Per ESPN…

Agent Bob Myers confirmed to The Associated Press late Wednesday night that Roy agreed in principle to a contract at the NBA maximum salary. The fifth year is at Roy’s option. Specific numbers won’t be available until the NBA salary cap is set next July. This year a starting max contract would be worth $82 million over the course of five years. However, next year the cap is expected to go down between 5 and 10 percent. That means the value of Roy’s contract will go down, too.

The 25-year-old Roy will earn just under $4 million this season, the final year of his rookie contract. The new deal is likely to net him around $14 million for the 2010-11 season, and he will receive 10.5 percent raises on his base salary each season from 2011-2012 through the end of the deal.

From the start, this looked like it should be an easy deal to negotiate. Brandon Roy is a franchise-type player, so he deserves franchise-type money. And he got it.

His knees are a bit of a concern, but they haven’t slowed him down much in his three-year NBA career. Last season, he averaged 22.6 points, 5.1 assists and 4.7 rebounds in 78 games. While his overall field goal percentage (48.0%) is outstanding for a shooting guard, I’d like to see him continue to improve his three-point accuracy, which was a decent 37.7% last season. However, it’s tough for franchise players to post efficient shooting stats because they’re asked to take so many shots up against the shot clock.

This is obviously a good signing for the Blazers. Now they can turn their attention to re-signing LaMarcus Aldridge.

Players drafted in 2006 are eligible to sign an extension this summer. A couple of months ago, I tried to estimate what some of the big-name guys would sign for.

Brandon Roy, G, Blazers
Age: 24
PER: 24.08
Comparables: Kobe Bryant ($23.0 M), Dwyane Wade ($15.8 M)
The Blazers hit a home run with Roy. In his third season, he averaged 22.6 points, 5.1 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. Moreover, he did it efficiently, shooting a stellar 48% from the field, 38% from long range and 82% from the line. Simply stated, he is one of the league’s best all-around players. I’d be shocked if the Blazers didn’t offer him a max contract, though he may elect to sign a shorter three- or four-year deal (like LeBron and Wade did) to give him more flexibility in the future. (Just to throw a little salt in the wounds, the Bobcats, Bulls, Hawks and Celtics all had a shot at Roy on the night of the draft and passed.)
Value: $14.5 M – $15.5 M per year, depending on the salary cap

Well, count me as mildly shocked. The two sides actually disagreed on the length, but it was the Blazers who reportedly wanted the shorter deal, not Roy. While one would think that the team would want to lock up their superstar for as long as possible, it is a huge investment. Roy does have a history of injury, so if he were to suffer a major setback, it would be a blow to the Blazers’ books.

But as ESPN has reported, the two sides are nearing a deal.

“We’ve had very productive discussions recently and are optimistic we will reach a deal soon,” Roy’s agent, Bob Myers said, according to the newspaper.

According to the report, Roy has been seeking a four-year deal with a player option for the fifth year at a maximum $82 million.

That works out to more than $16 million per year, which is a pretty penny. But a healthy Roy is worth it.

- The Clippers are interested in signing Allen Iverson, and if he’s interested in a big market where he can rehab his image, this might be the place. It looks like Miami isn’t willing to offer much money, but if cash is more important than playoff potential, then the Clips are a good fit.

- According to GM Mitch Kupchak, Lamar Odom and the Lakers aren’t on the same page. The team has offered $8 million per season but Odom wants $10 million, and the contract’s length may be an issue too. Dallas, Miami, Phoenix and Portland (if the Jazz match their offer for Paul Millsap) have emerged as possible landing spots for Odom. He doesn’t have much leverage if the Blazers aren’t interested. The other three teams would have to work out a trade and it would take a good player (Josh Howard, Michael Beasley, etc.) to get the Lakers to bite.

- The Jazz have until February to move Carlos Boozer before the luxury tax implications of keeping both Boozer and Paul Millsap kick in. Right now, it looks like the Jazz are planning to match, even if they have to take out a loan to pay Millsap the huge signing bonus that is a part of his deal with the Blazers. If the Jazz do match, it will be interesting to see if the Blazers have a Plan C after missing out on Hedo Turkoglu and Millsap.

- After a brief flirtation with the Bucks and the Bobcats, Josh Childress is heading back to Greece. The Hawks still hold his rights, and his camp was unable to work out a sign-and-trade with Milwaukee or Charlotte, so Childress’s best option was to play for Olympiakos for another season.

