Here are my top 5 picks for Week 9 against the spread. As usual, fade at will…
Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1), 8:30PM ET, Monday
This game set up nicely for the Steelers, who have won four in a row, are coming off a bye and are playing a Denver team that was thumped last Sunday by the Ravens. But I fully expect Josh McDaniels and the Broncos to learn from their loss last week to Baltimore and rebound on Monday night. Denver is always a tough place to play – just ask the Cowboys and Patriots, whom the Broncos beat earlier this year at Invesco Field. I don’t expect Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno to have a lot of success against Pittsburgh’s excellent defense, but I do think Denver’s defense will force a couple turnovers to set the offense up in good field position. Linebacker Elvis Dumervil has been a beast this season and Ben Roethlisberger has always had trouble holding onto the ball. While some will start to doubt the Broncos after last week, I’m holding strong that this is a good football team and will prove it with a small upset Monday night. Odds: Steelers –3. Prediction: Broncos 20, Steelers 17.
Texans (5-3) at Colts (7-0), 1:00PM ET
This game has trap written all over it. The Texans have won three straight and four of their last five, while the Colts finally looked beatable last week in their 18-14 win over the 49ers. Your head and gut tell you that Houston will be able to hang with Indy this weekend and at the very least cover the 9-point spread, if not win outright. But don’t be fooled – the Colts are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Colts and have covered in six of those 10 games. While the ATS trends aren’t impressive, Peyton Manning should have his way with an improving, but suspect Houston defense at home. With Bob Sanders sidelined again, the Texans should score, but it’s not like Indy isn’t used to not having Sanders on the field. This one will be a little bit of a shoot out, but I see the Colts winning by a decent margin in the end. Odds: Colts –9. Prediction: Colts 35, Texans 24.
The Chiefs have suspended running back Larry Johnson two weeks for conduct detrimental to the team after he took a shot at head coach Todd Haley via his Twitter page last Sunday night. He also used a homophobic slur to degrade another Twitter user that had criticized him for his off-field troubles.
Kansas City is on a bye this week, so Johnson might only miss one game. But during the next two weeks, the Chiefs will evaluate backup Jamaal Charles and then see how Johnson responds to the punishment.
LJ should take a page out of Brandon Marshall’s playbook and respond favorably to his suspension. When the Broncos suspended Marshall earlier this season, he apologized and then when he returned, he was on his best behavior. He hasn’t complained since and now he’s on an undefeated team that is considering re-signing him to a long-term extension.
Granted, Marshall and Johnson’s situations are a little different. LJ isn’t playing for a new contract like Marshall is and even if he does turn into a choirboy, the Chiefs have zero shot of making the playoffs (unlike the Broncos). That said, Johnson owes it to his teammates and his organization not to be a distraction, especially considering that he isn’t even producing on the field. He does his team and himself more harm if he’s a malcontent then if he just owns up to what he did and move on.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens. The smart money is on Johnson being released either during or after the season. The Chiefs will probably make him suffer the rest of the year in Kansas City and then dispose of him in the offseason. Given his age, lack of production and off field issues, there’s just no reason to keep him in a Chiefs uniform.
1. Royal is making his presence felt in other facets of the game
After hauling in 91 receptions for 980 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie last year, Eddie Royal has largely been a bust in his second year. But he proved Monday night that he could contribute in other areas, especially on special teams. He returned a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the first quarter and a 71-yard punt return in the second quarter. As Denver’s offense sputtered in the first half, Royal provided a major spark.
2. The Broncos’ offensive line has been fantastic
Kyle Orton has turned out to be a great fit for Josh McDaniels’ offense, but he owes a lot of his success to his O-line. They’ve protected him like Fort Knox all season and did so again Monday night. Orton had all day to throw and was accurate when his receivers broke free from defenders. The Broncos’ front five continues to be one of the better units in the league.
3. The Chargers’ defense is a mess
One would have thought Ron Rivera would have fixed some of San Diego’s defensive issues during the team’s bye week. But the same problems that the Bolts had heading into the bye were evident again tonight: They couldn’t generate any pressure, they didn’t tackle well and they couldn’t come up with the big stop when they needed it. The Broncos did whatever they wanted offensively in the second half.
