ESPN’s Mark Schlabach discusses the bubble teams that got in, along with several that didn’t. Clearly, the biggest surprise is the Arizona Wildcats, who lost to Arizona State in the the Pac-10 tournament and finished 19-13 on the season.

Certainly, the Wildcats are the most surprising team in the 65-team field. I thought Arizona’s 24-year streak of consecutive NCAA tournament appearances would end after USC won the Pac-10 tournament title and claimed the league’s NCAA auto bid.

Arizona lost to Arizona State for the third time this season, 68-56, in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament. The Wildcats lost five of their last six games and went 2-9 in road games. But they played 16 games against RPI top-50 foes, winning six of them, and were 8-12 against the top 100.

Obviously, the NCAA selection committee rewarded Arizona for playing a very difficult schedule. And because Arizona beat teams such as Kansas, Washington, UCLA and USC, it’s really hard to say there’s no reason it shouldn’t be in the field.

Arizona certainly had an argument, but so did several other teams. Schlabach lists Auburn, Creighton, Penn State, Saint Mary’s and San Diego State as the five biggest snubs. Dick Vitale insists that the mid-majors can’t get the type of non-conference competition that the major conference teams can get. They might be able to schedule a big conference team, but they have to play them twice (in consecutive seasons) on the road. Jay Bilas disagrees and says the mid-majors can get the games they want.

Who’s right? Who knows. I’d like to hear what some current mid-major coaches have to say about the subject. Certainly, Gonzaga was able to schedule a ton of challenging games, but Gonzaga is a different animal. So are Memphis and Xavier. These mid-majors have a long tradition of great basketball, so it’s probably easier to get the games that they want.

The thing that gets me is that the Wildcats lost five of their last six games in the Pac-10, which is down this season. They finished 9-9 in conference. Sure, they have the players to compete with anyone, but they’ve underachieved all season. Why reward them?

As of this morning, Joe Lunardi says the last four teams in will be Minnesota, Maryland, Creighton and Saint Mary’s. His first four out are Penn St., Arizona, San Diego State and Auburn. His next four out are Florida, New Mexico, UNLV and Tulsa.

It seems odd to me that he has SDSU out of tournament after the Aztecs finished the season with back-to-back wins against a bubble team (UNLV), a win over an in-the-Dance team (BYU) and a near-miss against another in-the-Dance team (Utah). Sure, SDSU doesn’t have a marquee win, but neither does Saint Mary’s. I guess Lunardi points to the head-to-head matchup (which the Aztecs lost) as the difference. But SDSU is playing better right now, so it depends on how much stock the committee puts in late season versus early season play. Also, SDSU lost to Arizona by 13 (on the road), so that can’t help either.

It’s also odd to see Creighton back in after being on the “first four out” or “next four out” lists all week. After all, they didn’t do anything to improve their situation after losing by 24 points against Illinois State. SDSU has a tougher schedule (35 vs. 111), a better RPI (35 to 40) and Creighton doesn’t have a single win against a top 25 RPI team. (The Aztecs beat Utah back in January.) Maybe SDSU doesn’t deserve a nod over Saint Mary’s or even Arizona, but they should get in before the Blue Jays do.

It seems to me that if Mississippi State loses, there are two spots available for five teams: Creighton, Saint Mary’s, SDSU, Arizona and Penn State. If the Bulldogs win, there will just be one spot available for those five teams.

On the flip side, Lunardi has removed UConn from his top line and replaced the Huskies with the Memphis Tigers, who blew out Tulsa en route to their 987th straight C-USA title. I just don’t know what to make of Memphis. They lost to Syracuse at home, lost to Xavier on a neutral court and had a road loss to Georgetown. They did blow Gonzaga out by 18 in Spokane, and that’s their only really good win. I watched some of the C-USA championship game and they didn’t wow me despite beating Tulsa (#56 RPI) at the FedEx Forum.

Michigan State and Oklahoma knocked themselves out of contention for a #1 seed with poor performances in the conference tournaments, but Duke can make a case if they can beat Florida State in the ACC tourney. Either way, I think North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt and Memphis will be the #1 seeds and Oklahoma, Duke, Michigan State and UConn will be #2 seeds, just as Lunardi has it. I don’t think there is anyone on his #3 line — Kansas, Missouri, Wake Forest and Villanova — that has a strong argument to be a #2 seed.

