– Kobe Bryant, via ESPN Los Angeles

Dave McMenamin titled this post, “Bryant Lashes Out At His Teammates,” but I have no problem with anything that Kobe said. It’s 100% true. The Cavs are hungrier and there is no getting around it. It will be very difficult for the Lakers to match that hunger since they just won the title last year. So to beat the Cavs, they have to play tougher and execute better. Pau Gasol looked like a big white bedsheet on a clothesline, flapping around in the wind. And Lamar Odom is not known for his toughness either. Both players have to finish their shots inside and rebound well to offset the Cavs’ hunger (or any other opponent for that matter).

That said, let’s not forget that Kobe missed 19 shots last night and went just 1-5 in the fourth quarter. If he shoots 45-50%, the Lakers probably win that game.

He got fouled a few moments later, made his first free throw and then missed the second.

Update: Just looked on iTunes and the track is called “Forever” by Drake, and it’s on the “More Than a Game” soundtrack. Now it all makes sense…

I’m not a professional lip reader, but after LeBron James took five or six straight jumpers in the fourth quarter (hitting most of them), Shaq came up to him at a timeout and said, “Go to the f**kin’ hole.” On the next possession, LeBron did just that and threw the ball out of bounds. But two plays later with under a minute to play in a tie game, LeBron attacked the glass in secondary transition and gave the Cavs a two point lead.

Kobe Bryant sat for the first seven minutes of the fourth quarter, and when he finally came in, he was ice cold, missing four of his five shots in the final period. Pau Gasol also played weak inside and missed several shots from close range. After LeBron’s driving layup, Gasol had a chance to tie the game with 0:24 to play, but missed both free throws. (He’s an 86% shooter on the season.) Cleveland just showed more toughness down the stretch.

It was an impressive win for the Cavs, who were playing without (arguably) their second best player, Mo Williams, who will be sidelined 4-6 weeks with a separated shoulder.

One thing that struck me as odd: After Gasol missed those free throws, LeBron was on the sideline lip-syncing all of the lyrics to a Eminem song — almost to the point when the ref threw him the ball. I realize he’s just trying to have a good time, but the old schooler in me just shakes his head. A few moments later he went to the line and missed one of his free throws.

Still, it’s hard to complain about a guy who just posted 37-9-5 against the defending champs.

Update: Here’s video of LeBron doing his rap…

Photo from fOTOGLIF

At least three games have been played in each playoff series, so it’s a good time to update the power rankings (where I list each team and their relative chances of advancing to the next round and/or the Finals.)

Click here for the first edition of these rankings.

R.I.P.

16. Pistons
Detroit was unceremoniously swept by the surging Cavs, who won by an average of 15.5 points. This series was never in doubt, and went just like everyone (but the Detroit faithful/demented) thought it would after the Allen Iverson trade blew up in Joe Dumars’ face. Assuming they let AI and Rasheed Wallace walk, the Pistons will have a ton of cap space to work with this summer (or next, if they choose to wait). The core looks to be Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey and Rip Hamilton. Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson appear to be ready to play heavier minutes, but the Pistons still need to add a free agent big man over the next two summers. Carlos Boozer will be this year’s free agent prize, at least as far as bigs go, while Anderson Varejao, Brandon Bass and Drew Gooden are cheaper options. It’s going to be interesting to see how Dumars reshapes this roster — he gave up any chance at a deep playoff run by trading Chauncey Billups away.

DEAD MAN WALKING

15. Jazz
Down 3-1 with two games remaining in L.A., the Jazz are in serious trouble. They desperately needed Game 4 to have a chance and without it, they…um…don’t have (much of) a chance. Utah faces a tumultuous offseason, though they can rest easy that they have one of the few franchise players in the league in Deron Williams. Carlos Boozer plans to test free agency, so the team will need to decide if he’s worth a long-term commitment or if they should turn the reins over to Paul Millsap, who was actually more productive on a per-minute basis. (For the record, if Boozer wants more than $12 million a year, and he probably will, I’d let him walk.)

ON THE ROPES

14. Blazers
13. Spurs
Both teams are down 3-1, but have the luxury of two home games over the next three, so they just need a Game 5 win to put the pressure back on the opposition. Given their incredible playoff experience, San Antonio would seem to have the better chance of pulling out a series win, but neither team is in a good position right now. Tony Parker has been phenomenal, but he and Tim Duncan aren’t getting much help from their supporting cast, while the Blazers are having trouble matching Houston’s mental and physical toughness. It would be a shame if the Rockets go on to fall to the Lakers in the next round because Portland gave L.A. fits in the regular season, and it would be a fun matchup to watch.

