It’s always funny to hear pundits say that one team can’t beat another in a seven-game series. In most cases, those teams can spring the upset, but that doesn’t mean that they will. Such is the case in the Eastern Conference Finals where the Orlando Magic will try to upend the Cleveland Cavaliers.

No team has been more impressive in the postseason than the Cavs. They swept both the Pistons and the Hawks, and seem destined for the Finals. They have the best player in the league in LeBron James, a sharpshooting sidekick in Mo Williams and a host of players willing to fill their respective roles. Simply stated, they look unstoppable right now.

Conversely, the Magic struggled at times in their seven-game series against the Celtics, though that might have more to do with Boston’s defense and championship pedigree than anything the Magic were doing wrong. This Cavs/Magic series would be a lot more interesting if Jameer Nelson were healthy, but Rafer Alston has been a decent stopgap at point guard, and Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are proving to be nice complements for big man Dwight Howard. The Magic are built like the Rockets were in the Hakeem Olajuwon era in that they have a center that demands a double team and have surrounded him with a number of players who can make teams pay from the perimeter. The problem is that Howard isn’t nearly the passer or the free throw shooter that Olajuwon was, so he’s not a great option in crunch time. The Magic have a tendency to fall in love with the long ball and don’t have a guy who can get to the rim on a consistent basis. But if Orlando is knocking down their threes (as they were in Game 7 of the Boston series), they’re nearly unstoppable.

The biggest challenge in upsetting the Cavs is how to deal with LeBron. Can Turkoglu stay with him? No. Lewis? Probably not. Mickael Pietrus has the athleticism to bother LeBron, but he’s not known as a lockdown defender. Orlando actually won the season series, 2-1, but both wins were at home. LeBron averaged more than 30 points per game against the Magic, but Orlando did a pretty nice job of making him work for his points, holding him to 43% from the field. If that trend continues, and no one else steps up for the Cavs, the Magic have a real shot.

Unless Ben Wallace discovers the Fountain of Youth, Howard should have his way inside. He’ll have to earn many of his points from the free throw line because the Cavs have a number of bigs who will no doubt use their fouls to keep Howard from getting easy dunks. LeBron will probably draw Turkoglu, which is bad news for the former Most Improved Player. Lewis is really going to have to step up in this series, as he’ll likely draw Anderson Varejao (or possibly Zydrunas Ilgauskas) defensively. Other than Howard, that’s the only position where the Magic have a distinct advantage over the Cavs. It will be a good sign for the Magic if LeBron is forced to switch from Turkoglu to Lewis and back — that means that whoever he’s not guarding is having an impact offensively.

Some experts are picking the Cavs to sweep, but if the Magic play well, this series can definitely go the distance. Orlando was prone to spurts of poor play in the Boston series, but they won’t be able to get away with that against the Cavs. Keep an eye on Cleveland’s shooting percentage and the Magic’s long range accuracy. Those two stats are a good gauge of Orlando’s chances.

Cleveland fans shouldn’t underestimate how important this series is for the Cavs’ chances of re-signing LeBron next summer. If the Cavs flame out before the Finals, the LeBron to NY/NJ rumors are bound to heat up again.

The conference finals are set, so it’s time to update our playoff power rankings…

Note: Click on the team name to read a short offseason blueprint.

R.I.P.

16. Pistons
15. Sixers
14. Heat
13. Mavericks
Even though it ended with a disappointing finish against the Nuggets, the Mavs made a pretty nice run this year. Mark Cuban’s payroll this season ($94.7 million) was ridiculous, but it’s not clear that he really gives a damn. He wants an NBA title and seems willing to pay for it. That said, Jason Kidd is a free agent and will have to take a big pay cut from his 2008-09 salary ($21.4 million). Kidd is 36 years old, but he’s still a top 15 NBA point guard. But how much longer can he play at that level? By letting him go, they’d be setting themselves back a year or two as they try to find a replacement. The Mavs really shot themselves in the foot when they traded away Devin Harris. Brandon Bass is also a free agent and according to his PER (16.49) and the eye-test, he’s an above-average power forward. He’s starter-cailber or a great bench player for a good playoff team. It’s going to be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets in this economy.