On the other end of the spectrum, Arizona’s loss to ASU has really put the Wildcats on the hot seat. Their RPI (59) isn’t impressive, though their SOS (31) is. They are 2-1 versus top 25 RPI teams, so that’s something. USC doesn’t have the great wins that Arizona has, but their RPI and SOS are both better and the Trojans’ win against Cal has them back in the conversation. The fact that the three Big 10 bubble teams — Minnesota, Michigan and Penn St. — all won, doesn’t help either team’s chances, either. Michigan looks to be in (Joe Lunardi projects the Wolverines to be a #10 seed), while Minnesota (projected #11 seed) and Penn St. (#12 seed) are still iffy, but as of right now, he says they’re both in.

I’ll discuss the other bubble teams as the games get going today. Be sure to bookmark this post and check back for my thoughts as the scores roll in. Right now, Virginia Tech and North Carolina are doing battle in the ACC quarterfinals while Minnesota and Michigan State are squaring off in the Big 10 quarters. If the Hokies can beat the Ty Lawson-less Tar Heels, it will go a long way towards earning VT a bid. Michigan State is looking for a #1 seed while Minnesota would guarantee themselves a berth with a win over the Spartans.

11:55 PM: I’m signing off for tonight. We’re having a birthday party for my baby boy tomorrow (he’s turning one), so I won’t be blogging. Check back on Sunday for some reaction to the Sat/Sun action.

11:46 PM: Illinois beat Michigan by 10. I think the Wolverines have done enough to get a bid, but only time will tell. Syracuse looks like they are going to beat the Mountaineers in overtime. Terrific mental toughness by the Orangemen. I’m interested to see how they play tomorrow against a very athletic Louisville team looking to earn a #1 seed. Again, I think that the fact that Syracuse plays zone has helped them deal with seven overtimes in two nights. They simply don’t burn as much energy on that end of the court as teams that play heavy man-to-man. Mizzou put away Oklahoma State. That Baylor/Mizzou matchup in the Big 12 final will have nationwide implications. Auburn beat Florida — the Gators are probably out and Auburn is back on the bubble.

11:40 PM: Duke beat BC by one with some good defense down the stretch. And…believe it or not…West Virginia and Syracuse just went into overtime!

11:20 PM: San Diego State beat BYU, so that strengthens the Aztecs’ argument that they should get a bid. Before the win, Joe Lunardi had the team as the last one in, and with a win over a NCAA team like BYU, you’d think they’d be safe. Arizona State upset Washington in a chippy one. It’s clear these two teams don’t like each other, especially the two point guards. Duke is up three with four minutes to go (ESPN2), Syracuse leads WVU by five with three minutes to play (ESPN), and Missouri is up four with 11 minutes to go (ESPN360).

10:57 PM: I’m perplexed by this Hyundai Assurance Plus program, where they cover your car payment if you lose your job. I would assume that this deal would appeal to people that are worried about losing their job, but my advice would be that if you’re in that situation, it’s not a good time to buy a new car. Buy a used car or keep driving whatever you’re currently driving.

10:48 PM: So much for Dayton helping the bubble teams out by winning the A-10 tourney. Duquesne is up 13 with 2:35 to play, so it’s not looking good. More bad news for teams on the bubble. Some great games going on right now…Duke/BC, Mizzou/OSU, WVU/Syracuse, ASU/Washington and Florida/Auburn are all within four points.

10:21 PM: He’s a heckuva shooter, but Eric Devendorf is really annoying. Stop with all the antics and act like you’ve made a play before. Maybe it’s the tats that bother me…

BC goes into halftime on a 20-5 run and leads Duke by seven. I don’t know what to think of this Duke team. I don’t see them getting out of the Sweet Sixteen, especially if they meet an athletic, well-coached team.

10:16 PM: Finally some good news for the other bubble teams. Purdue is blowing out Penn State. The Nittany Lions probably needed to keep things closer to get a bid, so they will be on the hot seat if they continue to get blown out.

10:03 PM: Good time for hoops fans — we have Duke/BC, ASU/Washington, Syracuse/West Virginia, Florida/Auburn and Oklahoma St./Mizzou. The winner of that Florida/Auburn game will still be alive for a bid, the loser will probably be on the outside looking in.

9:16 PM: Look at Baylor! The Bears beat Texas, so they’ll be heading to the Big 12 final with an NCAA bid on the line. Obviously, if they win, it will be horrible news for the bubble teams. Maryland closed out Wake Forest, so they’re probably going to get a bid.

8:46 PM: Oh boy, Temple beat Xavier. That’s bad news for the bubble teams, as is Maryland’s performance against Wake Forest. Bubble teams really need Dayton to win tonight and to go on and beat Temple in the A-10 final, because the Flyers were going to get a bid anyway. If Temple wins, there will be one fewer at-large bid to be had.