STILL ALIVE

12. Hawks
11. Hornets
10. Sixers
9. Bulls
After looking great in Game 1, Atlanta laid an egg in Games 2 and 3, and are now facing an (almost) “must-win” Game 4. The problem is simple: The Hawks are simply not defending the three point line. Miami has made 27 of 49 (55%) treys in the last two games. The Hornets bounced back in Game 3 and got a much-needed win. They face similarly desperate circumstances in Game 4, but I’m not overly optimistic given how the team has failed to click all year long. The Sixers and Bulls head on the road with the series tied. Both teams have shown the ability to win on the road, but they’re still at a disadvantage. I give the Bulls the better chance of springing the upset, but who knows…

LOOKING GOOD

8. Heat
7. Celtics
6. Mavs
Miami shellacked Atlanta the last two games and can put a ton of pressure on the Hawks with a win in Game 4. The Celtics head back to Boston with the series tied, and while they’re nowhere near comfortable, at least they got one win in Chicago. The Mavs have the Spurs on the ropes, but if there’s a team that has the mental toughness to pull out a series win from the jaws of defeat, it’s the Spurs.

ROAD BLOCKS (FOR THE LAKERS & CAVS)

5. Magic
4. Nuggets
3. Rockets
The Magic regained control of the series (and showed great mental fortitude) with a Game 4 win in Philly after a tough, tough loss in Game 3. Hedo Turkoglu has been struggling, but he hit a MONSTER three in the waning seconds to give Orlando the win. The Rockets are making the Blazers look like a bunch of boys out there. They’re playing physical and getting up in Portland’s collective grill. The only worry for Houston is the fact that they only have one more home game in the series. The Nuggets had a golden opportunity to put a nail in the Hornets’ coffin in Game 3, but Carmelo Anthony missed the game-winning bucket with 0:04 to play. It’s unclear how the Hornets’ near-meltdown will affect the rest of the series. (New Orleans was up by eight with 1:33 to play and nearly lost the game.)

DESTINED FOR THE FINALS

2. Cavs
1. Lakers
The Cavs were the first team to get out of the first round. They looked strong and focused against the Pistons. The Lakers are facing a much better team in the Jazz. If Utah were in the East, they’d probably be the second- or third-best team in the conference, so that’s why I still have them ahead of the Cavs. (That, plus the Lakers’ fine play in two meetings with LeBron and Co. this season.) The Lakers need to close out the Jazz on Monday night, as they are likely to get a tough test from the Rockets in the semis and could use the rest.

As I sit here waiting for the (inevitable?) Cavs/Lakers Finals, I started to wonder — how does playoff seeding relate to Finals appearances?

The salary cap was (sort of) implemented during the 1984-85 season to level the playing field, so that’s where we’ll start. Since the ’85 Finals, #1-seeds have accounted for 58% (28 of 48) of the Finals participants. But that trend has changed over the last five years, where #1-seeds only accounted for 20% (2/10) of Finals participants. (This means that from ’85 to ’03, #1-seeds made up 66% of Finals participants.)

Over the last 24 years, teams seeded #4 or higher made the Finals just three times: the ’95 #6-seeded Rockets, the ’99 #8-seeded Knicks and the ’06 #4-seeded Mavs. Only the Rockets managed to win the NBA Championship, so that means that 23 of 24 title winners were seeded #3 or better at the beginning of the playoffs. In fact #3-seeds have won just three titles over the last 24 years (’02, ’04 and ’07), so 83% of title winners start the playoffs as #1- or #2-seeds.

Since 2001, we’ve had the vaunted #1/#1 matchup just once — last season’s Boston/L.A. matchup. From ’85 to ’00, that matchup occurred eight times, or 50% of the time.

What does this all mean? Who knows. Even though the salary cap age has brought more parity to the playoffs, it seems to have only spread the wealth down from the top three or four teams to the top five or six teams. Teams not seeded in the top three are longshots to make the Finals. This is due to the seven-game format of each series. It’s completely feasible that a #4-#8 seed to take a game or two from a top seed, but far less feasible that they can win four out of seven.

These playoffs would have been more interesting had Manu Ginobili, Kevin Garnett and Jameer Nelson stayed healthy. Still, we’re talking about teams that are seeded #3 or higher, so it wouldn’t have changed the fact that really only the top six teams in any given year have a legit shot at the Finals.