12. Hawks
11. Hornets
10. Bulls
9. Jazz
8. Rockets
All the key cogs are back save for free agent Ron Artest. The Rockets are about $8 million under the luxury tax threshold, so they can re-sign him and have about the same payroll as they did this season. He hasn’t turned 30 yet, so a three- or four-year deal wouldn’t be outrageous. But do the Rockets want to move forward with him? In the last four games of the Laker series, he shot 28% from the field, so he’s a different player without Yao Ming (or T-Mac) in the lineup. He’s at his best offensively when he’s more of a complementary player. Of the teams with substantial cap space — the Grizzlies, Pistons, Hawks, Thunder, Kings, Raptors, Blazers and T-Wolves — who would be interested in rolling the dice on Artest? Maybe the Blazers or Raptors, but I doubt any of the other teams would be interested. So that means that the Rockets might be able to retain him for a mid-level deal. If so, and if Houston can get Yao Ming and T-Mac healthy, they’d be a very formidable team heading into the postseason — but injuries have been their problem since they acquired T-Mac and Yao.

7. Blazers
6. Spurs
5. Celtics
I don’t think there’s any reason for Danny Ainge to panic. The reason the C’s were knocked out early in this year’s playoffs is pretty simple — Kevin Garnett was not healthy. If KG were playing at a high level, we’d be getting ready for a very interesting Cleveland/Boston matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals, but without him, the Celtics aren’t the same team. The “Big Three” are all locked up for another season, so the key is to get everyone healthy and make another run. One thing standing in Boston’s way is the fact that Garnett’s absence allowed Glen “Big Baby” Davis to thrive (15.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and he suddenly looks like a starting-caliber power forward. With Garnett’s contract running three more seasons, it’s going to be hard for Ainge to justify making a big investment in a player that should be coming off the bench for a playoff-caliber team. But what kind of interest is Davis going to generate around the league? I doubt anyone signs him for more than the mid-level, but even the price of a mid-level contract — $5.8 million (or thereabouts) — is going to cost the Celtics twice that since they will likely be over the luxury tax threshold. If I’m Ainge, I would try to convince Davis to stay for three-years and $9 million and explain that he’s the future at power forward once Garnett retires. In 2012, Garnett will be 36 and Davis will be 26 — a good time for a transition. It’s going to be a tough sell if another team offers him a full mid-level deal (five years, $29 million), but I don’t think that’s likely in this economy. The C’s do have Leon Powe as a backup plan if Davis leaves. He doesn’t have the offensive skills of Davis, but if Garnett is healthy, Powe’s hard-nosed inside play is a nice complement.

ROAD BLOCKS

4. Magic
3. Nuggets
I still think we’re headed for a Cavs/Lakers matchup in the Finals, but both the Magic and Nuggets are capable of upsetting the apple cart if they play a great series. Right now, the Nuggets seem to be more likely to spring the upset since they’re playing so well and the Lakers have been struggling. They have a number of offensive weapons — Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Nene and J.R. Smith — and are playing better defense than in years past. The Lakers are going to have to play really well in at least four games to get by the Nuggets.

The Magic are coming off a grueling seven-game series in which they dispatched the defending champs (sans Kevin Garnett). I wouldn’t say that they are playing “well,” but they did play great in Game 7 and pretty good in Game 6. If they can carry that kind of performance over to the Cavs series, they have a shot. They match up with Cleveland pretty well, though they better have a good scheme ready for LeBron. Mickael Pietrus can hold his own athletically, but if Hedo Turkoglu and/or Rashard Lewis are trying to keep LeBron out of the lane (without a ton of help), things could get ugly.

DESTINED FOR THE FINALS?

2. Lakers
1. Cavs
The Cavs have definitely looked stronger thus far, but it’s way too early to count the Lakers out. I still think that the Lakers have the personnel matchup, but their bipolar nature and the Cavs’ home court advantage make me wonder. The Lakers dominated both regular season matchups, so if we do get a Cavs/Lakers Finals, it should be a classic.

Check back tomorrow for a more detailed preview of the conference finals.

Sure, with its seven-game format, the NBA Playoffs aren’t quite as consistently dramatic as March Madness, but there are a number of compelling storylines as we head into this year’s postseason. Will KG return in time to help the Celtics try to repeat? Will LeBron and the Cavs ride home court advantage to the Finals? Can Chris Paul and the Hornets put a less-than-stellar regular season behind them and make a run? Can Kobe finally win a title without Shaq?

The Playoffs start on Saturday, and looking at the matchups, I think I have a pretty good idea how things will play out. Granted, I’m likely to make a few mistakes along the way, but that’s part of the fun, right?

