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Butler-Howard swap in the works?

ESPN is reporting that there is new life to the Dallas/Washington trade that would be centered around Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and Josh Howard.

Talks between the teams had stalled in the past week, partly because of Washington’s insistence that the Mavericks take guard DeShawn Stevenson in any Butler deal, but the potential for acquiring two front-line players — since Butler and Haywood would immediately become key rotation players for the Mavs — has renewed Dallas’ interest.

Sources told ESPN.com that the teams’ negotiations only turned more serious Friday on a deal that would send Josh Howard, Drew Gooden and some smaller cap-friendly contracts to Washington for Butler, Haywood and Stevenson.

Well, color me confused. Earlier, we discussed the possibility of the Wizards sending Butler and Antawn Jamison to the Celtics for Ray Allen and his expiring contract, and now this rumor resurfaces.

To me, if the Wizards are rebuilding, why trade Butler for Howard? He’s 29 — the same age as Butler — and hasn’t been the player this year as he has in years past. He has a team option for next season, so presumably they’d let him walk, because if you can’t build around Butler then you certainly can’t build around Howard.

The right way to start a rebuilding process is to get some good young talent or first round draft picks when trading away stars. Otherwise, it’s just a salary dump. This deal might be appealing to the Wizards because they can try to sell their season ticket holders on the fact that, talent-wise, the trade was pretty even. But really, they’re just treading water, if that.

Like I said, color me confused.


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Butler, Jamison for Ray-Ray?

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports says that the Wizards and Celtics are discussing a blockbuster deal.

In a dramatic move that would resuscitate their fading championship hopes, the Boston Celtics are discussing a deal with the Washington Wizards for forwards Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, league sources told Yahoo! Sports on Friday.

The proposed deal would send the expiring contracts of Ray Allen, Brian Scalabrine and J.R. Giddens to the Wizards, a move that would signal the start of Washington’s rebuilding process.

The trade isn’t imminent, but talks have progressed and Celtics GM Danny Ainge has positioned his organization to make one of the boldest trade deadline moves in years. For the Celtics, ownership would have to agree to take on an additional $24 million in salary next season between Jamison and Butler. Jamison makes more than $15 million in 2011-12, but most owners are discounting those salaries because of an assumption that there will be a labor lockout and some, if not all, of that money will never be paid to the players.

For his part, Celtics GM Danny Ainge denies the rumors:

Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said Friday he has not discussed trades involving the Charlotte Bobcats or Washington Wizards.

“There is no truth to either one of those,” Ainge said. “I have had conversations with a lot of teams but those have never been discussed. There are a lot of things I would like to do but I don’t feel a need to do something. I am always looking to upgrade the team, if possible.”

Have you ever heard a GM confirm a trade rumor? They always deny, deny, deny. So there’s no telling if there’s any truth to it, though Wojnarowski is a respected NBA writer.

Obviously, this trade would be a coup for the Celtics in terms of talent. Ray Allen isn’t playing horribly (16-3-3, 45% shooting), but he’s shooting a career-low 34% from long range and is 34 years old. Caron Butler (29) and Antawn Jamison (33) are both younger, and are both All-Star caliber players. Wojnarowski mentioned that the contracts are a concern (especially Jamison’s), but if the two players gelled in the Celtics’ lineup, it would push the franchise back into serious title contention.

However, it would be difficult to get the C’s five best players on the court. Paul Pierce and Caron Butler can play on the wings, but for Jamison to play PF, that means Kevin Garnett would play center. Against certain teams (say, Atlanta), this wouldn’t be a problem, but KG would get beat up down low against Shaq and Dwight Howard. Offensively, this lineup would allow the C’s to spread the floor and post up Pierce, Jamison and Butler in favorable matchups.

For Washington, this trade would confirm what we all already know — the Wizards are rebuilding. If I were running things, I’d hold onto Butler (since his contract is affordable) or at least wait for someone to offer a good young piece. The deal, as outlined, is simply a salary dump. The Wizards would be giving Jamison and Butler away for cap flexibility. With this trade, the Wizards would have approximately $20 million in cap space this summer, and that assumes Gilbert Arenas is still on the payroll.