After all of that, I think we’re still destined for a Cavs/Lakers matchup in the Finals.

Every Monday, I’ll update these rankings based on the previous week’s events. One game has been played in each of the eight playoff series and we already know a lot more than we did before the weekend.

IN A BAD WAY

16. Pistons
15. Jazz
14. Hornets
These are three teams that have struggled this season against larger expectations and were hoping for a fresh start in the Playoffs, but lost by an average of 20 points. The Jazz seem most capable of putting up a fight, but they’re facing arguably the best team in the league with a superstar that is on a championship mission. Likewise, without Chauncey Billups, the Pistons are in no position to slow the Cavs down. The Hornets are the most perplexing team of this trio — they have arguably the best point guard in the league (Chris Paul) and a great power foward (David West), but they aren’t getting any help. (Of course, it doesn’t really help that West went 4 of 16 from the field in Game 1.) Paul and West have to play brilliantly if the Hornets are to upend the Nuggets.

CAN STILL RIGHT THE SHIP

13. Heat
12. Blazers
11. Spurs
10. Celtics
9. Magic
Orlando, Boston, San Antonio and Portland all lost Game 1 at home. Portland was blown out, which makes one wonder if Brandon Roy and Co. can match Houston’s defensive intensity. The Rockets have snatched home court from the Blazers and are now the clear favorite to win the series.

The Spurs look old and out of sorts — but the problem is their defense. Tony Parker vastly outplayed Jason Kidd, and San Antonio got 40 points from Michael Finley, Roger Mason and Drew Gooden. Normally, that would be enough. But the Spurs gave up 105 points to the Mavs, allowing Dallas to shoot almost 54% from the field. That’s not championship defense, folks. The Mavs got great play from J.J. Barea (13 points) and Brandon Bass (14 points), who made the difference off the Dallas bench.

The Magic and the Celtics seem like they can turn their respective series around, but Boston looks to be in more trouble. Without KG, the upstart Bulls can smell blood, and no offense to Paul Pierce, but Chicago might have the best player in the series in probable ROY Derrick Rose. He certainly played that way in Game 1, but it’s a long series.

As for the Heat, Dwyane Wade and Co. look overmatched against a balanced Hawks team. Atlanta beat the Celtics three times at home in their first round series last year, so they should be able to ride home court advantage to the semis.

LOOKING GOOD

8. Sixers
7. Mavs
6. Bulls
Here are three teams that won Game 1 on the road. The winner of the first game goes on to win 79% of all seven-game series, so there’s a good chance that we’ll see at least two of these teams in the next round. The Sixers seem to be more smoke-and-mirrors than good basketball, but they have a young and athletic lineup that can run on the Magic, who miss Jameer Nelson more than they’d like to admit. The Mavs and Bulls are taking advantage of the injuries to Manu Ginobili and KG, respectively.

ROAD BLOCKS

5. Hawks
4. Rockets
3. Nuggets
These are the three teams that look to be the biggest obstacles standing in the way of a Cavs/Lakers matchup in the Finals. Right now, it looks like L.A. has the tougher road with potential series against Houston and Denver looming. Both teams are playing well, but don’t look to have the talent to keep up with the Lakers. Meanwhile, with Nelson and KG sidelined, and the Magic and Celtics dropping Game 1s at home, there isn’t much standing between the Cavs and the Finals. They may get their toughest test in the semis if the Hawks advance. Atlanta gave Boston all they could handle last year and one could argue that the ’08 Celtics were better than the ’09 Cavs, at least from a balance standpoint.

DESTINED FOR THE FINALS

2. Cavs
1. Lakers
Given their advantage in the two regular season matchups, I’m sticking with the Lakers until someone changes my mind. L.A. looks to have the tougher road, but that may mean that they’ll be more mentally prepared if these two teams meet in the Finals. It’s going to be interesting to see if Houston and/or Denver can push the Lakers to six or seven games, or if anyone in the East can challenge LeBron and the Cavs.

Sure, with its seven-game format, the NBA Playoffs aren’t quite as consistently dramatic as March Madness, but there are a number of compelling storylines as we head into this year’s postseason. Will KG return in time to help the Celtics try to repeat? Will LeBron and the Cavs ride home court advantage to the Finals? Can Chris Paul and the Hornets put a less-than-stellar regular season behind them and make a run? Can Kobe finally win a title without Shaq?