#1 Cavaliers vs. #8 Pistons
Let’s see – the Pistons limped into the playoffs, going 8-9 in March and 3-5 in April. Earlier in the season, they traded away arguably their best player (Chauncey Billups) and the guy they got in return (Allen Iverson) is (rumored to be) spending his time getting banned from the local casinos. If Detroit had held onto Billups, maybe they’d be able to make this a series, but without him, they’re floundering. I hope Joe Dumars has fun with that cap space!

#4 Hawks vs. #5 Heat
Here’s a first round battle between two teams that don’t have a legitimate chance of making the Finals. If the NBA were to adopt a single-elimination format (or even three-game series across the board), maybe….maybe…one of these teams could get hot and make a run. As it stands, the winner will have the right to face a determined Cavs team in the second round. Not that it matters, but I’m going with the Hawks here. They have home court advantage, have won three of four against the Heat this season and are simply a better team. Hats off to Dwyane Wade for willing the Heat this far, but I don’t think we’re going to see a LeBron/D-Wade matchup in the second round. (Not unless Jermaine O’Neal discovers the Fountain of Youth by this weekend.)

#2 Celtics vs. #7 Bulls
Don’t look now, but the Bulls are (kind of) hot. They’ve won 12 of their last 16 games, including home wins against Boston and New Orleans. Normally, I’d take the C’s and not think twice, but with Kevin Garnett out for the foreseeable future, this is suddenly an interesting series. Boston is 18-7 without Garnett (8-5 against playoff teams), so the Celtics are still a solid team without their star forward. I think home court should be enough to allow Boston to move on, but don’t be surprised if Chicago springs the upset.

#3 Magic vs. #6 Sixers
The Sixers were 12-15 with Elton Brand and 29-26 without him. Ouch. Philly had lost six straight games before beating a Cavs team that was resting its starters. The Magic swept the season series. Despite the Orlando’s mediocre play in April, the Magic should advance.

#1 Lakers vs. #8 Jazz
Utah gave L.A. some problems last year, taking the Lakers to six games. Moreover, every game in the series was competitive. The Jazz have the tools to cause headaches for the Lakers, but Utah is 2-7 in its last nine, so I don’t see an upset here.

#4 Trail Blazers vs. #5 Rockets
Houston is 16-7 in March and April, but just 7-6 against playoff teams. Portland is 18-6 (and 6-6) over the same span. What does this tell us? Not much, but I already counted up the wins so I didn’t want the work to go to waste. Something tells me that the Blazers are going to have a tough time matching Ron Artest’s mental toughness, but I’m rooting for a Portland win so they can move on and face the Lakers (whom they’ve beaten twice in the last 39 days). The Blazers have home court, so let’s hope that’s enough.

#2 Nuggets vs. #7 Hornets
At the start of the season, I thought these seeds would be reversed. I can’t believe how well Denver has played since Chauncey Billups’ arrival (and without Marcus Camby). New Orleans limped into the playoffs (going 3-6 in April) and they just don’t look like the same team that took San Antonio to seven games in last year’s Western Conference Semifinals. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won 14 of their last 17 and have home court advantage. It’s going to be a great battle at point guard between Billups and Chris Paul, but Denver is just playing better ball right now. I’m going with the Nuggets, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Hornets pulled the upset.

#3 Spurs vs. #6 Mavericks
With Manu Ginobili sidelined, the Mavs have a real shot to upset the Spurs, but I don’t think Jason Kidd can handle Tony Parker’s quickness. TP is averaging 31.3 points (on 52% shooting) and 7.3 assists his four regular season games against Dallas. Parker should go nuts, so if Tim Duncan’s knees hold up, the Spurs will advance, and there will be several shots of Mark Cuban looking unhappy in the stands. (Anyone want to pool some money together and pay for Devin Harris to sit in the same section? That would be awesome.)

#1 Cavaliers vs. #4 Hawks
Atlanta does have the personnel to give the Cavs some problems, but LeBron seems destined for a Finals appearance this season and the Hawks have really struggled to slow him down in the two team’s four meetings this season. (Cleveland is 3-1 in those games.) Mo Williams averaged 23.3 points and shot almost 54% against the Hawks this season, and with the way LeBron is playing defense right now, I don’t see Joe Johnson carrying the Hawks to more than a couple of wins. Cavs advance.

