Last year, it was easy to view the Cincinnati Bengals as a joke. They were a mess on the field and an embarrassment off it. Their star player couldn’t stay healthy, their running back was a castoff from Chicago, one of their star receivers couldn’t match his off-field antics with quality on-field production and their head coach had no idea how to hold everything together.

But it’s amazing how one offseason can change everything. Carson Palmer is healthy again and playing extremely well, Cedric Benson has revived his career, Chad Ochocinco is still a circus act (but a productive circus act), and Marvin Lewis’ name keeps coming up as a coach of the year candidate.

The Bengals beat the Steelers 18-12 on Sunday and they didn’t use smoke and mirrors to do it. They held Rashard Mendenhall to 36 yards on 13 carries by dominating the line of scrimmage and forcing Ben Roethlisberger to beat them through the air. But Big Ben couldn’t and Cincinnati put the clamps on Pittsburgh’s offense inside the red zone and made the Steelers settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

All in all, it was a complete effort by the best team in the AFC North. The Steelers and Ravens have often been highly regarded as the most physical teams in the division and the Bengals outplayed both of them not once, but twice this year. As long as Palmer and Benson (he left today’s game in the third quarter due to a hip injury) can stay healthy and the defense continues to play well, there’s no reason to think that the Bengals can’t make a deep run in the postseason.

The Bengals have finally figured out that chemistry can play a huge role in helping a team win. Gone are the days where the inmates run the asylum in Cincinnati; winning has a way of forcing players to shut up and fall in line.

Thanks to Kyle Orton’s terrific Monday night performance against Pittsburgh and Green Bay’s outstanding effort in Tampa, I took one on the chin last week to go 2-3. Law of averages says I get things right this week, right? Right?!

Here are my top four plays for Sunday.

Bengals (6-2) at Steelers (6-2), 1:00PM ET
I don’t see the Bengals sweeping the Steelers this season, but Cincinnati isn’t getting enough respect. Their defense is legit and they have the secondary to matchup with a team like the Steelers that likes to put the ball in the air. Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco have played well this season and should be able to keep the Bengals in the game. For as good as the Steelers are and as much as they’ll get up for a division rival like the Bengals who have already beaten them once this season, Pittsburgh is coming off a short week after earning an emotional win in Denver. In the end, I think the Steelers defense won’t wilt like they did in the fourth quarter of the first contest, but this game is going to be closer than the odds would indicate.
Odds: Steelers –7.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Bengals 16.

Saints (8-0) at Rams (1-7), 1:00PM ET
The Saints haven’t covered in two weeks as double-digit favorites and while some bettors might think now is the perfect time to back a Rams team coming off a bye and getting 13.5 points at home, I would caution them. The Falcons and Panthers played the Saints tough because they’re familiar with New Orleans and divisional games are always closer than people think. It’s about time Drew Brees touches another opponent up for three or four scores and this is the perfect weekend to do going against a suspect St. Louis secondary. Actually, the Rams defense isn’t as bad as many think and they might be able to hang with New Orleans in the first half. But the Rams’ offense is putrid and the Saints’ defense has preyed on their opponents’ mistakes all season. I fully expect Sean Payton’s team to romp and I’ll gladly eat the chalk.
Odds: Saints –13.5.
Prediction: Saints 37, Rams 10.

Falcons (5-3) at Panthers (3-5), 1:00PM ET
This has “trap” written all over it. The Falcons are clearly the better team, yet find themselves as only 1.5-point favorites entering this game. Even though the Falcons got off the schnide last week by beating a bad Washington team, Matt Ryan hasn’t played particular well in over a month and Carolina has one of the better defensive backfields in the league. If the Panthers can contain Michael Turner (which could be tough given that linebacker Thomas Davis was lost after he suffered a season-ending injury last week), then they’ll have a shot to win outright. Atlanta’s run defense has been shaky this year and as long as DeAngelo Williams plays (he’ll be a game time decision), he and Jonathan Stewart should control this game on the ground. If Williams is out, then throw my pick out because I just don’t think the Panthers have enough to beat a Falcons team that has the inside track of earning a Wild Card spot in the NFC.
Odds: Falcons –1.5.
Prediction: Panthers (with Williams) 24, Falcons 20…Falcons 27, Panthers 17 (without Williams).

Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (4-4), 4:15PM ET
I’ll cut to the chase: The Packers have zero chance of winning this game if they can’t figure out how to protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers. And based on how the offensive line has looked so far, I doubt they’ll figure things out before Dallas brings its highly effective pass rush to Lambeau Field on Sunday. The Cowboys should control this game in the trenches and wear down Green Bay on both sides of the ball. I fully expect the Packers to give a better defensive effort than they did last week in Tampa, but DeMarcus Ware should feast on Rodgers, who rarely has time to blink in the pocket, nevertheless complete a pass. Assuming Wade Phillips’ bunch doesn’t play down to their competition this weekend, then the ‘Boys should earn another road win. (That said, beware that the Cowboys just won a huge game in Philadelphia last week, so this might be a letdown game for them.)
Odds: Cowboys –3.
Prediction: Cowboys 23, Packers 17.

Photo from fOTOGLIF
]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/13/nfl-pick-predictions-week-10/feed/ 6 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/08/2009-afc-north-champion%e2%80%a6bengals/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/08/2009-afc-north-champion%e2%80%a6bengals/#comments Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:54:22 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=28556

With their impressive 17-7 win over the Ravens on Sunday, the Bengals have set themselves up to win the AFC North.

Yeah, yeah I know – the Steelers have yet to play this week and they could have an identical record as Cincinnati if they win Monday night in Denver. They also host the Bengals next week.

But don’t forget that Cincy has already beaten Pittsburgh once this year and the Steelers will be coming off a short week of rest after playing what should be a very physical game against the Broncos. Plus, after playing in Pittsburgh next week, the Bengals take on well-known powerhouses in the Raiders, Browns and Lions, and also have the Chiefs in Week 16. If they can beat the Steelers next week, they’re set up for an 11 or 12-win season.

The Bengals owe most of their success to Cedric Benson and an underrated defense. Benson rushed 34 times for 117 yards and a touchdown in the win over Baltimore and is now on pace for 1,674 yards and 12 scores. He has really found himself in Cincinnati after stealing paychecks in Chicago.

The defense has been exceptional as well. To hold a potent Baltimore offense to only seven points is quite an accomplishment and the job Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall did on the Ravens’ receivers was outstanding. Joe Flacco had no one to throw to because his receivers couldn’t get open and he wound up throwing two interceptions. All in all, it was an impressive performance by a Bengals team that has its sights on a division title.

On the other side, this was a punch to the gut for the Ravens, who thought they had ironed out some issues with their win over the Broncos last Sunday. But they ran into a well-rested, well-prepared Cincinnati team that clearly has their number this season.

If the Houston Texans could ever find some consistency from week-to-week, there’s no doubt they would be a playoff team. But one week they’re losing to the Jaguars at home and the next they’re beating a red-hot Bengals team in Cincinnati.

Matt Schaub dissected the Bengals for 392 yards and four touchdowns in Houston’s 28-17 victory on Sunday. It might have been the best performance of his career, as he used multiple receivers and was incredibly patient while waiting for receivers to come out of their breaks. He was also extremely accurate, hooking up with Andre Johnson eight times for 135 yards, including once for 59 yards.

The Texans have a good enough offense to hang with any opponent in the league. But it will be the play of their defense that decides whether or not they’ll make the playoffs. Today their defense was excellent, limiting the Bengals to only 46 yards on the ground and forcing three turnovers. But next week, who knows?

One factor that could help Houston down the stretch defensively is the emerging play of rookie Brian Cushing. He has shown the ability to shed blockers, hang with backs and receivers in coverage and has displayed a knack for making the big play. He was outstanding on Sunday, intercepting Carson Palmer and forcing two fumbles. Houston has found a special player in this year’s first round pick.

Cincinnati suffered today when defensive end Antwaan Odom left the game with an injury. The Bengals were also without Domata Peko, who has been their best run-stuffer. Without those two defenders, Schaub, Steve Slaton and Chris Brown were able to move the chains with consistency and the Bengals were in catch up mode the entire game outside of when they added a late field goal to take a 17-14 lead into halftime.

This loss might wind up being good for the Bengals. They may have started to read their own press clippings after beating the Ravens in Baltimore last week and Marvin Lewis can use this loss to remind his team that there are 16 games in a NFL season.

With their 17-14 come-from-behind victory over the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday, questioning whether or not the Bengals are for real is over.

They’re for real, they’re not pretenders, they’re going to challenge for a playoff spot in the AFC.

