Every Sunday throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

- It’s ironic really. Three weeks ago every NFL talking head said that if the Packers could get past the Lions in Detroit and the Giants in New York that they’d probably go undefeated. And after Green Bay mopped the floor with Oakland last Sunday, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the Pack would finish 16-0. Then the Chiefs, led by a chewed up and spit out Kyle Orton, go out and pull off the upset of the year by knocking off Green Bay, 19-14. Everyone will analyze this game to death but there’s not much to dissect. The strength of Kansas City, its defense, once again stepped up and played incredibly well. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, did not as the usually explosive Green Bay offense fizzled for the first time all year. Romeo Crennel didn’t pan out as a head coach but there’s no doubt the man knows how to run a defense. He put together a scheme today that will be studied, picked apart and emulated by every defensive coordinator that may face the Packers down the road. To hold Rodgers and Green Bay to just 14 points is truly remarkable.

- When you think about it, it makes more sense that an inferior team like the Chiefs were the ones to knock off the Packers instead of a playoff contender like the Lions or Giants. The Packers will always see Detroit or New York coming, so theoretically they should play their best football. A team like Kansas City, however, has a better chance of sneaking up on Green Bay (again, theoretically). Still, the Chiefs have nothing offensively so for them to pull off an upset like this was almost flabbergasting.

- The talk this week leading up to the Patriots’ clash with the Broncos was how Tim Tebow needed to step up in order to match Tom Brady. But in the end, Brady essentially made Tebow a non-factor by craving up a Denver defense that has the biggest reason for the Broncos’ success these past six weeks. One of the many things that make Brady so great is that he usually doesn’t force his hand when he doesn’t need to. For example, with Deion Branch out with an injury and Wes Welker and Rob Gronkwski drawing double teams, Brady simply keyed on Aaron Hernandez, who shredded the Broncos for 129 yards on nine catches. Even though New England’s defense was shaky at times (especially in the first quarter), the Pats proved how difficult it’ll be for Denver to match up with the elite teams in the AFC come playoff time.

- There’s no reason to devote 150 words to how the Saints beat the Vikings today in Minnesota. The Vikings’ secondary resembles a revolving door to the end zone, so it wasn’t surprising to see Drew Brees throw for 700 yards and 19 touchdowns versus a bad Minnesota defense. But it must be a little unnerving to fellow NFC contenders that the Saints finally looked good on the road. They haven’t played well away from the Superdome this season and quite frankly, they’ve developed a reputation of being more conservative on the road than at home. But today they went out and made it look easy. With the Packers falling for the first time all season, maybe the power structure in the NFC has shifted ever so slightly in New Orleans’ favor. If you were to pick one team and one team only to beat Green Bay, it has to be the Saints, who are the only NFC team that can match up with Green Bay in a shootout.

- If I’m a team like the Falcons or Lions, I’m praying that the Giants make it into the playoffs. Because right now they’re about as dangerous as a roll of Tollhouse cookie batter. In the last six weeks the Giants have wilted against good competition (San Francisco, New Orleans and Green Bay) and floundered against inferior division rivals (Philadelphia and Washington). The only reason they’re still alive in the NFC East is because the Cowboys crap themselves whenever they’ve expected to rise to the challenge and make a stand. As I noted in my predictions piece this week, I expected Washington to hang with the Giants. But I even wrote that I didn’t expect the Skins to win. Instead, they absolutely dominated the Giants from the opening kickoff and somehow managed to sweep New York for the first time since 1999. Given how Dallas had already won, how first place was on the line in the division, and how they were at home, it was inexcusable for the Giants to lose to the Skins. But why be shocked given how poorly New York has played the past month and a half? We should be long past expecting this team to dominate an opponent just because it’s better on paper, especially considering how the Giants have played down to their competition all season long.

- Between the Jets, Titans and Bengals, I don’t know which team I want to see in the postseason less. The Jets were absolutely manhandled by the Eagles from start to finish in Philadelphia, the Titans couldn’t muster more than 13 points in a loss to the previously-winless Colts, and the Bengals were in a 6-6 deadlock with the powerhouse Rams before finally shaking loose in the second half. At this point the NFL should just give the No. 3 seed in the AFC a bye and save itself the embarrassment of a Mark Sanchez v. T.J. Yates battle royale.