#2 Celtics vs. #3 Magic
Anyone who followed my March Madness picks knows that I’m not optimistic when it comes to pre-tournament injuries. (Damn you, Ty Lawson!) Such is the case with KG’s knees – according to Doc Rivers, he may not be able to play again this postseason, and if he’s not at or near 100%, the Magic have the advantage in this series. It’s true that Orlando is without Jameer Nelson, but Rafer Alston has been an adequate replacement. I’d feel a lot better picking this upset if the Magic had played better down the stretch, but let’s assume that they lost focus late in the season with virtually nothing on the line. Orlando pulls the upset.

#1 Lakers vs. #4 Trail Blazers
The Lakers won the first two meetings (in L.A.) by an average of 17 points, but the Blazers won the last two in Portland by 17 (in March) and by eight (in April). The Lakers have now lost eight straight at the Rose Garden, but with home court advantage, they don’t have to win in Portland. I expect the young Blazers to put up a fight, but ultimately lose this series in six or seven. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol provide a great one-two punch, but the Lakers will need some production out of Derek Fisher or Jordan Farmar somewhere along the line to reach the Finals. Given the state of the teams in the other side of the West bracket, the Blazers (or even the Rockets, if they advance) could give the Lakers their toughest conference test. This will be good experience for the young Blazers who look poised to dominate the West in the not-too-distant future.

#2 Nuggets vs. #3 Spurs
Ugh. I’m not a believer in the Nuggets, and I’m not optimistic about the Spurs given Manu Ginobili’s absence and Tim Duncan’s knees. The Nuggets have home-court advantage in this series thanks to a 2-1 regular season record against the Spurs. Tony Parker didn’t play in either of the Spurs’ losses, and he’s going to have to come up huge for the Spurs to advance. Without Ginobili, the Spurs are in a bad way, but I’d feel worse about picking Denver to advance to the Western Conference Finals, so San Antonio it is.

#1 Cavaliers vs. #3 Magic
With Jameer Nelson in the lineup, the Magic would have had a shot, but they don’t have anyone to contain LeBron on the wing. James averaged 30.7 points in three games against Orlando, but didn’t shoot all that well (43%). Mo Williams has really struggled against the Magic, shooting 38% from the field and scoring just 14.3 ppg. The Magic were 2-1 against the Cavs this season, but both wins were at home. Orlando will want to make this game a grind, but LeBron should be able to get to the line enough to give the Cavs the advantage in the clutch. Given Orlando’s struggles down the stretch, it will be an accomplishment to get this far, so let’s hope that Stan Van Gundy doesn’t give himself another ulcer on the sideline.

#1 Lakers vs. #3 Spurs
The Spurs couldn’t beat the Lakers last year with Ginobili in the lineup and Andrew Bynum sidelined, so I don’t see them beating L.A. without Ginobili and with Bynum back and looking pretty good. Nothing to see here. Lakers advance.

#1 Cavaliers vs. #1 Lakers
With KG hobbled and the C’s looking vulnerable, this is the matchup that everyone wants to see. Kobe wants a Shaq-less title so badly, he can taste it. (No jokes about Shaq’s freestyle rap, please.) It has been his singular focus for the last few seasons, and he can sense that the window is closing. His Lakers fell to the Celtics in last year’s Finals in part because Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen had that same focus, while the rest of the Lakers simply did not. The Cavs should have an advantage at point guard with Mo Williams who is quicker than Fisher and more experienced (and more confident) than Farmar. The Lakers can throw Kobe and Trevor Ariza at LeBron on the defensive end, and have an advantage inside with Gasol and Bynum (versus Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao). The Lakers swept the season series, and LeBron shot a combined 14 for 45 (31%) in the two games, so it looks like the Lakers might have his number from a defensive standpoint. (Keep in mind that LeBron killed the Lakers in the two games last season, so who knows.) The Cavs have better chemistry, but chemistry only gets you so far. Unless LeBron can shake off his regular season struggles against the Lakers and post his usual 29-7-7 line, L.A. should be able to steal a game in Cleveland. The only thing standing in the way is Kobe’s relationship with his teammates. How will he handle adversity? Will the Laker role players come up small when faced with the prospect of failing Kobe on his quest for another title? The Lakers have the personnel (and coaching) advantage, so I think they’ll ultimately triumph, but assuming we do get this matchup, it’s going to be interesting to watch the emotional side of this series.