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Bucks interested in Troy Murphy

The Milwaukee Bucks are hovering around the #8 spot in the East and can probably make the postseason with their current roster. But according to Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal-Times, they’re eyeing Troy Murphy.

The Bucks and Pacers have bandied about several players in exchange for the 6-foot-11 Murphy, who is averaging 14 points and 9.9 rebounds this season. One of those players is Ersan Ilyasova.

The Pacers want Ilyasova, but the Bucks don’t want to give him up. Ilyasova is only 22, capable of playing both forward positions and has flashed signs of becoming a big-time scorer.

While he is averaging a modest 10.5 points and 6.3 rebounds, Ilyasova has had five 20-plus games this season, including 25 against the New York and 24 against Portland and the Los Angeles Lakers.

He also had 20-point outing against Orlando and San Antonio, two of the best teams in the NBA.

The Bucks would be wise to hold onto Ilyasova, unless they can get more of an impact player than Murphy. The Bucks aren’t the Cavs; they’re not looking for one missing piece to the championship puzzle. They’re building for the future, and Ilyasova could be part of that future. He can play either forward position, can hit the three (36%), is a pretty good defender and rebounds almost as well as Murphy (rebound rate: 17.1 to 15.3). Plus, he’s only 22, so he has room to grow.

Milwaukee should be looking to upgrade at shooting guard and small forward. Caron Butler would be a good fit, but the Bucks don’t want to make the same mistake they did with Richard Jefferson. Unlike Jefferson, Butler’s contract isn’t a cap killer. Unfortunately, the Bucks don’t have the pieces to acquire Butler unless the Wizards are willing to give him up for expiring contracts and a mid-first round pick. I’m not even sure I’d include Ilyasova in a deal for Butler as I think he (Ilyasova) could be a starter on a good playoff team in a couple of years.

Knicks to acquire T-Mac?

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports writes that the Knicks are discussing a deal that would bring Tracy McGrady to the Big Apple.

The centerpieces of the trade would include the Washington Wizards shipping forward Caron Butler and center Brendan Haywood to the Rockets. The Knicks would send Al Harrington to the Wizards. For the Wizards’ part, they would still need another player, as well as a draft pick and cash to make this a workable scenario, sources said.

Let’s look at this proposed trade from the perspective of all three teams.

The Houston Rockets would be the big winner because they’d get Caron Butler and possibly Brendan Haywood. Haywood’s deal is expiring while Butler has one more affordable year ($10.6 million) on his contract. They’d essentially get an All-Star caliber player and a good defensive center for the price of a player that they’ve banished from their team (McGrady).

The New York Knicks would acquire T-Mac, who is a mystery at this point in his career. Can he still play? No one really knows. Since his contract is worth $22 million, just giving up Al Harrington ($10.0 M) isn’t going to be enough. They have a number of players with expiring contracts that they could include (Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic, Chris Duhon, Nate Robinson), but they would really like to unload Jared Jeffries, who has another year remaining on his deal. John Hollinger puts the Knicks’ playoff chances at 0.5%, so they don’t have much to play for this season. They probably weren’t going to re-sign Harrington anyway, so with this trade, they’d roll the dice on T-Mac and see if he has anything left. If they like what they see, they’d try to re-sign him this summer. If they can include Jeffries in the deal, it would be pretty much a no-brainer for the Knicks, which makes me wonder what Washington is thinking.

Ah, the Wizards. They’d essentially be giving up Butler and Haywood for Al Harrington and whomever else the Knicks sent them. It’s possible that the Rockets could send over a young piece like Kyle Lowry. Something like that would have to be in the works because it makes no sense to trade Butler for Harrington. They’re the same age and Butler is simply the better player. Unless they’re looking to completely blow the team up, the Wizards should focus on getting a young piece for Jamison, who is 33 and has a bigger contract.


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The Wizards aren’t trading Antawn Jamison…

…or so says Michael Lee of the Washington Post.

