that Duke would be able to make a case if they win the ACC Tournament (beating Wake and UNC in the process) and a few of the teams ranked ahead of them have poor conference showings. Despite the brutal schedule (#3) and stellar RPI (3), Duke is realistically shooting for a #2 or #3 seed.

ACC Tournament bracket