8:33 PM: Maryland is playing with a sense of urgency and Wake Forest isn’t. The Terps are up 13 points with 14 minutes to play, and if they can hold on, they’ll probably earn a spot in the NCAA tourney. Meanwhile, Louisville has a five-point lead with 14 minutes to play.

6:53 PM: Well, the Gamecocks lost to Mississippi State by 14, so that’s going to put them on the hot seat. The Bulldogs are still alive. The Michigan/Illinois game has tipped off, but it’s not on national television. In about five minutes, Villanova/Louisville and Maryland/Wake Forest will tip off. Louisville is playing for a #1 seed while the Terps really need to beat Wake to get back in the conversation for a NCAA bid.

5:05 PM: Bubble team South Carolina is tied with Mississippi State with less than eight minutes to play. MSU is a longshot to make the tourney, but might get a look if they make the SEC final. Joe Lunardi has the Gamecocks as an 11-seed, so a loss will having them squirming on Sunday. A win probably clinches a spot. The game is on ESPN360.

4:56 PM: More on the OSU/Wisconsin fallout. The win should seal the deal for the Buckeyes. Wisconsin should already be in, but Bo Ryan will be sweating a bit on Sunday. The Badgers have a good RPI (40) and a tough SOS (16), but they’re just 1-3 versus top 25 RPI teams and just 3-6 against teams ranked 26-50. We’ll see…

4:40 PM: Great finish to the FSU/GT game. With the Seminoles down by one with 0:10 to play, ACC Coach of the Year Leonard Hamilton drew up a great out of bounds play that set up Derwin Kitchen for a reverse layup that gave Florida State the lead for good. Ohio State grinded out a win against Wisconsin but got the benefit of a bad call with less than a minute to play. Up two, the Evan Taylor got a rebound and the Badgers trapped. The ref blew the whistle and gave Taylor a time out even though he seemed surprised by the call. (After the call he signaled time out as he ran over to the bench as if he was explaining the call. Weird.) Anyway, there was a four second differential between the shot clock and the game clock and Wisconsin elected to start fouling instead of defending for the possession and hoping for a stop. I don’t like putting people on the line in that situation but far be it for me to second guess my former coach.

4:29 PM: Georgia Tech is giving Florida State a great run. The Seminoles are up three with a buck and change to play (ESPN2). Wisconsin and Ohio State are separated by just two points with three minutes to play. Typical Big 10 battle. The Buckeyes need this game more than the Badgers do.

3:02 PM: Looks like LSU is going to put Kentucky away, which means that the Wildcats’ slim hopes of earning a berth are gone. Wisconsin/OSU have a combined 16 points almost 10 minutes into the first half. Oi.

2:11 PM: It looks like the Spartans are going to put Minnesota away. The Gophers gave them a good run, which should be enough to get Minny a bid. The Gophers have a good RPI (36), SOS (37) and a marquee win against Louisville. The next game in the Big 10 tournament — Ohio State/Wisconsin — should be interesting. A bad loss might put the loser back on the bubble.

2:04 PM: Good news for the other bubble teams — UNC beat VT. The Hokies had the ball down one with 31 seconds left, but failed to get up a shot. Tyler Hansbrough forced a jump ball in the lane with five seconds to play. Greenberg wanted a foul but the replay showed that it was a pretty clean play. This loss should knock Tech out of the NCAA tourney.

1:52 PM: Virginia Tech leads North Carolina by three with two and a half minutes to play (on ESPN). I’m rooting for the Hokies if only to see Seth Greenberg making faces on the sideline next week.

Bookmark this page and check back periodically for my thoughts as I watch the scores roll in on Thursday. There are at least 10 bubble teams in action today, starting with Providence/Louisville in the Big East quarterfinals.

1:32 AM: I’m going to hit the hay. I’ll be back tomorrow at 12 PM ET to start this all again. New Mexico is currently down seven to Wyoming with two minutes to play, so their bubble might be bursting tonight. It was a great day of basketball capped by one of the best games I’ve ever seen.

1:25 AM: The Orangemen finally prevailed, 127-117 (6 OT). Syracuse plays a ton of zone and I think that gave them an advantage in a game of this length. When you’re playing man to man, you have to go from side to side (of the half court) to cover your guy. When you’re in a zone, you just cover an area, so there’s less running involved. Over the course of a regular 40-minute game, it doesn’t make that much of a difference, but if you give a player the choice of playing 70 minutes of man-to-man or 70 minutes of zone, they’ll pick zone. Zone simply requires less effort, and I think the Orangemen had more in the tank at the end. I’m exhausted and I didn’t play a minute. What a great game…

1:07 AM: This is insane. This UConn/Syracuse game just went to a 6TH OVERTIME! Forget about the winner having any gas left in the tank for tomorrow night. Hell, they might not even show up to play.

