At least three games have been played in each playoff series, so it’s a good time to update the power rankings (where I list each team and their relative chances of advancing to the next round and/or the Finals.)

Click here for the first edition of these rankings.

R.I.P.

16. Pistons
Detroit was unceremoniously swept by the surging Cavs, who won by an average of 15.5 points. This series was never in doubt, and went just like everyone (but the Detroit faithful/demented) thought it would after the Allen Iverson trade blew up in Joe Dumars’ face. Assuming they let AI and Rasheed Wallace walk, the Pistons will have a ton of cap space to work with this summer (or next, if they choose to wait). The core looks to be Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey and Rip Hamilton. Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson appear to be ready to play heavier minutes, but the Pistons still need to add a free agent big man over the next two summers. Carlos Boozer will be this year’s free agent prize, at least as far as bigs go, while Anderson Varejao, Brandon Bass and Drew Gooden are cheaper options. It’s going to be interesting to see how Dumars reshapes this roster — he gave up any chance at a deep playoff run by trading Chauncey Billups away.

DEAD MAN WALKING

15. Jazz
Down 3-1 with two games remaining in L.A., the Jazz are in serious trouble. They desperately needed Game 4 to have a chance and without it, they…um…don’t have (much of) a chance. Utah faces a tumultuous offseason, though they can rest easy that they have one of the few franchise players in the league in Deron Williams. Carlos Boozer plans to test free agency, so the team will need to decide if he’s worth a long-term commitment or if they should turn the reins over to Paul Millsap, who was actually more productive on a per-minute basis. (For the record, if Boozer wants more than $12 million a year, and he probably will, I’d let him walk.)

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As I sit here waiting for the (inevitable?) Cavs/Lakers Finals, I started to wonder — how does playoff seeding relate to Finals appearances?

The salary cap was (sort of) implemented during the 1984-85 season to level the playing field, so that’s where we’ll start. Since the ‘85 Finals, #1-seeds have accounted for 58% (28 of 48) of the Finals participants. But that trend has changed over the last five years, where #1-seeds only accounted for 20% (2/10) of Finals participants. (This means that from ‘85 to ‘03, #1-seeds made up 66% of Finals participants.)

Over the last 24 years, teams seeded #4 or higher made the Finals just three times: the ‘95 #6-seeded Rockets, the ‘99 #8-seeded Knicks and the ‘06 #4-seeded Mavs. Only the Rockets managed to win the NBA Championship, so that means that 23 of 24 title winners were seeded #3 or better at the beginning of the playoffs. In fact #3-seeds have won just three titles over the last 24 years (’02, ‘04 and ‘07), so 83% of title winners start the playoffs as #1- or #2-seeds.

Since 2001, we’ve had the vaunted #1/#1 matchup just once — last season’s Boston/L.A. matchup. From ‘85 to ‘00, that matchup occurred eight times, or 50% of the time.

What does this all mean? Who knows. Even though the salary cap age has brought more parity to the playoffs, it seems to have only spread the wealth down from the top three or four teams to the top five or six teams. Teams not seeded in the top three are longshots to make the Finals. This is due to the seven-game format of each series. It’s completely feasible that a #4-#8 seed to take a game or two from a top seed, but far less feasible that they can win four out of seven.

These playoffs would have been more interesting had Manu Ginobili, Kevin Garnett and Jameer Nelson stayed healthy. Still, we’re talking about teams that are seeded #3 or higher, so it wouldn’t have changed the fact that really only the top six teams in any given year have a legit shot at the Finals.

After all of that, I think we’re still destined for a Cavs/Lakers matchup in the Finals.

Every Monday, I’ll update these rankings based on the previous week’s events. One game has been played in each of the eight playoff series and we already know a lot more than we did before the weekend.

IN A BAD WAY

16. Pistons
15. Jazz
14. Hornets
These are three teams that have struggled this season against larger expectations and were hoping for a fresh start in the Playoffs, but lost by an average of 20 points. The Jazz seem most capable of putting up a fight, but they’re facing arguably the best team in the league with a superstar that is on a championship mission. Likewise, without Chauncey Billups, the Pistons are in no position to slow the Cavs down. The Hornets are the most perplexing team of this trio — they have arguably the best point guard in the league (Chris Paul) and a great power foward (David West), but they aren’t getting any help. (Of course, it doesn’t really help that West went 4 of 16 from the field in Game 1.) Paul and West have to play brilliantly if the Hornets are to upend the Nuggets.

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Sure, with its seven-game format, the NBA Playoffs aren’t quite as consistently dramatic as March Madness, but there are a number of compelling storylines as we head into this year’s postseason. Will KG return in time to help the Celtics try to repeat? Will LeBron and the Cavs ride home court advantage to the Finals? Can Chris Paul and the Hornets put a less-than-stellar regular season behind them and make a run? Can Kobe finally win a title without Shaq?

The Playoffs start on Saturday, and looking at the matchups, I think I have a pretty good idea how things will play out. Granted, I’m likely to make a few mistakes along the way, but that’s part of the fun, right?

#1 Cavaliers vs. #8 Pistons
Let’s see – the Pistons limped into the playoffs, going 8-9 in March and 3-5 in April. Earlier in the season, they traded away arguably their best player (Chauncey Billups) and the guy they got in return (Allen Iverson) is (rumored to be) spending his time getting banned from the local casinos. If Detroit had held onto Billups, maybe they’d be able to make this a series, but without him, they’re floundering. I hope Joe Dumars has fun with that cap space!

#4 Hawks vs. #5 Heat
Here’s a first round battle between two teams that don’t have a legitimate chance of making the Finals. If the NBA were to adopt a single-elimination format (or even three-game series across the board), maybe….maybe…one of these teams could get hot and make a run. As it stands, the winner will have the right to face a determined Cavs team in the second round. Not that it matters, but I’m going with the Hawks here. They have home court advantage, have won three of four against the Heat this season and are simply a better team. Hats off to Dwyane Wade for willing the Heat this far, but I don’t think we’re going to see a LeBron/D-Wade matchup in the second round. (Not unless Jermaine O’Neal discovers the Fountain of Youth by this weekend.)

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The Spurs are going to have a tough time winning their fourth title in seven years without their star wing.

The stiffness Spurs guard Manu Ginobili felt in his right ankle during Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers turned out to portend the worst possible news for the star guard and the Spurs: A stress fracture that will cost him the remainder of the season, and the playoffs.

Ginobili had returned to game action March 25 in Atlanta after missing 19 games with a stress reaction in his right distal fibula. Sunday’s game was his sixth since returning to the lineup, and followed three games in which he had totaled 50 points. After scoring 16 in a victory in Indianapolis on Friday, Ginobili had reported that he felt “super.”

When the ankle stiffened Sunday, he sought advice from the team’s athletic training and conditioning staff, and was sent back to San Antonio for a CT scan and MRI. The results of tests conducted Monday morning showed the stress fracture, and the determination that the team’s starting shooting guard would miss the remainder of the season.

Laker fans will be dancing in the street when they hear this news. When healthy, the Spurs posed the biggest threat to L.A.’s title hopes. With Ginobili out and Kevin Garnett hobbled, it’s looking more and more like we’re destined for a Cavs/Lakers Finals.