The Playoffs start on Saturday, and looking at the matchups, I think I have a pretty good idea how things will play out. Granted, I’m likely to make a few mistakes along the way, but that’s part of the fun, right?

#1 Cavaliers vs. #8 Pistons
Let’s see – the Pistons limped into the playoffs, going 8-9 in March and 3-5 in April. Earlier in the season, they traded away arguably their best player (Chauncey Billups) and the guy they got in return (Allen Iverson) is (rumored to be) spending his time getting banned from the local casinos. If Detroit had held onto Billups, maybe they’d be able to make this a series, but without him, they’re floundering. I hope Joe Dumars has fun with that cap space!

#4 Hawks vs. #5 Heat
Here’s a first round battle between two teams that don’t have a legitimate chance of making the Finals. If the NBA were to adopt a single-elimination format (or even three-game series across the board), maybe….maybe…one of these teams could get hot and make a run. As it stands, the winner will have the right to face a determined Cavs team in the second round. Not that it matters, but I’m going with the Hawks here. They have home court advantage, have won three of four against the Heat this season and are simply a better team. Hats off to Dwyane Wade for willing the Heat this far, but I don’t think we’re going to see a LeBron/D-Wade matchup in the second round. (Not unless Jermaine O’Neal discovers the Fountain of Youth by this weekend.)

#2 Celtics vs. #7 Bulls
Don’t look now, but the Bulls are (kind of) hot. They’ve won 12 of their last 16 games, including home wins against Boston and New Orleans. Normally, I’d take the C’s and not think twice, but with Kevin Garnett out for the foreseeable future, this is suddenly an interesting series. Boston is 18-7 without Garnett (8-5 against playoff teams), so the Celtics are still a solid team without their star forward. I think home court should be enough to allow Boston to move on, but don’t be surprised if Chicago springs the upset.

#3 Magic vs. #6 Sixers
The Sixers were 12-15 with Elton Brand and 29-26 without him. Ouch. Philly had lost six straight games before beating a Cavs team that was resting its starters. The Magic swept the season series. Despite the Orlando’s mediocre play in April, the Magic should advance.

#1 Lakers vs. #8 Jazz
Utah gave L.A. some problems last year, taking the Lakers to six games. Moreover, every game in the series was competitive. The Jazz have the tools to cause headaches for the Lakers, but Utah is 2-7 in its last nine, so I don’t see an upset here.

#4 Trail Blazers vs. #5 Rockets
Houston is 16-7 in March and April, but just 7-6 against playoff teams. Portland is 18-6 (and 6-6) over the same span. What does this tell us? Not much, but I already counted up the wins so I didn’t want the work to go to waste. Something tells me that the Blazers are going to have a tough time matching Ron Artest’s mental toughness, but I’m rooting for a Portland win so they can move on and face the Lakers (whom they’ve beaten twice in the last 39 days). The Blazers have home court, so let’s hope that’s enough.

#2 Nuggets vs. #7 Hornets
At the start of the season, I thought these seeds would be reversed. I can’t believe how well Denver has played since Chauncey Billups’ arrival (and without Marcus Camby). New Orleans limped into the playoffs (going 3-6 in April) and they just don’t look like the same team that took San Antonio to seven games in last year’s Western Conference Semifinals. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won 14 of their last 17 and have home court advantage. It’s going to be a great battle at point guard between Billups and Chris Paul, but Denver is just playing better ball right now. I’m going with the Nuggets, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Hornets pulled the upset.

#3 Spurs vs. #6 Mavericks
With Manu Ginobili sidelined, the Mavs have a real shot to upset the Spurs, but I don’t think Jason Kidd can handle Tony Parker’s quickness. TP is averaging 31.3 points (on 52% shooting) and 7.3 assists his four regular season games against Dallas. Parker should go nuts, so if Tim Duncan’s knees hold up, the Spurs will advance, and there will be several shots of Mark Cuban looking unhappy in the stands. (Anyone want to pool some money together and pay for Devin Harris to sit in the same section? That would be awesome.)

#1 Cavaliers vs. #4 Hawks
Atlanta does have the personnel to give the Cavs some problems, but LeBron seems destined for a Finals appearance this season and the Hawks have really struggled to slow him down in the two team’s four meetings this season. (Cleveland is 3-1 in those games.) Mo Williams averaged 23.3 points and shot almost 54% against the Hawks this season, and with the way LeBron is playing defense right now, I don’t see Joe Johnson carrying the Hawks to more than a couple of wins. Cavs advance.