12:57 AM: Bill Rafferty with the line of the night, “These guys are so tired they’re going to need cabs to get to the other end of the court.” A.J. Price has been great in the last two OTs.

12:47 AM: Wow, what a game in New York. UConn and Syracuse are in a 5TH OVERTIME. My TiVo ran out of space at the end of the second overtime, so I checked the internet to see who won and I saw that the game was still going on. So I flipped it on and watched the 4th OT. Hasheem Thabeet just fouled out, but Syracuse couldn’t finish at the rim with time winding down. Five more minutes.

11:06 PM: USC just beat Cal in a tight one, so the Trojans are still alive for an NCAA berth. Mizzou is controlling its game against Texas Tech as is Boston College in its game versus Virginia. UConn and Syracuse are battling with about nine minutes left on ESPN. The Huskies are up two and probably need the win if they hope to secure a #1 seed next week.

10:00 PM: USC is beating Cal by 15 at halftime. The Trojans are a team that could play their way into a bid with a few wins in the Pac-10 tourney. Their RPI (61) and SOS (27) aren’t bad, but they’re 0-4 against Top 25 RPI teams.

9:17 PM: Down goes Pitt! Down goes Oklahoma! The Panthers lost to a very good West Virginia team that was helped by DeJuan Blair’s foul trouble. Watch out for the Mountaineers in the tourney. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State nipped Oklahoma in a great game, which means that the top two seeds in the Big 12 tourney have been knocked out (and Missouri has yet to play). OSU was already in, but now the door is open for a team like Baylor or Texas Tech to get a bid by winning the tourney. The other three teams still alive – OSU, Mizzou and Texas — are already in. In the ACC, Maryland beat NC State to keep the Terps’ slim NCAA hopes alive. They really need to win another game or two to have a legit shot.

7:39 PM: West Virginia is giving Pitt a tough game, but if you believe Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, the Mountaineers are the #9 team in the nation. Washington beat Stanford, San Diego State put away UNLV (bad news for the other bubble teams), Maryland is in a tight game against NC State (a game that they MUST win) and Oklahoma State is giving Oklahoma a good run.

6:36 PM: Stanford is giving #10 Washington a good game. The Huskies lead by three at halftime. Also, San Diego St. is up 15 on projected #10-seed UNLV, so a win might put them in.

6:26 PM: It looks like the three Big Ten teams on the bubble took care of business today. Penn State is currently blowing out Indiana, while Michigan and Minnesota both won earlier today. Does this mean that the conference will get eight bids? Well, Joe Lunardi had them projected to get eight before today’s action, so you’d have to believe that it’s an even better bet now. As for that Wisconsin/Ohio State game tomorrow, Lunardi had them both projected to be #9 seeds, so the loser should still be safe. Minnesota has Michigan State, Michigan faces Illinois and Penn State will go on to face Purdue. Will the committee hold it against any of these teams if they lose to that kind of competition? Maybe they just need to show up and play a good game. Time will tell.

There’s a lull in the games here as the Big East and ACC take a break for the news on the East Coast. Things will pick up in a half hour or so.

5:18 PM: Well, KSU fell to Texas down the stretch and the Wildcats are out.

5:06 PM: Texas and Kansas State are in a dogfight. They’re tied with 2:20 to play. The game is on ESPN2 (as a part of its bonus coverage). The Wildcats really need a win to get back in to the bubble conversation.

4:46 PM: Great finish in New York! Villanova’s Reggie Redding drove into the lane and Jerel McNeal completely lost track of Dwayne Anderson who snuck behind him and caught the feed from Redding for the game-winning buzzer-beater. McNeal also made a mental error on Marquette’s previous possession. His team was up one and there was a four second difference between the shot clock and the game clock. He took the ball to the hole with 0:17 remaining and took a shot with 15 ticks left on the game clock. In that situation you have to let the clock run down as much as possible. With the missed shot, he gave Nova an opportunity to get the ball up court and get a good shot. Meanwhile, Arizona is down eight with under two minutes to play. Things are looking rough for the Wildcats. They are really on the hot seat with a loss.

4:38 PM: We had some technical problems for a bit — sorry. In the meantime, Marquette climbed back into the game and has tied it with 2:13 to play (on ESPN). ASU holds a six-point lead over Arizona with eight minutes to play.