- Brandon Roy wants a fifth year option, but the Blazers have only offered four years. It’s not clear what the Blazers are worried about; I’d want to lock him up for as long as possible.

There is a possible three-team trade brewing…

Sources stressed to ESPN.com that no deal was imminent Thursday and that both Portland and Utah are still evaluating multiple trade scenarios. But two sources with knowledge of the three-team proposal confirmed that there have been substantive talks regarding a trade that would land Boozer in Chicago, Hinrich in Portland and Tyrus Thomas in Utah.

A deal featuring those main components would deliver the elite low-post scorer that the Bulls have been chasing for years in Boozer and furnish Portland with a lead guard in Hinrich that the Blazers are known to rate highly as a potential backcourt mate for Brandon Roy. It’s possible that other players would be added to balance out the transaction from a salary-cap perspective if the three teams elect to take these talks further.

It’s not clear whom the Blazers would have to give up to land Hinrich, but they have cap space so they have some flexibility with regard to how the salaries match up. For the Bulls, this looks like a decent deal depending on whether or not anyone comes over with Boozer. Hinrich and Thomas for Boozer sounds about right.

The Jazz would like to move Boozer, but want to get something in return, and in this case that’s the up-and-coming Thomas. He’s more of a face up forward, so his game should compliment Paul Millsap’s pretty well.

As for the Blazers, they’ve long been rumored to be interested in Hinrich, who can initiate the offense and is a good enough shooter to create space for Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. More importantly, he’s a pesky defender that can cover the other team’s best guard, allowing Roy to get a breather on defense. The Blazers need a point but they don’t really want to go too young at the position. They need veteran leadership and Hinrich fits the bill.

Per TrueHoop…

Although a verbal commitment may be announced sooner, the terms of the contract cannot be finalized until Wednesday when the NBA informs teams what the 2009-10 salary cap will be.

The Orlando Magic’s recent trade for Vince Carter, who has a large salary and plays small forward — which is Turkoglu’s position — made it highly unlikely Turkoglu would be back in Orlando.

The Toronto Raptors expressed interest in Turkoglu, but were constrained by their other efforts to keep Shawn Marion and Carlos Delfino.

Turkoglu, a 6-10 forward from Turkey who played a prominent role in the Magic’s recent trip to the NBA Finals, had been looking for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $50 million.

Five years and $50 million is a lot for Turkoglu, who is already 30 years-old and isn’t particularly efficient statistically. But his game is a pretty good fit for the Blazers, who want to space the court for Brandon Roy. Turkoglu is a good enough shooter to do that, plus he can handle the ball really well for a small forward, which help to take the pressure off of Roy. In fact, with Roy at the two and Turkoglu at the three, there’s enough ball handling there that the team doesn’t have to play with a traditional point guard. This may open up minutes for Rudy Fernandez, who was reportedly upset about the Blazers’ interest in Turkoglu.

The other thing to remember is that the Blazers’ cap space wasn’t going to last. They have to sign both Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to big extensions as soon as this summer and Greg Oden will be eligible for an extension next summer. It was sort of a “use it or lose” it scenario for the Blazers, and owner Paul Allen has never been afraid to spend. They added a versatile, experienced small forward who proved in the playoffs that he knows how to win. $10 million per season is a lot for Turkoglu, but his game should age pretty well, so at worst the Blazers should get quality play for the first three or four years of the deal.

What’s lost in all of this is the fact that Orlando will not be bringing back the core that went to the Finals this year. Chemistry is a rare quality and the Magic may rue the day that they brought in Vince Carter and waved goodbye to Turkoglu. After all, there were two overtime games in the first four, and the Lakers won both. Had those games gone the other way, the Magic would have led the series 3-1 with Game 5 at home to clinch the title. They didn’t need to tinker this much, and GM Otis Smith may eventually regret it.

Around this time last year, I tried to estimate the kind of contracts the big name players from the class of 2004 and 2005 would sign, and here’s how I fared:

All in all, I think I did a pretty good job. Of the 12 players that signed a contract last summer, I correctly predicted the range for seven and was within $1.5 million for the other five. Granted, I underestimated what the Lakers would give Vujacic, but I find him so annoying that I have a tough time objectively determining his worth. (Though it should be noted that he didn’t do anything this season to justify $5.0 million per season.)

This year, I’m going to list the top names from the class of ‘06 to try to determine what kind of extension they’ll get if their current teams choose to lock them up this summer instead of letting them hit restricted free agency in 2010. (I’ll tackle the restricted free agents of the class of ‘05 in my free agency preview, which will run on 6/29.)