The Patriots’ 20-17 overtime loss to the Broncos in Denver on Sunday is a perfect example of how the stat sheet doesn’t tell the whole story.
Tom Brady threw for 215 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions on 19-of-33 passing today. That’s a solid stat line and if someone were only looking at those numbers, they’d attribute New England’s loss to something other than its quarterback.
But all is not right with Brady. His offensive line gave him plenty of time today and yet he never got into a rhythm in the passing game, which isn’t the first time I’ve written that about Brady in 2009. He never seemed to get on the same page as his receivers and he overthrew an open Randy Moss (who finished with only one catch) at least twice.
Brady has always been a fiery player, but he seems to express his frustrations more openly this season. It’s almost like he’s trying too hard to be the player he was before his knee injury and isn’t allowing the game to come to him. He knows he’s missing open receivers and he’s not shaking the bad plays off as quickly as he once did. His confidence seems to be down and it has made the Pats incredibly vulnerable.
That said, New England’s loss in Denver today could hardly be pinned solely on Brady missing the mark in the passing game. Kyle Orton shredded the Patriots’ pass defense for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 35-of-48 passing. Say what you want about Orton, but he’s 26-12 as a starter despite having only two 300-plus passing games over his career. That’s a testament to how well he manages the game and limits mistakes.
It was good to see Eddie Royal (10 receptions, 90 yards) finally snap out of his early season funk and turn in a complete game. If he can build off this, he’ll give Orton another weapon in the passing game and help take attention off of Brandon Marshall, who once again came up huge with a fourth quarter touchdown.
If the Broncos could crash at any point and their 5-0 start would be nothing but a distant memory. But if their defense continues to play as well as it has, then they’ll cruise to an AFC West title, which seemed highly unlikely just five weeks ago.
Bucs’ OC Greg Olson wants Caddy to be the featured back. Williams has been productive, but he’s injury-prone, and if the Bucs start giving him 25 touches a game, he’s probably going to break down. This is bad news for Derrick Ward in the short term, but in the long term, it might be a good thing. Ward could be the primary ballcarrier to close the season.
Brandon Marshall seems to be happy again. It’s amazing what a 4-0 start and a sick, game-winning TD catch will do for a guy. Marshall’s talent is undeniable, and it seems like he and HC Josh McDaniels have put the ill will behind them and have found a way to work together. Marshall’s upside is still limited somewhat by Kyle Orton (just ask Eddie Royal owners), but he has been productive of late and has worked his way back to being an every-week start in most formats.
MBIII is back at practice. The Cowboys face the Chiefs this week, so it’s a nice matchup for the entire offense. Barber should be in most starting lineups, but Tashard Choice is likely to see a lot of work to keep Barber fresh. Choice has been productive, so there’s no reason not to use him.
Frank Gore on track to return in Week 7. The 49ers have a bye next week, so it looks like Sunday may be the last week that Glen Coffee is startable. He has a nice matchup with the 25th-ranked Falcons’ rush defense and should see plenty of work. Regardless, Gore owners should keep Coffee stashed as a handcuff.
If there’s one thing that continues to ring true time and time again is that winning is a cure-all in sports.
Take Brandon Marshall and the Denver Broncos for example.
Just over a month ago, Marshall was suspended for acting like a child during a training camp practice in which he punted balls instead of handing them to a ball boy, swatted down passes instead of catching them, and was an overall distraction to his teammates.
Fast forward to the scene following the Broncos’ exciting 17-10 win over the Cowboys on Sunday in which Marshall walked up to the podium during Josh McDaniels’ post game speech and embraced the first-year head coach and you wonder what the hell is going on in Denver.
“You never heard me say anything about him coaching or what he brings to the organization,” Marshall said.
“Our team loves him, we love him and I think he loves being part of this team,” added McDaniels.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Broncos have opened discussions with receiver Brandon Marshall about a contract extension.
The potential new deal would put Marshall’s salary more in line with some of the game’s other highly paid receivers.
Due to the fact he has been unable to get a long-term deal, Marshall has been clinging to the hopes that Denver would deal him. But now, in a new approach, the deal Denver might make is not for Marshall, but rather with Marshall.
The fact that they are even talking is an encouraging sign, sources said, and there is some optimism that a deal could be struck that could keep Marshall in Denver long term.