#2 Celtics vs. #3 Magic
Anyone who followed my March Madness picks knows that I’m not optimistic when it comes to pre-tournament injuries. (Damn you, Ty Lawson!) Such is the case with KG’s knees – according to Doc Rivers, he may not be able to play again this postseason, and if he’s not at or near 100%, the Magic have the advantage in this series. It’s true that Orlando is without Jameer Nelson, but Rafer Alston has been an adequate replacement. I’d feel a lot better picking this upset if the Magic had played better down the stretch, but let’s assume that they lost focus late in the season with virtually nothing on the line. Orlando pulls the upset.

#1 Lakers vs. #4 Trail Blazers
The Lakers won the first two meetings (in L.A.) by an average of 17 points, but the Blazers won the last two in Portland by 17 (in March) and by eight (in April). The Lakers have now lost eight straight at the Rose Garden, but with home court advantage, they don’t have to win in Portland. I expect the young Blazers to put up a fight, but ultimately lose this series in six or seven. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol provide a great one-two punch, but the Lakers will need some production out of Derek Fisher or Jordan Farmar somewhere along the line to reach the Finals. Given the state of the teams in the other side of the West bracket, the Blazers (or even the Rockets, if they advance) could give the Lakers their toughest conference test. This will be good experience for the young Blazers who look poised to dominate the West in the not-too-distant future.

#2 Nuggets vs. #3 Spurs
Ugh. I’m not a believer in the Nuggets, and I’m not optimistic about the Spurs given Manu Ginobili’s absence and Tim Duncan’s knees. The Nuggets have home-court advantage in this series thanks to a 2-1 regular season record against the Spurs. Tony Parker didn’t play in either of the Spurs’ losses, and he’s going to have to come up huge for the Spurs to advance. Without Ginobili, the Spurs are in a bad way, but I’d feel worse about picking Denver to advance to the Western Conference Finals, so San Antonio it is.

#1 Cavaliers vs. #3 Magic
With Jameer Nelson in the lineup, the Magic would have had a shot, but they don’t have anyone to contain LeBron on the wing. James averaged 30.7 points in three games against Orlando, but didn’t shoot all that well (43%). Mo Williams has really struggled against the Magic, shooting 38% from the field and scoring just 14.3 ppg. The Magic were 2-1 against the Cavs this season, but both wins were at home. Orlando will want to make this game a grind, but LeBron should be able to get to the line enough to give the Cavs the advantage in the clutch. Given Orlando’s struggles down the stretch, it will be an accomplishment to get this far, so let’s hope that Stan Van Gundy doesn’t give himself another ulcer on the sideline.

#1 Lakers vs. #3 Spurs
The Spurs couldn’t beat the Lakers last year with Ginobili in the lineup and Andrew Bynum sidelined, so I don’t see them beating L.A. without Ginobili and with Bynum back and looking pretty good. Nothing to see here. Lakers advance.

#1 Cavaliers vs. #1 Lakers
With KG hobbled and the C’s looking vulnerable, this is the matchup that everyone wants to see. Kobe wants a Shaq-less title so badly, he can taste it. (No jokes about Shaq’s freestyle rap, please.) It has been his singular focus for the last few seasons, and he can sense that the window is closing. His Lakers fell to the Celtics in last year’s Finals in part because Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen had that same focus, while the rest of the Lakers simply did not. The Cavs should have an advantage at point guard with Mo Williams who is quicker than Fisher and more experienced (and more confident) than Farmar. The Lakers can throw Kobe and Trevor Ariza at LeBron on the defensive end, and have an advantage inside with Gasol and Bynum (versus Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao). The Lakers swept the season series, and LeBron shot a combined 14 for 45 (31%) in the two games, so it looks like the Lakers might have his number from a defensive standpoint. (Keep in mind that LeBron killed the Lakers in the two games last season, so who knows.) The Cavs have better chemistry, but chemistry only gets you so far. Unless LeBron can shake off his regular season struggles against the Lakers and post his usual 29-7-7 line, L.A. should be able to steal a game in Cleveland. The only thing standing in the way is Kobe’s relationship with his teammates. How will he handle adversity? Will the Laker role players come up small when faced with the prospect of failing Kobe on his quest for another title? The Lakers have the personnel (and coaching) advantage, so I think they’ll ultimately triumph, but assuming we do get this matchup, it’s going to be interesting to watch the emotional side of this series.