- I shudder to think how good the Detroit Lions could be if they had even an ounce of discipline and/or composure. As they showed today in Oakland, the Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson connection is electrifying, the front four will give most offensive line fits and the linebacker corps continues to overachieve. That was a great come-from-behind win for Jim Schwartz’s squad but this is a team that lacks the fundamentals (see tackling and not committing stupid penalties). Still, at 9-5 the Lions look like a lock for one of the two Wild Card spots in the NFC and after a decade of miserable football, it’s all smiles right now in Detroit…

- …of course, the Raiders really handed the Lions that game today. Had Oakland stuck with Michael Bush and the running game instead of getting cute with shotgun formations late in the fourth quarter, the Raiders probably win today and make things interesting again in the AFC West. (It also didn’t help that Carson Palmer missed a wide open Chaz Schilens on a third-and-three that could have sealed the game for Oakland.) For all intents and purposes Hue Jackson has done a great job for the Raiders this season, especially considering all the injuries Oakland has suffered through. But he could have managed the fourth quarter better today.

- The Texans were due for a game like they had today against the Panthers. They deserve all the credit in the world for persevering through injury after injury after injury, but T.J. Yates is their starting quarterback. At some point he was going to turn in an ugly performance and he certainly did today. Even with Arian Foster and that powerful rushing attack, it was only a matter of time that the defense would falter and Yates would stumble trying to make plays. That said, seeing as how they’re already in the playoffs this loss will actually serve Yates and the Texans well in the end. It’ll be a good learning experience for the rookie.

- Why again did the Bears not reach out to Donovan McNabb a few weeks ago? Because Mike Martz’s offense is too complicated to learn in a short period of time? That makes sense. Far be it for me to question Jerry Angelo but the odds were rather high that Hanie would struggle as a full-time starter. I would have rather given McNabb a shot to learn a scaled back version of Martz’s offense than allow Hanie to piss away a potential Wild Card spot. Granted, McNabb has shown nothing in two years that would make you think he could have saved Chicago’s season but at least with him there was a chance to catch lightning in a bottle.

- The Seahawks have been pretty fun to watch these past few weeks. Disagree with me and I’ll remind you that they had a fat guy score a touchdown today. Fat guy + touchdown = fun. It’s science.

- I would hate to play the Panthers if I were a team fighting for a playoff berth right now. They pulled off a “fumblerooski” with Richie Brockel in their 28-13 win over the Texans today. There’s no telling what else they’re capable of.

- Next Monday night in New Orleans is going to be f.u.n. – fun. The Falcons have finally found some consistency on offense and if they’re firing on all cylinders out of their no-huddle attack, they can hang with the Saints. New Orleans has been unstoppable at home this year but if the Falcons can get Brent Grimes (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (toe) back from injuries then the Atlanta defense is capable of slowing Brees and Co. down. The defense has quietly been the strength of the Falcons team this season.

- Hello, George Wilson? Yes, this is the grounds crew at Ralph Wilson Stadium. One of our employees retrieved your jockstrap following today’s game. We went back and watched the film and we can pinpoint the moment you lost it. Do you remember when Reggie Bush did that spin move on you in the second quarter? Right, well he spun you right out of them. You can come pick it up at lost and found at your earliest convenience.

- I would love to be a fly on the wall whenever Buffalo’s front office gets together to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick play. There must be a ton of, “Dear God what…were…we…thinking!” after they handed him that seven-year, $62 million contract back in late October. Dude has been brutal ever since. Don’t be fooled by his stat line (31-of-47, 316 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) from today’s loss to the Dolphins. He was awful, posting his two touchdowns and the majority of his yards when the game was pretty much out of reach in the fourth quarter.

Four spreads of note:

Giants +3 @ Cowboys, 8:30PM ET, Sunday
This game is the ultimate crapshoot; it could play out in a variety of different ways, none of which would be surprising. But if you’re looking for value, I almost always go with the underdog when it comes to betting on NFC East teams. When NFC East teams are expected to win against an inferior opponent, for whatever reason they seem to underachieve. Examples of this include the Cowboys’ loss to the Cardinals last week, or their failed cover against the Dolphins and Redskins, respectively, in previous games. The Giants also lost to the Seahawks at home, failed to cover against the Dolphins at home, and lost the Eagles as a 6-point favorite in Week 11. On the flip side, the Giants covered and won against the Eagles (Week 2), Patriots (Week 9) and Packers (Week 13) as underdogs of seven points or more. Granted, New York was also crushed by New Orleans in Week 12 but my point is this: NFC East teams often represent value when they’re the underdog and are good fade material when they’re supposed to win. I don’t have hard data here so take this simple approach with a grain of salt. But again, from a pure value standpoint it sure seems like NFC East teams rise to the challenge when they’re the dog.