3:02 PM: Michigan has jumped all over Iowa, 25-15, midway through the first half. Villanova leads Marquette by 12. The Eagles just aren’t the same team without Dominic James, though that’s not a big surprise.

2:34 PM: Well, Baylor just beat Kansas. I don’t think the Jayhawks are a legit Final Four team. Bracket-wise, I wouldn’t feel good about having them go that far. They’ve lost two of their last three and, although they beat Oklahoma in late February, the Sooners were without Blake Griffin. Michigan/Iowa is about to tip off on ESPN2. Marquette/Villanova is early in the first half as well.

2:14 PM: Wow, Minnesota closed with a 16-4 run to get past Northwestern. I think that win will be enough to get the Gophers in barring a surprise. Joe Lunardi (ESPN Bracketologist) had Minnesota as an #11 seed before the win. Meanwhile, Kansas is in a dogfight with Baylor on ESPN2.

2:05 PM: Digger Phelps said on the pregame show that UConn is a “lock” for a #1 seed and I disagree. Oklahoma already has a better RPI (and a tougher schedule), and Michigan State is just behind the Huskies (with a MUCH tougher schedule). Obviously, if UConn wins the Big East Championship, they’ll get a #1 seed, and they might move ahead of Pitt with a potential win over the Panthers in the semis, but if they lose to Syracuse or Pitt, I think they end up as a #2 seed, especially if the Sooners and/or the Spartans win their conference tournament.

1:48 PM: Providence didn’t really come out to play, and Len Elmore just said the same thing about yesterday’s game against DePaul. Down 14 with under four minutes to play. Good news for the other bubble teams. Minnesota is in a tight one against Northwestern (50-49, 3:46 to play), and the Gophers are really going to be on the hot seat if they lose that one. Miami is just getting spanked by Virginia Tech. I think the Hokies will get a bid if they beat North Carolina tomorrow.

1:34 PM: Kansas is struggling with Baylor but has made a run. It’s tough to get a read on the Jayhawks. They had great back-to-back wins against Oklahoma and Missouri, but then they go and lose to Texas Tech and now they’re trailing Baylor. We’ll see if they can get it straightened out in the second half.

1:27 PM: It was a really sloppy first half in the Providence/Louisville game — 25 combined turnovers. Still, the Friars had to be happy to be in the game after giving the ball away 15 times in the first 20 minutes. Providence really needs this one to get a bid. Luckily for the Friars, Terrence Williams has not played well.

All times ET.

12 PM: Providence vs. #5 Louisville (ESPN)
The Friars are on the hot seat and really need a win against Louisville to earn a spot in the tourney. A loss probably knocks them out.

12 PM: Northwestern vs. Minnesota (Big Ten Network)
The Gophers are on the bubble and they need a win against the feisty Wildcats. If they lose, they’ll really be squirming on Selection Sunday.

12 PM: Virginia Tech vs. Miami (ESPN 360)
Both teams are on the bubble, and the winner probably needs to beat North Carolina in the next round.

2:30 PM: #21 Marquette vs. #13 Villanova (ESPN)
This game will have an effect on the seeding for the Big Dance.

2:30 PM: Iowa vs. Michigan (ESPN2)
The Wolverines can’t lose to the Hawkeyes and expect to get an NCAA berth.

3 PM: Arizona vs. #23 Arizona St. (FSN)
I think this is the game of the day. The Sun Devils can probably end their arch-rival’s season if they can hang a loss on the Wildcats.

3 PM: Texas vs. Kansas St. (ESPN360)
The Wildcats really need a win against Texas to get back into the conversation.

5 PM: Penn St. vs. Indiana (ESPN)
This is pretty much a must-win game for the Nittany Lions.

7 PM: Maryland vs. N.C. State (ESPN2)
The Terps need to make a run in the ACC tourney to get a look from the committee.

7 PM: West Virginia vs. #2 Pittsburgh (ESPN)
The Mountaineers are safely in, but could improve their seeding with a win over Pitt. Meanwhile, the Panthers need to win to secure a #1 seed.

9 PM: USC vs. Cal (FSN)
The Golden Bears are already in, but they can end the Trojans’ season with a win. USC needs to make a run and a win over Cal would really help.

9:30 PM: #20 Syracuse vs. #4 UConn (ESPN)
If the Huskies want a #1 seed, they’re going to have to beat the Orangemen and (probably) make the Big East Championship final.

The bottom line is, if you’re a fan of one of those other teams on the bubble, you want Providence to lose, and lose bad.

This makes things tougher for bubble teams like South Carolina, Penn State, Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton, Saint Mary’s, Florida and Miami — Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four In” and “First Four Out.”