Joe Lunardi projects that the Arizona Wildcats would be the last team in if the season ended today. The Wildcats are 8-8 in conference and 18-11 overall. They have two remaining games — Cal, Stanford — both at home. Like most bubble teams, they have a poor record (2-4) against Top 25-ranked teams, though they are helped by their 2-1 record against Top 25 RPI teams, with wins over Kansas and Washington. They also beat Gonzaga back in December and UCLA to cap a seven-game winning streak.

So what’s the problem? Well, Arizona has 11 losses, and they’ve dropped their last three games. In their defense, those games were all on the road and two (Washington, Arizona St.) were against ranked opponents. But Washington St. was beatable and Arizona lost by 16.

A win Thursday night against Cal would probably seal the deal, though a loss against Stanford and a poor showing in the Pac-10 tournament would offset that win. It’s clear that the Wildcats still have some work to do. They need to win at least one of the next two games to stay at or above .500 in conference. If they beat Cal and Stanford, they can probably absorb a first round loss in the Pac-10 tourney. But a win or two in the tourney would obviously help.

Joe Lunardi (ESPN “bracketologist”) projects four Big 12 teams to be safely in the NCAA tournament: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Texas. Three other teams — Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas A&M — are on the bubble.

Lunardi has Oklahoma State as a #10 seed, so they are semi-safe. The Cowboys play Kansas State tonight in a game that the Wildcats desperately need. Oklahoma State closes the season with arch-rival Oklahoma on Saturday. OSU probably just needs to win one more game to feel safe, but if the Cowboys lose three straight to close the season (KSU, OU and the Big 12 tourney opener), it may knock them out of contention. It doesn’t help their cause that they are just 1-5 against Top 25 teams, but the Cowboys’ #32 RPI (a product of the NCAA’s 11th-toughest schedule) does help.

After Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois, there are five Big Ten teams with a legitimate shot with a postseason berth. Right now, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the conference getting six NCAA berths. (The aforementioned three, plus Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State.) Both Michigan and Minnesota are listed amongst the first four teams out. This means that a lot can change over the next couple of weeks.

My former coach, Bo Ryan, has his Badgers in the best position of all the Big Ten bubble teams. Lunardi has Wisconsin as a #9 seed, so they are relatively safe, though if they lose at Minnesota and at home against Indiana, they’ll be in a more precarious position. They are just 2-7 against Top 25 opponents, but they are a combined 5-1 against the other four Big Ten bubble teams. Plus, they have won six of their last seven, so they are playing pretty well right now. A pair of wins to close the season will guarantee a spot. A loss against Minnesota and a win against Indiana might mean that the Badgers still have some work to do in the Big Ten tourney.

The Big East (apparently) doesn’t have a regular season championship. They call their postseason tourney the Big East Conference Championship. The “bracketologists” over ESPN project that the conference will get eight bids — UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia and Providence, with the Friars being one of the last teams in. That leaves Cincinnati and Notre Dame on the outside looking in.

Cincy plays at South Florida and at home against Seton Hall this week, so with two wins, they would finish the regular season at 20-11 and 10-8 in conference. If that happens, it would be tough for the selection committee to leave them out. However, they are just 1-6 against Top 25 teams and the one win was against an overrated Georgetown team. Basically, they’ve been winning games that they should win, but aren’t beating any “superior” opponents. They don’t have a single marquee win on the season, so unless they win out and make some noise in the Big East tourney, they may not get a bid.

Notre Dame is in an even tougher position…