Raiders +11 @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
As I’ve written many times on this site: It’s Green Bay and then everyone else. And with how poorly Oakland played last Sunday in Miami, there will be plenty of bettors that look at the spread in this game and lay the 11 points without hesitation. But let’s keep in mind that the Raiders’ backs are against the wall here. They’re now tied with Denver for first place in the AFC West and while they play undefeated Green Bay this Sunday, the Broncos have a very winnable home game against a Jay Cutler and Matt Forte-less Chicago team. Thus, we’re probably going to see Oakland’s best effort. With the amount of injuries that the Raiders accumulated in the past month, it was only a matter of time before they suffered a letdown like they did last weekend against the Dolphins. Thus, I’m thinking they bounce back strong this Sunday and at the very least stay within 10 points of the Pack.

49ers -3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
This is a game you look at and you say, “49ers are only -3.5? Sign me up.” But Arizona proved last Sunday in its win over Dallas that it hasn’t given up on the season despite the fact that the playoffs remain a longshot. The Rams, on the other hand, gave up weeks ago and bettors will probably rush to the window to lay coin on a Niners team that routed St. Louis by 26 points last week. What I’m saying is that this is your classic trap game. Oddsmakers claim that they don’t lay traps for bettors but why is this game only 3.5? San Fran is 10-2 this season while Arizona is 5-7. Even with home field advantage factored in, the line still seems too low. I’m not suggested that the Cards will win outright but something tells me oddsmakers are banking on this being a field goal game either way.

Falcons -3 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
I wrote this in my recap of Week 13 and I’ll mention it again seeing as how it relates to this article: I don’t think there’s that wide of a gap between the Falcons and Panthers right now. On paper, Atlanta has better overall talent. But on paper, Atlanta had better overall talent than Houston and it lost 17-10 despite the fact that Andre Johnson suffered another hamstring injury in the second half and T.J. Yates started for the Texans at quarterback. The Falcons will once again be without top cornerback Brent Grimes and nickel back Kelvin Hayden, which means Dominique Franks and Chris Owens will receive plenty of looks this Sunday from Cam Newton. Given the inexperience of Franks and Owens, they become a weakness that Newton may exploit. There’s always value in a home dog and given the injuries the Falcons are currently dealing with on both sides of the ball, I’d give Carolina a long look this Sunday.

2011 NFL Week 14 Odds:

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Two weeks ago I was a flaming pile of horse dung. Last week, I went 3-1 as the Raiders, Seahawks and Bears/Packers under all hit. My lone loss was the Patriots, who choked away a 21-0 lead in Buffalo.

What does all this mean? I’m ready for my first 4-0 Sunday! Or, more than likely, another 0-4 day. Either way it’ll be fun…

Lions @ Cowboys, 1:00PM ET
Something’s fishy about this line. The public is all over the 3-0 Lions, especially with how poorly the Cowboys played on Monday night in a win over the Redskins. Yet Detroit goes from +1 to +2.5 the night before the game? Give me the Cowboys, who are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. (The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.)
THE PICK: COWBOYS –2.5

Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton has been a big-time surprise so far but I think the Bears’ Tampa 2 will give him problems today in Chicago. That defense is designed to take away the big play, which has been a staple of Newton’s game early on. The Bears have always played better at home and I like the fact that the spread is below the key number of 7. The Bears are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, while the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games.
THE PICK: BEARS –6.5

Giants @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Eli Manning and the Giants looked fantastic against the Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, so it’s only natural that he and New York will struggle against a 1-2 Cardinals team today. This is another spread that doesn’t make much sense. The Giants opened as a 3-point favorite and despite a public backing, it’s dropped to New York –1. Kevin Kolb is familiar with the Giants’ defense from his days in Philadelphia and I think that experience will play out today in an outright Arizona victory.
THE PICK: CARDINALS +1

Broncos @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
I don’t like this spread either. The Broncos are vastly inferior to the Packers and yet the line continues to drop. The spread opened at Green Bay –13.5 and is now down to 12. Who on earth is taking Denver in this matchup? Better yet, who is betting against Green Bay? The line movement doesn’t make sense and when that happens, I like going against the grain. A week after winning an emotional back-and-forth battle against the Saints, the Packers found themselves down 10-0 to the Panthers and didn’t cover. Now they’re coming off a physical road win against a divisional opponent (the Bears) and face a non-conference team that’s 1-2. I think this one stays within 10 points.
THE PICK: BRONCOS +12

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 5-7

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 4 odds.