It’s a little odd that the Broncos would open contract extension talks with Marshall right after suspending him for insubordination. One would have thought that they would have waited until the season started to see if Marshall continued his good behavior before talking about possibly paying him like Larry Fitzgerald.
But this is a good sign that the Broncos and Marshall will eventually get something done. Denver can’t afford to lose another prime offensive talent and once Marshall gets paid, he has nothing to complain about. (Until he demands a trade to a contender, of course.)
Boy, this has worked out about as well as Marshall owners could have hoped (so far). Marshall still has a few hurdles to overcome, but his attitude has reportedly been great, so he is in line to play a significant role in Week 1. I think he’s a safe start against a very suspect Bengals team. He’s still somewhat of a risky player to have on your roster, but this is a huge turnaround from where his stock was headed 7-10 days ago.
According to a report by the Denver Post, the Broncos have lifted disgruntled receiver Brandon Marshall’s suspension.
The Broncos formally turned in the paperwork to the league office Sunday to lift wide receiver Brandon Marshall’s suspension.
Marshall was at the team’s Dove Valley complex for meetings and took part in a practice as well.
We’ll see if Marshall can turn this issue into a positive one and get his career back on track. It’s a shame for a player to have that much potential and waste on such a horrible attitude.
Of course, Marshall could have gone into training camp after his hip healed and been a model citizen in order to avoid all of this. But he didn’t – he decided to act like a child and sink his trade value to an all-time low.
Time will tell if the light bulb went off in his head.
Is it just me or was this a fairly useless clip? The only possible nugget of information is that the Broncos are working harder behind the scenes to move Marshall than they’ve been letting on. (But isn’t this fairly intuitive given all the trouble Marshall has caused over the last couple of weeks?) This is supposed to be the latest news on Marshall, but he only rehashes everything we already know (that the Jets are interested, that the Broncos are interested, and that the money could be a hold up).
Schefter says that if the Jets offer the Broncos a package that meets their expectations, then the Broncos will move Marshall. Isn’t this the crux of any trade in any sport? One team has a player and is given an offer that they think is worthwhile, so they pull the trigger on the trade. This isn’t very insightful.
How about discussing exactly what the Broncos are looking for? Is it still a 1st and a 4th, or have they changed their tune? What kind of contract is Marshall expecting if he’s moved? Is the money reasonable or would his asking price dissuade potential suitors?
The bottom line is that, given a camera, a backdrop and a satellite hookup, Anthony Stalter and I could have produced the exact same clip without the sources available to Schefter. It’s almost as if ESPN called up Schefter and told him he was on the air in five minutes and ignored his pleas for more time to call his sources, so he could only speak in generalities.
Offseason Additions: Kyle Orton (QB); Brian Dawkins (S); Andre’ Goodman (CB); Renaldo Hill (S); Jabar Gaffney (WR); LaMont Jordan (RB); Correll Buckhalter (RB); Andra Davis (LB); Chris Simms (QB); J.J. Arrington (RB); Brandon Llyod (WR); Ronald Fields (DT); Nick Greisen (LB).
Offseason Losses: Jay Cutler (QB); Dre’ Bly (CB); Erik Pears (RB); Michael Pittman (RB); Nate Webster (LB); Jamie Winborn (LB); Ebenezer Ekuban (DE); Darrell Jackson (WR); Dewayne Robertson (DT); Patrick Ramsey (QB).
Player to Watch:Knowshown Moreno, RB.
Moreno will excel as a pass catcher in Josh McDaniels’ offense and should find plenty of running room behind the Broncos’ solid offensive line. He has outstanding vision and has picked up the art of pass-blocking. Although he’s been limited the past few weeks after suffering a MCL sprain in Denver’s preseason opener, Moreno is on track to play in Week 1. As long as he stays healthy, he could emerge as the Broncos’ every down back.
Team Strength: Led by tackles Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris, the Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in football. As a rookie, Clady demonstrated outstanding run-blocking skills and strength at the point of attack. Harris isn’t as athletically gifted as Clady, but he surrendered just 2.5 sacks last year and has excellent technique. Center Casey Wiegmann and guards Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are solid pass-blockers, although they could struggle with run-blocking as the team transitions out of the old zone-blocking scheme.