The Wizards, or Ernie Grunfeld in particular, has invested a lot into this group with Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison. I think he really wants to see how far they can go if they are healthy. Jamison is the only Wizard to start in the past four postseasons and he was a one-man show in 2007, back when Gilbert and Caron Butler were out against Cleveland. They signed with the intention of keeping him. The best time to move Jamison was at the trade deadline last February.

NBCWashington.com’s Kyle Weidie expands on that line of thinking…

More important than the investments of Grunfeld are the interests of Abe Pollin. The aging owner is willing to do what it takes to compete for a title, but anyone familiar with Pollin’s modus operandi knows that doesn’t mean trading away an upstanding member of the community like Antawn.

Sure, the “perfect” opportunity could come knocking. But NBA GMs, especially in these economic times, won’t be rapping their knuckles on doors for a soon-to-be 33-year-old with three years and $40+ million left on his contract. Isiah Thomas is no longer running a team, people.

One look at the Wizards’ payroll and it’s easy to see that it’s a mess. Gilbert Arenas’s contract is ridiculous for a guy who has missed 91% of his team’s games over the last two years, and the Wizards still owe him $96 million over the next five seasons. Jamison is almost 33 and has more than $40 million remaining on his contract. The only truly reasonable deal amongst Washington’s “Big Three” is Caron Butler’s contract, but it’s also the shortest at two years and $21 million. Arenas and Jamison are virtually unmovable right now, and the Wizards would be dumb to trade Butler, who is arguably the team’s best all-around player.

Grunfeld wants to see what this group can do, and that’s great because he doesn’t really have any other options. He has hitched his wagon to this trio — or specifically to Arenas and Jamison — and is hoping they can succeed. But even with a healthy Arenas, does anyone really think the Wizards are a legit contender? Brendan Haywood is playing better (when healthy), but the Wizards still need a couple of big men to step into prominent roles. Washington has the fifth pick in the draft, but it is no sure thing that they’ll be able to find someone to help right away (Jordan Hill?), and the team is most definitely in “win now” mode.

My guess is that Arenas comes back reasonably strong and the Wizards finish the season as a #6 or #7 seed in the East, likely to be dismissed in the first round of the playoffs by Boston, Cleveland or Orlando. That’s probably a best-case scenario, and it’s not all that good, especially when the franchise is locked into this roster for the foreseeable future.

What went wrong in Washington?

The Washington Wizards are involved in some trade rumors as tomorrow’s deadline approaches.

The Wizards, sources said, quickly rebuffed Cleveland’s offer of Wally Szczerbiak’s $13.8 million expiring contract for former All-Star forward Antawn Jamison.

One source with knowledge of the Wizards’ thinking said Tuesday that team president Ernie Grunfeld is determined to continue resisting interest in Jamison and Caron Butler because the club has renewed hope that injured starters Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood will play in a small handful of games before the season ends, affording the Wiz an opportunity to evaluate the full team they hoped to field this season.

Looking at Washington’s payroll, the team is in a really bad way. They owe the injury-prone Arenas a mind-boggling $96 million over the next five years and they owe the 32-year-old Jamison around $40 million over the next three seasons.

I watched Ernie Grunfeld run my beloved Bucks for four seasons and he did a poor job.


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Marc Stein’s trade talk: Amare, Chandler, Caron and more

Marc Stein wrote a nice piece discussing some of the bigger NBA trade rumors out there right now.

1. Can we really expect an Amare Stoudemire trade in the next two weeks?

Sources say it’ll happen in-season only if the Suns can find a deal that delivers a mixture of top young talent and payroll relief. Which won’t be easy.

2. A deal for Toronto’s Jermaine O’Neal remains readily available to the Miami Heat. The Sacramento Kings likewise would still love to send Brad Miller to Miami for Shawn Marion as long as they don’t have to take back Marcus Banks, too.

3. I’ve heard multiple rumblings in the past month that Washington has made rugged forward Caron Butler available. But our research disputes that.