Jack Del Rio has already seen enough of Luke McCown.

Following a nasty performance in New York over the weekend, Del Rio has decided to bench McCown and will start rookie signal caller Blaine Gabbert against the Panthers this Sunday. Gabbert, the 10th overall pick in April’s draft, will oppose fellow rookie quarterback Cam Newton, who has already thrown over 800 yards in his first two NFL games.

It was easy to see this move coming when the Jags dumped David Garrard shortly before the season. Del Rio and the front office had seemingly wanted to get rid of Garrard for years but they never had a suitable backup to make the move. When Gabbert was drafted back in April, he was viewed as a raw prospect but that was okay because he could learn behind Garrard for a year…or so everyone thought. But a year was apparently too much for Del Rio and Co., as Garrard was released rather abruptly on September 6.

McCown played fairly well in the team’s season opener against Tennessee, but understandably struggled miserably against Rex Ryan’s stout defense last week while throwing four nasty interceptions. Gabbert will face a Carolina defense that has struggled against the run in its first two games, so expect the Jaguars to largely keep the ball on the ground this Sunday and let the rookie be a “game manager” in his professional debut as a starter.

Back in April, I have to admit I was very skeptical about Cam Newton being the #1 pick. He was obviously a stud in college and he had a big arm, but there were questions about his ability to run an NFL offense and make the quick reads given the type of offense he ran in college.

After putting up 422 yards in week one, Newton cam back with 432 yards this week, and he did it against the Green Bay Packers. He threw for one TD and ran for another, but he also threw three interceptions.

So, what can we make of this? The kid obviously has a ton of talent and he’ll likely be a consistent highlight reel, but can he be a consistent winner? Will he be a stat machine, or a guy that can make good decisions and win in the post season?

It’s obviously way too early to tell, but so far he has our attention.

Panthers owner Jerry Richardson recently revealed that he had a conversation with Cam Newton regarding whether or not the quarterback had any tattoos or piercings. When Newton told Richardson that he didn’t, the owner responded: “We want to keep it that way.”

This, of course, has caused a small internet uproar. From what I’ve seen and read, the public has been decidedly split on the issue. There are some who believe that at 22, Newton can do whatever he wants to his own body while others suggest that he should do what the man signing his checks asks.

What’s my take? I fall somewhere in between, although before I dive into the topic I want to point out that Richardson isn’t the first owner to mandate or suggest players display a certain image. The Yankees have been doing it for decades and I think they’ve turned out just fine. Whether you were Derek Jeter or Johnny Damon, the late George Steinbrenner made sure all Yankee players had a clean look, which included no long hair, no facial hair, and no tattoos or piercings.

The Carolina Panthers are a business establishment first and foremost. They hire employees, they fire employees, they sell merchandise and most of all: they’re in business to make money. With that in mind, Richardson has every right to tell one of his employees what he wants for a dress code. There are literally millions of businesses that instruct their employees to cover up tattoos and piercings. That’s just the way it goes. There are certain connotations that come with tattoos and businessmen and women don’t want them interfering with their ability to make money. Quite frankly, I think that’s pretty understandable.

On the other hand, Newton is a grown man and has the right to do whatever he wants to his own body. Furthermore, tattoos don’t make the man. Just because Newton gets ink doesn’t mean he’s going to turn around and steal laptops, cheat on tests or get wrapped up in an NCAA-sized scandal. (Wait…what?)

The bottom line is that Richardson has every right to tell his employees how they should dress in the work place. That said, the general rule when it comes to tattoos is that you can have them, but they must be covered up. If Richardson wants the new face of the franchise not to have any tattoos, I think that’s a bit extreme. But if Richardson wants Newton to cover up any tattoos he may get in the future, I don’t think that’s unreasonable. (Of course, there’s the issue about why Newton can’t show his tattoos and other Panthers can, but that’s a topic for another day.)

Personally, if someone were paying me $22 million I’d have no problem steering clear of tattoo parlors until I was done playing. Hell, for $22 million I’d dress up like Big Bird everyday if someone wanted me to – and have a smile on under that big ass costume while I was doing it.

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Chargers are “monitoring” the Steve Smith situation in Carolina.

The Chargers’ interest, according to people with knowledge of the situation, can be characterized as monitoring and wait-and-see. That is comparable to how they went about signing free agent safety Bob Sanders in March, letting other teams woo Sanders before making an offer to a player who wanted to be a Charger.