How the Bengals arrived at 4-1 is no fluke. In fact, the only fluke so far this season was their opening week loss to the Broncos because otherwise this team would be undefeated. They’ve already defeated the Packers in Green Bay, the defending champion Steelers at home and the Ravens in Baltimore. It’s not like they’ve racked up wins against below average teams at home – they’ve won in hostile environments against postseason contenders.

Granted, the Ravens shot themselves in the foot on Sunday with two huge penalties. Chris Carr’s illegal contact penalty was bad, but the unnecessary roughness call against Ray Lewis was a killer as it wiped out a third-and-16 incompletion by Carson Palmer.

But give the Bengals credit – they held Baltimore’s potent offense to 257 total yards, including only 82 on the ground. Regular readers know I’ve described Cincinnati’s defense as “underrated” for the past couple weeks but I may have been wrong. They’ve not just underrated, but they’re also a damn good unit. They picked off Joe Flacco twice today and held him to under 200 passing yards (186 to be exact).

It’s still early, but again, it’s time to stop wondering if this Bengals team can hang with the elite competition in the AFC. Palmer is healthy, the defense has been solid, Cedric Benson (120 yards, 1 TD) has been great and the offensive line has played better than expected. They’re going to challenge for a playoff spot at this rate.

The Browns did the improbable in the fourth quarter by blocking an extra point following a Chad Ochocinco 2-yard touchdown pass to force overtime. Then they really did the improbable by allowing a gimpy Carson Palmer to scramble 15 yards in the extra period to set up Shayne Graham’s game-winning 31-yard field goal with four seconds remaining.

Did I mention that Palmer’s scramble was on fourth down? Had they stopped the Bengals on that play, Mangini and the Browns were looking at a tie at the very least, which certainly would have been better than suffering their fourth consecutive loss.

The good thing for Cleveland is that they fought hard after trailing Cincinnati 14-7 early in the first half. They also forced two key turnovers and the offense looked more efficient with Anderson under center than they did with Brady Quinn in previous weeks. Jerome Harrison rushed for 121 yards on 29 carries, while rookie receiver Mohamed Massaquoi caught eight passes for 148 yards.

But moral victories don’t really count when you’re 0-4. Mangini deserves time to build the roster he wants, but in the meantime he still needs to produce a victory or two because the Cleveland faithful has suffered enough. A win today would have given Mangini a little support.

Hell, a tie would have done the same thing.

Let this sink in for a second: The defending champions are 1-2.

The Steelers were a 4th and 10 stop away from being 2-1 when they were up 20-15 with only 36 seconds remaining in Cincinnati on Sunday. But Bengals’ QB Carson Palmer avoided a sack and found Brian Leonard on an 11-yard completion to set Cincinnati up with a 1st and 4 from the Pittsburgh 4-yard line. Two plays later, Palmer found Andre Caldwell on a four-yard touchdown pass to put the Bengals up for good 23-20.

The theme continues for the Steelers. While they were able to rush for 102 yards, they only managed 3.6 YPC and essentially weren’t that effective. When they were leading 20-9 late in the third quarter, they couldn’t put Cincinnati away because they couldn’t milk the clock.

Pittsburgh won a Super Bowl last year despite the lack of a running game, but teams can’t consistently win when they can’t run the football. Some are going to look at the stat sheet and think that the Steelers were effective on the ground because they rushed for over 100 yards. But that simply wasn’t the case and it shows because the Bengals were able to score two fourth quarter touchdowns to earn the victory.

Willie Parker had a decent game, but when it was time for the Steelers to grind out the clock in the second half, he was much less effective. That caused Pittsburgh’s defense to be on the field too long in the fourth and Cincinnati capitalized.

But let’s give credit where credit is due – the Bengals’ deserved the victory. They came up with a huge play in the third quarter when a miscommunication between Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes led to a Jonathan Joseph 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. They hung around and hung around, waited for its moment to seize a win and then did so.

What’s amazing is that the Bengals could be 3-0 if it weren’t for Brandon Stokley’s fluke touchdown reception in Week 1. What’s even more amazing is that Cincinnati could be 3-0 and would have wins over the Packers (in Green Bay no less) and the Steelers.

There’s something about this Bengals team. They have an underrated defense, a healthy Palmer, a rejuvenated Cedric Benson and are finally playing inspired under Marvin Lewis.