Due to the economy and the unwillingness of most owners to spend, the summer of 2009 promises to be tougher for free agents than years past, so we may see a few players stubbornness get the best of them. One executive predicted a “nuclear winter” of sorts, so at the very least, it will be interesting.

So here are the top players from the class of ‘06 and my best estimate of the kind of money they’ll command. I’ll list their age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER), along with a few comparables.

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On the heels of what many are labeling the greatest first round NBA series of all-time, there’s already been a lot of talk about how good the recently exited Chicago Bulls can be next year. And with good reason: Derrick Rose is already on his way to becoming one of the game’s best point guards, Ben Gordon (despite the fact that he plays worse defense than the 2008 Detroit Lions) is a lights-out scorer, and Joakim Noah can do it all from a defensive and rebounding perspective.

But perhaps the most intriguing player in this year’s Celtics-Bulls classis series was Tyrus Thomas. His play was a bit of a revelation in the series, as he consistently knocked down the 18-foot jump shot NBA 4s need to make, and his athleticism continues to be off the charts. He’s got the potential to be an all-star.

There is a saying in the NFL that it takes three years to truly evaluate a draft class, and to a lesser extent this is true in the NBA as well. Since Thomas and Boston’s stud PG Rajon Rondo are both from the 2006 NBA Draft class, how about we take a look at who the top 10 picks were, and who the revised top 5 should be?

2006 Draft (the actual top 10)

1. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors

2. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers

3. Adam Morrison, Charlotte Bobcats

4. Tyrus Thomas, Chicago Bulls

5. Shelden Williams, Atlanta Hawks

6. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers

7. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves

8. Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies

9. Patrick O’Bryant, Golden State Warriors

10. Saer Sene, Seattle SuperSonics

2006 Draft (the should-have-been top 5)

1. Brandon Roy

2. Rudy Gay

3. Tyrus Thomas

4. Rajon Rondo

5. LaMarcus Aldridge

The ’06 class has hardly set the world on fire in its first three years, with its only redeeming value being that they’ve featured second-round gems like Utah’s Paul Millsap, Cleveland’s Daniel Gibson and Boston’s Leon Powe. But in terms of potential star power, don’t stick a fork in 2006 yet – all 5 of my revised top picks could end up as all-stars.

If the teams could do it over, who do you think they’d take?

Craig Sager conducted an interesting interview with Ron Artest on Wednesday. In it, Artest says that Brandon Roy is the “best player” he’s played against, including Kobe and LeBron.

Artest: “They are doing a good job, they are well coached. (Brandon) Roy is probably the best player I’ve played against, to me he is the best shooting guard. Not on defense now, defense is kind of suspect. He’s the best player I’ve played against.”

Sager: “He’s a better player than Kobe Bryant, better than LeBron James?”

Artest: “He’s the best player I’ve played against.”

Sager: “Are you saying that just because he’s your opponent in this series?”

Artest: “No, he is. He’s the best player I’ve played against, outside from a guy from my hood in Queensbridge, a guy named Mike Chafley. He went to jail a couple of years when he was 15 or 16 years old, but he was the best player I played against and now it’s Roy.”

You’ve got to love Artest’s flair. His team is primed for a matchup with the Lakers and he gives Kobe bulletin board material. (Like he needs the extra motivation.) And I love the reference to Mike Chafley in Queensbridge…did Artest play him before or after he went to jail? If it was before, then he’s saying that some 14 or 15 year-old is the best player he’s ever played against. If it was after Chafley got out of jail, why isn’t this cat in the NBA?

Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:

If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?

Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.

We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.

HONORABLE MENTION

Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.

Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.

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No one can fault the job that Portland GM Kevin Pritchard has done so far. In 2005, when he was the Blazers’ interim coach, he reportedly advised then-GM John Nash and Steve Patterson to draft Chris Paul at #3, but the duo instead decided to trade the pick and ended up with Martell Webster at #6. He was promoted to assistant GM in 2006, and was involved in a series of deals that resulted in the acquisition of the draft rights of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. In 2007, he was promoted to general manager. That summer, in addition to drafting Greg Oden, he turned Zach Randolph into a trade exception that he used to steal Rudy Fernandez from the Phoenix Suns.

Other than an ill-advised threat to sue anyone that tried to sign Darius Miles, it’s tough to second-guess anything that Pritchard has done in Portland.

But what if he had drafted Kevin Durant instead of Greg Oden? How much better off would the franchise be with Durant on the roster?

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