Teams are not allowed to conduct player business during the ongoing NFL lockout. But the Panthers were known to be shopping Smith prior to the league’s shutdown on March 11.

The Chargers landing Smith could be a product of his wanting to play in a good offense, close to his Lynwood, Calif., birthplace coupled with the team’s need for a top-flight receiver.

Smith has already cleaned out his locker in Carolina, put his house on the market and has let the Panthers know that he would like to be traded to the Chargers, Raiders or Ravens. No word yet on if he plans to burn the words “Trade Me Now” into the grass at Bank of America Stadium, but there are rumors that that is his next step.

Smith would be a nice addition to San Diego’s offense and he would certainly appreciate working with Philip Rivers, who actually resembles a professional quarterback (unlike the puss that the Panthers have been trotting onto the field over the last couple of years). He would also benefit from playing opposite Vincent Jackson and not worrying about facing constant double-teams because he’s the only playmaker in the offense.

I’m sure I’ll revisit this story once the owners and players stop fighting over fans money.

Suddenly, I have more respect for Jimmy Clausen.

A couple of days ago, a news (and I use that word loosely here) story broke that first overall pick Cam Newton wants to wear No. 2 in the pros, just as he did at Auburn. The problem is that number already belongs to Clausen, who told the media on Tuesday that he wasn’t willing to give it up.

“It’s mine right now,” Clausen told the Charlotte Observer. “We’ll see what happens.”

Apparently Clausen hinted that he’s willing to give up the number if Newton was willing to pay for it. Considering Newton will receive a huge signing bonus once the lockout ends, a number of people in Clausen’s shoes would probably do the same thing.

Hey rookie, if you want the number, pony up for it.

Based on what I’ve read, it doesn’t sound like Newton demanded Clausen to give up the number like some are suggesting. He was probably asked if he wanted to wear No. 2 in the pros and he answered yes. He may have not even known that Clausen wore that number last year.

But if this does become an issue, you have to wonder if that scathing report that Pro Football Weekly’s Nolan Nawrocki wrote back in March is starting to come to fruition.

Panthers’ head coach Ron Rivera indicated after the draft that No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton will have the opportunity to play as a rookie.

“Cam will play when Cam gets himself ready to play,” Rivera said. “I’m putting a little bit of a challenge out there for him. That’s what he thrives on.”

As long as the Panthers don’t rush Newton’s development or force him to play before he’s ready, there’s nothing wrong with handing the keys over to a rookie. Granted, it didn’t work for Carolina last year with Jimmy Clausen, but the Ravens and Falcons obviously had success with Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan, both of which took their respective teams to the playoffs in their rookie years. Even though he eventually suffered an injury, Matthew Stafford had some success as a rookie in Detroit, too.

Does that mean Newton will have as much success as Flacco or Ryan? Of course not. But teams seem a little less apprehensive these days than they were 10-12 years ago when guys like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Joey Harrington were ruining lives. If the Panthers can simplify the playbook and allow Newton to mainly use athletic ability next year, then maybe he/they will find some success in his rookie season.

Like any top-10 quarterback, the projections on Newton seem to be mixed. Assuming he beats out Clausen for the starting job in training camp, we may find out right away if Newton can have an impact in the pros.

While appearing on FOX Sports Radio with the Charlotte Observer’s Darin Gantt, Panthers’ general manager Marty Hurney suggested that Carolina will take a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick on Thursday.

“This is a quarterback league,” Hurney said. “Look at the order of the draft. The ones who have them are picking low, and the ones who don’t are pick high.”

Hurney went onto say that “this has nothing to do with Jimmy Clausen.” It’s noteworthy that Gantt is convinced that the Panthers will take Cam Newton with the top pick, although that conflicts with Tony Softli’s prediction over the weekend that Carolina will take Alabama DT Marcell Dareus. Softli is a former high-ranking executive with the Panthers, so take his Dareus prediction for what it’s worth.

Hurney could be setting up a smokescreen with his comments about quarterbacks, although the only benefit there would be if some team were interested in trading up for Newton. If no team is, then there’s really no reason for Hurney to be coy about the Panthers’ draft plans at this point. It’s not like someone is going to sneak up ahead of them seeing as how they hold the first overall pick.

My gut says Newton and when I release my final mock draft on Thursday, I don’t imagine that you’ll see anyone else’s name written into that top spot.