4. Portland is naturally making calls to see what it can fetch with its LaFrentz chip, but it appears that there’s a much better chance that Kings swingman John Salmons will wind up with the Blazers — who have inquired about Salmons — than that Chicago’s Luol Deng will.

5. San Antonio’s desire to acquire one more big man (preferably a floor-stretching big man) to counter the Lakers and Boston is no secret.

Random thoughts…

I still can’t believe that the Suns are actually considering trading a former 1st Team All-NBA player in the middle of his prime, but apparently they are…Jermaine O’Neal torched the Lakers two nights ago and looked great doing so. If he joined the Heat, that would become a very interesting team to watch. The key is his staying healthy, however…The Wizards would be nuts to trade Butler away. He’s their best player and the cheapest of their big three…I don’t think I’d go after Salmons if I’m the Blazers unless they’re planning to start him. He doesn’t play well off the bench and given the team’s glut of wings, I don’t know that he’d be the best option in the starting lineup…I’d love to see what Rasheed Wallace could do in a Spurs uniform, but San Antonio doesn’t have any expiring contracts and the numbers just don’t work.

Picking the 2009 NBA All-Stars

The NBA All-Star Game is part meritocracy and part popularity contest. First, the fans vote, and the top five vote getters – two guards, two forwards and a center – from each conference are the starters. Then the coaches vote on the remaining seven reserves for each team.

The current vote count can be seen here, but I thought I’d put together my own list – five starters and seven reserves – for each team. To me, when it comes to naming All-Stars a winning record is just as important as great stats, so given two players with similar numbers, I’m probably going to give the nod to the guy on the better team. I’ll list the player’s Player Efficiency Rating, which gives a nice overview of the guy’s per-minute statistical production this season.

And off we go…

EASTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS

Dwyane Wade, Heat
PER: 29.14
D-Wade is back with a vengeance. He’s averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds, and is (almost) single-handedly keeping the Heat in the playoff hunt. With 24% accuracy, I don’t know why he’s shooting so many threes (3.0 per game), but that’s just nitpicking. He’s third in the league in steals (2.25).

Joe Johnson, Hawks
PER: 19.84
JJ is averaging 22.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds, and has the Hawks in a battle for the #4 spot in the East. His three-point shooting is down two points, but his overall FG% is up a point. Remember when everyone laughed at the Hawks for giving up future MIP Boris Diaw and two first round picks for him?

LeBron James, Cavs
PER: 32.04
LeBron is the front-runner for the MVP thus far. He’s posting 27.7 points, 6.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds a game. His numbers are down, but that’s because the Cavs can afford to rest him an additional four minutes per game. It’s great to see his FG% over 50% (50.8%) and FT% approaching 80% (78.8%). LeBron has always been a statistical stud, but it’s the Cavs’ stellar record that has him leading the MVP race.


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2008 NBA Preview: #16 Washington Wizards

Offseason Movement: The Wizards big move this offseason was to re-sign Gilbert Arenas to a huge contract (six years, $111 million). By doing so, they were able to keep their core of Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison together. It was a risky signing for the team given all the problems he has had with his balky knee.
Keep Your Eye On: Gilbert’s knee
Simply stated, if the Wizards can keep Arenas, Jamison and Butler healthy, they’re probably a playoff team. If they lose any one of those players for an extended period of time, they’ll struggle to make the postseason.
The Big Question: Was the Arenas signing the best thing for the Wizards?
One school of thought would to let Arenas and Jamison go (via free agency or trade) and build around the much more affordable Butler. But he’s 28, and by the time the Wizards were “rebuilt,” he’d be past his prime. The Wizards pretty much had to sign Arenas and Jamison and hope that another player or two (Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, etc.) can emerge as a quality starter or role player. The Wizards aren’t going to have any salary cap room for a while, so they may be regretting this summer’s moves in two or three years when they’re still a .500 team and in cap hell.
Outlook: If all goes well, the Wizards will be safely in the playoffs. They’ll eventually lose in the first or second round. If a star gets injured for any length of time, they’ll miss the playoffs. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

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